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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

Old 19th Mar 2016, 21:04
  #201 (permalink)  
 
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This may be a daft observation/question but:

From the cctv video and the 3D flight path renderings I was expecting to see a large impact crater (for want of a better word). The ground/runway seems remarkably intact from the helicopter film. Is this normal and my expectation is wrong or does this suggest some breakup prior to impact (of the then smaller lower energy sections)
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 21:15
  #202 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Syntax Error
Repeated messages of Turbulence on approach, and Windshear, with plenty of fuel, there needs to be some digging into company culture, and not just a stupid discussion of how dangerous the 737 is in the Go Around!
Of course there could have been some catastrophic failure, but most likely the first part of the Swiss Cheese, is why did they attempt the approach at all?

Diversion could have been outside Russia too, Turkey, Georgia, Baku, there was enough fuel, head ache yes, but also alive to tell the story!

In the end this ends up with pilot given the blame, while it most likely was his training and company culture that coached them to encourage these actions, we had this with the Polish aircraft who attempted the NPA in Russia few years ago, pressure from the non flying forces.

How many here, would attempt this approach when reported Moderate Turbulene, Windshear on Runway If so maybe you should be fired straight away!

The OVC was my bad, sorry, tempo brain freeze, still the Turbulence and Windshear was the main points of never starting this approach in the first place!
Good point considered turbulence was reported as SEVERE on landing with a Moderate wind shear ,was given on the frequency by an atc
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 21:20
  #203 (permalink)  
 
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The ground/runway seems remarkably intact from the helicopter film. Is this normal and my expectation is wrong or does this suggest some breakup prior to impact (of the then smaller lower energy sections)
I din't see any helicopter film that would seem to be of sufficient quality and coverage to arrive at conclusion whether there was a crater or not. But there is also a video available that shows aircraft hitting ground pretty much intact - you can recognize all 3 lights (in triangular fashion) and aircraft at high bank. Also for mid-air break up to occur aircraft needs sufficient altitude for that to occur. Mid-air break ups do happen occasionally - usually when aircraft falls down uncontrollably for tens of thousands of feet (say emerging from an icing event or CB) but there is zero indication here that any mid air break up took place and like I said the available video contradicts it.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 21:27
  #204 (permalink)  
 
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Just one question....having in mind someone said according FlyDubai this aerodrome/rwy is only a "captains landing" and the accent of the ATC clip speaking pilot is not spanish for sure, could we suggest PIC was doing both Flying and Comms?
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 21:39
  #205 (permalink)  
 
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No, that accent seems typical of Spanish people speaking english
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:01
  #206 (permalink)  
 
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This is clearly a botched G/A into a stall.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:01
  #207 (permalink)  
 
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Until this incident, I had no idea that some ANSPs reported wind speeds in m/sec. Surely, if airspeeds are in knots, W/V should be reported in the same units?
Approaches that are 'thrown away' at 5-6+Km from touchdown would imply serious Wx conditions.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:05
  #208 (permalink)  
 
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In the (my) usual manner of judging likelyhood by what seems to have happened this has all the hallmarks of the classic B737 dual coupled approach to manual g/a pitch trim gotcha. It's just such a good fit it's hard to imagine another scenario.
Walks, talks and sounds like a duck I'm afraid.
So my guess it's a duck but time will tell.

But why on earth hang around for 2 hours in the hold when there seems little chance of improvement and there are viable diversions not far away?

Surely 2 hrs in the hold tells you something....?
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:15
  #209 (permalink)  
 
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It's just such a good fit it's hard to imagine another scenario.

The question is why, after a successful 'practice' 2 hours earlier, would the 2nd one be a cock up? And when commenced from quote a height with no panic?
For interest was the captain ex-Helios? And the F/O ex-Fuetura?
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:17
  #210 (permalink)  
 
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This is clearly a botched G/A into a stall.
Well that's sorted, then. What's for dinner?
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:36
  #211 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by JanetFlight
Just one question....having in mind someone said according FlyDubai this aerodrome/rwy is only a "captains landing" and the accent of the ATC clip speaking pilot is not spanish for sure, could we suggest PIC was doing both Flying and Comms?
I'm not from either country (Greece/Spain) and I think for anyone not from either country it would be difficult to distinguish between the accents especially from a low quality recording.
Also capt landing does not mean capt has to be PF for approach, could be monitored app.
All speculation and not really relevant.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:42
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Guys: just one thing: I read somewhere that they went around like +3nm from the Runway Threshold, is that right ?

If it is true, then, at a 3 deg GP, 3nm give us something around 1000FT AAL...

At this altitude, no NOSE UP trim has been added in case of a Dual Channel Approach !

The Acft starts trimming around 400 ft RA.

I'm much more inclined to think that those guys ended up with a high nose up attitude during the Go Around (Low ALW, High Trust Setting, Maybe Somatogravic illusion), stalled and lost control of the aircraft.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:47
  #213 (permalink)  
 
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@ Mr. Optimistic: So far as the evidence thus far - strong and gusty winds, which likely made it impossible (or at least very difficult) to achieve a "Stabilized" approach (speed stable, guidance needles centered, etc.) at the required point(s) (500/1000 feet above ground).

Doing a go-around because the approach "goes wrong" is (or should be) a routine procedure. And indeed this crew did one with no problem. The question is, what caused the second GA to deteriorate into a crash?
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 22:57
  #214 (permalink)  
 
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The ILS glide slope for this runway is very flat at 2.67 degrees. The Jepp chart also has warnings about turbulence and windshear on final.
Cat 1 minima is 480(200)- 700m RVR
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 23:08
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The question is, what caused the second GA to deteriorate into a crash?
The investigative boards are not required to answer questions "why?" (as far as human performance is concerned), instead they want to answer questions "what happened?". If there are some contributing factors (poor training, inadequate rest, etc.) they will mention it but rarely a cause-effect connection can be established.

It is a known thing in aviation - a second attempt at landing at the same airport (due to marginal weather) has very poor odds at succeeding at least as far as General Aviation is concerned. Pilots are strongly encouraged to go somewhere else.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 23:30
  #216 (permalink)  
 
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Just pull up the ATC recording of the taxi out of DXB and compare the voices.

Taxi out is always FO on comms.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 23:48
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Originally Posted by XLNL
I'm not from either country (Greece/Spain) and I think for anyone not from either country it would be difficult to distinguish between the accents especially from a low quality recording.
Also capt landing does not mean capt has to be PF for approach, could be monitored app.
All speculation and not really relevant.
The person speaking at least in first couple of minutes has characteristic Cypriot English accent.
I am not sure though same person speaks at the end of the transcript. Probably not.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 23:58
  #218 (permalink)  
 
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Accents mean nothing. I'm a New Zealander who sounds like an American, due to a comprehensive American education in Japan. You can't judge a book by its cover, I'm afraid.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 00:02
  #219 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by negativeclimb
No, that accent seems typical of Spanish people speaking english
The accent of the person heard here at the beginning is definitely that of a Cypriot. Haven't heard the end yet.
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Old 20th Mar 2016, 00:15
  #220 (permalink)  
 
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@log0008 - Basic aerodynamic question. Can a wing stall at any airspeed? Answer - Yes, a wing can stall at any airspeed. All that matters, for a stall, is angle of attack. We don't know that THIS aircraft stalled - but the recorded speed tells us nothing one way or the other on that subject.

@ olasek - I used "cause" in the exact same way the NTSB uses the word in "probable cause." In virtually every report they publish, except those where no cause can be determined. Sometimes "cause" means simply "what happened," which is how I used it in this case. But sometimes the NTSB has been very - emphatic - in discussing "why" something happened, if they feel it involves a serious systemic safety issue (CRM, faulty maintenance practices, VFR flight into IMC, etc.)
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