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Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island

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Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island

Old 6th Aug 2015, 07:13
  #401 (permalink)  
 
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Malaysian misinformation saga continues

What is the rational of the Malaysian government, if there is any, to distort the findings and speak about positive confirmation that the part is from MH370, when in fact no such positive identification has taken place, and the French only speak about strong presumption - "très fortes présomptions" - based on the conjecture that no other 777 flaperons are known to be lost in the area? The Malaysians sound like amateurs. Is that the same government that was leading the investigation until now? Note that neither the French, the Chinese or the Australians, parties who all had experts present at the initial examination of the flaperon as well, made such fallacious statements.

edit:
and then, OF COURSE, the idiotic press en suite, reiterating the fallacy as if it were fact.
Réunion debris belongs to MH370, Malaysian PM confirms ? as it happened | World news | The Guardian
And then we get the sheeple here with the inflationary posts "why don't you accept the facts, you conspiracy nut", not knowing the differences between a fallacy, a hypothesis and a fact.
It's hopeless, pure madness...

Last edited by Interflug; 6th Aug 2015 at 08:00.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 07:51
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Originally Posted by Interflug View Post
and then, OF COURSE, the idiotic press en suite, reiterating the fallacy as if it were fact.
You need to re-read your sources. The "fact" that the press are reporting is simply that the Malaysian PM has made an announcement to that effect.

This (from the same link that you quoted) doesn't sound like unquestioning acceptance to me:

According to the French prosecutor in Paris, the investigators’ conclusion remains only a “very strong presumption” based on Boeing’s confirmation that it was a 777, and “specific technical characteristics” communicated by the Malaysian Airlines engineers in Kuala Lumpur.

That seems to suggest no definitive serial numbers have been immediately found on the part, but it could potentially mean that some part of the maintenance regime over its years of service have left an identifying mark.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 08:24
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It's disappointing that they say the identification is based on vague “specific technical characteristics” instead of saying exactly what they found. I guess we'll just have to wait. Meantime, the controlled ditching theory is looking strong. Tracy Lamb, aviation safety consultant and former Boeing 737 pilot: “It looks like the flaperon was broken off by the engine pod ripping off as it was dragged through the water on the initial impact.” I favored the uncontrolled phugoid/spiral impact, based on the evidence of fuel exhaustion, and figured the lack of debris was due to the 9 day delay before they started searching off Australia, plus the vast area.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 09:14
  #404 (permalink)  
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Aerobat

you can surely exclude 360,s since an nearly "stationary" aircraft would be recognized by doppler effect , but - as far i understand it - the cannot say anything about what path the aircraft took between the seven pings , what altitude it had at all and what speed it had between the pings .
This was discounted on the previous thread. Had the aircraft been doing 360s, it would have had to be heading away at every ping to avoid high Doppler. Given the the Times for each ping was unknown to the pilots we can assume the aircraft Did not make several orbits - one possibly, more,unlikely.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 13:49
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The absence of any cell phone call / SMS as plane crossed back over the Malaysian peninsula suggests passengers / crew were incapacitated by that time.

240 pax and crew. Figure well over 100 cell phones using a variety of carriers. Phone reception is low quality, but intermittently present around FL200. Surely someone would have got an SMS or call out.

So I suspect all but the perpetrator (s) were incapacitated by hypoxia by this time. There were early reports that plane climbed to FL430 after transponder and ACARS ceased - not sure if this was ever verified. Even FL350 will do it with packs off.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 14:05
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I did put it in inverted commas, and yes it broke up but there were very large pieces ISTR.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvtYtvd5x60

A controlled ditching surely would give even bigger pieces (hmm, completely dependent on sea state - I guess you might control it but the sea is so bad that's largely irrelevant) - somewhere between the Ethiopian 767 and the A320 on the Hudson.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 14:36
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slats11

The absence of any cell phone call / SMS as plane crossed back over the Malaysian peninsula suggests passengers / crew were incapacitated by that time. ]
Not really, they would have no need to make a phone call if they thought the flight was doing as it should.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 14:38
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This was reported by multiple media sources back last year.

Malaysia Airlines MH370 co-pilot's phone 'was on and made contact with network tower' 30 minutes after plane turned around - Asia - World - The Independent

The mobile phone belonging to the co-pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was switched on and made contact with a network tower 30 minutes after the plane is believed to have turned back, it has been reported.

A US official, citing information from Malaysian investigators, has told CNN that a network communications tower in Penang, Malaysia, detected first officer Fariq Abdul Hamid’s mobile as it searched for signal.

The official repeated the claims of Malaysia’s acting transport minister, Hishammuddin Hussein, that despite reports at the weekend there was no evidence the phone actually tried to make a call.

===========
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: Co-pilot's cell on, U.S. official says - CNN.com

The official told CNN's Pamela Brown on Monday that a cell-phone tower in Penang, Malaysia -- about 250 miles from where the flight's transponder last sent a signal -- detected the first officer's phone searching for service roughly 30 minutes after authorities believe the plane made a sharp turn westward.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 14:44
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Quote: Not really, they would have no need to make a phone call if they thought the flight was doing as it should.


If this was a deliberate, well planned incident (as it seems it may have been), the perpetrator would probably have considered the possibility of people having the moving map on their screens and therefore starting to raise questions when they saw the flight begin to veer off course.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 14:44
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There was mention of the flaperon having had a date on it consistent with the construction of the actual aircraft, which I believe was circa 2002.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 15:07
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A controlled ditching surely would give even bigger pieces (hmm, completely dependent on sea state - I guess you might control it but the sea is so bad that's largely irrelevant) - somewhere between the Ethiopian 767 and the A320 on the Hudson.
If you assume a 'successful' ditching, there would be very little actual debris - basically one really big piece (the aircraft), and some smaller pieces such as the engines and control surfaces. The engines are heavy and would sink straight away, the aircraft itself might float for an extended time (depending on the degree of damage from the ditching) but would eventually sink leaving little if any trace. The wild card would be the control surfaces that ripped off during the ditching - they are lightweight and could float indefinitely.

Which, interestingly enough, is exactly what we currently have.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 15:28
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If you assume a 'successful' ditching, there would be very little actual debris - basically one really big piece (the aircraft), and some smaller pieces such as the engines and control surfaces. The engines are heavy and would sink straight away, the aircraft itself might float for an extended time (depending on the degree of damage from the ditching) but would eventually sink leaving little if any trace. The wild card would be the control surfaces that ripped off during the ditching - they are lightweight and could float indefinitely.

Which, interestingly enough, is exactly what we currently have.
I quibble with the word "exact"

We only have one piece of control surface and it could have departed in any number of ways.

Now if we find more surfaces like this than maybe we have a hint
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 15:47
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Deployed or not?

I'm waiting to see if the DGA lab can determine anything about the deployment state of this flap. Deployed might mean that the flight crew was in control of the aircraft at the point of ditching. On the other hand, if it was deployed earlier, it could mean that the plane was traveling slower and in a higher drag and fuel consumption configuration and that the range and calculated ditching point are incorrect.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 16:11
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Now if we find more surfaces like this than maybe we have a hint
There are not too many "surfaces like this" on a 777. The landing gear doors maybe, the ailerons. Not too many of the parts are sandwich composites, not too many paerts are small and strong enough to basically stay in one piece, and not too many are likely to rip off in a controlled ditching.

Can the emerg pax oxy sys be deactivated so it won't fall down at the preset alt ?
Knowing that they do not fall down when you switch off all electrics... There should be a CB you can pull to prevent activation. You may however still release each of them them manually, if you have the right tool (the FA should have it), so definitely blocking them from a closed cockpit is not possible. Crew has separate portable oxygen supply which allows them to walk through the cabin and activate them one by one.
However, pax oxy is designed to allow a 20 Minute descend, not a 7 hrs cruise. I have no idea whether your wakeup time is in any way depending on the time you were unconscious due to hypoxia, or whether you will always wake up once you have enough oxygen supply.

Ethiopian did not do a controlled ditching. It hit the sea at high speed in a level attitude and broke up whilst the Capt fought with the hijacker.
It especially hit shallow water with submerged rocks. Many pieces of the wreakage did not sink, as it had ground contact.
I sometimes wonder how certain information is created, but that captain was joining a TV show the evening after the crash (I watched it that night) and explained in detail, that he was unable to estimate the altitude without clear reference, and tried to keep one wing low in order to notice when he really touches the water. The next day he was celebrated as an hero in the press. Strangely this version never made it into the official report, and the guy completely disappeared (contrary to Sully).

From a stricly logical point of view, if you take a lot of effort to let the aircraft disappear, you will probably go all the way to ditch it as intact as possible to minimize the risk of anything being found. If you do not care about that, why not crash it on the spot north of malaysia? So if the aircraft was deliberatly flown for 7 hours as far away from the shore as possible, a controlled ditching makes perfect sense to complete the plan.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 16:34
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Differential Pressure

Would it be fair to say that even a fully intact fuselage would still create a debris field as any area with air pockets would rupture as it sinks when the differential pressure exceeds the design limitations? With a differential pressure limit of around 9 psi + 14.5 psi at sea level, you wouldn't get past a depth of 60ft before areas begin to implode and release contents.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 20:02
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you ever try using phone at altitude, hits too many cells, and they shut off the service"billing purposes"
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 21:58
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Nonsense... Press quotes that add to you post

"dissonant" (official) "comments infuriate"...to say the least,

*Headline:"Plane window recovered from Reunion Island, Malaysian transport minister says"
*(Published August 6th 2015)
**HEADLINE: "Differing Message on 777 Part frustrates Flight 350 Families"
**AP (published August 6th, 2015 20:55 UT)

Selected text...:
"A Malaysian team has collected other plane debris including a window and some aluminum foil on Reunion Island near where a flaperon was found last week, Malaysia’s transport minister said on Thursday.

However, Liow Tiong Lai says he can’t confirm whether the debris belongs to Flight 370, which vanished on March 8, 2014 with 239 people on board. “I can only ascertain that it’s plane debris.”

"Authorities from France, the U.S. and Australia have stopped short of full confirmation the debris is actually from the missing plane. Liow reaffirmed the prime minister’s comments on Thursday and said differences with other countries amount to “a choice of words.”

"They want to continue with additional tests. We respect their decision," Liow said of the French. "From our first observation, the color tone and all maintenance records that we have, we know. Our records show that it's the same as MH370."

"He said there are "many other technical details that I do not have to reveal" but that confirm the part is from Flight 370."

"The confirmation from Malaysian Prime Miniser Najib Razak that the flaperon was from MH370 has been met with skepticism and anger ..."

"Ross Tapsell, a Malaysia expert at the Australian National University, said he suspects Najib was trying to distract Malaysians from a corruption scandal. On Monday, Malaysia's anti-corruption agency said that $700 million in Najib's personal bank accounts came from donations, not from a debt-ridden state investment fund."


*Full story with a less than accurate video:
Plane window recovered from Reunion Island, Malaysian transport minister says | Fox News

**Full Story with more details...:
AP
**My Way News - Differing messages on 777 part frustrate Flight 370 families
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 22:11
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Agree with Severe Clear. I have heard the French have not confirmed this piece is from the Malaysian aircraft. They have a high suspicion but at this point in time they are not certain. The Malaysian's took it upon themselves to make the announcement.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 22:26
  #419 (permalink)  
 
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On BBC Radio 4 News this evening it was reported that France has announced that a new search for the missing aircraft will be made around Reunion.
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Old 6th Aug 2015, 23:02
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The description of the "other aircraft debris found" is "pieces of windows, seat cushions and aluminum". Sounds a lot like the sewing machine piece and tea kettle, and the seat cushion the beachcomber said he burned. In other words, he's just repeating stuff from the news.
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