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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 4th Jan 2015, 13:38
  #1181 (permalink)  
 
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Slats

That about says it all. Fate is of our own creation and she is now very much the hunter.

Accident statistics prove only that HAL mostly has the situation under control but when he has an off day, the operators are less and less capable of doing anything about it.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 14:04
  #1182 (permalink)  
 
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glendalegoon, try using a decent sized screen & not an i-phone



slats11 , good (but depressing to realise ) summary
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 14:26
  #1183 (permalink)  
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bunk ex:
I assume their ACARS was working that day.
Air Asia A320s as far as I know are not ACARS equipped
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 14:40
  #1184 (permalink)  
 
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Slats

Regarding barometric pressure changes in a strong up drought. I am more concerned about the possible temperature change if entering a strong updraft. Apart from the up drought itself upsetting the aircraft, that temperature rise will play havoc if you are struggling along with 1.3 G protection at say ISA. If the ambient temperature is suddenly ISA +10c (not unheard of) or ISA +05c.

The above example is just one reason to consider an even lower altitude, if "caught out". Sure you're in for a rough ride but the chances of staying in control and not departing are so much greater.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:01
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FR24 has ADS-B information for QZ8501
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/st...840256/photo/1

From this we see that the FR24 last known position was seen at 23:10:57 at 3.996 s 110.232 e. This is much closer to the area where the big pieces are resting (the FR24 LNP is about 21 miles west of the debris location)

I tried to calculate speed for the last two position reports and came up with a speed of about 20 kts. This calculation may not be accurate as it may be affected by the timing of the ADS-B transmission (the sample period is only 36 seconds.) But it could actually represent the forward speed of QZ8501 in its last seconds.

If I back up and calculate the average speed for the last 100 seconds of FR24s' data I find an average GS of 329 Kts.

(3.996 s 110.232 e to 4.083 s 110.335e = 54,897ft)
(23:10:57 to 23:12:37 = 100 seconds)

54897 / 100 * 60 * 60/ 6000 = 329 K


The FR24 information provides a last known location that is much more in accord with the debris fields being reported.

(We never have been told where the earlier Indonesian supplied last known positions came from - primary radar or ATC radar.)
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:02
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Can you tell an Airbus autopilot just to maintain attitude and power, effectively taking the height and speed locks out?
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:09
  #1187 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Capn Bloggs
Sounds like rubbish to me. Do you really think that a 5 minute weather diversion (or an orbit for that matter) would have any bearing on whether they could complete their 4 sectors? What would have happened had they been held at Singapore the first time? Our rules have always had allowable extensions; I'd be very surprised if the Indons don't have. Either that or there is a very dodgy mindset present here.
Flight and duty times in Indonesia are 14 hours duty time (with up to 3 hours extension) and 9 hours flight time. Abit more than in most countries, but you'll find that flying four sectors a day is the norm these days (even at Lion apparently, since the Bali Kuta beach landing).
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:09
  #1188 (permalink)  
 
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Weather mystery queries continue

06:12 QZ8501 requests left deviation from airway. Deviation approved.
Pilot then requests climb from FL320 to FL380
ATC asks pilot to standby, due to nearby traffic and to coordinate with next air traffic control sector (Singapore)
Who was the nearby traffic and what exactly was their seperation at 06:12? Was it flight UAE-409, AIr Asia flight M635 etc and how come none have reported unusual effects due to weather?

Could it be that a weather 'bomb' is so confined to such a very small local area that craft in the region experience little or no effects from this hazard?
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:23
  #1189 (permalink)  
 
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hail shaft can be very isolated..
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:32
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nickp. That is what you get on FBW aircraft when you take the Auto Pilot out. However the system is complex and to understand it you need to take a type rating. (basically Auto pilot is guidance only)
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:36
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Times Strait reports:

“.......Five major parts of the Airbus A320-200 have now been found off the island of Borneo. But rough weather last week hampered the search, a huge operation assisted by several countries including the United States and Russia.

During a momentary respite from bad weather, a team of divers went down to the biggest part of the wreckage Sunday morning and recovered one body, while another three were found floating in the sea, bringing the total number recovered to 34.

The divers "managed to go down but the visibility at the sea bottom was zero, it was dark and the seabed was muddy, with currents of three to five knots," search and rescue agency chief Bambang Soelistyo told reporters.

He said the fifth major part of the plane, located early Sunday, measured about 10 metres by one metre.

The search, focused on a site southwest of the Borneo town of Pangkalan Bun, has also been extended east because parts of the plane may have been swept by currents, Soelistyo said.....”

Another article on Times Strait today reports:

"JAKARTA - The chief of Indonesia's search and rescue agency Basarnas expressed optimism on Sunday that the black box of AirAsia Indonesia flight QZ8501 was located "not far" from five large objects the search operation had spotted in the Java Sea.

"The black box should not be far from the five significant objects we found," Mr Fransiskus Bambang Soelistyo told a media briefing at the agency's headquarters in Jakarta late on Sunday.
Officials had believed they were close to a major breakthrough after pinpointing five large objects on the sea floor thought to be parts of the Airbus A320-200 jet this weekend. But Mr Bambang Soelistyo noted the ongoing difficulty facing the multinational recovery operation: "Our challeng is mud. Lots of mud at the sea bottom.”.....Up to now, he said, no vessels had detected any signal beamed from the black boxes, or flight recorders. He said five vessels with the ability to locate black boxes will be assigned on Monday. The weather also remains a problem, he said. "Several (divers) tried to dive but had to return. Safety is also important for rescuers," he told reporters...."
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:43
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Originally Posted by bille1319
06:12 QZ8501 requests left deviation from airway. Deviation approved.
Pilot then requests climb from FL320 to FL380
ATC asks pilot to standby, due to nearby traffic and to coordinate with next air traffic control sector (Singapore)


Who was the nearby traffic and what exactly was their seperation at 06:12? Was it flight UAE-409, AIr Asia flight M635 etc and how come none have reported unusual effects due to weather?

Could it be that a weather 'bomb' is so confined to such a very small local area that craft in the region experience little or no effects from this hazard?
The other traffic in the area probably just did a better job deviating around the weather.


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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:54
  #1193 (permalink)  
 
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I'm just trying to check if I have missed something in the last week
The update above by jcjeant is clear but it sure doesn't seem to match even 50% of the post so far on this thread.

I'm all for some speculation but there seems to be too many twists and turns of sub level (given that. given that, given that) this probably happened conclusions.

It seems that the visible wreckage and bodies to date only confirm a water impact and nothing else. Still TBD, possible inflight breakup, twists and turns, or flat impact

Nothing on the sea floor as yet confirms that the main wreckage has been found, let alone understood regarding how the plane entered the water.

Maybe it's just me and I missed something said earlier but how does the day of flight permissions have any bearing on this accident cause?
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 15:58
  #1194 (permalink)  
 
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Basarnas: Debris show plane body broken - Malaysiakini

One interesting line in that news item is "Indonesian transport minister threatens to sack those who cleared QZ8501 for take off when AirAsia was not permitted to fly on Sundays" - not that it has any relevance to why the accident happened.

Also interesting is that no pings received from the black boxes - I wonder why?
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 16:19
  #1195 (permalink)  
 
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Flightradar's ADS-B for the end of the flight.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/st...840256/photo/1

Someone has commented on the 7001 squawk, which puzzled me when I saw the FR24 playback. The AirAsia flight following just behind squawked 7002, I seem to remember.

Are those squawk numbers allowed for civilian flights in that airspace?
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 16:23
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(3.996 s 110.232 e to 4.083 s 110.335e = 54,897ft)
(23:10:57 to 23:12:37 = 100 seconds)

54897 / 100 * 60 * 60/ 6000 = 329 K
I would suggest, from a quick look last valid position was 23:12:01 - it seems to slow then stop after that? As does the data rate (from every 3s to a big gap). Quick calc by me makes it 494K?

Are the 3rd/4th columns from the right TAS & Hdg? Track? 2nd V/S? Last column?
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 16:24
  #1197 (permalink)  
 
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Life raft retrieval by Singapore ship

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTn2QxYKqaQ
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 16:32
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Raft would appear to be partially inflated as it comes aboard?
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 16:41
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Are the 3rd/4th columns from the right TAS & Hdg?
No, groundspeed and track.

2nd V/S?
Yes.

Last column?
No idea.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 16:41
  #1200 (permalink)  
 
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Life raft retrieval by Singapore ship
Is that not an escape slide? (Which granted may be used as a flotation device).
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