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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 3rd Jan 2015, 18:51
  #1121 (permalink)  
 
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I feel everybody is missing the point and picking the flys..t out of the pepper debating aerodynamical points which although have some relevance but are avoiding the cardinal issue - do not fly into thunder storms, they bite hard and what has happened to good airmanship and pilot judgement, do a 180 and return to where there are no red bits on the screen. For heavens sake when are we pilots going to say that the VIP's on board are ourselves and to hell with the bean counters and the rest of the jam stealers in our industry who appear in the media crying crocodile tears for the innocent victims of this tragedy. The reality is profit overrides safety every time and I defy any airline exec to deny this. And as for the flying public if you choose to save a miserable couple of dollars and travel with a dodgy carrier you will get what you deserve. There is no price on safety and professional crew.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 18:57
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AA73 [QUOTE]My point in this post is twofold: 1) tell the facts as they were, and 2) realize that the NTSB has a political agenda just like any government agency and sometimes needs to protect certain parties when bigger things are at stake. The aa587 NTSB report is a perfect example: it conveniently circumvents the real issues at stake (the A300 rudder limiter) and uses a training program to help assign blame to the flight crew, all in order to protect Airbus./QUOTE]

While I agree completely with your opinion, the QZ 322 was not a 300-6.
One would assume a completely different design on the 332's Limiter, no?

Are you saying there is no difference in the functioning in either airframe?

Last edited by Nieuport28; 4th Jan 2015 at 03:26.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 19:04
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Someone (lost in the mists of internet time:-) mentioned this author earlier:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mt8ooCms4sE
Nicholas Carr, "The Glass Cage: Automation and Us"
Talks at Google
55m
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 19:13
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Enola-gay stated: "The distinguishing feature of this recovery operation is the dignity which the Indonesian armed forces and police are showing to the victims and to the world.

Everyone involved is dressed immaculately in starched and pressed uniform, polished boots, body bags handled swiftly with humility, lines of guards of honour saluting makeshift coffins. There are traditional floral tributes on every coffin even though the occupant is only a number.

This is humanity and respect for fellow man at its very best in a country which has had more than its share of ethnic conflict over the last 20 years. Most of the victims are ethnic Chinese, and many are Christians. The recovery teams seem to be mostly ethnic Indo-Malay folk who are probably Muslims.

I am full of admiration for this respect, when compared with the contempt shown by so-called Europeans in the East of Ukraine for the victims of MH 17, many of whom were left to rot in turnip fields and only slung into a refrigerated rail truck by unkempt militia after days of doing nothing."


I have been thinking the very same thing. Not an easy mental & emotional task to do but they have done a very respectful duty hopefully they too will find peace once all the victims are back with their families.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 19:14
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@marchino61

My thoughts exactly
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 19:30
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A Russian search team, including 22 deep water divers and a remotely operated submersible vessel, is expected to join the hunt for the black boxes after arriving in Pangkalan Bun on Saturday.

Russian search teams arrived aboard a Beriev Be-200 amphibious aircraft

BBC News - AirAsia QZ8501: Plane crash blamed on weather
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 19:32
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@mseyfang

I wish it were that simple. The flying public has shown time and time again that it will do anything to save $5. Even if saving that $5 costs them $50 in fees. What you're proposing by implication is an education campaign by pilots that has a steep hill to climb in convincing people that safety is worth a little extra. People will cram themselves into 28 inch pitch seats over a few dollars. If they won't pay a bit extra for their own comfort, the statistical unlikelihood of an accident makes it unlikely that they will pay for an extra safety margin.
While there may be some truth in this, the U.S. automakers long argued that the public wouldn't pay for safety (airbags in particular). Volvo and both government and insurance crash tests have put the lie to that position. There has been a marked industry wide effort to score well on these tests. In other words, presented with good information on safety consumers DID respond and, as a result, so did the auto makers.

I am of the opinion that, at least in the west, the presumption is that there are qualified crews due to regulation and fear of liability. And this presumption in the mind of most western passengers extends to most parts of the world, particularly when they see shiny new planes.

How many passengers are aware of the flight bans into the EU and US on a surprisingly large number of this new Asian low cost carriers.

I think western passengers would be surprised and would think twice if this info was widely disseminated.

Last edited by jehrler; 3rd Jan 2015 at 22:11. Reason: typos/clarity
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 19:34
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Interesting quote in an AP report entitled "AirAsia flight has parallels with 2009 ocean crash":

David Greenberg, a former Delta Air Lines executive who was hired at Korean Air to oversee pilot training and safety, said aircraft manufacturers, airlines and the FAA embraced the idea that automation could make flying safer, but more recently began to worry about the times when automation can't carry the day.

"The focus started to shift back to being capable of using the automation as an assist to reduce workload in the right circumstance, but being capable also of taking over and flying the old way," Greenberg said.

"In Asia, it's very normal to rely, in my view, excessively on automation," he said, "partly because the manufacturers stress that the airplanes are easy to learn and easy to train on and very safe because the automation narrows the gap between skill and required skill."
That last phrase gives me the chills.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 20:24
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That last phrase gives me the chills.
me too esp. after listening to that excellent Google sponsored
talk on 'Automation' that fireflybob kindly posted...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04wnkcs
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 20:50
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I know that this is a rumour network, but can one of the very few facts relevant here be made clear, BG47 and Jehrler?
62 Indonesian airlines are indeed banned from the EU airspace due to the failure of local regulatory oversight.
But 5 are approved. Presumably, that means that the EU finds their internal processes make up for the regulator's weakness.
And guess what? Indonesia Air Asia is one of those few Indonesian airlines approved by the European Union to fly to the EU if it chooses, along with Garuda (which does).
Because it meets EU standards.
Fact. Not rumour.
The links proving this are very early on in this thread, if our posters had read them rather than just smearing all low-cost airlines.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 21:09
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OT?

I don't buy the protests that this thread has gone over the waterfall OT. If I shoehorn my size 38 keester into a size 31 seat and know from the getgo that if I lean my torso forward to brace for an indelicate flight conclusion that I'm more likely to break my neck than survive, I should not have to also worry that the person at the controls got there because his bank account or line of credit or papa's ego was bigger than the guy or girl with hands on ability and and not just knob experience. Accidents that hitherto may not have been regarded as related in cause are not out of bounds. We damned well better be learning from mistakes. Automation is very much on trial here, just as in any accident investigation, because automation is just another tool, and one that future hindsight may prove, like many tools before, to have been contributory to the outcome. It is increasingly clear that if automation gets to the point where it confronts a pilot with a choice between opposite actions, neither being particularly intuitive, to be determined in a matter of seconds by the pilot's best guess as to what the computer is thinking and where it may have erred, then you do have an automation/human interface problem. Even a hesitation at that point is contributory.


Someone wrote that automation has saved more lives than it has cost. The problem with that blanket approval is that many “advances” lengthen the cognitive decision chain when time is something one just doesn't have any more of.

Last edited by Leightman 957; 3rd Jan 2015 at 21:16. Reason: margin errata deleted
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 21:20
  #1132 (permalink)  
 
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Early in a standard investigation, investigators will want to find the "four corners" of the plane (nose, tail, left wing tip, right wing tip). These four specific objects must be found or otherwise accounted for.

Once we have the "four corners", then from their positions with respect to other debris and with respect to each other, an initial determination can be made to see whether the accident:

- Occurred at high speed or low speed
- Occurred at high angle or low angle
- Occurred with significant rotation (indicative of a stall/spin)
- Involved an in-flight breakup

And from there then an analysis can move forward.

But before we can answer those basic questions above, the possibilities are just endless. I.e., we have no real idea of what happened.

So far for QZ8501 we don't know the location and/or condition of any of the "four corners".
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 21:26
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According to BBC News the Indonesian Weather Agency are blaming the bad weather for the accident stating..."These icy conditions can stall the engines of the plane and freeze and damage the planes machinery."
That'll be it then.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 21:53
  #1134 (permalink)  
 
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Black Box

They've mentioned they think they have part of the tail....
Any word on BB or even pingers heard?
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 21:58
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Originally Posted by enola-gay
The distinguishing feature of this recovery operation is the dignity which the Indonesian armed forces and police are showing to the victims and to the world.

Everyone involved is dressed immaculately in starched and pressed uniform, polished boots, body bags handled swiftly with humility, lines of guards of honour saluting makeshift coffins. There are traditional floral tributes on every coffin even though the occupant is only a number.

This is humanity and respect for fellow man at its very best in a country which has had more than its share of ethnic conflict over the last 20 years. Most of the victims are ethnic Chinese, and many are Christians. The recovery teams seem to be mostly ethnic Indo-Malay folk who are probably Muslims.

I am full of admiration for this respect, when compared with the contempt shown by so-called Europeans in the East of Ukraine for the victims of MH 17, many of whom were left to rot in turnip fields and only slung into a refrigerated rail truck by unkempt militia after days of doing nothing.
Very well said, and I agree most strongly with your closing paragraph.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 22:05
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@LCYslicker

I was not attempting to impune Air Asia or its pilot in this incident, I was just pointing out that there *are* concerns over safety in some of these carriers and that this has resulted in EU bans. There are plenty of incidents in non-banned carriers.

Rather, I was making the point that assumptions about adequate regulation and training are common among the lay passenger in the west. Therefore it is not surprising that there is a focus on fares/fees rather than safety as safety is a "given". Contra the OP, it doesn't mean these passengers don't care, it means they do not have the general knowledge or capability to understand the choices. Kind of like car buyers before crash tests began rating the survivability of various crashes.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 22:09
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-3.9241948673 110.5252477224
so pretty much where the original debris was found, and 180 in direction and 100 klms from where the last reported location/heading was



AirAsia Flight QZ8501: Four massive objects found in sea thought to be lost jet
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 22:31
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A Structure to Evaluate the QZ8501 Accident

I have read virtually the entire thread and there is much interesting comment. I would like to offer some structure to what we know followed by personal speculation that you are free to discount.

What I believe we know :
The aircraft was in cruise and encountered weather associated with the ITCZ.
The crew requested a heading change and a higher altitude. The Heading change was approved.
Shortly afterwards, ATC attempted to contact the crew with a higher altitude assignment but was unable to contact.
The aircraft was observed on ATC radars to both climb and to decelerate (GS) significantly before descending rapidly.
The aircraft wreckage has been found near the last known position.
The wreckage is in relatively large pieces and the bodies of victims are essentially intact.
The Captain was high time and had prior F-16 experience.
The first officer had more than 2000 hours.

There are 5 ways to crash near the LKP from cruise. From the above data, we can eliminate two of these and the third is now improbable. (I am not considering deliberate acts to crash an aircraft.)

1. An out of control dive. (Discount due to low velocity impact.)
2. A stall maintained down to the surface such as happened to AF447.
3. A stall leading to a spin down to the surface.
4. Inflight breakup. (Improbable due to the relatively low fuselage impact velocity).
5. Glide down from altitude with dead engines. (Discounted for a number of reasons, primarily because the aircraft crashed so close to LKP & conflicts with information from ATC radar.)

Speculation:
That the aircraft became stalled and either mushed or spun down to the surface.
The mush scenario is less likely due to the wide dissemination of the AF447 event.
Possible cause of a stall:
Weather related activation of high speed protection, pitching the aircraft up sharply, followed by either the crew putting the aircraft into Alternate law to regain control or activation of Abnormal Alternate Law and then stalling/departing the aircraft due to a high nose attitude and turbulence.

Expectation:
The Flight Data Recorders will be recovered in short order and should be readable. Hopefully the pingers are still bolted to the recorders and are functioning. With the weather in the crash area, there is a fair possibility of drifting sand on the bottom obscuring smaller crash debris.
We will learn in short order what happened. The why is going to provide much interesting discussion I suspect.
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 22:31
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Could this have any bearing on the cause of the accident?
or... you could have just read the thread
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Old 3rd Jan 2015, 22:33
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Now I'd imagine Air Asia Indonesia will be firing their fixer...er, sorry....I mean "government liaison officer" ;-)
My experience in Indonesia btw is that bribery and police extortion are entirely accepted if they protect the poor from the rich but highly prosecuted if it goes the other way. These are effectively mechanisms of collective social control ad not primarily by elites. In essence it is easy for Westerners to cry "corruption" and assume that the systme isn't working.

My reading is different. I think this is a demand by Indonesian regulators for a lot more money as punishment for losing the plane.
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