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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 4th Jan 2015, 21:31
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ettore, I am going to post what I already posted on the 31st December, as I am led to believe, if we apply "normal" European decision making as regards go/no-go, whether to penetrate weather, how much separation to allow, there would be NO air travel in this part of the world.

I therefore humbly submit, that the failure (if there was one ) to get a "weather report" is neither here nor there in the grand scheme of things. Throw your hands up in horror if you wish, but, I am led to believe that, operating in that part of the world, is based very much on firstly going, and sussing it out the best you can once underway.

Standing by for corroboration/shooting down as required, but that is how I have been told it is. My (prev) post below.


I have not had the "pleasure" of flying in that part of the world, however, a couple of very experienced colleagues that did, for some time, intimated to me that if you did not accept to routinely fly through weather that you assuredly would avoid in Europe, you wouldn't operate any flights.

I doubt (knowing the individuals & their experience) if this was too much of an exaggeration, I believe it is quite probably the day to day reality of ops in that part of the world.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 21:34
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@etudiant

May be, may be not.

But - and again if this is true - it would be quite dearly telling about poor airmanship, safety culture and it would draw hefty liability consequences.

@captplaystation

May be. But - again, if this is true - it would certainly draw hefty liability consequences.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 21:37
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RE: "pilots did not get weather report"

That article strikes me as pure hyperbole. Does this newspaper expect that Captain Iriyanto was supposed to sit on the runway for an hour and a half waiting for a weather report?

This Captain was local to the area, he knew what the weather was like (all he had to do was look up as he walked to the plane.) There were a half a dozen other planes out in that weather, he could have gotten pireps anytime he was curious. Weather reports can only give generalized reports for an area, they can't pinpoint individual cells anyway. That's what the planes' weather radar is for.

Much ado about nothing.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 21:49
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Thanks ekw. I doubt there is any significant connection for Allianz to find between this, MH370 and MH17. They appear to be 3 very different incidents.

In some ways I find this the most disconcerting due to possible underlying factors.

I had simplified it a bit. Less popular airports, less popular timeslots, pre-packed food (for sale), reduced baggage etc are among the many ways LCC reduce costs. My point is LCC pay much the same for planes, interest rates, and fuel. So there are only so many places they can reduce costs. And so everything that is discretionary is reviewed to minimise costs.

The inference that LCC are compromising safety is not accurate because if they were, their insurance premiums would move in tandem, killing their profit.
Not so sure about that. The fact is that airline travel is very safe so it is difficult to see any differences that may exist. So people have to make subjective decisions due to insufficient objective data. As others have commented however, most people can't do this and price is paramount.

We are in the midst of widespread and probably unprecedented changes between society and technology. Never before have people been so divorced from the technology they use. This is a general issue that is changing all society. Aviation is but one symptom of this.

I think these changes are a risk for all. Air France is not a LCC. But I do believe LCC are probably more vulnerable to these changes.

Last edited by slats11; 4th Jan 2015 at 22:18.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 21:57
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Captainplaystation, exactly.

If you fly in or near the the ITCZ for long enough, sooner or later you are going to end up, where you shouldn't, or don't want to be. There can be many reasons for this.

The important point being, give yourself plenty of margin for this eventuality.

Culture

Properly trained crews anywhere can be as good or as bad as anywhere else. However if they are allowed to pressurized by corporate greed and face punishment by a culture of fear and intimidation, that is a recipe for disaster. This is especially so for inexperienced pilots who maybe allow themselves to be so pressured influencing incorrect decisions. This is where, a proper regulator (or lack of) that ensures this doesn't occur is the real problem, as I see it.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 22:04
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Properly trained crews anywhere can be as good or as bad as anywhere else. However if they are allowed to pressurized by corporate greed and face punishment by a culture of fear and intimidation, that is a recipe for disaster. This is especially so for inexperienced pilots who maybe allow themselves to be so pressured influencing incorrect decisions. This is where, a proper regulator that ensures this doesn't occur is the real problem, as I see it.




Here we have a very senior captain on a routine flight, which was also routine for the many other airplanes in the same sky at the same time.
It is difficult to extrapolate this accident into an issue centering on 'corporate greed' or ' a culture of fear and intimidation'.
That just seems a cop out to me when we have a very specific accident to evaluate.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 22:11
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Icing

Ice shedding can be done on the ground or engine anti ice used in the air to get with the ignition turned on for maximum protection in the vicinity of weather.

Even if both engines flamed out due to there would be the means of communicating with the ground and plenty of time. Therefore engine icing is improbable and this incident was sudden and catastrophic.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 22:12
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Agreed.

I was generalizing with the culture thing. We will never eliminate human error, no matter what the culture.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 22:50
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To all who looks at the debris photos:

When you see many adjacent part in context, then you can often tell what may or may not have happened. The photo of the relatively intact airplane window panel can not be taken out of context. It there are more debris found you can start making deductions.

The debris found shortly after the AF447 crash showed similar characteristics, and that was high velocity impact with the ocean. The cruise-level destruction of MH17 resulted in much smaller pieces (apart from engines) and fragmented bodies.
If several pieces of debris turn up rather undamaged like on the photo, a scenario where the plane hits the water with minor or no external damage MAY be what we're looking at. Reference the popular AF447.

If several pieces of debris turn up that are small and shattered you are more likely to have an in-flight break-up like Air India 182 (also a water event).

Please remember that even in the cases of Lockerbie and MH17 (debris on ground, not water) there are several pieces that are somewhat large-ish and undamaged so there are huge pitfalls in trying to guess from only one photo of debris.

So, can we move on from that window panel now?

Please continue to post photos of debris as they turn up though, I follow this thread more closely than any other news outlet.
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 23:22
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Originally Posted by "ETUDIANT"
Here we have a very senior captain on a routine flight, which was also routine for the many other airplanes in the same sky at the same time.
It is difficult to extrapolate this accident into an issue centering on 'corporate greed' or ' a culture of fear and intimidation'.
That just seems a cop out to me when we have a very specific accident to evaluate
Yes, that's a fair point alright!
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 23:28
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what i want to hear on the cvr

1. fasten seat belts cockpit and cabin including FAS

2. engine ignition on, engine anti ice on


3. rough air penetration speed

4. adjust tilt and gain on wx radar

5 direction of clearer air if things get bad
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 23:52
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1 - for pax, a "ping" on the recording, I am sure it was done, if it was rough, quite possibly much earlier, if it was indeed ever switched off / for crew . . if some real nasties were anticipated, normally a conversation on the inter phone, or, in extremis (never been there personally ) "CC be seated immediately " or suchlike on the PA.

2 - not neccesarily a call out, with TAT colder than -40c, TAI not required on a B737, don't know for A320 but, same engines, so would imagine similar, ignition is normally "Auto" so crew action only required in severe turbulence

3 - if it is rough, agreed "may" be some verbal discussion, but most companies PF may make adjustments to speed without verbal confirmation to the other crew member.

4 - Good luck with that one. . . .

5 - there may be some discussion about which way to turn, and, normally, a request to ATC to do so, but. . .it isn't a bloody hollywood movie FFS, so, lack of "verbal annunciation", should not be interpreted as "asleep/not paying attention/not on the case". . . . Are you a current/rated/practicing/member of crew/Jet Transport ? if not, well. . .you are, a bit of a "clutter" on a semi-serious discussion. . . .as bloody usual on pprune
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Old 4th Jan 2015, 23:56
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Experts....

How susceptible are ADIRUs to extreme turbulence? Specifically, the attitude section.

I seem to recall an incident with one of our aircraft (Boeing) which lost two of the three IRUs due to severe turbulence (perhaps about 10 years ago). I can't recall, however, if the IRUs were switched to ATT mode to help recover basic attitude displays.

Do ADIRUs have more than the basic 3 laser gyro and accelerometer pairs?
Do A320s automatically switch to an attitude display if navigation mode is lost? (plus manual backup). Of course, ATT mode is mode is useless if you can't achieve level flight for a certain period of time.

Note: I've even seen faulty attitude displays on ISFDs (with solid state accelerometers) after a manually generated upset. A reset was required.

There's a lot of talk about using pitch/power when air data is lost, but if attitude was lost, too....
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 00:01
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Where are the CVR/DFDRs located on the A320?

Are they in a section of the fuselage which is surrounded by metal on all sides which may attenuate the ultrasonic signals? Could they be in an air pocket and not submerged in water?

Other than rough weather, I'm trying to speculate why no signals have yet been detected.
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 00:22
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SOP Monkey

Apart from the up drought itself upsetting the aircraft, that temperature rise will play havoc if you are struggling along with 1.3 G protection at say ISA. If the ambient temperature is suddenly ISA +10c (not unheard of) or ISA +05c.
In the experience that I quoted previously the OAT at FL410 went from ISA+2C to ISA+29C in the space of 5 seconds. However I would speculate that this would be less critical for an A320 at FL320, although it would put a cold aircraft surface back into the temperature region for super-cooled water droplets.

Since I don't fly the A320, any Airbus drivers got any suggestions on how an A320 would handle a sudden temp change of that magnitude at FL320?
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 00:22
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"Other than rough weather, I'm trying to speculate why no signals have yet been detected."

There have been reports about mud and silt on the sea floor being a problem with recovering likely debris, so attenuation of the signal might be a factor. It can only ping if it's not buried in mud.
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 00:24
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captplaystation

not quite sure what you mean. but yes, I am a current captain for a major airline

and we would certainly talk about changing speed to turbulence penetration speed. its called crm.

when we face rough air ahead, I brief the FA's or have the F/O brief them via the interphone. I make sure they have secured the cabin in advance of the rough air and are buckled in their seat belts.

I have a feeling our airline does things differently than your airline.

I wouldn't expect the F/O to change speeds without informing or seeking concurrence from the capt.

I would expect the captain to announce to the f/o that we were slowing to turbulence penetration speed.


And , just in case you don't know. When we get a clearance for another altitude we have a whole system of setting the altitude in the alerter pointing, saying, verifying.
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 00:37
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Who would have thought we would be back here so soon listening for pingers completely unsuitable for the function we now require of them.....

They are extremely short range (and short lived) and so can only be relied upon for locating the recorders when you are in the right vicinity.

Hopefully thy are close to the section they reportedly recovered a body from. However you would hope they would have heard them if that close. Not much you can do about waves, but presumably non essential ships and aircraft can be kept away.

So maybe they are further away. Or maybe burried in silt. Or maybe they didn't survive intact.
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 00:37
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTn2QxYKqaQ


At the very end of this video of the recovery of a slide, is a shot of the slide inflation cylinder gauge.
Would someone who knows the system care to comment on the position of the needle?
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Old 5th Jan 2015, 00:55
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If they were technically unauthorised for that flight, that might very well 'technically' invalidate their insurance, might it not...?
Things work differently in Indonesia than in the US or Europe. The official rules and the real rules don't really have as much overlap as you might expect. This is true both regarding insurance and regulations. Put another way, rules in Indonesia are flexible things but there is a lot of scrutiny into how they are bent.

If they were flying four days a week, chances are the transportation ministry knew what they were up to.
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