Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

[CISTRS]

Caygill:
Do we really need change? What has changed, aviation or expectations? Aviation has for sure changed for the better and safer, but so has also the media reality and peoples perception of normal.

Due to massive changes in technology, aviation has for sure changed for the better and safer.
For the same reasons, people's expectations have also changed.
It is increasingly intolerable for 100s of souls to be "lost" without trace whilst eyeballs to find them are deployed during daylight only.

[onetrack]

SkyNews Australia has reported ...

"An Indonesian official says Australian planes have spotted objects in the area where an AirAsia flight carrying 162 passengers disappeared.

Jakarta's Air Force base commander Rear Marshal Dwi Putranto says he has been informed that an Australian Orion aircraft had detected suspicious objects near Nangka island, about 160 kilometres southwest of Pangkalan Bun, near central Kalimantan, or 1120 kilometres from the location where the plane lost contact.

'However, we cannot be sure whether it is part of the missing AirAsia plane,' Putranto says, 'We are now moving in that direction, which is in cloudy conditions.' ... "


1120 kms away from LKP of the missing aircraft?? Seems like this bloke is grasping at straws to get himself in the news.

[peekay4]

Both of those numbers can't be right. 160 km SW from Pangkalan Bun isn't 1,120 km from the last known position. I mean, from Pangkalan Bun all the way to Jakarta is only ~ 680 km.

[WingNut60]

Debris of some sort spotted .... Maybe

Or you could take a look for a miss-translation or a typo.


Pangkalanbun is about 300 km EENE of the reported search area.
I doubt that the Orion would be looking 1120km from that area.

[onetrack]

Both of those numbers can't be right. 160 km SW from Pangkalan Bun isn't 1,120 km from the last known position.

That's correct. Seems to me like it should have read, "1120kms from Surabaya airport". Pulau Nangka is certainly in the right area for potential wreckage.

The sea security post location where the report came from, is approx 34NM from LKP of the aircraft. It is also reported that local fishermen reported seeing an aircraft coming down and hearing the crash.
However, it appears those fisherman have yet to be officially interviewed.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...1/1554532.html

[p.j.m]

Originally Posted by onetrack

Jakarta's Air Force base commander Rear Marshal Dwi Putranto says he has been informed that an Australian Orion aircraft had detected suspicious objects near Nangka island, about 160 kilometres southwest of Pangkalan Bun,

looks like the right general location to me, also lines up with the location of unconfirmed wreckage reported yesterday.

[WingNut60]

eh ????

Pulau Nangka (near Belitung) is about 350 km WWNW of Pangkalanbun
Though it is entirely possible that there are multiple "Pulau Nangkas" (Jackfruit Island) in the vicinity

[peekay4]

According to an Air Force spokesman earlier today (Jakarta time), the last known position was bearing 247 degrees, 127nm from Pangkalanbun. So the debris would approximately be in the right area.

Vice President Jusuf Kalla is on TV now saying that they have not been able to confirm the nature of the reported debris.

[PT6Driver]

The aircraft cannot be found instantly, therefore we get demands for all sorts of tracking devices. All of which would not really help in this instance.
Even if there is a locator beacon functioning correctly finding surface wreckage is a painstaking and time consuming task.
Floating debris will move with the currents and tides sometimes very rapidly hence the ever expanding search area.
For debris that is underwater even with functioning locator beacons, you need either helicopter with appropriate equipment or surface assets again appropriately equiped.
All of which again takes time and a painstaking methodical search.
For all the demands for up to the second traking devices not one of the suggestions would in this instance further the search effort beyond the current last known position.

[olasek]

BBC has reported that the aircraft never climbed to FL380 because ATC didn't give the clearence due to traffic..so I can suppose that they were in the "shit" already and remained there a couple of minutes too much without the chance to climb immediately.

Pure speculation, you can go around weather, there are other things to do besides climbing. And all this assuming weather had anything to do with it.

[IFixPlanes]

EAD Applicability

EMERGENCY AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVE 2014-0266-E_1 NOVEMBER 2014
Applicability:
Airbus A318-111, A318-112, A318-121, A318-122, A319-111, A319-112, A319-113, A319-114, A319-115, A319-131, A319-132, A319-133, A320-211, A320-212, A320-214, A320-215, A320-216, A320-231, A320-232, A320-233, A321-111, A321-112, A321-131, A321-211, A321-212, A321-213, A321-231 and A321-232 aeroplanes, all manufacturer serial numbers.

[Ghost_Rider737]

yes the most recent EAD regarding "frozen AOA" indicators (resulting in spurious speed decrease to close to or below VLS causing the nose to pitch down in Normal Law) does seem likely to be the cause. Maybe the pilots weren't aware of the new procedure ?!?

[Bobman84]

Another West Caribbean Airways Flight 708?

[tartare]

Guys - given the payload - what is the maximum altitude that aircraft could have safely operated at before getting too close to coffin corner?

[FlightDream111]

"severe thunderstorms can destroy aircraft"

Aviation losses from lightning:

Aviation Losses from Lightning Strikes - National Lightning Safety Institute

Thunderstorms "severe thunderstorms can destroy aircraft"

http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/m.../AC_00-24B.pdf

Somewhat milder Scientific article:

What happens when lightning strikes an airplane? - Scientific American


Not a pilot, delete if you will

[caa]

The storm cell was bigger than the crew and aircraft - mother nature wins every time. That's what I suggest! Happened many times before and will again. Rip pax and crew but please prove me wrong even with 1 safe sole.

[cozmo]

john_smith: Well there you have it ladies and gents. No point in having an investigation. cozmo has already cracked it.

Well, as an ATC, I still think that the procedure he was doing to avoid squall line of 100Nm was a very BAD choice. Instead of planning and "hoping" above he was avoiding it too late.

Sadly, he DID stall the aircraft, as I pointed out. He was flying 100KTS slower. At that ALT, this is serious stuff he is doing with an aircraft.

Some rules for avoiding the squall line:

[CaptainProp]

Guys - given the payload - what is the maximum altitude that aircraft could have safely operated at before getting too close to coffin corner?

I would say that depends on fuel load really in this case. Anything around FL370-380 would be "normal" but as they requested to climb to FL390 (?) then I guess they were able to go to FL390.

[AN2 Driver]

ATOW was 63.6 tons, TOF 8.3 tons.

Kementerian Perhubungan Republik Indonesia - Data Pesawat Air Asia QZ 8501 SUB-SIN Beserta Data Penumpang yang hilang kontak

[lilkim]

JAKARTA: An object spotted during a sea search for an AirAsia plane was not from the aircraft, Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla said on Monday after reports that an Australian surveillance aircraft had found something.

Object spotted in sea not from AirAsia plane: Indonesian VP - Channel NewsAsia