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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 30th Dec 2014, 08:45
  #521 (permalink)  
 
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Racist and patently ill-informed comment from Australian 'expert' reported on New Straits Times

""Neil Hansford said that either the Indonesian captain or French first officer had plotted a “dangerous flight plan"

“Whether they read the meteorology right they were given in Surubaya...And how well did they communicate? One whose basic language is Bahasa and the other guy’s basic language is French.”


Don't allow your political correctness to rule out inter language problems in the heat of a dire distress situation.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 08:45
  #522 (permalink)  
 
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I bet all those impatient people demanding the industry spend un-necessary amounts of money on tracking gadgets for such rare events won't come back here praising the SAR for locating it so quickly.

Good job SAR. Given the poor weather on day one, I think they did a good job of making up for lost time in the last couple of days.

Hope all goes well with the salvage ops.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 08:47
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Originally Posted by onetrack
Jakarta's Air Force base commander Rear Marshal Dwi Putranto says he has been informed that an Australian Orion aircraft had detected suspicious objects near Nangka island, about 160 kilometres southwest of Pangkalan Bun
wow, the "160 kilometres southwest of Pangkalan Bun" 24 hours ago, was pretty much spot on, the reference to Nangka island was a bit of a furphy tho...
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 08:50
  #524 (permalink)  
 
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So cozmo, you have an ATPL?
With some time as an airline captain?
On high speed heavy jet a/c?
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 08:56
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Mixture, yes it was a good job given the circumstances as described however as a pax it isn't good enough overall. If you don't agree then OK, but if the industry wants to improve the over all system responsiveness how can SAR assets be aided? Agree continuous realtime tracking isn't the answer but if you wanted to be able to get medical assistance where it was needed within say 18 hrs how could it be achieved? Seems little point in having rapidly deployable resources if it takes so long to identify where they are needed. As a pax I'll shut up now but the next time I read the safety card information on the slides utility as a raft on a transatlantic flight I'll be more sceptical than even now!
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:01
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Yes Cozmo, no one has mentioned banking 120deg.... Nor would anyone likely survive it in an airliner!

You are an idiot not a specialist... Just like 50+% of posters here
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:06
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More than 40 bodies recovered; 'shadow' spotted on the seabed believed to be missing plane - South-east Asia News & Top Stories - The Straits Times
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:10
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indonesian

(I think cosmo actually referred to a 'turn' of 120 degrees.... cut him some slack}
Is it daylight at 0617 local time
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:11
  #529 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Phoenix_
I bet the trimmable THS will be found at max NU, again. That's not pilot error.
In other words: You don't consider AF447 Pilot error?
Wow!
Just wow.
I could never fathom someone would esteem the profession of ATP so low.

That said, chances are high the THS will indeed be found in full NU.
All the bits and pieces we have so far seem to point into that direction.
Reason for that: Let's wait for FDR and CVR.
The Emergency AD points rather in an opposite direction and would lead to a high speeed dive and impact. The bits and pieces of Information (including alleged state of retrieved bodies) don't really seem to fit that Scenario atm.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:18
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In other words: You don't consider AF447 Pilot error?
Wow! Just wow.
Final report:
  • the crew made inappropriate control inputs that destabilized the flight path;
  • the crew failed to follow appropriate procedure for loss of displayed airspeed information;
  • the crew were late in identifying and correcting the deviation from the flight path;
  • the crew lacked understanding of the approach to stall;
  • the crew failed to recognize that the aircraft had stalled and consequently did not make inputs that would have made it possible to recover from the stall.
I would call that "pilot errors".
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:22
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Originally Posted by _Phoenix_
I bet the trimmable THS will be found at max NU, again. That's not pilot error.
I look forward to your explanation about being on the wrong side of the facts.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:22
  #532 (permalink)  
 
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Mixture, I certainly congratulate the Indonesia SAR and the authorities there, for their efficiency and above all, for their transparency.

The Industry can still do more in locating downed aircraft in a timely manner. I agree that full telemetry of all flight data in real time is not the answer, but this thread has discussed sensible low bandwidth alternatives.

I'm glad that there can be some closure for the relatives and families.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:27
  #533 (permalink)  
 
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The boxes will be found, no doubt about that.
With the aircraft largely in one piece, I smell AOA probes from far away.
"Low speed" impact after a stall in an aircraft that can't stall.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:36
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Did someone just mention the elephant in the room?

The elephant being another Airbus crew in an abnormal situation that has met their end wondering what the hell the aircraft is doing and why it doesnt respond as expected to inputs?

It is a terrible feeling when every muscle memory learnt over thousands of hours is only digging you deeper into the hole.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:39
  #535 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by _Phoenix_
Are you from media?
No, I'm not.
Are you?
You didn't understood my point, AF447 wasn't pilot error entirely. No Bonin wasn't an idiot at all
Between a Pilot making an (albeit gross) error and being an idiot is quite a difference. It is the task of Training to reduce the risk of making Errors and if Errors are made, to be able to correct them.
Still AF447 is a clear example where a rather minor technical failure (temporary u/s of airspeed reading) led to a disaster due to very unfortunate human/machine interaction and interpretation. To get that right is one of the main Tasks of a Pilot these days and should be trained thoroughly.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:40
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I suspect we will discover this aircraft encountered severe/extreme turbulence resulting in an upset/subsequent loss of control situation, where as Air France 442's (data anyway) didn't reflect any significant turbulence encounter, just an incorrect response to airspeed unreliable, due to defective Thales pitot tubes, a situation encountered previously by a Northwest A-330, which the crew successfully handled and continued onward without difficulty...the look of that storm Air Asia appears to have penetrated could very well have have caused the weather radar to attenuate, presenting a false impression the way ahead was only a thin band of weather when in fact it was only reflecting the leading edge of an extreme cell, and being over water it would be impossible to tilt down and verify by looking for a ground return behind the echoes...
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:41
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Well that developed very quickly - from nothing to 40 bodies found and what is rumoured to be a shadow of the fuselage on the ocean floor.
This situation is incomparable to MH370, simply for the fact that the waters in this region are diveable depths (200m IIRC) as opposed to The depth of the Grand Canyon where MH370 is believed to be.

A couple of things regarding this are interesting, all be it very sad for those involved. Early reports indicate the bodies are in one piece, which is fairly unusual for a supposed "Dive from Fl36" - Does this suggest a somewhat controlled approach / crash, but at a higher velocity than that is survivable? Also, the bodies not attached to chairs is an interesting point raised by someone else.

Secondly, the sudden surge of bodies all in one location, all of a sudden - does this not suggest the plane was in fact largely intact and the bodies have now started floating to the top along with Panels, PAX door etc - Again, does not fit with the dive suggestions or mid air break up.

There was reportedly a trail of smoke from one of the islands in the vicinity of the body locations - Any more news on this?

Finally, Could this be a case of AF again in as such the crew were so overwhelmed with the situation they simply didn't make a distress call for whatever reason. My gut feeling is, they were already in trouble when they made the request for FL38 (ATC comms and tones of voice would confirm this).

Also - I've not had a chance to see the flight plans / routes. It was reported that there was traffic at FL38 which is why the request was denied. If the plane did make a sudden climb to FL36 and was getting thrown around, would TCAS of alarmed of a collision warning to compound an already confused situation in the cockpit?

As we all know, MOST, but not all incidents involve the hole in the cheese effect. I'm not a qualified Pilot (although I am learning), but i appreciate and enjoy discussing things with you guys here.

As a well-travelled PAX and enthusiast, it does pain me to see how this industry has gone in the last few years in the effort to save costs and provide bang for buck for shareholders at the expense of Training, Safety and affectively, UAV Drone pilots rather than hands-on flying.

Keep doing your jobs well and safely. Whatever occurred that night, let's hope we as passengers, Professionals and human beings can learn from it.

My personal opinion is, if the general public were better educated how the training flaws, budget cuts, questionable maintenance, working hours and salaries were affecting the industry, we would have a better Aviation transport system.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:41
  #538 (permalink)  
 
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I look forward to your explanation about being on the wrong side of the facts.
Fact = THS is rotated to max NU while stall warning online
Based on elevator vs THS area ratio+SW malfunction+sidestick design... The pilot error falls below 25%, first minute after AP disc.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:41
  #539 (permalink)  
 
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Ramble On

Airbus protections have saved way more than they have killed. An pilots not knowing what their plane isn't doing is not an Airbus phenomona. Just ask Asiana and Turkish and Thomsonfly who very nearly lost a plane in Bournemouth. Sad thing is the boeing guys came to harm in NORMAL operations.
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Old 30th Dec 2014, 09:51
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FACT: 15+ degrees nose high above FL300 is not sustainable, e.g. suicide...which means pilot error. You lose. Good day, sir.
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