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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 21st Feb 2015, 08:31
  #3281 (permalink)  
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Does this imply that Airbus and AirAsia may not want to accept the findings?
It is not a matter of accepting or not. Every party to an investigation ( and the manufacturer and the operator normally are, as well as the state(s) of registry ), can have their own views , differring from the majority, and those views can be added as comments to the report, generally as an appendix in the end.

The best example is in the Teneriffe collision report, where both KLM and the Dutch State did not agree with the report's conclusions an anexed their own investigation.

see here : http://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/313.pdf
page 57, the 3rd para , followed by 11 pages !)
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Old 21st Feb 2015, 13:34
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If that quote is true then it points to a complete whitewash of a report.
First of all it points to a perfectly normal process. All involved parties get a preliminary report and have the chance to comment. This may provide the investigators with aspects, views and technical details they did miss so far. (for example a manufacturer may have test flown specific scenarios already, with different findings than the investigator would assume)
However.... There is of course always a risk, that the most powerful party gets most of its view into the report. A complete whitewash is rare, but one must always read an accident report with the fact in mind, that there might be some information missing or some information included which is not that important. It is hard to seek for assistance without being manipulated.

So do I suspect a complete whitewash? Not at all!
Do I expect a 100% objective report? Well, within the typical limits of a job which is heavily influenced by politics. So I guess that is a No as well...

Sometimes it is easier if the aircraft remains missing...
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Old 26th Feb 2015, 10:03
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Oz 465

Certainly in a Boeing it is very simple:
Push down trim down until the stall indications stop.

Unfortunately, it is not that simple. If the engines are still at full chat (esp. at lower altitude), they will overpower the elevator and make the aircraft do a back-flip.

This was a part of the problem in the AF incident, and it may have been contributory in this incident. When most instructors do stalling in the sim, they ask you to reduce power to initiate the stall, so you never see the effect. What I did, and only because I asked, is let the speed bleed off to the stall on the approach - then add full power for the go-around and see what happens.....

Try it.
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Old 26th Feb 2015, 10:21
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ATC watcher

Then you probably never read an Indonesian investigation report before. (or any other for that matter)
No, but I have read two reports from xxxx nation, which did do everything to blame Boeing. And I have read two reports from xxxx nation, which did exactly the same thing (also to Boeing, but that is merely due to Boeing's commercial reach into those regions).

One interesting preliminary report said that, 'the gear collapsed because the captain landed the aircraft too smoothly....'

So this does happen. Not saying it will here, but it is always in a nation's interest to deflect blame, and the temptation is therefore high. We shall no-doubt see what they say shortly, but the long delay suggests that all is not well between the local CAA and Airbus.
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Old 27th Feb 2015, 18:39
  #3285 (permalink)  
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Silverstrata

I understand what you want to say but do not compare Indonesia KNKT with country Xxx (and I agree there are a few xxx out there ) but look at the NTSC report on the accident of the Sukhoi SSJ100 in Mt Salak in 2012 for instance . Go to pages 61 to 68 to make yourself an educated opinion of their expertise and independance. (You can download the report from ASN )
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Old 1st Mar 2015, 10:43
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Rumour ... Fuselage just lifted?

Taking the text and searching for DB30 - the barge said to have performed the lift - delivered:

"McDermott International’s DB30 derrick barge, with its 2,794 metric ton-rated crane, will be put to work this year supporting Petronas’ Bukit Tua Development offshore East Java, Indonesia. “This is the second award we have received related to the Bukit Tua Development this year,” commented Hugh Cuthbertson, McDermott’s Vice President and General Manager, Asia Pacific. “We are currently fabricating the 1,212-ton BTJT-A wellhead jacket at our Batam Island fabrication facility in Indonesia, where construction work is on track and expected to complete in November 2014.” The DB30 will be tasked with transportation and installation of the BTJT-A jacket, its related topsides and subsea pipeline tie-in spools. Additionally, McDermott will undertake the pre-commissioning of the related export and infield pipelines. McDermott’s share of the offshore installation work is expected to be completed by end of the first quarter of 2015. The Bukit Tua field is located approximately 21 miles from Madura Island and 62 miles from Surabaya, East Java, in approximately 190 ft of water."

So outsized for weight but handy for larger dimensions, and already close to location. The barge has an operating draft of about 4.5 meters. So not improbable, but...

Can anyone confirm this rumour. I have not yet found photos.
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Old 1st Mar 2015, 10:52
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One wing was recovered , I haven't heard that they've lifted the fuselage yet

Berhasil! Basarnas Mengangkat Bodi Utama AirAsia QZ8501

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Old 1st Mar 2015, 16:11
  #3288 (permalink)  
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That article in Bahasa says that they were successful in raising the fuselage.
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Old 1st Mar 2015, 16:24
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Read it again ... when they say 'badan utama pesawat' they are talking about the wing , they are 'in process' of raising the fuselage.

If you look very closely at the photograph by enlarging it does look like part of the fuselage is still attached to the wing so perhaps that's what they mean.
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Old 1st Mar 2015, 18:41
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That is a rather large chunk of wing. That supports the concept of a rather low velocity water entry.

Can anyone verify which wing it is? The fuselage seemed to indicate a slightly left wing down water entry. Logically, the first wing to enter the water might get torn off. Then again, they may have severed the wing from the fuselage while underwater to make the lift easier.
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Old 1st Mar 2015, 20:00
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Which wing..

If it would be the right wing, underside, ... In the correct livery version the text "AirAsia" is between the flaptrack fairings of the outside flap. The word Air there points to the wing tip.

If it was the left wing, then the word Air would demand the text being on top of the left wing.... Am not sure if I have seen that. In most (all?) AirAsia 320's pictures the top of the left wing has no text and the top of the right wing carries the registration.

An english translation of Basarnas statements referred to the largest remaining part of the fuselage with one wing intact...
This would suggest that the section between wing and cockpit was damaged far more. So the section between front of wing and the cockpit would have to be severely damaged. With official statements referring to the cockpit as having been buried deep in the mud.

The earlier published series of 9-10 ROV photos showed the right wing .... With winglet missing...

First guess...right wing, but not 100% sure yet.

Dragging it in like this will have shredding and bending effects. KNKT seem to be pretty sure about the cause. But in spite of that properly measuring runout distances on flaps and slats could be quite interesting anyway. Would surprise me if that had been possible before, when reading about divers meeting underwater currents, low visibility, and the like.


Photo quality is not good, but I think the rightwing-underside is shown in both photos. Look at the remaining attached flaptrack system and fairing, also the position and direction of the "AirAsia" text, and similar damage to the wing tip as shown in the ROV photos ...


If indeed this is the largest remaining part then there would be no need (now at least) for the DB30 barge mentioned in a previous post. So that stays what it was, an unconfirmed rumour.

Last edited by A0283; 2nd Mar 2015 at 15:17. Reason: Update under xxxxx plus an attempt to improve readability :-)
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Old 2nd Mar 2015, 01:17
  #3292 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by aseanaero
Read it again ... when they say 'badan utama pesawat' they are talking about the wing , they are 'in process' of raising the fuselage.

If you look very closely at the photograph by enlarging it does look like part of the fuselage is still attached to the wing so perhaps that's what they mean.
'Badan utama pesawat' translates directly as "primary body of aircraft". Wing is 'sayap' in Bahasa. That article even gives the English translation in the article as 'fuselage'. And yes, I'm fluent in Bahasa.

Badan SAR Nasional (Basarnas) berhasil mengangkat fuselage (bagian badan utama) pesawat AirAsia QZ8501 di Selat Karimata This translates as Basarnas were successful in raising the fuselage of Air Asia QZ8501 in the Karimata straits. If you don't believe me, you can use Google translate.

As for the photo, news agencies use any photos they can find which may or not be directly related to the articles they publish.
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Old 2nd Mar 2015, 01:43
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The wreckage recovered is 80% wing and 20% fuselage / wing centre box up to floor level , I got that info direct from people who know.

I can confirm that the photo is of the latest recovery not a file photo.

Last edited by aseanaero; 2nd Mar 2015 at 02:38.
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Old 2nd Mar 2015, 16:37
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Recovery of part of main fuselage and wing and next steps

My own summary of the main points - suggestions, comments and more and better sources are welcome of course:

The main fuselage and right wing components have arrived in Jakarta (Port of Tanjung Priok, North Jakarta) on board Crest Onyx ( March 2nd).

The components have thereafter been transferred administratively to KNKT.

Basarnas has searched the fuselage for remains and personal effects. Some fragments and items were found.

Later, after transferring the components to shore, they will be cut up in sizes that can be transported to a KNKT hangar in Jakarta. Some selected parts will later be reserved for a monument on Kalimantan. In the meantime the wreckage appears to have been transferred to a shallow draft vessel. KN Pacitan was mentioned in an article. So probably this would be the means of transportation more inland.

The Basarnas effort scales back to 2-3 ships for a period of 2 weeks maximum. Then the (active) effort will probably end. The search status is 93 people identified, so still 69 people missing. Four cabin crew, the F/O and the engineer have been identified. The captain is among those still missing.

Cockpit recovery is not on the agenda (yet).


New photos of the docked Onyx showing - roughly:
a. 80 % of the right wing - lower panels still there, flaptracks and fairings still there, no images of the upper skin panels yet,
b. 50 % of the left wing - part of lower panels gone, no images of the upper skin panels yet, suggests turning in left,
c. part of the center fuselage section with 7 windows,
d. both main landing gears in their retracted and stowed positions, wheels still have their tires on them,
e. engines and their mounts appear to have been ripped from the wings, but in a way that appears to have left the wings in 'good' shape,
f. fuselage 'rolled open' - not surprising ref its 'compressed' state on the ROV footage, and the way in which it was retrieved,
g. inside view of fuselage which shows all interiors gone down to almost all isolation blankets (which in my view suggests more angle than a flat splash, and might even suggest a breakup before entering the water, but the only way to get more certainty about this is to have imagery of the cockpit and forward section),
h. the deflated 'sausage' shaped floatation cushions are still partially covering the components,
i. combining one picture with the remark of pprune's aseanaero - the center section is visible, its underside appears to have a caved in bottom panel - would be very interesting to have a high resolution picture of that,

Available sources till now:
i. in total 2 official photos by Basarnas of the recovery of the components, see the post of "aseanaero" above,
ii. in total 4 photos of Crest Onyx in Jakarta,
iii. a 32 second video,

Update on March 4th, 1600 GMT/Z in the meantime:
a. number of photos has increased to about 12-14 yesterday,
b. wing/CS combination was offloaded onshore from Onyx, then apparently reloaded on KN Pacitan, ships are both stopped in Jakarta at the moment,
c. the Main SAR effort by Basarnas has been officially stopped yesterday.
d. a small scale (active) SAR effort will continue for 7 days, with 2 vessels and KN Pacitan when it returns,
e. wreckage will be delivered to a KNKT hangar,

Update on March 6th, 1633 GMT/Z
a. number of photos on the web of fuselage and tail lift has increased again, but all were made about the same time,
b. Crest Onyx has left Jakarta port and has thereby left the operation,
c. KN Pacitan is still in port, unclear if it will used for transport or wreckage is already moving by road,
d. total of identified victims stands at 96,
e. DVI still has 4 other remains, but it may turn out that these do not belong to AirAsia passengers,
f. in the week before March 3rd, no new remains had been found,
g. total missing therefore stands at 66 of which 65 passengers plus the captain,

Update on March 9th, 1610 GMT/Z
a. KN Pacitan appears to be back on the crash location,
b. Basarnas is using KN Pacitan and two (probably smaller) vessels to complete the last week of searching. The search will completely end after that 7 days/1 week.
c. A total of 7 other remains (parts) were found in the wing and fuselage section. Getting DNA results from that will take about 2 weeks.
d. No change in identifications. And no new finds of remains.

Update on March 10th, 1944 GMT/Z
a. Relatives of MH17 passengers have had the opportunity to take a look at the assembled wreckage in the Netherlands. There is no news of offering that to the QZ8501 relatives. It would be interesting to find out if such a visit would help relatives with finding closure.
b. The KNKT/NTSC chief has given an interview on March 2nd in which he appears to assign more importance to the wreckage than thus far (comparing this with his earlier "we know everything" interview statements). He even talks about 'hoping to find new information'.

Update on March 16th, 2356 GMT/Z
a. Here you find a short interview with Mr Tony Fernandes about QZ8501 events and the expected ending of the search.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31912778
The video shows some new video scraps of very good quality. At least much better quality than we had before. So we probably had some lens-blurring done during this investigation too.
b. The search for the missing passengers (and captain) has officially ended on Monday, March 16. Two additional bodies and one parts have been found. This week I also expect an update on DNA results.
c. This will be my last 'short update' post for this stage of the investigation.

Last edited by A0283; 19th Mar 2015 at 23:02. Reason: Final 'short update'.
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Old 28th Mar 2015, 13:06
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More than 2 months after black boxes recovery

why no news after such long time analysing the black boxes? Are there any prosecutors in Indonesia? Why is no one coming public with the findings?
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Old 28th Mar 2015, 14:27
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Bonzo mate, you ever been to Indonesia?
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Old 28th Mar 2015, 16:23
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Only as a tourist.
I take it whatever brought down AirAsia is not of immediate technical concern to other A32x carriers.
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Old 28th Mar 2015, 17:59
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Bonzo777

If there were an identified technical issue that other operators need to know about Airbus would have issued an AOT long ago. Not to do so would be far too risky (lawyers...)
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Old 28th Mar 2015, 22:22
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Rumour heard last night is that one of the flight computers was playing up (and had been on earlier flights) and the captain decided to reboot it………..and then rebooted the good one in error. Loss of control followed.

This sounds to analogous to Twin engine aircraft accidents when the pilot fails to identify the failed engine correctly and shuts down the good engine.

Anyway its just a rumour…...
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Old 29th Mar 2015, 10:50
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" Are there any prosecutors in Indonesia?"

Oh yes, oh yes - and when they get their teeth into you it may be 50 years before they let go.........................

But any prosecutor is NOT a US style DA or a French Magistrate who can blast off on their own - as ever in Indoneisia things require discussion amongst all parties

they get there................... but not very quickly
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