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MH17 down near Donetsk


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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 22nd July 2014 | 16:12
  #761 (permalink)  
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The Mayalsians, if they have any sense, will ask for blackbox help from Australia, who they already have arrangements with because of MH370, and not let the US get their hands on them either.
BBC News - MH17 plane crash: UK experts to retrieve flight data

British air accident investigators will retrieve data from the black boxes of crashed flight MH17, UK Prime Minister David Cameron has said.

This follows a request by authorities in the Netherlands, where the Malaysia Airlines plane flew from before crashing in Ukraine.

The experts, based at Farnborough, will download data from the flight recorders for "international analysis".
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 16:16
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How long does this sort of analysis of the flight voice and data recorders take?
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 16:52
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Been reading more about the sa-11 operating in standalone mode. According to multiple web sites (such as Engagement and Fire Control Radars (S-Band, X-band) ) the 9S35 Fire Dome radar mounted to the Telar in the Buk M1 system DOES have standalone IFF capabilities. Anyone have any first hand knowledge about how the standalone IFF works ?

. The 9S35 Fire Dome provides a limited search and acquisition capability, a tracking capability and CW illumination for terminal guidance of the semi-active homing SAM seekers. It incorporates an IFF interrogator, optical tracker, datalink, and is powered by the TELAR's gas turbine generator. A shared antenna is employed for two X-band transmit/receive channels. These respectively provide a pulsed mode for search and track functions, with linear chirp for compression, and a CW mode for illumination. Monopulse angle tracking is employed for jam resistance. For target tracking the antenna and feed system provide a mainlobe with 2.5° width in azimuth and 1.3° in elevation. For CW illumination the antenna and feed system provide a mainlobe with 1.4° width in azimuth and 2.65° in elevation.

Operating autonomously, the 9S35 will take 4 seconds to sweep a 120° sector, with an elevation of 6° to 7°. When cued to acquire and track, with will take 2 seconds to sweep a 10° x 7° az/elev solid angle. Average power output in pulsed tracking modes varies between 0.5 and 1 kiloWatt, with CW illumination at 2 kiloWatts. The search and monopulse angle tracking receivers are both rated at a Noise Figure of NF=10 dB. The range error is cited at 175 metres, the angular error at less than 1°. The radar can switch from standby mode to combat operation in twenty seconds.
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 17:03
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Originally Posted by tippy
How long does this sort of analysis of the flight voice and data recorders take?
BBC News - MH17 plane crash: UK experts to retrieve flight data
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 17:26
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From: Montenegro
"According to multiple web sites (such as Engagement and Fire Control Radars (S-Band, X-band) ) the 9S35 Fire Dome radar mounted to the Telar in the Buk M1 system DOES have standalone IFF capabilities."

it does but its usage requires properly trained squad, at this point I wouldn't be surprised if rebels only knew how to acquire target and shoot and used their "spies" some hundreds miles to the west to alarm them about incoming military aircraft
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 17:49
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From: Lincs


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Old 22nd July 2014 | 17:59
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I suspect the DFDR/CVR data is digitally signed making falsification (likely) impossible, and probably engineered that way for many reasons.
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 18:06
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"Buk M1 system DOES have standalone IFF capabilities."

and what chance is there for a (basically) Soviet-spec IFF to identify a 777 as a 'friend'? (remember - in military, 'no marker' - NEVER a friend)
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 18:13
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From: wales
SKYNEWS

The USA state dept is about to announce having looked at all their evidence they believe the missile was launched from a rebel controlled area
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 18:19
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TEEEJ

nice explanatory image, doesn't look as if the pilot would have known a thing, if the angle of entry was slightly front to rear co might have had chance to say say a brief something .

Hope they have that piece secure, any idea how far from the main crash site it is.
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 18:32
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From: Lincs
Oldoberon,

No problem. I found it on another forum. See following for where it was recovered from.

The wreckage was recovered by the people of Petropavlovka from a villager’s back yard last Thursday and moved to the roadside because it was believed to be important.
MH17 crash: FT photo shows signs of damage from missile strike - FT.com
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 18:41
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The various recovered panels can be used to work out shrapnel density and vector at each panel location.

Any structure with both entrance and exit holes will yield a shrapnel particle path.

Integration of the paths will produce the position of detonation relative to the T7.

It takes more work to determine the missile vector. It will be somewhat like working out which way a shotgun was pointed from the shot pattern on an oblique target.
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 18:48
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About Robert Parry's article:
What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms.

The source said CIA analysts were still not ruling out the possibility that the troops were actually eastern Ukrainian rebels in similar uniforms but the initial assessment was that the troops were Ukrainian soldiers. There also was the suggestion that the soldiers involved were undisciplined and possibly drunk, since the imagery showed what looked like beer bottles scattered around the site, the source said.
He does a thing called "cherry picking" and uses a bit of bias himself, and some filling in of the blanks where facts are not available (a point he gets at early, in terms of whatever facts US DoS have, or the intel folks, it isn't all shared right away. ) There's a reason for that, and I don't think he's being honest about understanding what it is.

That criticism considered, I don't disagree with his indictment of the press corps (of which he is a member) in general.
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 18:59
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We could perhaps find a certain degree of reconciliation in this awful tragedy, if it was accidental, in the sense that a civilian transport was not the intended target. But what if it was not and the aircraft was deliberately targeted in an attempt to further isolate the Ukraine from the West. Then it can only be described as barbaric, the very worse of war crimes, acts which ocurred during the Balkan Wars. Violations of every rule in the book about how to conduct warfare. It had happened before and was happing again, somewhere else. In the West, the fact that the so called unrest in Eastern Ukraine had escalated to a major internal conflict,conducted not in strict observance of the Queensberry Rules must have been known and if not, should have been known to those who were tasked with the burden of responsibility for the safe conduct of passangers in all designated airspace. We are of course only too well acquainted with the precept that all air accidents involve a causal chain of factors, which when combined result in disaster. In this instance the major factor in this chain is the failure of proper and timely action to ban all civilian overflights in the region. Earlier in this thread someone had said it was the penny pinching bean counters to blame. I don`t think so. I would be inclined to question the faceless armies of bureaucrats, their painfully slow digestion and their highly developed skills of passing the buck.
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 19:01
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From: Lincs
Papapapahotel - truck carrying sam vehicle is same in pictures 6 and 8,

Yes the Buk on the trailer picture is confirmed as being taken in Torez. See following link for large image.

https://www.metabunk.org/data/MetaMi...7d36994c08.jpg

From (Note video in following post for confirmation of location in Torez)

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-3#post-117428

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-ukraine.3977/

As you can see that truck/trailer has history. Truck cab has what appears to be same stripe/decal.







The video of the truck/trailer with Buk on was highlighted in the Russian military brief on MH17.
It appears that the Russian military have done no work on this other than repeat what was on social media
and claiming it to be in Krasnoarmeysk which is in Ukrainian Government hands.

Last edited by TEEEJ; 22nd July 2014 at 22:10. Reason: Images resized
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 19:02
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We could perhaps find a certain degree of reconciliation in this awful tragedy, if it was accidental, in the sense that a civilian transport was not the intended target. But what if it was not and the aircraft was deliberately targeted in an attempt to further isolate the Ukraine from the West. Then it can only be described as barbaric, the very worse of war crimes, acts which ocurred during the Balkan Wars. Violations of every rule in the book about how to conduct warfare. It had happened before and was happing again, somewhere else. In the West, the fact that the so called unrest in Eastern Ukraine had escalated to a major internal conflict,conducted not in strict observance of the Queensberry Rules must have been known and if not, should have been known to those who were tasked with the burden of responsibility for the safe conduct of passangers in all designated airspace. We are of course only too well acquainted with the precept that all air accidents involve a causal chain of factors, which when combined result in disaster. In this instance the major factor in this chain is the failure of proper and timely action to ban all civilian overflights in the region. Earlier in this thread someone had said it was the penny pinching bean counters to blame. I don`t think so. I would be inclined to question the faceless armies of bureaucrats, their painfully slow digestion and their highly developed skills of passing the buck.
Perhaps, but why take such a risk?

I would have thought the beneficiaries of such an act would actually be the Ukranians, especially as they have been losing in the East.

Nevertheless, I believe it was an accident.
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 19:18
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The missile truck

Teej posting images of the SAM being moved
claiming it to be in Krasnoarmeysk which is in Ukrainian Government hands.
Apparently the motor dealership whose billboard is visible in the third image is in Krasnoarmeysk. Sorry, can't recall where I read that. This is no way proves the billboard is also there. Maybe someone who knows hows to get EXIF informaton from youtube images can tell where it was really taken.

BTW it is useful to read the "other side" websites too. And believe none of them.
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 19:22
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From: Lost in EU
Daily Press Briefing - July 21, 2014
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 19:25
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From: Montenegro
"But what if it was not and the aircraft was deliberately targeted in an attempt to further isolate the Ukraine from the West."

That doesn't make sense, actually it has pushed Ukraine closer to the West than it has ever been.

Also it provided "breathing room" for ukrainian aircraft and they are now pounding rebel cities fiercely without fear from their SAMs (as rebels can't risk anymore with SAMs) and without any care for civilian casualties as media is now interested solely in MH17(we can also add Gaza to that).
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Old 22nd July 2014 | 20:00
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That would imply, the rocket actually exploded above and ahead of the aircraft, while all graphics shown so far seem to show an explosion in line of the approach from below (probably making use of the momentum the warhead already has approaching at supersonic speed).
It is quite possible that the missile did intercept the aircraft from above. Most Medium Range SAM is this day and age do not fly directly towards the target from launch in the case of a long range engagement, but will fly a programmed trajectory in altitude that gets the missile to a high altitude as quickly as possible, thus reducing drag and increasing range. The missile will also either fly to a pre-programmed point in the air via use of an autopilot (with a datalink to change that point in flight if required) or track and follow the target in azimuth only. If the later, the missile's proportional navigation system will be set to a reduced maneuver mode to reduce the amount of missile maneuvering which will have to do for the majority of its flight. Both of these mid course modes again reduces drag and increases missile range. At a certain point of the missile flying it will get a command from the ground to go into terminal homing and it will steer towards the target in both pitch and yaw in a lead intercept course with no limits on the Proportional Navigation 'k' factor (which means that the missile is aiming at a point around 5 to 6 degrees in front of the missile seeker sight line on the target in the direction of target movement).

An IFF system maybe fitted to the SA-11, but without the codebook for the returns from aircraft, a totally pointless system as far as the rebels go, plus the IFF system fitted to Soviet systems was not compatible with western IFF/SSR systems which may be the case with this system (The IFF systems on earlier Soviet SAMs definitely weren't).

They may had had the camera system on the missile launcher, but if its cloudy that isn't much use for identifying the target either.
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