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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 14th Apr 2014, 16:51
  #9881 (permalink)  
 
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Asking Joe Bloggs the armchair investigator to look at satellite imagery is about as useful as asking your pet dog to go shopping for you. Tomnod and other crowd sourcing MH370 endeavours have proven this beyond doubt with their 100% false positive ratio.
In other words, the "crowd" has done just as well as the "experts" with their fancy government satellites and the SAR guys doing visual searches via planes. Everybody has come up with false positives - at least partly because they were searching in the wrong areas to begin with.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 17:13
  #9882 (permalink)  
 
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I agree with Alchad there, that's correct. Multiple hits on 'items' would indicate it was worth taking a closer look at them.


However I believe in order to make best use of crowdsourcing it has to be pretty transparent (as in Oldoberon's example) and this Tomnod effort felt anything but.


People were increasingly frustrated with the fact that apart from there being really minimal feedback on the efforts of those trying to help, there were significant delays in providing relevant data to be searched, and a lot of folk considered that the images being released did not tell the whole story - in other words, there was a feeling that they were being used in a social experiment for some purpose rather than actually providing a helpful service to the rescue endeavour.


I suspect that there is far greater intelligence available to those searching IRL and that Tomnod's images - though fascinating - did not really scratch the surface of that.


It was interesting to look at some of the images though and probably fairly educational in a broader, kind of lowbrow way.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 18:35
  #9883 (permalink)  
 
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As far as finding MH370 debris cast ashore, how about publicizing what likely (best guesses) debris would look like and offering a cash reward for the first confirmed find? Offering to pay for things often works a treat.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 18:43
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Re: Black Box Battery

About a week ago Australian TV News Channel 24 had an interview with the Black box CEO. In that interview the CEO stated that the Black box in MH370 was a 2006 model which had a 6 year replacement cycle. He stated to his records they had not replaced the batteries or serviced that equipment. Maybe the battery life as stated by Malaysia was the absolute last usable date not the manufacture's recommended maintenance schedule.
Just because the manufacturer has not seen the ULB, does not mean the battery has not been changed. Dukane will change batteries, but the also sell spares kits, and a suitably qualified component workshop (which most global airlines will have at their disposal) is more than capable of replacing the battery using those spares kits.
The MAS CEO stated that according to the maintenance records, the battery was due for replacement in June 2014. That record will have been closely scrutinised already by the Malaysian CAA. At this time I have no reason to doubt it.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 19:06
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Battery shelf life

In the April 14 PC Angus Houston kept referring to the "shelf life" of the ULB batteries as 30 days. The shelf life is 6 years. The nominal operating life is 30 days. Just a nitpick. He's clearly doing a very good job.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 19:07
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Do airlines change out the ELB batteries before the recommended date?
Yes. If the CVR / FDR goes to the workshop with the ULB still attached, the workshop is unlikely (depending on the financial situation of the airline)to release the unit with less than half life remaining.

e.g. the unit goes to W/Shop at 4 years, battery has 2 yrs remaining, battery replaced.
Replacement battery has been on the shelf for a while, only has 4 yrs remaining, more than half-life, within the w/shop release requirements. That gives 8 Yrs.

Perfectly reasonable situation.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 19:11
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Also to add, that the above is for a situation where the ULB "ends up" in the workshop.
On the aircraft, things will be different. There the ULB will only be pulled just before the expiry date
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 20:31
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As far as finding MH370 debris cast ashore, how about publicizing what likely (best guesses) debris would look like and offering a cash reward for the first confirmed find? Offering to pay for things often works a treat.
International "Law of Finds" covers this very well.
Looking at the taphonomy, the Ocean surface currents will keep any debris very near to the source, small movements towards the East, but wind driven lighter material is a different matter.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 20:34
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"International "Law of Finds" covers this very well."

Might do, but out in the back blocks of Aus as a fair bit of this coast is,
rule of "if it's interesting and useful" tends to apply to those who don't
have much contact with civilization

That is of course if they actually realize what it is from !
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 20:52
  #9890 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by GroundedSpanner
On the aircraft, things will be different. There the ULB will only be pulled just before the expiry date
I would expect it to be part of a scheduled maintenance period, ie picked up at the last maintenance period before the component expiry date.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 21:10
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Pontius, that's how it is at an airline I am familiar with, the ULB's are physically checked at the smallest routine hangar visit, and replaced if they will not make to the next check. Other airlines may track each one in their computer system and could in theory replace it on the last overnight stop prior to expiry.
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 22:55
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Bluefin 21 Technology

Here's a good link to the technical capabilities of the Bluefin 21.
Technology » Bluefin Robotics
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 23:00
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I've spent considerable time on the beaches all the way to the far north, and they are pretty clean. Strikingly so by European standards. If something evidently from an aircraft washed up on a beach there'd be a good chance of spotting it from the air, I reckon. First BUT: from Kalbarri to Shark Bay is largely tall cliffs, not beach. Second BUT: the ocean currents don't appear generally to move stuff to the WA coast from out there, so the whole question is probably moot.

There is a lot of holidaying that happens along the coast, people 4wding up the beaches, camping there for weeks at a time, etc. It would be worthwhile, I suggest, releasing official images of the most likely buoyant items that might wash up somewhere, whether that's Christmas Island or Madagascar – e.g. seat cushions, life jackets, escape slides, whatever. How many members of the public would even know what colour these items would be on an MAS 777?
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 23:52
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Media release from JACC

Media Release
15 April 2014—am

Up to nine military aircraft, two civil aircraft and 11 ships will assist in today's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Today the Australian Maritime Safety Authority has planned a visual search area totalling approximately 62,063 square kilometres. The centre of the search areas lies approximately 2,170 kilometres north west of Perth.

The Autonomous Underwater Vehicle deployed last night from ADV Ocean Shield.

After completing around six hours of its mission, Bluefin-21 exceeded its operating depth limit of 4,500 metres and its built in safety feature returned it to the surface.

The six hours of data gathered by the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle is currently being extracted and analysed.

Bluefin-21 is planned to redeploy later today when weather conditions permit.

The weather forecast for today is south easterly winds with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, sea swells up to two metres and visibility of five kilometres.

The Chief Coordinator of the Joint Agency Coordination Centre, Air Chief Marshal Angus Houston (Ret'd), will provide further updates if, and when, more information becomes available.
Media
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Old 14th Apr 2014, 23:58
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Any idea if a new AUVD that can go deeper is on its way ?
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Old 15th Apr 2014, 00:08
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Originally Posted by Toruk Macto
Any idea if a new AUVD that can go deeper is on its way ?
I think they have contracted a USA or identical german one that has a limit of 6000mtrs. Apparently there are three in the world 2 usa and one bought by German oceanographic body.
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Old 15th Apr 2014, 00:15
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How does it exceed its maximum operating depth, its automonous?

Is it in some bottom following mode for mapping purposes? Another words keep a constant height off the bottom? I would have thought if thats the case it would flag those areas and continue its mission at a constant height until it gets rising ground then go back to the original mode?
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Old 15th Apr 2014, 00:21
  #9898 (permalink)  
 
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rh200, yes it was in bottom following mode according to CNN.
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Old 15th Apr 2014, 00:50
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okay, the fish has a max depth, but the array onboard has a different depth for the scanforom the sidescan, as well as the mag or sub-bottom profiler.

the fish can auto fly above the bottom surface to maintain the proper overlap of the sidescan..

to be clear, the ss sensors are on either side of the fish and radiate downward.

the fish is programmed to be at the optimum depth above floor to cover th floor.

if the fish gets above the optimum depth, the area covered below the fish gets overlap and redundant, conversely, below, there will be gaps.
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Old 15th Apr 2014, 01:14
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Angus Houston said in the press conf yesterday that plans were a foot in regards to other options / vehicles. That was in response to a journos question.

He - and others - have been in the game long enough that they would have been looking at these types of things way out ahead as part of contingency planning, which isn't surprising considering his and others military backgrounds.

They won't we resting and waiting until they need it.
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