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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 25th Mar 2014, 23:58
  #8081 (permalink)  
 
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@nupogodi

As an forensics professional, you are aware that magnetic force microscopy has never been used to recover data off once-overwritten magnetic media. I assume you are also aware of the 2006 NIST Special Publication which stated that using magnetic force microscopy to recover data from magnetic media of any considerable density is impossible. Since you would know all this, I wonder why you would make such a statement.

It is also irrelevant since the CVR/FDR would not be recording to magnetic tape on the accident aircraft.
There is a world of difference between being technically possible and realistically achivable hence my rather tongue in cheek comment about not coming to a PC World near you anytime soon.

Without wishing to don a tin foil hat (the world must be running short of tinfoil by now if this thread is anything to go by ), consider this. The DSS sanitisation processes for hard disks requires the devices to be either degaussed (complete magnetic wipe to the point the drive becomes effectively unusable) or destroyed. One wipe cleans the drive but does not sanitise the drive which is interesting if NIST insist this recovery is impossible and one wipe sufficient... suggests to me that not everyone is buying into that being an absolute fact

Although, even if you did get a mapping of the magnetic patterns, you are a long long way from reconstructing that to meaningful data. While it may be possible, the reality is that its very unlikely anyone actually will do this. In my experience the biggest things to worry about in computer forensic examinations are encryption and dealing with what you do find and making sure you do interpret that properly.

@Coastalpilot:
Since the FBI has had the Capt's computers almost a week, I wonder if the lack of information relative to them is meaningful. Seems to me that if they had found anything of consequence we would have heard of it by now. Further it seems to me that they would have found anything incriminating by now if it were there. Does that make sense? I'm not a computer guy
I did read this on CNN about their examination of the data:
Indications files deleted closer to final Malaysian Airline flight - CNN.com

The article suggests that on the 22nd the FBI examiners were just days into the examination of what they call a large volume of data. Depending on how much data they have, it can take a while to investigate all of it. It is not uncommon for forensic investigations to take weeks if there is a considerable amount of data so no response so far is not really conclusive of anything and examiners will generally want to examine in full before drawing any conclusions.

What I would be prioritising is retrieving deleted files and seeing if I could run those files in the simulator. This does also assume nothings encrypted and password protected... if there are passwords/encryption, then this data could take many months to restore and examine.

Interestingly there is a suggestion that the Malaysians may have messed up this part of the investigation. Firstly, they waited 6 days before searching the pilots home which would have allowed someone time to amend data on that. While they have strict laws on probable cause, the time delay would be of concern about tampering.

Also there seems to be some question about how they searched and seized - the whole CSI/Hollywood scenario of walk in, switch computer on, start typing on the keyboard looking for things springs to mind. If someone has hinted to CNN that they have concerns that the evidence wasnt secured immediately there will be concerns about the integrity of the evidence and that not securing it could have altered, deleted or added data which taints the whole process and casts doubt on any results they find.

What becomes more confusing is that 3 days ago when CNN were stating FBI experts were just days into the examination, this was stating with certainty there was no evidence on the computers:
Malaysia Airlines flight: investigators find nothing suspicious in pilot's flight simulator

The question then becomes the sources of these - is one based on an examination by Malaysian forensic examiners or from the FBI? Even this becomes a mess to determine reliable sources. It would seem rather odd for the Malaysian examiners to state that there was nothing suspicious if they hadnt examined all the data and then send the drive off to the FBI for retrieval of the deleted data. But I doubt the FBI would issue such a conclusive statement this early on in the examination if they havent examined all the data yet.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 00:02
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Has the full cargo manifest been disclosed as yet?
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 00:09
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Good news from the Telegraph that the search is resuming today after yesterday's bad weather put it on hold.

"The search for wreckage of crashed Flight MH370 has resumed after the weather improved, with Chinese ships and Korean planes joining the hunt over a vast stretch of the Indian Ocean.
Gale force winds, rain and big waves prevented any sorties being flown on Tuesday but 12 aircraft will be in the air on Wednesday while Australia's HMAS Success plans to conduct a surface sweep of an area where two objects were spotted this week.
China's polar supply ship Xue Long was also due in the area, with other Chinese vessels on their way, as the search intensifies for the Malaysian Airlines jet that crashed into the sea after vanishing on March 8 with 239 passengers on board.
"Today's search is split into three areas within the same proximity covering a cumulative 80,000 square kilometres," said the Australian Maritime Safety Authority, which is coordinating the search.
"AMSA has tasked a total of 12 aircraft today to search for possible objects in the search area.""
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 00:14
  #8084 (permalink)  
 
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@RichmanJoe

TNC, PSK, IF, DA/AD....

I am sure good old RF principles will pinpoint this aircraft yet.
If one of the victims had Android APRS via cell/sat phone (Thuraya) on board, he would be a hero...
I hope the APRS guys at least had a good look at Google Maps APRS of 08 March for just such an eventuality.
I call on all Radio Amateurs to have this very easy free APRS capability in their pockets when they travel internationally....
While we are waiting on the airline industry to play GPS tracking catchup...

KC9SGV
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 00:17
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"Fox News Channel's Bill O'Reilly called this accident correctly one week prior..."

People who make definite statements without sufficient data are either not very clear thinkers or they are demagogues who want to be able to point back later and say, "See, I was right" (or have their followers do so for them).
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 00:50
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It is not uncommon for forensic investigations to take weeks
While factually true, it's not relevant to what will have been discovered by now.

In my day-job I'm a cyber-forensic analyst. The very first thing I'd do on that drive is a run a timeliner - a program that extracts file events from the life of the drive. That is accesses, deletions, creations, moves etc. Timelining is by file-system nature incomplete but usually accurate. Luckily deletion events tend to hang around and also luckily, ensembles of events can give a pretty good picture of what happened even if many individual events are missing.

Timeliners can be run in minutes.

The investigators will already know with a high degree of certainty the macro events that happened on the drives over the past weeks and months. For instance installation or deletion of packages and system updates and when programs were last used. They will also have been able to recover most of the recently deleted files and fragments of files deleted some time ago (months to years).

They will have a full record of internet activity including web sites visited, search terms used. They will even have 'image' snapshots of many of the pages visited.

One thing that makes it more difficult is use of a secure deletion program. The actual content of files will be gone, but many of the file events will remain. Secure deletion would be a serious red-flag for investigators.

In conclusion. They already know everything they need to know / can know about the data.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 00:51
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Anyone know how many Vessels are now at the search areas ? seems thus far to have been a lack of vessels...with objects being sighted but so far unable to have been picked up.....any heli's available ?
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 00:58
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ICAO Annex 12 - Initial Response

SunnySA
Quote:
Wouldn't the initial SAR actions rest with Vietnamese ATC?


Yes, sort of, but the point I was trying to make was that the Malaysian authorities did not initiate timely action (i.e. within 30 mins. of loosing transponder/radar/radio contact) to coordinate an S&R effort until it was basically too late; then, yes, the Vietnamese ATC would be the first to be contacted for assistance, followed by Thailand or whoever it was whose radar tracked MH340 turning around.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 00:59
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Still very early days in this investigation and at this stage we have no idea if the cause will ever finally be established beyond doubt.

One current line of thought is the pilot suicide one. I sincerely hope this does not prove to be the case. We already see some aviation authorities twitching at this likelihood - the DGCA in India is reported as looking at introducing psychometric testing for pilots as a result of MH370 even before the cause is declared (or even known):-

[URL="http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/dgca-looking-at-mandatory-psychometric-tests-for-pilots-in-india-114032500763_1.html"]

I believe the DMT (Defence Mechanism Test) has been used by the Swedish military; it is felt that this eliminates individuals who are not up to the task before money gets spent on training them. Other slightly authoritarian countries possibly also test in this way. Yet overall I think that most informed opinion would query the value of any similar tests for commercial pilots simply on the basis of their validity. Many false positives would almost certainly result; indeed it would perhaps be that results needed to err on that side. This would simply debar many otherwise suitable individuals from the profession for very questionable reasons, at any stage of their career. We all can see that making flight crew pass through airport security and have, say, a jar of aftershave or a leatherman removed from their bag would go nowhere near preventing a pilot bent on destroying his/her aircraft; psychological evaluations would be equally futile. How often would they be undertaken - after all, a person's mental state of health can be very changeable over time. I would argue that peer concern/CRM/good open company management culture is a far more effective defence against this sort of act. That said, no doubt certain commercial organisations would see a good business opportunity in providing such services, aviation being perceived as a cash cow, and may well start pushing for this as well as some more nervous regulators wishing to demonstrate their grasp of the situation.

A professional pilot, military or commercial, goes through much rigorous selection and evaluation to get their licence and they then have continuous assessment of their ability and competency for the rest of their careers. No other profession comes close to being regularly and repeatedly assessed in such a fashion. That as final arbiters of safety of their aircraft they are made to endure humiliating "security" checks is bad enough; there is no need for this further knee-jerk reaction to what may or may not have happened in this instance.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:01
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Latest charts are extremely interesting, but they don't quite add up to me.

I actually sat down and tried to derive Doppler offsets by hand.

* The range of values in the chart is not right for 1.6 GHz - they should be much larger.
* It looks like we're looking at absolute values, not raw frequency shifts. The peak at 18:25 UTC corresponds to the time when the aircraft was flying directly westwards, towards the satellite. At 00:11, it was flying away from the satellite. These two points should have opposite signs of Doppler shift.
* The difference between "predicted north track" and "predicted south track" is WAY too large to explain by nonzero satellite orbit inclination or eccentricity. Satellite has inclination of 1.7 degrees, apogee of 35816 km and perigee of 35769 km. That's maximum speed of ~175 knots perpendicular to Earth-satellite axis in the north-south direction, and something negligible like 4 knots along the axis. Perpendicular component enters with a factor of at most ~0.11. Its absolute contribution is largest at the end of the track, when the satellite is contributing 20 knots and the aircraft is flying away from the satellite at the speed of 230 knots (total speed 450 kts, projecting on the aircraft-satellite axis leaves 230.) During the period up to ~21:00, when the aircraft is still near the equator, the effect of satellite inclination should be very small. Anyone is welcome to repeat these calculations.

Ultimately, I don't think that the chart is comparing the south track towards south Indian Ocean against its mirror image. In fact, a good fit for the "north track" would be the route that goes to Straits of Malacca and then turns and heads for Beijing. That's the only way to arrive at a high Doppler shift early on, at 20:00 to 21:00 (because the aircraft is to the east of the satellite and moving northeast, while the satellite is moving south). They could also be comparing against a track that heads northeast initially and then hugs the 40 degree arc through Burma and Tibet.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:11
  #8091 (permalink)  
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use of a secure deletion program would be....

...a red flag alright. running a defrag however would essentially perform the same function. you could tell a drive has been defragged, but that's about it, and wouldn't be unusual.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:19
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Looks like the search conditions today will be very difficult, how they can spot a 20m piece of wreckage in this, professional indeed.

Somewhat frightening video from search boat here. (Telegraph UK)

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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:20
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Relatives of those lost are starting to get agitated.

The group shoved past police officers as they left their hotel, arriving on foot at the embassy about 40 minutes later. The street was crowded with journalists, police officers and people trying to get past police roadblocks to reach some of the other embassies on the block, including the American, Israeli and French embassies. A line of paramilitary police officers then blocked the road and prevented journalists from following the marchers.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:26
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A few thoughts from a man who designed bits and pieces of the missing airplane

Gentlemen-
Let me share a few thoughts from a man who designed bits and pieces of the missing airplane, and probably bits and pieces of half the jets you folks fly on.

You should be highly suspicious of these stories about fires. Have any of you folks ever seen a cargo compartment smoke test? Modern jetliners will detect a burnt napkin in a space the size of a living room in under 3 minutes.

You should be highly suspicious of stories of large volumes of smoke propagating out of the cargo compartment. Thatís because after we supplier types detect a teensy puff of smoke in all that big space, the airframer types goes back and flood it with smoke so dense you can hardly see and makes sure not one bit of smoke comes up into the passenger compartment.

Those folks at Hamilton arenít sitting still, neither. Once we find smoke, they turn off the air conditioning fans and turn up the packs to keep smoke downstairs.

Now youíre going to say to me, what about Swissair? To which Iíll say, no modern jetliner is lined with insulation blankets made of tinder and oily rags, and no competent designer wires up a disreputable pile of entertainment boxes so the breakers wonít trip when it arcs.

Did the fire burn a hole in the fuselage and decompress it? Well, I have to say I followed the 787 lithium battery incident in great detail and was privileged to see pictures of the damage. That fire didnít burn through a plastic fuselage. I would say it beggars the imagination to come up with a fire that burns through an aluminum skin without setting off a smoke detection a considerable time previous.

What about carbon monoxide? Well, youíre going to have to tell me what could generate CO in the airplane without making detectable smoke. Have you ever been on a jetliner when an engine leaked some of that wonderful fireproof oil they use? Itís a smell youíre not going to forget, let me tell you!

Now youíre going to say, what about a fire in the avionics? Most new jetliners automatically goes into smoke override, and the 777 is no exception. I have not personally witnessed it, but Iím told the override clears smoke so dense you canít see the instruments in under 90 seconds.

And now letís talk wiring Ė did you know that we have to supply extra long wire bundles for critical equipment? Thatís because the airframers have to meet FAA separation requirements. So now your undetected fire has to burn through two different redundant wire bundles kept over 12 feet apart. Thatís a darned big undetected fire! This is a modern jetliner Ė everything is multiply redundant to the point of absurdity.

If that isnít enough, read this excellent post by Albert Driver, who covers all the points I didnít:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8396452
And auraflyer: http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8401172

Now I canít say there isnít some magic bullet that takes out the transponder and disables ACARS and depressurizes the airplane but somehow leaves the plane able to fly to fuel exhaustion after making several apparently commanded turn. Maybe some near impossible common mode failure in the load management system shut down a dozen isolated, multiply redundant systems without bringing up the backups. But Iíll tell you, itís darned hard to believe.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:29
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@wantion - Three Chinese warships, two Chinese patrol/SAR vessels, the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long, and HMAS Success.
The warships are the amphibious landing ship Kunlunshan, the missile destroyer Haikou and the supply ship Qiandaohu.

Rescue vessels Haixun 01 and Nanhaijiu 101 have also been tasked to the search area. These are high-speed Coastguard-style patrol vessels around 1500 tons. They're nearly new and cutting edge patrol vessels.
They have helipads and high-speed, crane-launched inflatables, and it appears that at least the Haikou has one helicopter aboard.

The Kunlunshan is reported as carrying 4 x Frelon Z-8 helicopters. The Haikou is reported as carrying 1 x Kamov KA-27 or 1 x Harbin Z-9C. The Qiandaohu is reported as having 1 x Frelon Z-8.

No helicopter on the HMAS Success, debris recovery by the Success is by launch of small craft.
The Success tried unsuccessfuly to recover the debris spotted Monday afternoon by aircraft, on Monday night, but failed to find the reported debris and had to leave the area due to deteriorating weather and sea conditions.

Type 071 Amphibious dock ship - Kunlunshan - Type 071 amphibious transport dock - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Type 052C destroyer - Haikou - Type 052C destroyer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Type 903 supply ship - Qiandaohu - Type 903 replenishment ship - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Chinaīs largest rescue vessel Haixun 01 heads toward Singapore CCTV News - CNTV English

Chinese rescue vessel Nanhaijiu 101 heads toward Singapore - Xinhua | English.news.cn
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:32
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This event reminds me of the Apollo 13 incident. Not the actual incident or cause, but the response to it.

An event that occurred which had not been thought of, or tested, or trained for.

The response by multiple organisations and individuals working the problem, doing the improbable, thinking outside the square, performing tasks that would normally take extensive resources and time, and developing multi-level solutions.

Consider the multiple employment disciplines involved in this event, science, aviation, satellite techology, computer and mobile phone technology, weather and marine science, data analysists, to name but a few.

If there is a positive outcome to this situation, I think these actions will add to our extensive knowledge and provide solutions for future events and improvement to not only aviation but all facets of life.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:45
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Thank you all who have put in their input, relevant/pertinent, farcical/fanciful or any which way.

The lack of facts made even the conspiracy theories useful : after all up to the time mh370's black box is found, we are only scenario painting.

For the the few professionals who were worried that some info compromised operational security, fear not : the bad guys are smarter these days.

Some crew took exception to contributions by non professionals, please get off that high chair (you won't be an air jock if you were so smart) : those contributors are your "out of the box" hive of ideas improving the forum's collective neuronal bandwidth.


Thank you PPRUNE et al.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 01:49
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SupplierSam - An excellent post that effectively debunks the much-vaunted fire scenario, thank you.
All that remains is destruction of electrical and mechanical components by flying shards of external debris. I have heard no mention of an uncontained engine explosion, and whether both engines were still functioning after the deviation from the original flight path? And I'm personally still suspicious of space debris, which often contains some mighty durable metals.
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 02:13
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Many thanks onetrack Excellent info !

Seems like they have got resources now in place to get the job done...if the weather will just abate! My hope and best wishes to the crews out there in tough conditions....for all the Math and predictions its up to them now and just hard yakka to finally prove that plane went down as expected

..Is Australia short on vessels? ...just wondering..no heli on Success either..yet it has a pad?

@wantion - Three Chinese warships, two Chinese patrol/SAR vessels, the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long, and HMAS Success.
The warships are the amphibious landing ship Kunlunshan, the missile destroyer Haikou and the supply ship Qiandaohu.

Rescue vessels Haixun 01 and Nanhaijiu 101 have also been tasked to the search area. These are high-speed Coastguard-style patrol vessels around 1500 tons. They're nearly new and cutting edge patrol vessels.
They have helipads and high-speed, crane-launched inflatables, and it appears that at least the Haikou has one helicopter aboard.

The Kunlunshan is reported as carrying 4 x Frelon Z-8 helicopters. The Haikou is reported as carrying 1 x Kamov KA-27 or 1 x Harbin Z-9C. The Qiandaohu is reported as having 1 x Frelon Z-8.

No helicopter on the HMAS Success, debris recovery by the Success is by launch of small craft.
The Success tried unsuccessfuly to recover the debris spotted Monday afternoon by aircraft, on Monday night, but failed to find the reported debris and had to leave the area due to deteriorating weather and sea conditions.

Type 071 Amphibious dock ship - Kunlunshan - Type 071 amphibious transport dock - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Type 052C destroyer - Haikou - Type 052C destroyer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Type 903 supply ship - Qiandaohu - Type 903 replenishment ship - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Chinaīs largest rescue vessel Haixun 01 heads toward Singapore CCTV News - CNTV English

Chinese rescue vessel Nanhaijiu 101 heads toward Singapore - Xinhua | English.news.cn
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Old 26th Mar 2014, 02:20
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Auto fuel balancing

VinRouge, NO the 777 does not auto balance fuel. B787 has a auto fuel balance system, however you still have to push a switch to turn the system on.
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