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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:27
  #3501 (permalink)  
 
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Which could be explained by a mid-air collision, most likely with a drone of some sort. The impact led to damage of the 777, most likely took out various antennas, perhaps debris damaged the cockpit, but the initial impact did not bring the plane down. It continued to fly for some time and eventually fell into the ocean.
Agree and it could have been the drone that was identified on radar that was heading west whilst the 777 continued east unnoticed.
Authenticity of ACARS data can be challenged as per 9/11 conspiracy theorists.
Jet fuel on surface was dumped (by accomplices) to create red herring, only they were not clued up on the chemical signatures of different brands.
An eyewitness of an aircraft crash from 200 kms away would probably be a world first, what was the furthest distance anyone observed the Space Shuttle Challenger exploding at 65000ft?

These theories are as easy to discredit as they are to create...after a week of international creative problem solving there is a dustbin fill of quasi facts and fanciful theories circulating the garbage web to keep the Mythbusters team busy forever.

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Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:29
  #3502 (permalink)  
 
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What about the contact a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Narita 30min ahead of MH370 made on 121,5 after it disappeared and failed to check in with Vietnamese ATC - they heard mumbling and static from MH370.
Guess this contact is recored by (several) ground stations.
Here you could (maybe) hear if there are any signs of hypoxia, state of AC (background noise etc).
Find it strange this have barely been mentioned at all...
Or is this contact also a hoax?

Also, they ought to check/know if "Allright, goodnight" was common practice by these pilots, or the pilot on the R/T doing that last conversation.
If they usually were by-the-book pilots regarding R/T, its a bit strange with this R/T - again: first signs of hypoxia?
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:34
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So, question to 777 jockeys here: Does the 777 FMS (or any for that fact) store any previous flight plans up to a certain amount? Or is a flight plan gone once you wipe it and put the next plan in the following day say?
Most regular routes are preprogrammed and called up on demand to save having to sit and laboriously enter every waypoint. However to select and activate a new route requires at least 4 menu options and selections ( depending what point you are in the FMS) Never heard of any occurrence as you are suggesting.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:37
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If the aircraft flew extra 5 hours the voice recorder would now be erased for the time of disappearance , unless it was disabled as well , then it would contain the required data if found. FDR would have all the parameters , unless it was switched off during initial climb and masking the entire scenario , the recorders may not have the answers.
I think the CIA should visit these jokers making fake videos and youtube you need to ban some people.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:42
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Investigator: Missing plane flew over Malaysia

8:08 AM Saturday Mar 15, 2014




Investigators are increasingly certain the missing Malaysian Airlines jet turned back across the country after its last radio contact with air traffic controllers, and that someone with aviation skills was responsible for the change in course, a Malaysian government official said.
A Breaking News report by CNN says a classified analysis of electronic and satellite data conducted by the United States and Malaysian governments shows Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 likely crashed into the Indian Ocean on one of two flight paths. One flight path suggests the plane crashed into the Bay of Bengal off the coast of India; the other has it traveling southeast and crashing elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, according to the analysis.
A US official said in Washington that investigators are examining the possibility of "human intervention" in the plane's disappearance, adding it may have been "an act of piracy." The official, who wasn't authorized to talk to the media and spoke on condition of anonymity, said it also was possible the plane may have landed somewhere.

While other theories are still being examined, the official said key evidence for the human intervention is that contact with the Boeing 777's transponder stopped about a dozen minutes before a messaging system on the jet quit.




The Malaysian official, who also declined to be identified because he is not authorized to brief the media, said only a skilled person could navigate the plane the way it was flown after its last confirmed location over the South China Sea.
Earlier Friday, acting Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said the country had yet to determine what happened to the plane after it dropped off civilian radar and ceased communicating with the ground around 40 minutes into the flight to Beijing on March 8.
He said investigators were still trying to establish with certainty that military radar records of a blip moving west across the Malay Peninsula into the Strait of Malacca showed Flight MH370.
"I will be the most happiest person if we can actually confirm that it is the MH370, then we can move all (search) assets from the South China Sea to the Strait of Malacca," he told reporters. Until then, he said, the international search effort would continue expanding east and west from the plane's last confirmed location.




The Malaysian official said it had now been established with a "more than 50 percent" degree of certainty that military radar had picked up the missing plane.
On Thursday, a U.S. official said the plane remained airborne after losing contact with air traffic control, sending a signal to establish contact with a satellite. The Malaysian official confirmed this, referring to the process by its technical term of a "handshake."
Boeing offers a satellite service that can receive a stream of data on how an aircraft is functioning in flight and relay the information to the plane's home base. Malaysia Airlines didn't subscribe to that service, but the plane still had the capability to connect with the satellite and was automatically sending signals, or pings, said the U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to discuss the situation by name.




Hishammuddin said the government would only release information about the signals when they were verified.
"I hope within a couple of days to have something conclusive," he told a news conference.
Malaysia has faced accusations it isn't sharing all its information or suspicions about the plane's final movements. It insists it is being open, and says it would be irresponsible to narrow the focus of the search until there is undeniable evidence of the plane's flight path.
No theory has been ruled out in one of modern aviation's most puzzling mysteries.
But it now appears increasingly certain the plane didn't experience a catastrophic incident over the South China Sea as was initially seen as the most likely scenario. Some experts believe it is possible that one of the pilots, or someone with flying experience, hijacked the plane for some later purpose or committed suicide by plunging the aircraft into the sea.




Mike Glynn, a committee member of the Australian and International Pilots Association, said he considers pilot suicide to be the most likely explanation for the disappearance, as was suspected in a SilkAir crash during a flight from Singapore to Jakarta in 1997 and an EgyptAir flight in 1999.
"A pilot rather than a hijacker is more likely to be able to switch off the communications equipment," Glynn said. "The last thing that I, as a pilot, want is suspicion to fall on the crew, but it's happened twice before."
Glynn said a pilot may have sought to fly the plane into the Indian Ocean to reduce the chances of recovering data recorders, and to conceal the cause of the disaster.
Scores of aircraft and ships from 12 countries are involved in the search, which reaches into the eastern stretches of the South China Sea and on the western side of the Malay Peninsula, northwest into the Andaman Sea and the India Ocean.
India said it was using heat sensors on flights over hundreds of uninhabited Andaman Sea islands Friday and would expand the search for the missing jet farther west into the Bay of Bengal, more than 1,600 kilometers (100 miles) to the west of the plane's last known position. Spokesman Col. Harmit Singh of India's Tri-Services Command said it began land searches after sweeping seas to the north, east and south of the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
A team of five U.S. officials with air traffic control and radar expertise - three from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and two from the Federal Aviation Administration - has been in Kuala Lumpur since Monday to assist with the investigation.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:45
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"If the aircraft flew extra 5 hours the voice recorder would now be erased for the time of disappearance, unless it was disabled as well"
Are you one of those people who thinks CVRs still work on a thirty minute loop? The CVR will still have the previous three flights recorded on it, even if they flew on for 5h. It's not the 1960s for god's sake.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:56
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Preprogrammed route theory is a red-herring, since the alleged route flown by the airplane makes no sense. It is a zig zag.

Could an unqualified person (i.e. non pilot) looking at the HSI and heading towards a waypoint have done that?

Get real - today even 8 y.o.s run flight sims on their tablets. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that if you select a value in the HDG window on the MCP - that is the direction the plane is going to fly. But to know that the wp you see on the HSI is in fact a virtual point somewhere over the ocean - that is a different story.

Mid air collision = fuel patch on ocean.

Pilots become incapacitated. Plane make erratic climb/descent.

Someone attempts to take over controls (ala Helios) - pax, cc, maybe someone who is going for a ppl/cpl? Doesn't know how to operate radio (hence garbled RC). Doesn't understand nav displays (hence goes from wp to wp, hoping it is an airport).

Collision explains why local authorities reluctant to share primary radar data.

FFS, a patch of jetfuel on the ocean at LKP, you can't just dismiss that.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:56
  #3508 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aussiepax
As SLF, if a flight I am on turns gradually by 150 degrees, I notice it. Not all are oblivions.
The human balance system can't detect small changes in direction (but is very good at detecting sudden changes). A commercial flight could do a 180 degree turn in around five minutes at night with no one noticing it on board.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 23:58
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Originally Posted by Dick Spanner
amongst lots of other systems this would take out the FMS so no information to the moving map in the cabin and the flight instrument display system, But the Satcom C/Bs are in the MEC, downstairs, so the satcom would still be logged on to a satellite, (pinging ?), the aircraft could be flown on basic, standby instruments and raw navigation,
But that doesn't seem to match the alleged proper adherance to the official Airways when flying west?!

This whole thing remains really mysterious. Are we (the public) receiving only just incomplete or also false information from the different parties involved?

Here's really hoping FDR + CVR will be found in a readable condition since it is the only hope to end all this speculation.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:06
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Kudos to the former AAIB investigator who was the only person on Channel 5's panel who declined the invitation at the close of the programme to speculate on what was behind MH370's disappearance.

No comment on the "security expert" panellist who posited a cyber-attack.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:09
  #3511 (permalink)  
 
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As SLF, if a flight I am on turns gradually by 150 degrees, I notice it. Not all are oblivions.
Then you're doing better than me or the pilot was ham-fisted. I was on a US Air A320 and the only way I could tell that the pilot started a racetrack holding pattern was looking out the window. And I'm a pilot.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:10
  #3512 (permalink)  
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Anyone know if there were any positioning Tech Crew on the flight?
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:12
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If you have a fire, depressurizing is a normal procedure in many cargo aircraft since there is no fire protection system on the main deck. 777 freighter has this procedure. The problem off course with passengers is that you automatically activate the passenger oxygen system and re-establish oxygen generation on the main deck, which is exactly what you are trying to avoid.

As far as the different flightplans work: a different flightplan could very will have "survived" on route 2 when there has never really been a complete shutdown (it might be removed if you change the databases during preflight, I'm not sure, but that happens not very frequent...). But activating a flightplan on the other route 2 page pretty quickly can lead to "not on intercept heading" if I recall quickly. So I don't really consider it something that can happen "by accident".
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:13
  #3514 (permalink)  
 
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The shuttle Challenger exploded at 50,000 feet. Not 65.000 feet.

Columbia was noted to be breaking up by observers in California so an awful lot of visibility before Columbia finally disintegrated.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:13
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ABC News reports that two data systems were switched off with an interval of 14 minutes.

First at 1:07 AM the data transmission system was not sending data anymore, then at 1.21 AM the transponder did not sent any data.

ABC suggest this was done deliberatley.

The 'ping data' to satellites is the only system which cannot be shutdown manually.

Malaysia Airline Search Intensifies in Two Widely Separated Areas - ABC News
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:16
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Originally Posted by Tourist
Aisle2c

"Tourist, whatever about the sarcasm, if it helps find the plane (or remnants of) quickly, then it should be done."

Why, exactly?

It seems to me that avoiding potential future causes of trouble is more important than finding a crash site.

Once you are dead, you are dead.
Forever.

The only time constraint is to spare the families anguish. That is valid, but not as important as avoiding future anguish.

No, the likelihood of saving anyone is remote, but getting to the crash site quickly will help in the recovery of as much of the aircraft as possible, which can help in explaining what happened.


As we currently can see, they don't even know what ocean the plane is in.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:16
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Crew select some routing in FMS. However they select the wrong one and continue with Hypoxia getting worse.
This doesn't make much sense.
A crew experiencing hypoxia would be donning masks and not playing with an FMS (assuming a competent crew). There would be a blaring horn and red master light blinking - this would occupy their attention, not FMS.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:18
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The shuttle Challenger exploded at 50,000 feet. Not 65.000 feet.
It initially exploded at 45000 feet and continued to 65000 feet.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:19
  #3519 (permalink)  
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To those concerned about censorship.

About twice a year, since I joined PPRuNe in April 1997, either Danny or Rob have explained why posts on threads such as this get deleted, if a post is frivolous, repetitive, asks questions already answered, makes statements that clearly show the poster hasn't bothered to read the previous pages, makes really stupid claims, like 'aliens' etc. makes a post that is quite irrelevant, then they will be deleted, as they contribute nothing to the discussion and take up unnecessary space. It isn't 'censorship', as some suggest, it is good house keeping and goes some way towards reducing the amount of fatuous 'glue' that the aviation professionals here have to wade through.
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Old 15th Mar 2014, 00:20
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Star navigation

As an insomniac SLF and being mostly awake during night flights, I can tell looking at the sky at night if the plane is changing direction. I can even tell you which direction that would be, where are the planets if any are visible, trace the ecliptic and guess the approximate local time without looking at my watch. Ancient mariners had this skill practised a thousand times better than I. Do you mean to tell me that pilots would not know to navigate by the stars?

Last edited by Titania; 15th Mar 2014 at 00:23. Reason: added one word
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