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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:00
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Seafloor 'event'

I'm sure you already read this link , btw I think is sadly a lot more realistic than the "Hunt of the Andamane" (more a movie plot to cover technical failure of aircraft).
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:02
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Oil slicks in South Chine Sea

I saw the live conference on BBC 1. The Transport minister said 2 oil slicks found near the last point of contact - first had jet fuel but was not from MH370 (not explained how and not questioned by press), the second did not have jet fuel.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:03
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Originally Posted by grayton
Now CNN seems to be pushing a 'lithium batteries did this' theory. Any evidence?
None. The 24hr news cycle requires talking heads, many have their own axes to grind and almost all will hope that what they said is forgotten when the aircraft is eventually found.

Like the decompression theory, burning Li Ion batteries in the hold cannot explain the aircraft logging off ACARS (not just dropping out) then ten minutes later switching of the transponders, then turning West and flying for another few hours. (Assuming all that information is correct)
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:05
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bias

We should be careful not to dismiss a potential line of enquiry simply out of hope & bias; there is denial by some posters here...


Comms black-out
No mayday
Course deviation
Multiple controlled heading changes
STD Nav waypoints used
Sustained flight far beyond LKP
Massive SAR operation
No wreckage
Evidence of aircraft powered 5 hrs after LKP


Before rejecting scenarios involving ill-intent, note the language currently being used by professionals closest to the investigation:
"key evidence of human intervention"
"an act of piracy"
"deliberately flown off course"
"nefarious reason"


We can hope this isn't what we all suspect it might be, but lets not let our own bias cloud what is looking increasingly like an intentional act of one kind or another...


Cheers,
Wolf
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:05
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re: post 3409 hence setting the Transponder to STBY will stop all this and reason they may think they are going to stop tracking by doing so.

Last edited by Reders; 15th Mar 2014 at 11:28.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:05
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Spill of water/liquid over the Aft Aisle Stand

A plausible scenario, seen all the circumstances, seems a huge spill of water/liquid over the Aft Aisle Stand where the TCAS+radios (3 VHF/HF?SATELLITE) are located.

"Just in case......the Aft Aisle Stand is just behind the trust levers in the middle of the 2 pilots. If you seat in the jump seat us just in front of you."

Any significant liquid spill over the Aft Aisle Stand would:
- explain the sudden lost of TCAS why comms ceased
- explain why many other downlink data got lost not at the same time.

Having heard stories about UFO, landing on a remote island, mid-air collision and stuff, allow me to share some other plausible scenario.

At the moment, without trying to speculate because no one has the crystal ball, I do believe this scenario might make sense.

The sequence of short circuit, the fumes in the cockpit, the leak of liquid in the lower Electronic compartment, can do the rest.....including shut down all the Equipment Cooling after 30 minutes at that altitude loosing all the CRTs in the cockpit.

"Just in case the CRTs are the cathode ray tube where all the data are displayed to the pilots. 777 got 6 of those."

At night, with no comms + smoke/fumes in the cockpit and all the CRTs blank there are almost no chances.
That is it. Then we can go back to why the Malaysian Government is acting in an awkward way, why international help has not been officially requested yet, bla bla bla.
Those reasons are obviously all money/reputation related behaviours.
Can't wait to see a solution to all this, because after been flying for 27 years+ really cant figure out what really happened.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:10
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MH370 has not been found anywhere near it's last established position because it is not there.
I would not exclude the possibility that the SAR was just unable to find the plane at that location. (currents, debris burrowed in the ocean floor, lack of appropriate resources, bad luck, choose one). I may have missed something, but it seems that there ain't an official source confirming that signals were in fact received after the last known position. Just unnamed "sources".

Regards.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:11
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NYTimes reporting American officials have said there were significant changes in altitude at point of last contact. Climbed to 45,000ft followed by a sharp turn to the West. Uneven descent to 23,000ft. Malaysian military radar is noted as the source of this information.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:12
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OleOle

yes, however, that requires the ping to be a positive one. Your router at home can also only operate once you set it up to contain your specific data. It will however query a line in default setting in any case.

My point is, can we be absolutely certain that a device on board without subscription will be set up individually? And who would have done this?
I think the device will have an IMEI number assigned at manufacture.

I don't know if that gets transmitted.

The Inmarsat press release did not admit much uncertainty in their identification
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:12
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45k at the point of last contact is going to take some explaining........
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:12
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I consider this to be a fairly important point

Last radar contact at 2.15 in malacca strait. The position being suggested could quite easily have been UAE405 or UAE343 which would have been pretty much on top of this location at that time. They would have seen it or is the military mixing up this blip as it is also a 777?

Just my 2 cents

Robbie

Last edited by sterion75; 14th Mar 2014 at 22:55.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:13
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Originally Posted by SeenItAll
Agreed that the "triangulation" that would be used would likely not be based on signal strength because the difference in power attenuation would be miniscule between satellites, the atmospheric fade would be different, and because power is measured not to an adequate level of precision. But time can be and is measured to exquisite levels of precision. Differences in time of receipt of signal from satellites is how GPS works. To the extent that location can be inferred, it would be inferred from the difference in time that each satellite received the signal from the aircraft. But unlikely that more than two satellites received a signal, so you would not be working with triangulation, which can resolve to a point on a plane. You would be working with biangulation (is that a word?), which can only resolve to a line. But that would still be extremely useful.
Looking at the INMARSAT footprint maps the aircraft if flying west would be in overlapping cover from two satellites. Add in a secret squirrel with a capability on the same frequency and triangulation might be feasible.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:14
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If it is an act of piracy, I don't see that they would need to land the plane on a runway. They could land it on the sea, particularly if they were indifferent to the risk of a water landing. If they then had a reception committee to collect any diverted cargo, they would still have accomplished their mission.

That still presumes some kind of valuable cargo of course...
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:15
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Moving ahead

"Whatever happens I can see a mandated introduction of GPS location reporting for all long haul aircraft relaying constant position reports via a secure sat comms link with no access or control function from from flight deck"


^^^^^^^This, or something along those lines.


Other factors highlighted from MH370 include poor check-in procedures that need to be redressed (not only at KUL but many airports).


There have been concerns expressed by many pilots, that theoretically it is possible to exclude a fellow pilot from the flight deck, how this can be combatted is another issue.


Personally I have pushed for greater psychological evaluations in the past, rather than the odd questions, "so any problems at home" (and I am not inferring anything regarding this flight crew).


And the basics of noshos and procedures highlight the fact unless all procedures are followed to the book, then we increase the risk of an incident.


Sadly we are put under pressure to meet your timeslot to avoid delay (for numerous reasons).


Above all it requires better internal auditing of crews and their procedures, and this includes every facet of the operation.


I am not saying any reasons above caused this incident or could have prevented it, but it does show we have cracks in our systems (and this is systemic throughout the industry).


The reasons for this disappearance will not be known until we find the T7 and when the reason is known, we can implement new or improved checks in. That said, sometimes our worst enemy is complacency or "she'll be right mate".
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:15
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Mention has been made that although the flight was not full (with 50 or more unoccupied seats) there were passengers who flew standby. The reason given for this in this thread was that cargo uplift may have limited passenger capacity.

Question - how often does routine cargo on a passenger flight displace this much passenger uplift capacity?

If it was revealed that the cargo included a heavy valuable substance weighing as much as 50 passengers and their baggage, how many reading this thread would change their mind as to likely cause?


Pax list also contained some 30 odd state of the art cyber warfare techies and execs from 5 global organisations, many with direct links to China. Coincidence?
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:17
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The plotted path

as it is best understood




as provided by
Disparition du Vol MH370 : la zone de recherche étendue à l?Océan Indien | Air Info

This is the path before adding on the new statement from the US/Malaysia team, which indicates around the end point of the plotted path one of two directions were taken - one in the SW direction toward MEMEK and one nearly due north toward SANAR

According to CNN, the US and India have basically determined one of those directions is where the plane will be found, and that is where the two Countries will be looking headed froward
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:17
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Has there ever been a Case that Autopilot does 'weird' things after electrical failure, and Crew being unable due to any reason.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:18
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Sharp Changes in Altitude and Course After Jet Lost Contact

This just released by the NY Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/wo...14&nlid=145194
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:20
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Quote 'live chat on channel 5 in uk currently, not sure how credible panel is...

Correction...after listening to the pilot on there its channel 5 fodder, hardly surprising i guess.' End Quote

Oh my, some dozy 'whatever' just put across a 'cyber hijack' as a credible theory

Righto
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 22:20
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Via CNN:

A classified analysis of electronic and satellite data, conducted by the United States and Malaysian governments, calculates Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 likely crashed into the Indian Ocean on one of two possible flight paths, CNN has learned.

One flight path suggests the plane crashed into the Bay of Bengal off the coast of India, and the other has it traveling southeast and crashing in the Indian Ocean, according to the analysis.
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