Airbus 380 loses engine, goes 5000 miles
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1. I think you're misunderstanding the use of the phrase "simple failure". It's being coined as such to differentiate a flame-out in this case due to an apparent fuel pump failure and a catastrophic failure leading to multiple system failures.
2. Fully agree on this point
3. And here, but as I say in my previous post INPUT is helpful - or maybe I should say can be...
4. Unpleasantly present? Why? Surely you're used to it by now
5. Indeed. Deal with it...
6. Don't dig at all here. I agree with you.
7. Probability. Maybe no one should ever fly at all. Ever!
They did the job well. The only drama is from the ranks of prunists who have no idea of 380 ops!
2. Fully agree on this point
3. And here, but as I say in my previous post INPUT is helpful - or maybe I should say can be...
4. Unpleasantly present? Why? Surely you're used to it by now
5. Indeed. Deal with it...
6. Don't dig at all here. I agree with you.
7. Probability. Maybe no one should ever fly at all. Ever!
They did the job well. The only drama is from the ranks of prunists who have no idea of 380 ops!
glofish
And not only 380 ops - but 707, DC8, VC10, 747 and all 4 engine ops in general!
And not only 380 ops - but 707, DC8, VC10, 747 and all 4 engine ops in general!
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Glofish, your take on the issues are valid. Effective risk control is founded on an effective health and safety management system but that differs from country to country. We can look to frequency and severity data to judge risk but in most cases it is only after an accident when exhaustive investigation into casual factors, failures of compliance, proficiency and decision making processes results in remedial action.
Whilst we agree safety is paramount let us not forget the complex interaction of pilot and technology indicated a landing in Dubai which the A380 didn't achieve.
Whilst we agree safety is paramount let us not forget the complex interaction of pilot and technology indicated a landing in Dubai which the A380 didn't achieve.
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Originally Posted by sober lark
complex interaction of pilot and technology indicated a landing in Dubai which the A380 didn't achieve.
Indeed safety is paramount and is how I fly my aeroplane. At the same time, as captains, we are also responsible for running an efficient and smooth operation... Taking all factors into account naturally!
Originally Posted by sober lark
We can look to frequency and severity data to judge risk but in most cases it is only after an accident when exhaustive investigation into casual factors, failures of compliance, proficiency and decision making processes results in remedial action.
And again, it was a single engine failure. Everything else was working. No accident; which nullifies your above quote in this case!
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Let me clarify some position:
There are two very separate issues at stake. One is the economical, the other the safety aspect. We all agree that we want safety to come before economics.
This thread deals with the legal possibility of 4-engined aircraft to continue almost unlimited with an engine failure. Although we should not compare with twins, because they are bound to land asap in the same situation, we can’t discard a comparison because ultimately the advantage of being able to continue represents an economical advantage, or no one in his right mind would continue with a failure of a vital component if not.
There is an inherent danger to blur the line between the two issues, safety and economics, if the possibility exists. The companies and their managers are only measured by profit, never by safety margins, unless there is an accident. Then suddenly however, the safety issue pops up in the public eye. Before it was only an issue to pilots, them being the only ones to effectively see the gap between the lip-service done to safety and the real situation. One smoking hole can change the whole game. Mostly only the pilots will be blamed, as they are almost always handily gone with the plane, and the companies and regulators get away with their fig-leaf and the public forgets everything with the next discount on air travel. Sometimes some managers are sacrified with the jockeys, as some mismanaged shortcuts are too blatant and very rarely a company goes completely down due to the same.
Having companies with their network and maintenance departments participate in decision making after failures is certainly logical, considering today’s data link capabilities. At the same time we can observe too many conflicts between companies and pilots concerning T&C’s and, going with it, the threatening culture that developped the last 20 years. The power shift from unions, which were admittedly often too short sighted, to profit maniacal management is obvious and not really enhancing safety.
Both of the recent engine failures on quads (BA, EK) led to diversions, even though they continued for many hours. So effectively, comparing to twin failures, the only advantage was getting closer to destination, but like twins not reaching it. So the advantage was merely an economical one because it allowed the company to prepare better for arrangements.
My point I am trying to make is: It certainly looks good to be able to prepare for such diversions and to choose a more appropriate airport with quads. In most cases the risk assessment would certainly allow a continuation. Sometimes though, the slight economical advantage fades compared to the increase in safety margin vs. routine operation.
I uphold my suspicion that (taking into account the above) the “advice” (and subtle pressure) from the company to continue, paired with the less strong position (protection) of today’s skippers leads to more biased decisions, more risk taking.
An engine failure remains a serious malfunction!
There are two very separate issues at stake. One is the economical, the other the safety aspect. We all agree that we want safety to come before economics.
This thread deals with the legal possibility of 4-engined aircraft to continue almost unlimited with an engine failure. Although we should not compare with twins, because they are bound to land asap in the same situation, we can’t discard a comparison because ultimately the advantage of being able to continue represents an economical advantage, or no one in his right mind would continue with a failure of a vital component if not.
There is an inherent danger to blur the line between the two issues, safety and economics, if the possibility exists. The companies and their managers are only measured by profit, never by safety margins, unless there is an accident. Then suddenly however, the safety issue pops up in the public eye. Before it was only an issue to pilots, them being the only ones to effectively see the gap between the lip-service done to safety and the real situation. One smoking hole can change the whole game. Mostly only the pilots will be blamed, as they are almost always handily gone with the plane, and the companies and regulators get away with their fig-leaf and the public forgets everything with the next discount on air travel. Sometimes some managers are sacrified with the jockeys, as some mismanaged shortcuts are too blatant and very rarely a company goes completely down due to the same.
Having companies with their network and maintenance departments participate in decision making after failures is certainly logical, considering today’s data link capabilities. At the same time we can observe too many conflicts between companies and pilots concerning T&C’s and, going with it, the threatening culture that developped the last 20 years. The power shift from unions, which were admittedly often too short sighted, to profit maniacal management is obvious and not really enhancing safety.
Both of the recent engine failures on quads (BA, EK) led to diversions, even though they continued for many hours. So effectively, comparing to twin failures, the only advantage was getting closer to destination, but like twins not reaching it. So the advantage was merely an economical one because it allowed the company to prepare better for arrangements.
My point I am trying to make is: It certainly looks good to be able to prepare for such diversions and to choose a more appropriate airport with quads. In most cases the risk assessment would certainly allow a continuation. Sometimes though, the slight economical advantage fades compared to the increase in safety margin vs. routine operation.
I uphold my suspicion that (taking into account the above) the “advice” (and subtle pressure) from the company to continue, paired with the less strong position (protection) of today’s skippers leads to more biased decisions, more risk taking.
An engine failure remains a serious malfunction!
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Originally Posted by glofish
I uphold my suspicion that (taking into account the above) the “advice” (and subtle pressure) from the company to continue, paired with the less strong position (protection) of today’s skippers leads to more biased decisions, more risk taking.
This thread however is about a single engine failure on an EK380 - it's been brought to a totally different level here - and the subsequent continuation of flight for several hours. WHAT is the big deal? The RISK was assessed by the experienced PIC.
Originally Posted by glofish
An engine failure remains a serious malfunction!
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glofish:
But not as serious as burning the last few Kg of fuel.
Statistically, a "simple" engine failure, with no evident secondary damage, is not a contributor to the quad accident database. (I won't include the training accidents like the early DL DC-8 at MSY.
Again, you gotta pick your battles. The 5000-mile battle is becoming Quixotic - tilting at windmills.
An engine failure remains a serious malfunction!
Statistically, a "simple" engine failure, with no evident secondary damage, is not a contributor to the quad accident database. (I won't include the training accidents like the early DL DC-8 at MSY.
Again, you gotta pick your battles. The 5000-mile battle is becoming Quixotic - tilting at windmills.
Lets put it into context , are we advocating going back to 90 mins ETOPS on a twin. If its safe enough for 300 pax on ONE engine with 240 mins ETOPS whats the problem with 3 engines within reasonable distance of a suitable diversion if there was another problem ?
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Lets put it into context , are we advocating going back to 90 mins ETOPS on a twin. If its safe enough for 300 pax on ONE engine with 240 mins ETOPS whats the problem with 3 engines within reasonable distance of a suitable diversion if there was another problem ?
The thing which makes me chuckle is that there are now hundreds of posts about a precautionary shutdown; technically the engine didn't even fail. Many aircraft have run with zippo oil for hours but when you have 4 why take the risk!
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Hi White Knight, to the best of my knowledge the only A380 occurrence classification of 'accident' relates to VH-OQA.
SQ26 (9V-SKG) didn't 'push on' towards Frankfurt on 3.
SQ26 (9V-SKG) didn't 'push on' towards Frankfurt on 3.
As others have already said as long as safety was duly considered, there's no reason not to think of economy. One of the benefits of a four is to be able to do these trips.
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Why is this thread is still going on?
I am not a pilot but I am involved in the design of safety related systems. I take advantage of the strong safety culture and detailed analysis of incidents in order (I hope) to learn lessons that are generally applicable. Which is why I browse pprune. What I can't understand is why this thread is dragging on. Two basic things seem to be overlooked.
1. Safe is not absence of all risk. There is no system in which there is no risk whatsoever. Safety is normally defined as freedom from unacceptable risk. This may be subjective but it is grounded in the real world.
2. The best person to judge a situation is a trained person on the spot. Analysing decisions based on partial information afterwards is futile and criticism is inadvisable unless the facts are known and the decision concerned is clearly unreasonable from the information available at the time.
In this case the best placed person made a decision based on his analysis of the risks. I am sure this analysis included the nature of the engine problem and whether this problem made other engine failures likely. From an engineering perspective unless the nature of the failure was itself likely to cause other probems or indicative of a common failure I cannot see how this decision can be anything but reasonable. A culture in which decisions are needlessly second guessed and criticised undermines safety by inhibitting confidence to make necessary decisions.
1. Safe is not absence of all risk. There is no system in which there is no risk whatsoever. Safety is normally defined as freedom from unacceptable risk. This may be subjective but it is grounded in the real world.
2. The best person to judge a situation is a trained person on the spot. Analysing decisions based on partial information afterwards is futile and criticism is inadvisable unless the facts are known and the decision concerned is clearly unreasonable from the information available at the time.
In this case the best placed person made a decision based on his analysis of the risks. I am sure this analysis included the nature of the engine problem and whether this problem made other engine failures likely. From an engineering perspective unless the nature of the failure was itself likely to cause other probems or indicative of a common failure I cannot see how this decision can be anything but reasonable. A culture in which decisions are needlessly second guessed and criticised undermines safety by inhibitting confidence to make necessary decisions.
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The central question to inform this debate is this:
Q1: Does observing ONE engine failure change the statistical likelihood of observing ANOTHER FAILURE later in the same flight? Hint: Fuel issues, bad maintenance procedures, batch fatigue failures.
And then - more interesting -
Q2: Does the PIC of an Airbus 380 have the training and information to validly answer Q1?
Unfortunately, I would say that the A380 does not yet have enough flight hours for statistical induction alone to answer either Q1 or Q2. As I am not a pilot, I would guess in those conditions better inconveniently safe than sorry. But then my fearfulness, bad eyesight and low IQ provide a good reason why I am not found at the pointy end
Q1: Does observing ONE engine failure change the statistical likelihood of observing ANOTHER FAILURE later in the same flight? Hint: Fuel issues, bad maintenance procedures, batch fatigue failures.
And then - more interesting -
Q2: Does the PIC of an Airbus 380 have the training and information to validly answer Q1?
Unfortunately, I would say that the A380 does not yet have enough flight hours for statistical induction alone to answer either Q1 or Q2. As I am not a pilot, I would guess in those conditions better inconveniently safe than sorry. But then my fearfulness, bad eyesight and low IQ provide a good reason why I am not found at the pointy end
PiggyBack
You are right. I flew 4 engine aircraft for over 30 years and I am amazed at how many people continue this pointless discussion. It really is time to stop.
You are right. I flew 4 engine aircraft for over 30 years and I am amazed at how many people continue this pointless discussion. It really is time to stop.
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Edmundroland, working in the interpretation of numerical data myself, I'm of the same opinion.
Piggyback, the starting point in deriving probabilities is to determine ways in which we can arrive at a measure of likelihood. We can look at the relative frequency with which the event in question occurred in the past. The subject of discussion is the recently developed A380 and a single event where it is logical that combinations of events were considered by automation and on the ground back seat drivers to press on towards destination.
For most of those 30 years you mention Bergerie1, I'd imagine you enjoyed the independence to made your own decisions.
Piggyback, the starting point in deriving probabilities is to determine ways in which we can arrive at a measure of likelihood. We can look at the relative frequency with which the event in question occurred in the past. The subject of discussion is the recently developed A380 and a single event where it is logical that combinations of events were considered by automation and on the ground back seat drivers to press on towards destination.
For most of those 30 years you mention Bergerie1, I'd imagine you enjoyed the independence to made your own decisions.
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Originally Posted by sober lark
For most of those 30 years you mention Bergerie1, I'd imagine you enjoyed the independence to made your own decisions.
ETOPS was perused by both Boeing and Scarebus so they could sell big twins to airlines to operate the Atlantic and Pacific more economically, with the comparable safety to the quads they replaced.
Now, that Twins flying ULR is the norm, it would seem that some want to limit the Quad operation to that of the twin.
A quad continuing on three suffers another engine failure. It now drifts down and diverts to a planned enroute ALTN, exactly the same as any Twin would do after a single engine failure.
A twin on a 207min ETOPS flight over the pole suffers an engine failure. It now drifts down and all on board wish they were flying in a quad.
Now, that Twins flying ULR is the norm, it would seem that some want to limit the Quad operation to that of the twin.
A quad continuing on three suffers another engine failure. It now drifts down and diverts to a planned enroute ALTN, exactly the same as any Twin would do after a single engine failure.
A twin on a 207min ETOPS flight over the pole suffers an engine failure. It now drifts down and all on board wish they were flying in a quad.