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Polish Government Tu154M crash

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Polish Government Tu154M crash

Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:34
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I think at this stage to make a link with aircraft type and age with the facts as they are currently known makes no sense.
Of course. It wasn't a mechanical failure, but nonetheless, in last few years polish VIP aircrafts broke few times (I can remember from the top of my head that in one of them engine ccaught fire -- not flameout), so they were not as safe as new planes (and of course I'm aware, that new planes can break too).
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:38
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Stuknij sie po głowie Tonden..

========================

Showing video of the wreckage... looks pretty bad. Cleared patch of forest where it happened, fires were still being extinguished, wreckage scattered over the forest.

Huge blow for Poland, almost of unbelievable proportions. Plane was full of government VIPs, and all on the anniversary and on the way to Katyń.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:40
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Polish tv news are airing now terrible first videos from the site of the crash.
Total burning, smoldering, shattered wreckage.
Some fragments of tail and engines parts are recognizable.
No one could survive such crash .
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:41
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I realise for any Polish person posting here there is an emotional connection, but please, don't try and convince anyone that a Tu154 era aircraft (no matter how well maintained and operated) will achieve anywhere near the level of safety afforded by (for example) a borrowed LOT B737.

At least be realistic on that score. Better perhaps to even have spent a few million on a Citation / Falcon , too late now.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:45
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The video shows clearly intact "black box".

Very important, the area is cordoned by Russian police and secret service.
All journalists materials from the airfield were confiscated.

It is a miracle that this video was transferred to Poland and broadcasted worldwide.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:46
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I would suggest it's not exactly the time to start lecturing Polish people about Western vs Eastern built aircraft safety standards
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:47
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Could anyone find METAR of XUBS (I believe)?

correction UUBS
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:48
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We have also lost Chiefs of: land forces, air forces, special forces and marine forces, with some accompanying generals.

Edit: there were 132 people on board.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:49
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Sad Sad news on so many deaths.

Concerned about confiscation of media material.

Russians will have to realise that it will have to be an open investigation with Western experts doing the lead as anything other than that will not be accepted by Poland.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:50
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According to the eyewitness, the plane was banking to the left and struck the ground with the left wing first.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:50
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I realise for any Polish person posting here there is an emotional connection, but please, don't try and convince anyone that a Tu154 era aircraft (no matter how well maintained and operated) will achieve anywhere near the level of safety afforded by (for example) a borrowed LOT B737.
The B-737 design is a few years older than the Tu-154 one.

If the very dense fog/low cloud at Smolensk was the main cause of the crash, the question is, would another plane with newest avionics made the difference?

Arrakis
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:51
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There were negotiations to lease 2 Embraer 175 from LOT.

The negotiation have been broken few month ago, the reason
was not sufficient range.

At the moment, the reporter, Polish TV technician is confirming live
he was fighting with the police to rescue the tape.
He was in the hotel near the approach path.
He heard the crash, grabbed the camera and was able to take the shots.
He was aware he has to look for black box.

He was later arrested by OMON, but release on protest by Polish officials.

Running now live on Polish TV3 and 3.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 08:58
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there is a photo on jacdec.de
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 09:00
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still persevering with such an unsafe type for so long
There is nothing inherently unsafe with the TU5. It had it's fair share of accidents, just like the 737, simply on account of being the most numerous type built in the old USSR. However looking at the accidents, most of them can be traced to gross violation of procedures, terrorism, etc. Very few happened due to any mechanical or systems failure (in that comparison, the 73 probably fares worse).

It is an old and by present standards uneconomical design, but if maintained properly (as I'm sure this aircraft was) it can be flown as safely as anything else.

Highly speculative, but this is what a rumour network is for: this may be the ultimate sad case of politicans meddling with airline/aircraft operations. I can very easily envision the scenario where there was enormous pressure on the crew (real or percieved) to complete the flight with marginal weather conditions to an airport with no precision approach. The high ranking person on board was not a particularly easy character to deal with, we will never find out how he may have reacted to the suggestion of delaying or cancelling the flight...

To this add a dash of recent operating environment in WAW - with only Cat II available, standard operating practice of many airlines (including the major local one) in marginal weather (which is basically all winter) was to shoot an approach even if reported minima were below legal, and the co-pilot look out of the window to the right. Once ground was in sight and one particular characteristic buliding was identified just right of the flight path, the call-out 'runway in sight' was made, usually just a second or two before reaching minimums. The runway did appear straight ahead about 5-10 seconds later... I'm reasonably sure the relevant authorities were aware of this practice, and turned a blind eye. Such an attitude will invariably lead to trouble eventually.

Will be interesting to see how these aspects of this sad event will be handled and released.

Last edited by andrasz; 10th Apr 2010 at 12:11.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 09:00
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I remind You all that it is military airfield. No wonder that russian militia overreacted. Still huge informational chaos, concerning lost souls.
They say that russian ATC propossed other landing places.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 09:06
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Not much room for speculation as of now, as nobody knows any real facts.

Reduced visibility alone will not bring down an airplane.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 09:08
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Polish radio reporting that the crash was after three go arounds
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 09:08
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They say about 4 misapproaches !!! And 3 survivors (not officialy).
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 09:14
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Andrasz:

....last report says it was the 4th approach attempt....

The were number of people waiting in the Katyń Forest
for the President to start the celebrations.

Now official press conference of the Polish Foreign Ministry running.
Passenger list is being verified.
Original list was 89, one person confirmed not appearing on time.
Now 88 dead expected. Not confirmed, not sure if some more persons
missed the departure 7 a.m. LT.

Some unconfirmed rumours three survivors in hospital.
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Old 10th Apr 2010, 09:15
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Very sad event,

Image of the aircraft here ....

Photo Republic of Poland Tupolev TU-154M 102
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