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Aer Lingus to Leave Dublin Forever.

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Aer Lingus to Leave Dublin Forever.

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Old 26th Nov 2009, 20:19
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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Alex, Planes dont make money sitting round pier A in Dublin, If you think Aerlingus is a small player in Dublin thats because they are in the air trying to make money.
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Old 26th Nov 2009, 20:39
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liffy2A:

Fair point, but you would imagine they would represent the overall traffic at the airport. You can hardly say that Ryanair don't utilise their fleet, with a 20-30 minute turnaround and aircraft flying 15+ hours per day, their aircraft dont spend too long on the ground at any airport.

As for my opinion on Aer Lingus, it is different to my observations - I didn't mean any offence to you by my post - and naturally as one of my national carriers I support them wholeheartedly, and was actually going to book a Christmas holiday with them from Gatwick to Knock because they were cheaper than Ryanair in this case.

Sir George Cayley:

I know, was wary about posting because there seems to be a lot of immature b*tching in this forum, so I posted on something I feel strongly about and may have something relevant to contribute.

So far I'm doing a masters in Aeronautics and Astronautics at University of Southampton and would like to become an airline pilot in my 30s after some work in the Police as a PC.
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Old 26th Nov 2009, 20:46
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Somebody must know the place where Alex can go and see a lot of parked up Ryanair airplanes!
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Old 26th Nov 2009, 20:55
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Can I remind all the spotters, armchair chief executives and Ryanair sh1tstirrers that this website is a professional pilots site and while I dont know nor care who this Leo Camel is, his agenda speaks for itself.I am an Aer Lingus pilot who bought shares to keep Ryanair from buying Aer Lingus and I consider my money well spent as it has succeeded so far.Things are happening which will be revealed shortly to those concerned.
Can the Mods spare us from more uninformed bull and send this thread where it belongs, down the jacks.
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Old 26th Nov 2009, 22:13
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Post Waffles anyone?

Good evening, Waffler. Perhaps you'd care to enlighten us on just how much you spent on your stake in Aer Lingus, and more to the point, how large the personal guarantee you signed since the value of your leveraged investment has declined from your purchase price of nearly €3 to today's closing price of 52 cents?

Moreover, perhaps you'd care to explain why you bothered in the first place since Ryanair's objective is to prevent, and indeed reverse, the decline of Aer Lingus, to invest massively in the company and have it not only survive, but thrive, with employment, profitability (imagine that) and all the other fruit to fall from the tree of success? Why would you object to such a vision of the future?

I would genuinely like to know, and if you are who you say you are you're in an ideal position to comment, why on earth would you and your Aer Lingus colleagues object to Ryanair rescuing Aer Lingus when your airline is in a moribund financial state, moments from total ruin, losing €2 million daily and where by any reasonable measure, Michael O'Leary and Ryanair is about success, growth and a positive future. Why on earth would you elect, by your foolish and failed investment, not to be a part of that?

I put it to you that IALPA and it's incompetent leadership have so poisoned the well of Irish aviation, so befouled the cause of truth, that you have permitted dogma to eclipse reason.
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Old 26th Nov 2009, 23:04
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As I recall, the long haul fleet consists of 8 330s and there are about 35 or so 320/321s
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 07:50
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@ waffler

To use the same kind of patronising tone of writing:

Can we remind you that in spite of the name, this is an open forum - there are closed forums on the site as well - so you will just have to put up with your opinions being viewed and - possibly - critiqued by the hoi-polloi ( Oh Mother ! ).

Since you say you are close to the heart of that mighty transport organisation that is Aer Lingus, maybe you have something enlightening to tell us rather than the teasing, troll-like comment " Things are happening which will be revealed shortly to those concerned. "
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 10:11
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Invested roughly 50k so far. Over 3 years since mick tried to take us over. I believe dub captains now getting paid 56k basic salary in RYR. So with that in mind, 50k well invested.

How much is Micks 300-400 million he invested worth at 52 cents per share?
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 10:25
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Agenda, Agenda, Agenda.......
School yard bullying at its best. Ryanair V Aer Lingus. AL Pilots ( Ialpa ) V MOL.
Very tiring.
Some facts, not agenda driven bullying.

ALT is fat, but it can lose weight ( alot of it ). Watch the media in the next 5 days, some of that weight will be shed.
Ryanair is not fat ( Its loan book is! )

AL is cash positive FACT. Ryanair has net debt FACT.

ALT can improve, Ryanair must expand ( Trees dont grow to the sky, look at the Irish property bubble and all the developers gone bust, look at Lehman Brothers..... etc etc )
Expansion in a contracting market is a risky strategy, especially if you're heavily in debt. If things further decline Ryanair may have to further collateralise whats left of its debtless or low debt assets. The interest rates on the borrowings will increase, thereby reducing the ability of the assets to perform. Fares will have to increase, load factor will decrease..... The perfect storm. Yes there is 2.4ish Billion cash on the balance sheet, but MOL has already ( worryingly ) suggested this be allocated to shareholders as a dividend, Why? He had to in order to quell the exodus of shareholders who now realise expansion is over.

Stelios of Easyjet ( perhaps more agenda here ) has stated in public he feels Ryanair has over extended themselves. Take it or leave, may be agenda.

To defend Ialpa's purchase of shares, they have on numerous occasions stated that the purchase was not to make money but to block a hostile takeover by Ryanair ( which has succeeded twice ). I'd imagine ( if the figures mentioned above are correct ) 2 years ALT salary has more than compensated Ialpa members compared to 2 years of a Ryanair salary. Ironically, Ryanair, I'm told is one of the reasons the Pilots pension fund is in better shape than most other pension funds, when it bought ALT shares around the time of the first takeover bid it was compelled to sell a % of its exposure to the ISEQ, they sold the Irish bank shares before their collapse! Ialpa should have sent MOL a bunch of flowers!

Why does Ryanair want, what they continue to call a basket case zombie Airline? My opinon, because its not a basket case, if it were, Ryanair would have commercially destroyed them. ALT has existed in one of Ryanairs biggest bases now for as long as Ryanair has existed. You dont run laps with an Olympian and not get fit yourself.

Ryanair IS a champion business, FACT. They will survive this downturn. MOL may not, the shareholders are getting uncomfortable. Without continuing expansion you need a product with some sort of quality. MOL is unable to deliver that product the Herb did at Southwest.

Expansion in a contracting market has killed many a business.
When the growth is over, the product must be strong.
Following every boom is a bust.
Economics is simple and obvious, believing it, extremely difficult.
Trees don't grow to the sky.

Rds
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 10:39
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Aer Lingus are trying to operate in a very challenging environment (deeper felt in Ireland) and it hasn't been able to spread risk like others.

Aer Lingus has positive brand recognition so if the opportunities exist elsewhere (and they have key competitive positions in LHR) then it is the shareholders who call the shots. Go for it Aer Lingus! Antitrust concerns will protect you.

What would happen the island of Ireland if there was only one operator. Don't people ask why is Aer Lingus important to Ireland?
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 11:12
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Leo,

In response to your reply to Waffler, from my point of view its plainly clear why he objects to hostile take over by Ryanair.

I am also a pilot, originally from the Emerald Isle and desperate to return. I spent my childhood gazing at green shiney jets, the sense of pride in the national carrier instilled from birth.

Ryanair delivers a good product to the end user, cheap (if you play by the rules), no frills and punctual. But at what cost?? The crews work tirelessly, but for minimum reward. You tout high salaries, and good working conditions - they might look good on paper but when you become personally responsible for uniform, insurance, pension, car parking, sim checks etc etc.... it doesnt look so good.

Pilots in other carriers may have a similar package, albeit company funded benifits, but the respect element is worth so much more. Knowing that your not simply a 'contractor' working one day to the next. Having a unified voice in order to simplify discussions between management and the crews... You dont have to listen too hard to hear the bitching and moaning from FR crews about how they are treated.

Waffler, and many others have poured blood, sweat and tears into AL to make it the success it has been. They can be proud, and rightly so of what it has been in the past and what it will be again. Just not at any cost
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 11:42
  #72 (permalink)  
 
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Once again the camel turns a blind eye to the FR salary questions...
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 11:59
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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"no slot" great post
lovejoy good post
fyi i bought stock in EI last week
thanks for insight
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 13:23
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No Slot/lm07

On 10 November, Aer Lingus new CEO was quoted as saying that Aer Lingus' chances of survival were only 50-50. A link to one article quoting this is below. I am sure there are others.

Aer Lingus cuts long-haul flights to focus on battle with Ryanair - Times Online

Aer Lingus has shed some €400 million in cash so far this year. It shows no signs of returning to profitability, with consensus estimates being that the airline will lose over €80m this year, and a further €50m next. Contrast that with Ryanair's position. It is making operating profits, though like the Aer Lingus pilots, has taken a bath on its Aer Lingus shareholding. Ryanair does have potential issues with expansion, but will overcome those simply by cancelling its next 737 orders if necessary. It has nothing like the problems of Aer Lingus. It is more along the lines of "can we continue to expand or have we become an ex-growth company?". Aer Lingus, as the CEO himself admits, may simply not survive.

It is not a robust airline. It never has been. Some of you display a misty-eyed romanticism for this airline that, frankly, astounds me. It is not that long ago that it used to charge people a minimum of £200 to fly bewteen London and Dublin, and that in the days before passenger tax etc. Pre-Ryanair, the average Irish resident's holiday choices were those where charter airlines flew in summer. It was an airline run for the benefit of its workforce and friends in government. Passenger interests were simply ignored.

The idea that Aer Lingus has brand value is simply laughable. Its market share in Ireland plunged as soon as Ryanair started offering cheap fares. It is now easily the #2 airline in Ireland, in a two-airline market! In any case, its home market is roughly the same size as north London but not as rich anymore.

And before you dismiss me as a Ryanair stooge, let me point out I avoid using Ryanair because its charging policies verge on the criminally corrupt. Even where this involves me having to fly to a less convenient airport and hiring a car, I choose Aer Lingus over Ryanair. However, Aer Lingus is a deeply flawed business as a result of weak past management, government interference (eg Bertie sticking one of his mates who lent him money to fund his divorce onto the Board), and the economic condition Ireland is now in. It should be allowed to fail, and stronger airlines (but not Ryanair) allowed to cherry pick the assets they want and impose more realistic working conditions on the still-bloated, still-cossetted workforce. The DAA should be encouraged to give any new entrants or those aggreeing to exand services into Ireland a better deal on fees etc than Ryanair currently has, simply to level the playing field a bit.
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 13:40
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What would happen the island of Ireland if there was only one operator. Don't people ask why is Aer Lingus important to Ireland?
Probably nothing.
  • More people will do TATL via LHR/AMS/FRA
  • BA will have to start flying to DUB
  • FR will continue to nickle and dime their passengers while still only "charging" next to nothing on the base ticket fares.
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 14:29
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Don't suppose you'd shoot this messenger too, would you?
Ryanair pilots earning on average €150k per year?

They must have accidentally given me the junior FO contract then? I'd better give them a call right away to clear this up. Cha-ching!
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 15:14
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JayPee28bpr,
[QUOTE]Aer Lingus has shed some €400 million in cash so far this year/QUOTE]

I'm almost sure we had this conversation in an other forum recently. I will dismiss this sensationalist nonsense that I hear far too often in many lazy media articles about ALT's uncontrollable cash burn.

ALT Cash June 2008 803million euro
ALT Cash June 2009 440million euro = 363million euro burn
However,
2 Aircraft bought for 184million euro CASH ( 75% returned to balance sheet after first half 2009 results announced in a leasing deal ), and
97million euro once off redundancy deal ( resulting in staff cost savings ).

So, 363million euro burn ( minus 184million euro and 97million euro ) = 82million euro ( mostly bad fuel hedging ) which is a more transparent figure when trying to decide if investing in ALT is worthwhile.

82million euro is not 400million euro. It still is a worrying cash burn and needs to be addressed, however, considering the industry is due to lose 11 Billion euro in 2009 ( IATA ) in possibly the worst ever downturn to hit the aviation industry, I believe ALT to be well situated, with a conservative balance sheet, and strong cash reserves. Project Greenfield is about to deliver
another 100million in savings on its cost base.

No wonder MOL and Ryanair want to buy ALT. Would I invest, I already have....

rgds
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 15:21
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What 2 aircaft did AL buy for 184 million euro?

Isn't a new 320 about $75m?

A 97m euro redundancy package....how many people?
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 15:29
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Post No slot, no hope, no ready message.

No slot, I enjoyed your post and thank you for it, sincerely. You demonstrate perfectly the central point I'm trying to make. I believe emotion has got in the way of common sense at IALPA, but no matter in which of many ways you try to drown the truth, it keeps bobbing to the surface to spite you. They say nature abhors a vacuum, and I can barely hear you above that dreadful sucking noise emerging from the IALPA of your thinking. First of all, a few factoids to set the record right.
Agenda, Agenda, Agenda.......School yard bullying at its best.
I have no agenda and have never thought of myself as much of a bully. On sober reflection I think my tone quite moderate, unlike yours, but then I'm just a private individual with a vision for Aer Lingus' future. You, on the other hand, seem desperate to preside over its destruction and do so by clinging, like so many demented limpets, to several and various outrageous untruths.
ALT is fat, but it can lose weight ( alot of it ).
All evidence to the contrary, and in any case, not quick enough I fear! Do you really mean to suggest that your bloated A330 drivers, who currently cross the pond with 17 paying customers and 70 staff (I **** you not) on a good day, will forgo their €400,000 salaries for a while? Perhaps they may, and we shall see in Monday’s big announcement.

So much for price, but at what cost? Let me guess. Scope clause to scupper the Astraeus deal and an insistence that any LGW expansion is made with IALPA members on a LIFO basis, thus furthering IALPA's stranglehold around the neck of a crippled and spluttering Aer Lingus? Sound familiar?

Beware the woman in black for she is fat. Beware the airline in green for she is fat with devious, dumb-as-dog**** unions. You'd do well to remember, no slot, that it is in the very nature of certain viruses to destroy it's host. You, or rather, IALPA is the virus. We are the cure.

AL is cash positive FACT. Ryanair has net debt FACT.
On the surface of it, no slot tells the truth. But a picture paints a thousand words. Refer here in general, but pages 7, 8 and 9 in particular.
Before taking a €407 million bath in Aer Lingus scrip and a €346 million share buy-back cost (hardly the act of an airline concerned about its financial future) your debt argument evaporates into the nonsense it is. Describing AERL as cash positive, though, caused me tremendous amusement. Tell me, no slot, did you type that with a straight face? It's a bit like Eric Cartman describing himself as big boned. Comforting self-delusion, but hardly addresses the core nature of the problem.

Aer Lingus is financially screwed, no slot, a fact well known by both of us. Whilst you may be cash positive this week, losing two million €uro a day, or if you prefer, €84,000 every hour, hardly bodes well for a happy tomorrow, now does it?
To defend Ialpa's purchase of shares, they have on numerous occasions stated that the purchase was not to make money
Success beyond your wildest dreams, then! You must be so proud. How big is YOUR personal guarantee, no slot? Waffler's gone quiet.
but to block a hostile takeover by Ryanair ( which has succeeded twice )
Ah, no. Your tiny gathering of underperforming stock is akin to the sound a dwarf makes when farting into a Typhoon. Well intended strenuous effort, funny from a distance, but hardly memorable. It wasn't Tailwind that blocked the acquisition, no slot, it was Steely Neelie Kroes who did that. Well, she and Bubbles Ahern, but Bubbles is gone and Neelie ain't so steely any more.

Let's see what the CFI has to say on the subject next April. If you're still around then, that is. As an Irish person and regular customer of your delightful airline, I sincerely hope so.

Last edited by Leo Hairy-Camel; 27th Nov 2009 at 15:53.
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Old 27th Nov 2009, 15:35
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You won't find the new competition commissioner any more to your liking, Leo.
The jig is soon to be up!
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