On 10 November, Aer Lingus new CEO was quoted as saying that Aer Lingus' chances of survival were only 50-50. A link to one article quoting this is below. I am sure there are others.
Aer Lingus cuts long-haul flights to focus on battle with Ryanair - Times Online
Aer Lingus has shed some €400 million in cash so far this year. It shows no signs of returning to profitability, with consensus estimates being that the airline will lose over €80m this year, and a further €50m next. Contrast that with Ryanair's position. It is making operating profits, though like the Aer Lingus pilots, has taken a bath on its Aer Lingus shareholding. Ryanair does have potential issues with expansion, but will overcome those simply by cancelling its next 737 orders if necessary. It has nothing like the problems of Aer Lingus. It is more along the lines of "can we continue to expand or have we become an ex-growth company?". Aer Lingus, as the CEO himself admits, may simply not survive.
It is not a robust airline. It never has been. Some of you display a misty-eyed romanticism for this airline that, frankly, astounds me. It is not that long ago that it used to charge people a minimum of £200 to fly bewteen London and Dublin, and that in the days before passenger tax etc. Pre-Ryanair, the average Irish resident's holiday choices were those where charter airlines flew in summer. It was an airline run for the benefit of its workforce and friends in government. Passenger interests were simply ignored.
The idea that Aer Lingus has brand value is simply laughable. Its market share in Ireland plunged as soon as Ryanair started offering cheap fares. It is now easily the #2 airline in Ireland, in a two-airline market! In any case, its home market is roughly the same size as north London but not as rich anymore.
And before you dismiss me as a Ryanair stooge, let me point out I avoid using Ryanair because its charging policies verge on the criminally corrupt. Even where this involves me having to fly to a less convenient airport and hiring a car, I choose Aer Lingus over Ryanair. However, Aer Lingus is a deeply flawed business as a result of weak past management, government interference (eg Bertie sticking one of his mates who lent him money to fund his divorce onto the Board), and the economic condition Ireland is now in. It should be allowed to fail, and stronger airlines (but not Ryanair) allowed to cherry pick the assets they want and impose more realistic working conditions on the still-bloated, still-cossetted workforce. The DAA should be encouraged to give any new entrants or those aggreeing to exand services into Ireland a better deal on fees etc than Ryanair currently has, simply to level the playing field a bit.