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Turkish MD-83 Crash

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Turkish MD-83 Crash

Old 10th Dec 2007, 18:06
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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I personally have learned to value brainstorming in many other professions like engineering and even more in management, why not in aviation?

bjornhall
...... Fair enough, but do it somewhere else! airliners.net, airdisaster.com, the misc forums here (spectator's corner); places where such contributions are both welcome and solicited. But not in the flight deck forums at pprune!
Bjornhall, that's like telling a guy to get lost. It's not a solution, message boards are magnets for discussion. The tighter the restrictions on them the less the discussion and suddenly all is quiet except for the moaning over deleted posts, malfeasance and administrator coverups. Of course the moderators could move the posts, but then we would all just follow them there and leave this room empty.

I'm afraid that all you can do is to bemoan the credibility of some of the arguments and yes brainstorming is used in accident investigation by trained professionals, only it's followed up by gathering facts to prove or disprove the hypothesis.
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 03:37
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Waiting myself for the final report.
I just hope they are the true facts about what happened and what led up to this.
Honesty is not a common word in this part of the world.
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 07:06
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Earl,
Waiting myself for the final report.I just hope they are the true facts [...] Honesty is not a common word in this part of the world.
Why are you waiting for the final report, if you know for a fact that it's not going to be honest?

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Old 11th Dec 2007, 07:25
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Lets all hope it is.
Everyone has a general idea about what happened here.
The report should tell us what factors led up to these bad decisions that were made if indeed this was the case.
Lived and worked in this part of the world for years, anything goes there.
Will save the comments for after the report is released.

Last edited by Earl; 11th Dec 2007 at 07:37.
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 08:14
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Weird!

I find something very strange in the notion that it's useful to have non-professionals "guessing" about the cause of this or that crash or incident. The pros cannot or will not guess and we need the non-pros to do that? Well, WHY, for heaven's sake?

I always found it amusing at best but often simply annoying to be told, for instance, that "That was a bad landing," when it might have been a normal firm touch-down, flown exactly according to the book. You know, the sort of thing you do to get the WOW switches activated so that you have all that boring stuff such as ground spoilers and brakes working. Okay, you didn't "grease it on," the sort of thing some dodo down the back with a little bit of knowledge is looking for, but so what?

Nowadays, what with Microsoft Flight Simulator and all the on-line information available to the averagely-bright non-professional, there has been a great proliferation of arm-chair aviators, poised to second-guess every decision and event. To encourage this is insane, in my opinion. Far better to tell them to wind their necks in and concentrate on getting that little bag of peanuts open. "There's a good boy!"

Generally if I want to "guess" about the cause of something then I can do that myself, keeping that to myself! Sometimes, yes, there might be something urgent to discuss, some "gotcha" we have overlooked, but all this Google Earth stuff with bearings and distances and wild guesses about what a crew may have been thinking... what is the point?
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 09:09
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Chuks,
Far better to tell them to wind their necks in and concentrate on getting that little bag of peanuts open.
I sometimes wonder how many paying passengers the airline-industry has lost for the overt arrogance pilots expose towards the so called "self loading freight" in a public forum like PPrune.

During my past 10 years as a TV producer, I saw a revolution bring new digital cameras and editing decks to the markets, where they became available to the general public. A knowledge and gnosis once reserved for "us" was now available to everybody. Even "average-bright" pilots started making movies and expressing opinions about how to make them. Is that an offence to me? No.

Just finished the '08 travel budget for my department. We cut back on the domestic flights this year considerably, since people appeared to favour hi-speed train travel and going by their own cars instead. As a long-necked peanut-eater, I didn't put my irrational fascination for aviation in their way.
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 09:18
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chuks and others,
Originally Posted by chuks
I find something very strange in the notion that it's useful to have non-professionals "guessing" about the cause of this or that crash or incident. The pros cannot or will not guess and we need the non-pros to do that?
1. There are professional accident investigators participating in this thread.

2. Nobody has guessed yet about a cause of the crash, as far as I remember. (There has been some discussion about CFIT versus stall, but those are phenomena, not root causes.)

3. There have been some very perceptive contributions by people trying to locate the impact site, notably Mauersegler and more recently pls8xx. I understand neither of them are professional analysts but why should that matter? (Edit: Actually wrong, as Mauaersegler has just noted that he knows aerial photography analysis.) Are only certain people allowed to use Google Earth and say what they see, according to you?

4. I am most interested in reading perceptive contributions, and it is very, very secondary to me what the CVs look like of the people who make them. I am surprised that more people don't have a similar attitude on this forum.

5. This thread is entitled "Turkish MD-83 Crash".
Presumably people looking at it are interested in reading about, shall we imagine, a Turkish MD-83 crash. It is a little odd to find such readers complaining about people discussing, say, a Turkish MD-83 crash.

PBL

Last edited by PBL; 11th Dec 2007 at 10:00.
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 09:23
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Bye, bye

Professionals:

well, I get the message, you should not talk in an area you don't are a professional. Good, I have done aerial photograph analysis in my studies, could I speak about it?
Oh, by the way, please pilots stop speaking about the (non-existence) of global warming, since you don't have a professional title in this area, or I'm wrong?

For me, having a pilot in the family, was a very decepting experience here.

Bye, bye
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 09:34
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According to first results the reason is loss of orientation.

According to first results the crash reason is declared as loss of orientation.
Although the devices have warned about low attitude, the pilot miscalculated his position and continued on the wrong course and attitude.
As he realized his mistake he tries to pull up, therefore first the tail
then the body touched the ground.
First officer should warn the pilot but he was also confident...

Exact results will be availabe in two months.

Sorry for translation errors if there are any.
You may check the original at :
http://www.milliyet.com.tr/2007/12/11/son/sontur21.asp
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 10:39
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can i just say:

air crashes are shocking and full of sorrow. it is completely right and just for people to debate and ask why, and to analyse and put forth observations... everyone has a common interest in this. we are all human, we are all capable of putting forth educated guesses - the fact that people are on pprune means they have some common interest in air travel and the safety of it.
very often if debates are left to ''only the professionals'' it can sometimes result in more simple observations being ignored or forgotten.
lets all allow each other to continue to honor the people who died or were affected by this tradegy by giving our thoughts and analysis professional or otherwise into the causes of this tradegy (superfluous to the air accident investigation team)
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 12:24
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And now the vultures descend......
US law firm to assist families in airplane crash suits
Lawyers from the Ribbeck law offices, a famous US law firm that has handled the largest number of international aviation cases in the world, has come to Isparta to provide attorneys to relatives of people who died in a tragic airplane crash.
An Atlasjet plane recently crashed in the mountains of southwestern Turkey, killing all 57 people on board. Ribbeck's lawyers said they plan to sue the McDonnell Douglas and Boeing companies.
Monica Kelly, one of the lawyers from Ribbeck Law Offices, told the Anatolia news agency that they had launched an investigation into the airplane crash in Isparta as a preliminary step to bringing an action for damages.
Kelly said their aim was to find the cause of the crash and provide the right to compensation for the relatives of people who perished in the crash. She said she and her assistant would meet with the relatives and provide legal advice for suing for physical and emotional damage incurred during and after the accident, explaining, "After we complete all these processes, we will bring an action for damages against companies and persons involved, in particular the McDonnell Douglas and Boeing companies, in Chicago." She also added that an expert from the US would come to carry out a technical investigation of the wreck.
11.12.2007
Business
Today's Zaman
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 12:38
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EARL
Honesty is not a common word in this part of the world.
If by that you mean S Carolina then I have to agree with you.

Like you I eagerly await the final, hopefully 'unbiased', final report and will leave the speculative analysis to others. Like you I have lived and worked in both Turkey and the USA and would say that both places have an equal proportion of liars and bigotted a$$holes.

Regards,
rts
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 15:38
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the value of speculation

There is a feeling of unease that comes from the wild and not so wild speculation after an accident. Maybe the guesses act to trivialize the large loss of life and disrespect the grief of family and friends. One could make a good case for waiting for the official report, and many have.

If the point of speculation is to find the one true cause, then it is a useless endeavor. But if speculation should uncover an incorrect cause, is that not also beneficial?

The official report serves to guide us to prevent a re-occurrence. But what about an incorrect cause that could have happened. Must we wait until it does happen before we act to prevent another? One thing I have learned in life is, that if something can happen, sooner or later it will happen. And speculation is more likely to be fruitful before the true cause be known. There is nothing like the official report to suppress the imagination.

Then there is the financial aspects to be considered. Let's just say that where there are large sums of money at stake, there can be pressure to slant the the truth a bit. This tends to be offset by an independent inspection by a large number of interested parties who have studied the facts. Isn't that what's happening here?
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 18:26
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Quote:rodthesod
If by that you mean S Carolina then I have to agree with you.
Like you I eagerly await the final, hopefully 'unbiased', final report and will leave the speculative analysis to others. Like you I have lived and worked in both Turkey and the USA and would say that both places have an equal proportion of liars and bigotted a$$holes.
Regards,
rts
Earl:
Doubt you will find this in South Carolina.
Door must have hurt on your departure from there as your post states.
Take it to JB or the pub dude, dont post it here.
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 18:30
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black box

Turkish media reports that the 'black box' (CVR, DFDR) has been - quote -'faulty'

Could it been damaged by the impact or was it not working at all?
The caa director didn't confirm this rumour but admitted that they do have problems with it.

If this thing really didn't work - I'm affraid we'll never find out what happend.
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 20:30
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black box
If this thing really didn't work - I'm affraid we'll never find out what happend
Oh, and just what critical question did you expect to get answered only from the black box
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Old 11th Dec 2007, 20:45
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Oh, and just what critical question did you expect to get answered only from the black box ?
......................

Media talks about 'pilot disorientation'. I thought that a good readout of the CVR/FDR could sched more light into this.

I'm not an investigator but sure enough believe that the recorders could prove any major sys malfunctions. Correct me if I'm wrong.

It still bugs me that they reported 'runway insight & established inbound' (might have been 'airport insight') and than end up where they eventually did.

But than again, radio transcripts have 'only' been published in a Turkish newspaper.
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Old 12th Dec 2007, 01:00
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Report: 30 Degree Error






30 derecelik sapma Türbetepe’ye çakti
www.hurriyet.com.tr 12 Aralik 2007

Türbetepe’ye çakilan uçakla ilgili ilk incelemeler, kazaya 30 derecelik bir sapmanin yol açtigini ortaya çikardi. Buna göre alçalmada fazladan 30 derecelik hatayla dönen uçak, Burdur Gölü yerine daglara yöneldi. Inis irtifasinda gelen ’Çarpma sinyali’ üzerine pilotlar motorlara tam güç verse de, uçak ve yolculari kurtulamadi.


Tolga Özbek yaziyor

ISPARTA’da düsen, World Focus Havayollari’nin AtlasJet’e kiraladigi uçagin kara kutu kayitlarinda yapilan ilk inceleme, uçagin 30 derecelik bir hatayla yanlis yöne döndügü ve Burdur Gölü yerine Türbetepe’ye yöneldigini ortaya çikardi. Çarpma sinyali üzerine son anda levyeye asilan Kaptan Pilot Serhat Özdemir ve Ikinci Pilot, emekli Tuggeneral Tahir Aksoy’un kiçtaki motorlara güç vermesiyle alçalan kuyruk dikmesinin yere çarptigi anlasildi. Bu arada, uçagin kara kutu olarak bilinen ve iki ayri kayit sisteminden olusan CVR (Cockpit Voice Recorder-Kokpit Ses Kayit Cihazi) ile tüm uçus verilerini dijital olarak kaydeden FDR (Flight Data Recorder-Uçus Veri Kayit Cihazi), kaza kirim heyetince Almanya’ya götürüldü. Federal Uçak Kaza Arastirma Bürosu’nda yapilan ilk incelemede, kara kutu kayitlarinda her hangi bir bozukluga rastlanmadi.

GÖL ÜZERINDEYIZ SANDILAR

Devlet Hava Meydanlari Isletmesi radar kayitlarindan olusturulan bilgilere göre, MD83 tipi uçak, Isparta’ya inmek üzere yaklasma haritalarina uygun olarak 8 bin feet (2 bin 600 metre) yükseklige alçaldi. Önce Isparta meydanindaki VOR üzerine gelen uçak, yaklasma planina göre pistin üzerinden geçerek Burdur Gölü istikametine 12 mil uzaklasip /_newsimages/4606141.jpggeri dönecek ve piste inecekti. Ancak, bunun için VOR üzerinden 223 dereceye dönmesi gereken uçak, fazladan 30 derece daha saga dönüp 12 mil ilerledi. Bu açi da uçagi göl degil daglarin üzerine getirdi. Göl üzerinde olduklarini sanarak yaklasma haritasini takip eden pilotlar tekrar saga döndüler ve uçagin yönünü piste çevirdiklerini düsünerek devam ettiler. Plana göre 43 derece basla 05 numarali piste yaklasacak pilotlar, ilk dönüsteki 30 derecelik kaymanin üzerine, ikinci dönüste de açilarini genis tuttular. Bu da uçagi olmasi gereken uçus hattindan tam 50 derece saptirdi. Böylece 43 derece yerine 93 derece ile piste dogru uçan MD-83, daglarin üzerinde alçaliyordu. Mehtap olmasi, görüsün gece sartlarina ragmen 10 kilometre ve üzerinde olmasi pilotlari psikolojik açidan rahatlatmisti.

’PULL UP’ IKAZI YETMEDI

Pilotlar, daha sonra uçus planina göre piste 9 bin 250 metre kala, irtifalarini 1500 metreye indirmek için alçalmaya /_newsimages/4606142.jpgbasladi. Bu irtifada pisti karsilayacaklarini sanan pilotlar, 1951 metre yüksekligindeki Türbetepe’ye yaklasirken Kara Yakinligi Uyari Sistemi (GPWS) ’Çarpma uyarisi’ vermeye basladi. Önce ’mania’ diye pilotlari uyarin sistem, ardindan sesli ’pull-up (lövyeyi çek)’ ikazi vermeye basladi. Kaptan Pilot Özdemir yere birkaç metre kala gaz açarak yükselmek için lövyeyi kendine dogru çekti. Ancak MD83’lerin motorlari kuyrukta oldugu için, gazla birlikte uçagin kiç tarafi asagi çöktü. Kuyrugu yere degen uçak, Türbetepe’ye çarpti. Uzmanlar, kesin degerlendirmenin FDR kayitlarinin analizinden sonra bulunacagina dikkat çekerek sorunun pilotaj mi yoksa uçus göstergeleri arizasi kaynaklimi oldugunun belirlenecegine dikkat çektiler.

Enkaz kaldirildi

Isparta’da, 30 Kasim Cuma sabaha karsi, 7’si mürettebat 57 kisinin hayatini kaybetmesiyle sonuçlanan kazada düsen uçagin enkazini kaldirma çalismalari tamamlandi. Enkaz parçalari Isparta Organize Sanayi Bölgesi’nde kiralanan bir depoya götürüldü.

=============

Translation anyone?

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Old 12th Dec 2007, 01:15
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Report: FDR data poor, CVR inop



Report: Pilot error caused plane crash that killed 57

An initial investigation suggests pilot error caused a plane crash that killed all 57 people on board an Atlasjet plane last month, with authorities saying they believe the pilot became disoriented while preparing to land at Isparta in southwest Turkey and further investigation was needed.

"The primary data suggests the pilot lost spatial awareness," daily Zaman quoted an unidentified civil aviation official as saying. The office of Ali Ariduru, head of Turkey's Civil Aviation Authority, said he was not immediately available to comment on the reports. Atlasjet, the flight's operator, also declined to comment.

The Atlasjet MD-83 was flying from Istanbul to Isparta when it crashed early on the morning of Nov. 30, killing 50 passengers and seven crew members. Authorities said the plane was off its flight path when it crashed. The wreckage was found 11 kilometers from the airport, on a mountain at and elevation of around 1,500 meters.

Studies showed the cockpit voice recorder was not recording before the crash while the flight data recorder had little usable data. Officials had said there was no indication of sabotage in the disaster, which occurred in good weather just minutes before the plane was scheduled to land. Atlasjet, a private airline established in 2001, operates regular flights inside Turkey and chartered flights to Europe and other foreign destinations. Istanbul Today's Zaman with wires

12.12.2007
ALI ASLAN KILIÇ ANKARA
www.TodaysZaman.com
And now this:
Opposition asks for black box of crashed plane
Budget negotiations in Parliament yesterday were marked by opposition parties' focus on the lack of information recorded on the black box of a recently crashed Atlasjet airliner.

Bayram Meral, Istanbul deputy for the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), asked why the black box was empty and claimed that the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) government performed poorly with respect to investment in transportation. "In order to boost consumption, some people curbed the development of railways. The prime minister wore a hat and you called it a fast train. You led to the deaths of people," he said. Speaking on behalf of his party concerning the budget to be allocated to the Transport Ministry for 2008, Meral criticized the sale of highway buffets and Türk Telekom.

AK Party Izmir deputy Erdal Kalkan, speaking on behalf of his party concerning the Justice Ministry's budget, asserted that the decisions of the Supreme Military Council (YAS) and the Supreme Board of Prosecutors and Judges (HSYK) as well as the acts of the president should be subject to judicial review. Kalkan maintained that doubts about justice will lead to corruption in society and therefore trust in the judiciary should be reinstated.

AK Party Kastamonu deputy Musa Sivacioglu stated that two institutions, Parliament and the judiciary, make decisions acting on behalf of the Turkish nation. He explained that the judiciary has problems, but these are not new. Sivacioglu claimed that the AK Party government has "saved judges and prosecutors who were trapped between their conscience and their wallet, and left them facing only their conscience." AK Party Denizli deputy Mehmet Salih Erdogan asserted that all parties should unite in defending and relying on the law. Erdogan, noting that given its current workload it is impossible for the Supreme Court of Appeals not to make mistakes, said: "Of course, the Supreme Court of Appeals has given controversial decisions, but it has also ruled in many cases for protecting and extending freedoms."

Istanbul Today's Zaman with wires

12.12.2007
ALI ASLAN KILIÇ ANKARA
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Old 12th Dec 2007, 01:29
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Food for Thought

The following excerpts are from an AA Flight Safety article about results found in their Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP).


ASAP Turns Five and a Half
Prominenet Trends and Observations
Tom Chidester, Ph.D., Manager Human Factors & Safety Training
AA Flight Safety First Quarter 2000


...

The [heading deviations] increase was associated with decommissioning of the Omega Navigation System (ONS) and its delayed replacement with GFMS on MD-80s. Heading deviations on these aircraft rose sharply as the decommissioning began. The decline from the peak rate may be attributed to pilots on these aircraft re-establishing habit patterns for enroute navigation by ground based facilities or to increasing numbers of aircraft having GFMS installed, but overall, heading deviations remain significantly more frequent than 3 years ago.

...

Distraction from primary duties to other tasks (13% of randomly sampled reports). Distractions at a critical point in flight have produced altitude deviations, navigation errors, and runway incursions. The word “distraction” usually implies that attention is drawn from critical tasks to irrelevant factors in the situation. That is rarely the case in these reports. While distractions include factors within the pilots’ control such as timing of cabin communications and PA’s, most are inherent in the operation, such as weather, ACARS messages, distractions related to autoflight systems, and minor mechanical problems. Most of these events have occurred at a point of flight where more than one duty must be accomplished – pilots must set priorities between primary and secondary tasks.

...

NAV tuning, course selection, or altitude selection not coordinated between pilots (11%). A number of reports describe navigation to a fix or course other than intended. This re-emphasizes the need for both pilots to communicate their intentions for radio navigation. Frequency of these reports increased sharply following decommission of ONS, and most involve MD-80 crews. No comparable trend has been reported on the B-727, most of which have GPS replacing ONS navigation. These deviations have included early turns on airways where a turn point was defined by adding several DME segments, tracking a wrong (and unidentified) VOR, and failing to change course on station passage. All of these were potentially automated using ONS and all could at least be cross-checked with ONS information when the system was operative. Perhaps more importantly, MD-80 crews had frequently been using ONS-direct clearances, reducing their enroute radio navigation. Without this tool, MD-80 crews must revert to more basic IFR navigation, and that is something of a challenge to habit. Greater vigilance in navigation is necessary.

...

MEL noncompliance (7%). Crews have misinterpreted, not read, not signed, or flown with open items in the E-6 logbook resulting in deviations from the MEL.

...

Selection of wrong mode on mode control panel or autopilot interface, or entry of incorrect data into FMS (2%).

...

Autopilot or FMC anomaly – autoflight did not perform as expected (2%). These reports involved a failure of the autopilot to capture and hold an altitude, heading, target speed, course, or ILS as expected.

...

Checklist errors. Over the past six months, the ERT has observed a number of events where failure to complete items on a normal checklist led to a deviation or unsual situation. For example, events have resulted or been associated with failure to capture localizer due to NAV/RAD switch not reset to RAD, failure to set hydraulic pumps to high on the MD-80, and failing to verify final landing configuration. Many of these events are associated with distractions, but others are associated with low time in type by one or more crewmembers.

...


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