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Old 20th Sep 2023, 16:06
  #1041 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PowerPedal
the pace of progress from one fortnight to the next is impressive. The engine development, avionics, drive train, rotor system, lighting, trim, it all jumps significantly each fortnight.

sure he has missed the mark big time with his date forecasts. No way will there be flying prototypes by early 2024. And definitely won’t be any mass production commencing by end 2024.

but fit a complete fresh sheet ground up design he’s making good progress and I have no doubt at all that he will get something flying over the next year or two.
As far as I can tell, all those things are mostly powerpoint presentations with an odd physical part here and there. Apart from avionics, not a single item you mentioned is new technology. Considering that, jumps you find staggering are..... not really.
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Old 20th Sep 2023, 16:15
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Originally Posted by PowerPedal
wrong update. That’s just a side thing by a junior called Milan. Fluffy- forget those.
The latest fortnightly update was 2 days ago by Jason Hill. Great progress
Errr, the latest video was 16th August 2023. Four weeks ago.
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Old 20th Sep 2023, 22:29
  #1043 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by admikar
As far as I can tell, all those things are mostly powerpoint presentations with an odd physical part here and there. Apart from avionics, not a single item you mentioned is new technology. Considering that, jumps you find staggering are..... not really.
that’s completely incorrect. They are making actual components and assembling the physical aircraft at a rapid pace.
2 complete aircraft (one with skids, the other retracts) are being manufactured as we speak in time for the launch on 6 Dec. and they appear on track for this.

the regular updates are not available on YouTube to the public- hence why you all seem a little out of date- for example the latest 30 min update by JH this week was only visible via the Hill App for people with orders.
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Old 20th Sep 2023, 22:30
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Originally Posted by hargreaves99
Errr, the latest video was 16th August 2023. Four weeks ago.
Again wrong.
latest update was 18 September. 30 min presentation by Jason himself.
only visible via the App though.
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Old 20th Sep 2023, 22:33
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Originally Posted by CGameProgrammerr
Where are you guys seeing the latest update? The YouTube channel hasn't been updated in two weeks.
via App only. Very detailed 30 min update across all aspects of the program from JH on 18 sept.

big leaps forward
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Old 20th Sep 2023, 22:38
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Originally Posted by hargreaves99
I predict something will fly (ie hover briefly) in Sept 2024

The first few will be delivered in 2026

Anyone with build number over 100 will be waiting until 2028+
prob correct. So what?
if the biggest gripe you have is the timeframe then I’m ok with that.
I flew an R44 again over the weekend for first time in a year (normally fly my EC120) and just reminded me how basic and crappy the Robinson’s are in every aspect. Doors don’t even fit properly. And the R44 costs over US$600k and needs to be completely rebuilt every 12yrs.
If you guys think the Robinson’s are great then fantastic we are not on the same page.
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 00:43
  #1047 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah there's information asymmetry here. People who do their research know a lot more about this machine and where it's at than the average punter on here yelling at clouds. It no longer matters what the peanut gallery think; there's about 1000 orders and the only thing stopping it now is JH getting hit by a bus (which I think would only delay it at this point). The timeframe is the only question, but every 2-4 weeks there's a video update given to existing orders through the app, summarised every 1-2 months on a YouTube AMA, where general public get a compressed version due to time constraints.

The last couple of updates had progress in starter generator power electronics development, Digital cockpit, composites & windows, turbine blades, engine casings & plan for combustor tests coming up, lighting. All of the "misc" components like landing gear struts, brackets, metal inserts and the hundred random parts seemed to materialise the last month into almost a full set; that really isn't an issue. I think he said the mast packaging design is frozen and going to production. Seating being re-done with lessons learned from the rest of production to get thinner profile seating. Starting to work on trim. About a dozen other things I've missed, but basically big progress across all fronts, of which there are many.

And reminder, the HX50 is not certified; it's UK CAA permit to fly (read: experimental amateur built in FAA terminology, that has equivalence). But the machine is designed to eventually pass the latest certification standards, and once certified (years from now), will sell as HC50 (in parallel), so (JH's public opinion) the restrictions on your HX50 CoA should be similar to a well built RV (i.e. minimal or no restrictions). The parallel business model is clever; HX50 is much better for private ownership, and those who want to pay £200k extra for the piece of paper to hire/work it, can do so eventually with HC50. He's said about 100 times in his video's where explaining things, x,y,z is designed to the latest certification standards (example: you are not allowed to do a single Jesus bolt any more & HX will have many). Experimental aircraft are allowed to use non-certified high quality parts. So all the hoo ha about "this $100 third party replacement part costs $20,000 with the certificate, and Hill has you by the balls", simply do not apply. Hill's business model is affordable ownership and he's going to underwrite the hull (for cheap) so partner insurance companies can offer affordable insurance. Plus there's a 5 year (5,000hr) nose to tail warranty. I just cannot see a short/medium term situation where the business model is gouging customers like Robison do. In fact Robinson are now dependent on the 12 year rebuild kits to the point where they cannot remove this, and it has created the huge demand void that Hill is filling. See: 1,000 orders.

And my political take is the UK CAA will be under pressure (from post-brexit governments) to support new industry, and not to bog it down in EASA style red tape, so he's swimming with the river current, not against it.
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 01:11
  #1048 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Shagpile
Yeah there's information asymmetry here. People who do their research know a lot more about this machine and where it's at than the average punter on here yelling at clouds. It no longer matters what the peanut gallery think; there's about 1000 orders and the only thing stopping it now is JH getting hit by a bus (which I think would only delay it at this point). The timeframe is the only question, but every 2-4 weeks there's a video update given to existing orders through the app, summarised every 1-2 months on a YouTube AMA, where general public get a compressed version due to time constraints.

The last couple of updates had progress in starter generator power electronics development, Digital cockpit, composites & windows, turbine blades, engine casings & plan for combustor tests coming up, lighting. All of the "misc" components like landing gear struts, brackets, metal inserts and the hundred random parts seemed to materialise the last month into almost a full set; that really isn't an issue. I think he said the mast packaging design is frozen and going to production. Seating being re-done with lessons learned from the rest of production to get thinner profile seating. Starting to work on trim. About a dozen other things I've missed, but basically big progress across all fronts, of which there are many.

And reminder, the HX50 is not certified; it's UK CAA permit to fly (read: experimental amateur built in FAA terminology, that has equivalence). But the machine is designed to eventually pass the latest certification standards, and once certified (years from now), will sell as HC50 (in parallel), so (JH's public opinion) the restrictions on your HX50 CoA should be similar to a well built RV (i.e. minimal or no restrictions). The parallel business model is clever; HX50 is much better for private ownership, and those who want to pay £200k extra for the piece of paper to hire/work it, can do so eventually with HC50. He's said about 100 times in his video's where explaining things, x,y,z is designed to the latest certification standards (example: you are not allowed to do a single Jesus bolt any more & HX will have many). Experimental aircraft are allowed to use non-certified high quality parts. So all the hoo ha about "this $100 third party replacement part costs $20,000 with the certificate, and Hill has you by the balls", simply do not apply. Hill's business model is affordable ownership and he's going to underwrite the hull (for cheap) so partner insurance companies can offer affordable insurance. Plus there's a 5 year (5,000hr) nose to tail warranty. I just cannot see a short/medium term situation where the business model is gouging customers like Robison do. In fact Robinson are now dependent on the 12 year rebuild kits to the point where they cannot remove this, and it has created the huge demand void that Hill is filling. See: 1,000 orders.

And my political take is the UK CAA will be under pressure (from post-brexit governments) to support new industry, and not to bog it down in EASA style red tape, so he's swimming with the river current, not against it.
You’ve put it all perfectly Shagpile. Exciting times ahead. The Jason Hills of the world is what takes us forward, challenges the status quo, and is what we need.
If the world was filled with the likes of Hargreaves99, Admikar, Crab, Bengo, 206Jock, etc we would be just a bunch of grumpy old men looking for things to whinge about but getting absolutely nowhere.
wake up guys. Start looking for positives. Our industry is tired and stale. Don’t accept the status quo.

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Old 21st Sep 2023, 05:56
  #1049 (permalink)  
 
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Oh yes, the disruptors theory of technology advancement - worked really well for the Titan sub didn't it?

And one expert submariner who knew all the risks still went down for the last time because he was obsessed with the task (documenting the Titanic wreckage).

Are you sure you aren't being carried along on a FOMO and have your rose-tinted specs permanently installed?

I don't know what the actual helicopter flying experience of you hillophiles is but a lot of the questions are asked by people with many years experience of flying, operating and owning (in some cases) helicopters.
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 06:21
  #1050 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PowerPedal
You’ve put it all perfectly Shagpile. Exciting times ahead. The Jason Hills of the world is what takes us forward, challenges the status quo, and is what we need.
If the world was filled with the likes of Hargreaves99, Admikar, Crab, Bengo, 206Jock, etc we would be just a bunch of grumpy old men looking for things to whinge about but getting absolutely nowhere.
wake up guys. Start looking for positives. Our industry is tired and stale. Don’t accept the status quo.
Finally! I get to join the Grumpy old man club.

Hey PP, chill a bit. It's your money, you spend it how you want, knock yourself out. When you are flying your HX50 in 2026, pop by my place and give me a flight around.

Buy if you feel there is no room for doubt in this whole process, then you are naive. In the meantime, I am sure the GOM will continue to remind everyone of missed deadlines, cans being kicked down the road etc.
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 06:26
  #1051 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Shagpile
Yeah there's information asymmetry here. People who do their research know a lot more about this machine and where it's at than the average punter on here yelling at clouds. It no longer matters what the peanut gallery think; there's about 1000 orders and the only thing stopping it now is JH getting hit by a bus (which I think would only delay it at this point). The timeframe is the only question, but every 2-4 weeks there's a video update given to existing orders through the app, summarised every 1-2 months on a YouTube AMA, where general public get a compressed version due to time constraints.

The last couple of updates had progress in starter generator power electronics development, Digital cockpit, composites & windows, turbine blades, engine casings & plan for combustor tests coming up, lighting. All of the "misc" components like landing gear struts, brackets, metal inserts and the hundred random parts seemed to materialise the last month into almost a full set; that really isn't an issue. I think he said the mast packaging design is frozen and going to production. Seating being re-done with lessons learned from the rest of production to get thinner profile seating. Starting to work on trim. About a dozen other things I've missed, but basically big progress across all fronts, of which there are many.

And reminder, the HX50 is not certified; it's UK CAA permit to fly (read: experimental amateur built in FAA terminology, that has equivalence). But the machine is designed to eventually pass the latest certification standards, and once certified (years from now), will sell as HC50 (in parallel), so (JH's public opinion) the restrictions on your HX50 CoA should be similar to a well built RV (i.e. minimal or no restrictions). The parallel business model is clever; HX50 is much better for private ownership, and those who want to pay £200k extra for the piece of paper to hire/work it, can do so eventually with HC50. He's said about 100 times in his video's where explaining things, x,y,z is designed to the latest certification standards (example: you are not allowed to do a single Jesus bolt any more & HX will have many). Experimental aircraft are allowed to use non-certified high quality parts. So all the hoo ha about "this $100 third party replacement part costs $20,000 with the certificate, and Hill has you by the balls", simply do not apply. Hill's business model is affordable ownership and he's going to underwrite the hull (for cheap) so partner insurance companies can offer affordable insurance. Plus there's a 5 year (5,000hr) nose to tail warranty. I just cannot see a short/medium term situation where the business model is gouging customers like Robison do. In fact Robinson are now dependent on the 12 year rebuild kits to the point where they cannot remove this, and it has created the huge demand void that Hill is filling. See: 1,000 orders.

And my political take is the UK CAA will be under pressure (from post-brexit governments) to support new industry, and not to bog it down in EASA style red tape, so he's swimming with the river current, not against it.
That's great.
But why? If video is already there, why not put it out for all of us, it can only attract more attention?
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 06:27
  #1052 (permalink)  
 
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And Frank Robinson - a definite disruptor in the helicopter business - took only two years from founding the company to having his first one flying.

Shagpile, you have no idea about the longevity of Hills design so complaining about Robinsons 12-year rebuild is very premature.

Is Hill really doing anything different from the big manufacturers? The main thing I can see is he is using your money to do it instead of getting the investment from the markets.
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 06:34
  #1053 (permalink)  
 
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And my political take is the UK CAA will be under pressure (from post-brexit governments) to support new industry, and not to bog it down in EASA style red tape, so he's swimming with the river current, not against it.
Good luck withn that one!
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 06:50
  #1054 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PowerPedal
You’ve put it all perfectly Shagpile. Exciting times ahead. The Jason Hills of the world is what takes us forward, challenges the status quo, and is what we need.
If the world was filled with the likes of Hargreaves99, Admikar, Crab, Bengo, 206Jock, etc we would be just a bunch of grumpy old men looking for things to whinge about but getting absolutely nowhere.
wake up guys. Start looking for positives. Our industry is tired and stale. Don’t accept the status quo.
I'm sure JH is here, watching. You guys that are buying HX50 are quite happy to accept delays (not that you have any other choice at this point). We, the GOM, are the ones keeping heat under Hill's feet to move along as fast as he can.
You should actually say thank you to us.
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 06:54
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I would love JH to achieve all what he promises. I think he will get something in the air, close-ish to his specs, but it will be years and years before he's making 500 a year,

JH checks this forum at 7am everyday, so yes, he is watching. It would be great if he contributed here, to shut up all us "doom-mongerers"!



Last edited by hargreaves99; 21st Sep 2023 at 07:10.
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 07:31
  #1056 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by admikar
That's great.
But why? If video is already there, why not put it out for all of us, it can only attract more attention?
My thoughts exactly

Many years ago I was handed a video and told to watch it and not tell anybody else. Excitedly I pushed it into the VCR and pressed play. Up came the Amway logo and I pressed eject and handed it back
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 07:57
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In the latest edition of Vertical magazine, they had a helicopter manufacturer survey involving 1300 industry professionals, I was surprise to see Guimbal doing so well
the point is, there is room for the small players like hill helicopters to change the industry for the better it seems.
although more agressive the hill aproach has some roots in the guimbal model: "renewing the model that robinson pioneered for the R22"





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Old 21st Sep 2023, 08:19
  #1058 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
Oh yes, the disruptors theory of technology advancement - worked really well for the Titan sub didn't it?

And one expert submariner who knew all the risks still went down for the last time because he was obsessed with the task (documenting the Titanic wreckage).

Are you sure you aren't being carried along on a FOMO and have your rose-tinted specs permanently installed?

I don't know what the actual helicopter flying experience of you hillophiles is but a lot of the questions are asked by people with many years experience of flying, operating and owning (in some cases) helicopters.
Except Stockton Rush was a self-confessed maverick rule-breaker who refused to have any form of oversight from anyone in any authority.
As far as I've seen, Hill are working closely with the CAA..?
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 09:12
  #1059 (permalink)  
 
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Except Stockton Rush was a self-confessed maverick rule-breaker who refused to have any form of oversight from anyone in any authority.
As far as I've seen, Hill are working closely with the CAA..?
A fair point re Rush but the French chap, who should have known much, much better, went along with him despite knowing the risks.

As for working with the CAA, you don't have a choice if you want a permit to fly aircraft - and Hill don't have one yet.
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Old 21st Sep 2023, 11:20
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Originally Posted by [email protected]
And Frank Robinson - a definite disruptor in the helicopter business - took only two years from founding the company to having his first one flying..
Then took another 4 years before entering production…




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