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AW139 Crash in Bahamas - 7 Killed

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AW139 Crash in Bahamas - 7 Killed

Old 11th Jul 2019, 23:50
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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I知 inclined to put my pint with SASless , but bearing in mind the extent of the damage to the aircraft will the investigation team/teams really be able to come up with a definitive answer.

Last edited by nomorehelosforme; 12th Jul 2019 at 01:11.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 00:23
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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The two categories are....Mechanical Malfunction and CFIT.

You can take your pick of any number of events that fall under Mechanical Malfunction or a single choice under the alternative.

Remember the Foot Ball Stadium crash that killed the Team Owner....how many folks went for the Pilot Error option when it was actually a Tail Rotor Control mechanical failure?

We had a real time video of that one and all of the Keyboard Investigators got it wrong early on.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 01:28
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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My money is on this was a mechanical failure caused event....rather than the stock CFIT thing
Not a betting person SAS, but one thing I know is it doesn't matter how much experience one has, you're only as good as your last flight, the next may prove to be the one you cock up right royally. Can recall two 747's that barrel rolled on take off at night into the dirt (water in one case), one a freighter and other a pax, no survivors.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 02:03
  #224 (permalink)  
 
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Boeing 747, Air India flt 855, 1 Jan 78. Departed Bombay on a moonless night out over the Arabian Sea. 213 pax, 18K-hour captain. A mile offshore climbing through 1200' MSL and rolled almost inverted and hit the water 35 deg nosedown at 380 mph. Captain's ADI failed but he ignored the standby and the 1st officer's ADI. 1st officer pretty much just sat there in disbelief, apparently.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 02:19
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Thomascoupling View Post
...1st officer pretty much just sat there in disbelief, apparently.
Yep. Seen that all the time in the simulator. They won't say or do anything to save themselves at the critical moment they should be taking affirmative action to save themselves. They arrive at the scene of the smoking hole in silence, sitting on their hands. Although sometimes, flicking through a checklist and not much else (not suggesting of course that scenario applied in this AW139).

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Old 12th Jul 2019, 02:23
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by gulliBell View Post
Yep. Seen that all the time in the simulator. They won't say or do anything to save themselves at the critical moment they should be taking affirmative action to save themselves. They arrive at the scene of the smoking hole in silence, sitting on their hands. Although sometimes, flicking through a checklist and not much else (not suggesting of course that scenario applied in this AW139).
Nor was I suggesting the same cockpit scenario for the AW-139 tragedy....just that some really bad s..t can happen very quickly even with the best pilots and equipment.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 05:36
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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Both scenarios are feasible. Given the conditions and phase of flight, CFIT has claimed many a good man in similar circumstances. Equally, two experienced pilots in a capable aircraft going out this way would raise other questions.
In either case, it is pretty vulgar betting beer on the cause of death of 7 people.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 07:01
  #228 (permalink)  
 
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Sas wrote:

My money is on this was a mechanical failure caused event....rather than the stock CFIT thing
If it was a serious mechanical failure, it could have wide ranging (temporary) consequences for the 139.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 07:56
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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That depends on what they find...a previous repair or maintenance issue specific to this particular aircraft wouldn't affect the rest of the 139 fleet. It might be as simple as something not bolted on properly, or whatever.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 10:47
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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That depends on what they find...a previous repair or maintenance issue specific to this particular aircraft wouldn't affect the rest of the 139 fleet
Really? Thanks for pointing that out to me.

“Could” used to indicate a possibility.

”Temporary” lasting for only a limited period of time; not permanent
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 11:10
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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You were right, I wasn't disputing anything. A serious mechanical failure could have wide ranging consequences for the 139. As it did for the 169.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 11:53
  #232 (permalink)  
 
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Angel

Not only is Crab the best pilot in the world, he’s also the best parent in the world!

is there anything he can’t dole out patronising post-event wisdom on?
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 12:48
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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it is pretty vulgar betting beer on the cause of death of 7 people.
If we were making wagers before the event....I would agree with you to an extent.

How many times have you flown with someone and thought to yourself....."This guy is going to kill himself one day!"...knowing he might just have passengers with him when he does?

If you did think that and said nothing to anyone....especially the nimrod in question at the time....then I see that as doing just that...wagering on the manner of death of people in the future.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 12:48
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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I知 with Bell Ringer on this.....rumour mill, forum or whatever, betting pints on who is correct on this doesn稚 sit well. We accept that families and loved ones looking for answers on here is not their best move but whether it be mech failure or CFIT it痴 the same result. I知 always happy to shout a pint for anyone more experienced or proficient than I (which I am always hopeful is most) that would share their knowledge so I知 hopefully never the subject of a bet. Think about it boys and girls.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 13:00
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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I'm in the CFIT camp on this one.
This incident has all the holes in the cheese. Dark night, black hole departure, possible circadian rhythm, and perceived pressure from the medical event.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 13:55
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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Well done FC80, that added a great deal to this thread - you must be so proud.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 16:58
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Crab, is your skin getting a bit thin with age? Don't dish it out if you can't take it
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 20:37
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Toroidal Vortex View Post
Crab, is your skin getting a bit thin with age? Don't dish it out if you can't take it
Hmmm, first post Toriodal Vortex to support a knob comment from FC80??? Never seen that before, a new nomdepprune being used to try and save face............

Hardly thin-skinned and I'd love to see where you think I dished it out to deserve such tosh.

Love and kisses.....
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 22:37
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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It was a moonless night down here. I do not think it was CFIT (Controlled Flight Into Terrain). This accident speaks more of a spatial disorientation with Uncontrolled Flight into the water due to the level of destruction to the aircraft. We see this all the time down here on moonless nights, transitioning over land to over open water.

Anyone that says these pilots were too experienced to have that happen... you need to reassess yourself and realize it can happen to any pilot regardless of time and experience. If a pilot is not current in the exact conditions of this night then they are at risk. It can happen to any of us.

I flew that night. It was DEEP IMC over the water. DEEP, DARK. Challenging flight conditions for sure. I fly the moonless nights over water regularly down here. It is hard core.

It was 2 am, factor in the time, fatigue, pressure....it can happen to even the best, most experienced pilots. These guys certainly seem top notch but again, spatial disorientation with a very deep hole departure can lead to a crash for any of us....high or low time.
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Old 13th Jul 2019, 00:14
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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It may be prejudice, but I'm in the mechanical failure camp. The tail being 500 ft from the main fuselage, after a low altitude crash into shallow water, seems difficult to explain otherwise.

Also in the back of my mind is a memory of an earlier Leonardo helo killing the management team of a major NJ casino by an unexpected rotor failure. It suggests they make Ferrari aircraft, super performing, but with frailties.
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