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What's happening in CHC?

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What's happening in CHC?

Old 14th Jul 2015, 21:58
  #161 (permalink)  
 
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Share price down 50% in the last month to 61 cents. Spare aircraft eating lease payments. I hope it comes out the other side. There are some excellent people and systems at CHC.
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Old 15th Jul 2015, 14:24
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Good point about excellent people and systems.
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Old 16th Jul 2015, 21:00
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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Making a stand: Norwich staff left jobless by dispute between helicopter firms | Mustard TV
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Old 17th Jul 2015, 16:21
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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Bellow 50 cents a share now 45 cents lost 13% on yesterdays close
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Old 17th Jul 2015, 17:33
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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They must be getting close to the point where the Stock Exchange delists them for their shares being worth nothing.
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Old 17th Jul 2015, 21:21
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Wow, you guys are so obsessed with the stock price.

Let me ask 2 questions of you:

1. According to your logic, CHC is worth $40m. Let me ask you, if you took that offer to the people who own it do you think they would say yes and sell to you? I propose that they would say no and therefore the value of the company is higher. The value of the available shares is what the market says but nothing more.

2. The fact that people are still buying (needs 2 sides to trade, buyer and seller) shares when people sell them indicates that plenty of people out there think there is upside. The stock is down 95% ish in 18 months when the fundamentals are actually better then they were when CHC floated. Do any of you think for the notional $40m, CHC is over priced, underpriced or fair value?

By no means is CHC out of the woods but $50m? Please... They own ac worth more than that alone (just about).
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Old 17th Jul 2015, 21:28
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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And can we please dispel the notion that value is remotely connected with being a listed stock on the Big Board.

Read through this and revert if you find the rule which would de-list CHC on value grounds.

NYSE Listed Company Manual

NWS.
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Old 18th Jul 2015, 03:36
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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802.01C Price Criteria for Capital or Common Stock

A company will be considered to be below compliance standards if the average closing price of a security as reported on the consolidated tape is less than $1.00 over a consecutive 30 trading-day period.

Once notified, the company must bring its share price and average share price back above $1.00 by six months following receipt of the notification. A company is not eligible to follow the procedures outlined in Paras. 802.02 and 802.03 with respect to this criteria. The company must, however, notify the Exchange, within 10 business days of receipt of the notification, of its intent to cure this deficiency or be subject to suspension and delisting procedures. In addition, a domestic company must disclose receipt of the notification by issuing a press release disclosing the fact that it has fallen below the continued listing standards of the Exchange within the time period allotted by SEC rules for the making of a filing with respect to Exchange notification of that event, but no longer than four business days after notification. A non-U.S. company must issue this press release within 30 days after notification. If the company fails to issue this press release during the allotted time period, the Exchange will issue the requisite press release. The company can regain compliance at any time during the six-month cure period if on the last trading day of any calendar month during the cure period the company has a closing share price of at least $1.00 and an average closing share price of at least $1.00 over the 30 trading-day period ending on the last trading day of that month. In the event that at the expiration of the six-month cure period, both a $1.00 closing share price on the last trading day of the cure period and a $1.00 average closing share price over the 30 trading-day period ending on the last trading day of the cure period are not attained, the Exchange will commence suspension and delisting procedures.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, if a company determines that, if necessary, it will cure the price condition by taking an action that will require approval of its shareholders, it must so inform the Exchange in the above referenced notification, must obtain the shareholder approval by no later than its next annual meeting, and must implement the action promptly thereafter. The price condition will be deemed cured if the price promptly exceeds $1.00 per share, and the price remains above the level for at least the following 30 trading days.
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Old 18th Jul 2015, 06:38
  #169 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by nowherespecial View Post
Wow, you guys are so obsessed with the stock price.

Let me ask 2 questions of you:

1. According to your logic, CHC is worth $40m. Let me ask you, if you took that offer to the people who own it do you think they would say yes and sell to you? I propose that they would say no and therefore the value of the company is higher. The value of the available shares is what the market says but nothing more.

2. The fact that people are still buying (needs 2 sides to trade, buyer and seller) shares when people sell them indicates that plenty of people out there think there is upside. The stock is down 95% ish in 18 months when the fundamentals are actually better then they were when CHC floated. Do any of you think for the notional $40m, CHC is over priced, underpriced or fair value?

By no means is CHC out of the woods but $50m? Please... They own ac worth more than that alone (just about).
My friend you are misguided (and that's being very polite)

Your view of a buyer for every seller, giving you some comfort that someone sees value in the name, fails to recognise the direction the stock is going... I.e down. I.e the buyers are buying lower and at a higher price there will obviously be more sellers..

CHC are fukked and clearly there are on going sellers of the stock, the management have provided no guidance in the recent past nor seem to be doing so now, neither are they buying the stock, nobody is bidding for the thing out right and if your valuation is now simply based upon a "sum of the parts" I.e they own X old helicopters worth Y. That is hardly a great endorsement for the business.

You have not the first idea why you or anyone else would buy CHC other than it is cheaper today than yesterday... Sadly for you that trend continues.

Regarding those living and breathing the company day to day in the real world is be asking some big questions around a plan for the future and the reality of CHC ability to fund itself. Frankly if I worked there and had other options I'd take them.
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Old 18th Jul 2015, 07:41
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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Pitts. It is you who is not living in the real world. In the real world the boys and girls at CHC get up each day and provide a considerable service to their clients earning good revenue in the process. In the real world, real people do real work every day, without fail, come rain or shine.

In the shameful, diseased, broken and frankly dishonest world of stocks and shares good Companies are destroyed by greed, gossip and that ridiculous thing called "confidence" brought about mainly by dorks like you spouting shite!

I have many colleagues, some freinds and a few enemies in CHC, all whom collectively deserve more credit and support than the rubbish posted on this thread.

Share trading, stocks, banks andthe collective financial industry have proved beyond doubt that they are no freinds of true business. People have lost jobs, houses, livelihoods and even their lives due to the garbage and misrepresentation spread by people like you Pitts.

I work every day in this industry. Everywhere I go I see CHC people and aircraft working hard, looking good and making bacon.

Give it a rest with your doomsaying rhetoric.
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Old 18th Jul 2015, 08:01
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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DB sorry but I've no energy to engage in the school yard type jibes that typify much and many of your postings.

Ive not knocked the people working at CHC, I don't doubt they are hard working people doing a good job. You sounding sympathetic to their cause / plight sadly isn't going do them any good though is it?

CHC isn't trading where it is because of some handbaging on here nor will it rise because of a good noshing.

You and others critical of the market what you forget is its there you find people who actually own the company. Full stop.

I sounded caution of the company lately after questioning NWS and asking him why he was a buyer. Nothing to date has changed that view and looking at where the stock trades it seems it's not a isolated view.

Hard work alone won't save the company, like it hasn't saved very many other industries and business in the past. To think other wise is merely sticking your head in the sand.

If you don't mind tell me how I've mis-represented anything in this thread. Just one thing....
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Old 18th Jul 2015, 09:31
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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Pittsextra,

You are really Jonathan Balliff and I claim my $5.
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Old 18th Jul 2015, 12:44
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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MGD, once again we are in chronic agreement.

On the topic of the NYSE rules, I actually deleted that post once I found the rule everyone was quoting about but hey ho, I'll take that as a learning point.

On that topic though, CHC (CD&R) can just do a 10:1 swap and miraculously the shares become worth $4 again. It's easy to do, Apple and Citigroup are among the companies that have altered their share structure in this way.

Mitchaa you too are right

Professional investors (of the buy and hold brigade) bought a huge chunk of the remaining 25% (ish) that CD&R didn't buy and now the available shares for joe public for private investment is a fraction of the total number of shares. On a daily basis around 350k shares are traded (current value about $170k) of the outstanding (ie shares that were issued at the IPO) 72m. It's a very illiquid stock, a very small company by NYSE standards and a bit of a tight spot (but emerging) with bad sentiment and some long term investors. We should all expect volatility.

Pitts, after this I'm done but I note that you didn't actually answer my 2 questions.

I've just bought 2000 shares and we can revisit this conversation in 2 years time.
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Old 18th Jul 2015, 20:29
  #174 (permalink)  
 
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Pitts, I note that you didn't actually answer my 2 questions.
Sorry I saw these as statements which previously I thought I'd tried to point you in a direction but again to try and help...


1. According to your logic, CHC is worth $40m. Let me ask you, if you took that offer to the people who own it do you think they would say yes and sell to you? I propose that they would say no and therefore the value of the company is higher. The value of the available shares is what the market says but nothing more.
That is absolutely how it works. Market capitalisation = number of shares x the share price...

I don't know how else to explain it really. Ultimately a share is what? Its a claim on future cash flows of the entity in question and so whilst you may think it (CHC) should be worth more, or First Reserve may like to wish it was worth more.... the market is telling you it isn't.

Here is a list that you will be able to see for the major holders of CHC:-

CHC Group Ltd. (HELI) Ownership Summary - NASDAQ.com

So the share you see quoted and could buy at 42cents is the very same thing as held by First Reserve (the major holder of common stock). The same. i.e. if your share is worth 42cents... so is every single one of their individual shares.

The CD&R holding that you keep mentioning is in convertible preferred shares, which is different to common equity. These instruments are a debt instrument that give the holder (in this case CD&R) a coupon (i.e. something that gives a % return - like a bond) and the opportunity for CD&R to convert these into common equity (yes the same as we have been talking about above and is trading at 42cents...)... giving the holder the option to benefit from a higher stock price... Hmmm not today anyway. Plus they have the added kicker that as preferred shares the common stock holders are subordinate to these in the event of any default.. Which brings us nicely onto a point in your question No.2....


By no means is CHC out of the woods but $50m? Please... They own ac worth more than that alone (just about).
So immediately your $50m of helicopters are going.... yes... CD&R... they take first dibs.

Err come on NWS when you say..

2. The fact that people are still buying (needs 2 sides to trade, buyer and seller) shares when people sell them indicates that plenty of people out there think there is upside. The stock is down 95% ish in 18 months when the fundamentals are actually better then they were when CHC floated. Do any of you think for the notional $40m, CHC is over priced, underpriced or fair value?
The market is pricing 42cents. That was where the stock closed in the auction on Friday.. i.e. the price where buyers and sellers met.. It doesn't matter what I think, you think, DB thinks, the workers grafting hard everyday think. The people who OWN, want to OWN it or do not want to OWN it think this is fair value.

So do you get it now? Because this:-

Professional investors (of the buy and hold brigade) bought a huge chunk of the remaining 25% (ish) that CD&R didn't buy and now the available shares for joe public for private investment is a fraction of the total number of shares.
suggests you don't understand the structure and therefore when you say you have spent the grand sum of $840 on 2000 shares you are not clear on what that is....

we can revisit this conversation in 2 years time.
Please do but you seem to mistake me trying to explain the reality of CHC stock and how it trades as me hoping / wishing or wanting CHC to fail. Thats not it. I do not I'm merely trying to point out the elements that you are clearly missing.

Good luck in your trade.

As for this:-

Forgive me if I'm wrong here but only a 1/4 of the company is traded on in the NYSE? CD&R only ever put up 25-26% of the company for trade.

So even if the shares dropped to $0.01, it's not going to end CHC like some on here would like to believe.

It's a company that is year on year bringing in $1.8bn worth of revenue.
What are you talking about?? Do you understand the difference between revenue and earnings for example? If you are willing to trade $100 bills for $10 you will generate a great deal of revenue..... You will not however have much to show by way of earnings.....

Fukk me its painful.

When a stock trades at 1cent what do you think that is telling you?
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Old 19th Jul 2015, 08:47
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Last quote is not from me Pitts... At least I had the decency to admit my NYSE rule error, doubt I'll get same from you on this.

You're financial acumen fell apart when you quoted NASDAQ data when CHC is listed on the NYSE and then mentioned FR who sold out last year.

"That is absolutely how it works. Market capitalisation = number of shares x the share price... "
This is true but shows you did markets 101 and nothing further. A market says the current price of the AVAILABLE shares (ie what a current buyer will pay a current seller). As I said, ask CD&R if they'd sell at that price and the answer would be a big fat no. Thus while the market cap is a simple easy to understand number, it does not (and never has) reflected an actual value for the whole company.

I'm done with you. Ciao.

Last edited by nowherespecial; 19th Jul 2015 at 09:10.
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Old 19th Jul 2015, 18:34
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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PittsExtra is right

I followed a few lectures in finance as a part of an MBA study. The one important knowledge/wisdom I got out of that is that the stockmarket prices reflects the Net Present Value of all future profit of a company on a per share basis. Thus I realised the rationale behind the high valuation of Google, Apple and the likes.

Thus the market currently does not think that CHC will make serious profits in the future.
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Old 20th Jul 2015, 04:05
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks Toolboy

About the most instructive and non-acerbic reply here!
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Old 20th Jul 2015, 11:59
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by nowherespecial View Post
Last quote is not from me Pitts... At least I had the decency to admit my NYSE rule error, doubt I'll get same from you on this.

You're financial acumen fell apart when you quoted NASDAQ data when CHC is listed on the NYSE and then mentioned FR who sold out last year.

"That is absolutely how it works. Market capitalisation = number of shares x the share price... "
This is true but shows you did markets 101 and nothing further. A market says the current price of the AVAILABLE shares (ie what a current buyer will pay a current seller). As I said, ask CD&R if they'd sell at that price and the answer would be a big fat no. Thus while the market cap is a simple easy to understand number, it does not (and never has) reflected an actual value for the whole company.

I'm done with you. Ciao.
Hey sorry I can see things are getting spikey and certainly I've no axe to grind with you, the company or anyone else.

I know this is dragging on and on but it is important to be accurate on this stuff because people shouldn't be misguided by wrong statements.

The Nasdaq website you are unhappy with was just used as it was convenient. You could type any U.S. ticker in their search engine and it will give data. Alternatively you could go to NYSE site and look for the holders of CHC which trades under the ticker HELI and it will give the same data - like I said I happened to be using the Nasdaq site so I hope that clears that up for you.

FR did not sell out last year. It is too long for here and explanation needs to have a level of assumed prior knowledge but here is random release for the CD&R investment.

https://www.pehub.com/canada/2014/08/22/clayton-dubilier-rice-invests-500-mln-chc-helicopter/

The interesting part for you and the CD&R relationship and the FR stake is in the press release and describes the convert terms. It starts:-

"CD&R will have a 45-percent ownership position in CHC Group on an as-converted, pro-forma basis, based on a $500 million investment and prior to the rights offering. This percentage could decrease or increase depending on participation of existing shareholders in the rights offering. First Reserve Corporation and its affiliates, which purchased CHC in 2008, would retain approximately 29-percent ownership in CHC, on a pro-forma basis."

Is that helpful?

When you talk about "available" shares, that is the "free float" but the shares are still shown on a holders list, still show corporate ownership and the valuation of the entity - they are just not actively traded.

Happy for you to show me / others your own CHC holders list from the NYSE or other source that you think is so different. Maybe try CHC corporate site and look under "investor relations".
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Old 20th Jul 2015, 15:56
  #179 (permalink)  
 
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This entire scenario brings perfect clarity to that ancient helicopter proverb.

"How do you make a small fortune in the helicopter business?"

"Start with a large one and just give it time!"

Sadly, I think they omitted that part in Business School when doing their MBA.
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Old 21st Jul 2015, 07:28
  #180 (permalink)  
 
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Thumbs down

It's all excessively worrying nevertheless.

Clearly the company is not being viewed by the market as being in a healthy state. How bad things are remain to be seen, the share price is down remarkably low in a very short time, there are pending litigations against the company, the price of oil is down and could fall even more, there are less contracts, and some lost. Over three-quarters of a BILLION dollars ($783 Million) has melted away in valuation in 18 months. That is roughly a 1.5 Million EVERY DAY since the IPO.

The most worrying bit is that there is complete silence from the the leadership on the situation. If ever there was a moment for a rousing speech to the troops, this might be the time.

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