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What's happening in CHC?

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What's happening in CHC?

Old 1st Jul 2015, 08:50
  #141 (permalink)  
 
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Guys you forget that CHC is not a liquid stock like Vodafone or HSBC which trades millions of shares a day, CHC have very low volume. What you are seeing is penny share traders (day traders and amateur investors) now cutting their losses. Professional investors (pension funds, etc) are still in the game. I've mentioned this before but if only about 5% of the company's shares are available to 'joe public' then they will always be volatile. These earnings are still in the red and by a lot and many will take this as the cue to leave CHC as an investment but I bet this time next year, the major investors below CD&R are still holding similar levels of stock.

If you wanted to buy in, now is a good time IMHO.
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Old 1st Jul 2015, 09:30
  #142 (permalink)  
 
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If you wanted to buy in, now is a good time IMHO.
Based on what??

Regards trading the name, look here:-

CHC Group Ltd. (HELI) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com

Those names are not retail punters and net/net there are more sellers than buyers, hence the price goes down....its not hard!

CD&R is not a straight forward example is it.. given the coupon!
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Old 1st Jul 2015, 10:15
  #143 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Pirate View Post
Some CHC Global EASA pilots have been made redundant rather than placed in DH..go figure? And GHPA are doing what exactly to help these people...
I'm one of them.

Frankly speaking I rather prefer to go back to sling load or HEMS flying instead of waiting the 6 months layoff period to expire, not to mention returning back to CHC in the future.
I'm very sad for the high seniority pilots that had been disposed like trash after 20 or 30 years service. Full big hug to them.
I'm still young, I can find a job anywhere else. But what's happening in this fu....g company makes me wonder what could happen when I'll be 59 instead of 44.

Cheers
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Old 1st Jul 2015, 11:00
  #144 (permalink)  
 
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Pitts,

Your understanding of how financial markets is large enough to know you know something, but not enough to know a lot. I'm sorry to be brutal but you take all the wrong stats here. You'd be easy meat on a trading floor.

Firstly, there are 72m shares outstanding (ie those that could be bought or sold if the owners want to). Of those c.46m are owned by CD&R. 68m of those outstanding are owned by 12 institutions, 10 of whom are classic buy and hold investors OR (and this is important) tracker funds.

What this means is that if a stock rises into the S&P500 or similar, an investment company is FORCED to buy it for it's tracker portfolios. When you have a lot of buyers ploughing in, the price goes mental. The flip side is that when a company releases results which are not that great, investors that bought it for a tracker fund (lets say an oil and gas services fund), then they get crucified by the same people.

1.5m are owned by hedge funds who LOVE volatile stocks, especially Citadel. This means they forecast bad results and gamble on the stock getting beaten up. In order to make maximum leverage on the stock, they have to own some so they buy in and then bet against it.

It is important to remember that stock prices are an indicator of 2 things:
1. The actual value of the company. For example Apple trades at several times their annual revenue, Shell at much less. Which is a bigger company? How do you judge that? How do you value that?

2. Sentiment. A business might be fine in the underlying but market sentiment builds it up or kills it. Happened to Lehmans Brothers in 2007, underlying liquidity was fine (overall) but sentiment killed them off. The market thinks CHC is screwed and that is fine, it is the market's right to say so with the share price but do you really think that CHC with revenue of $1.7bn is really an $80m company?

I am not trying to say CHC is all roses, far from it. These results are still bad but they are def better than last years and the owners of the company are in it for the long haul. You only lose money when you actually trade something. Right now CD&R are sitting on a huge paper loss BUT they own the company and are in a position to make money in the future. CD&R will not let this investment fail. I would be surprised if the names on the ownership list were not the same next year.

Last edited by nowherespecial; 1st Jul 2015 at 11:02. Reason: appalling grammar....
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Old 1st Jul 2015, 17:15
  #145 (permalink)  
 
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I don't have the energy to get into the usual squabble but in all that nonsense you still haven't told me what your rational is for investment...

Picture this... You are the trader. Yesterday you picked up a bunch of HELI.US and right now you are over 5% off side (that's right it's down another 5% today) so what's your plan? You cut? You buy more and average in? If so how much more? Then at what point are we taking profit or managing our risk on the downside??

Simply saying XYZ are in the trade and we are copying isn't going to wash when you're in a glass box with the boss chewing you out.....
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Old 1st Jul 2015, 20:31
  #146 (permalink)  
 
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looks like they closed at 0.62 $

How far does it need to go?
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Old 1st Jul 2015, 21:47
  #147 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by helimutt View Post
looks like they closed at 0.62 $

How far does it need to go?
Exactly but the answer is likely another 62c and now our young trader "nowherespecial" is living up to his name and is what?30-40% underwater... If he hasnt been forced to cut his position already then the glass box awaits tomorrow...

It's fukked frankly it's a pure punt - it can be worth $2 or zero. For most it is utterly untradable.
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Old 2nd Jul 2015, 05:59
  #148 (permalink)  
 
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I know nothing about stock markets but.......is not the idea to buy when the price is low in the hope it recovers and you make a big profit? If this is the idea then surely the CHC shares would be a good investment if you believe the Company will recover!
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Old 2nd Jul 2015, 14:07
  #149 (permalink)  
 
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Yes indeed you guys might be right, it might be worth $1,2,10 in time. But it could also be 0.

It is absolutely good to buy low... But then you intend to sell higher, not sell lower.

As said in the couple days we have been discussing the stock price it's tanked. Maybe this is the time to wade in, but it requires a reasoned view and knowledge of the company. Not just buy something because it was more expensive in the past - many many people got burnt in things like Lehman, Bradford and bingley, Northern Rock, Washington mutual, Ambac etc taking that same view all the way to zero..
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Old 4th Jul 2015, 11:46
  #150 (permalink)  
 
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It is tempting to buy - for an ignoramus like myself - unfortunately don't have the readies at the mo, but if you want to lend me some I'll pay you back when I make my fortune............
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Old 5th Jul 2015, 03:51
  #151 (permalink)  
 
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Talked to my investment guy last night and he said he would not invest my money in CHC. If I wanted to, I would have to find someone else! He has lots of clients who borrowed money to buy shares at $9 because they were speculating that it would go up to $15-17 and now they are hooped!
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Old 5th Jul 2015, 13:18
  #152 (permalink)  
 
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I hope your investment guy did not advise his clients to borrow money to buy the stock?


Is always a gamble in the stock market best advise I had was when you invest be prepared to lose it.


Should be following Bristow stock to compare the two stocks, they are also down right now to almost there year low of $50. The high was $80.


So imagine the investors who bought at $80 and now trading at almost $50. That is a big drop and much bigger then the 9 dollars or so that CHC stock have gone down.
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Old 5th Jul 2015, 13:32
  #153 (permalink)  
 
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That is a big drop and much bigger then the 9 dollars or so that CHC stock have gone down.
Not on this earth.

Let's suppose two investors each had $10000 to invest and each bought either BRS or CHC at or near the high and nobody charged them commissions.

Our BRS investor would have bought around 125 shares at $80/sh.

Our CHC investor would have bought around 1000 shares at $10/sh.

The BRS investment is now worth around $6250, or a loss of around 37%.

The CHC investment is now worth around $700, or a loss of around 93%.

I'm forever amazed at how some ostensibly educated adults can't manage percentages, compound interest, and other fairly simple life mathematical skills.
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Old 5th Jul 2015, 13:54
  #154 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Um... lifting... View Post
Not on this earth...........


........I'm forever amazed at how some ostensibly educated adults can't manage percentages, compound interest, and other fairly simple life mathematical skills.
Or when to use capitals. Earth has a capital 'E'.
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Old 5th Jul 2015, 16:27
  #155 (permalink)  
 
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First Reserve?s Funds Pitch South - WSJ

Sharpest minds in the world can lose billions, apparently as easily as the unsophisticated, unwashed, uninformed masses. (EESDL take heart!)

You can thank all those pension funds starry-eyed for promised double-digit returns for your paycheck. For now.
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Old 5th Jul 2015, 18:08
  #156 (permalink)  
 
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Or when to use capitals. Earth has a capital 'E'.
It certainly does when used as a proper noun or at the beginning of a sentence.

The very next time I use it in either fashion, I'll keep that in mind.

Curiously, the word 'satsuma' is much the same, referring to several places by that name, a couple different types of fruit, a genus of land snail, a type of pottery, and a few other uses.

I've never seen it not capitalized. Oh, wait, strike that.

Aren't we talking about market capitalization here, and not word capitalization?
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Old 5th Jul 2015, 21:21
  #157 (permalink)  
 
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You've got too much time on your hands.
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Old 5th Jul 2015, 22:04
  #158 (permalink)  
 
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Whatever you say, Mr. Kettle.
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Old 14th Jul 2015, 11:51
  #159 (permalink)  
 
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Lol @ um...lifting.

So Monsieur, you seem a bright, educated sort of chap. I'd be interested in your opinion of CHC's future, if you're willing to give it.
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Old 14th Jul 2015, 21:58
  #160 (permalink)  
 
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Share price down 50% in the last month to 61 cents. Spare aircraft eating lease payments. I hope it comes out the other side. There are some excellent people and systems at CHC.
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