Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
 

From Ryanair this morning... not the most optimistic reading

DUBLIN, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Airline Ryanair <RYA.I> posted a sharper than expected drop in third-quarter net profit on Monday and warned high oil prices, an economic slowdown in the UK and weak sterling meant profits may fall up to 50 percent next year. Europe's biggest low-cost carrier said excluding a one-off gain from the sale of aircraft net profit in the three months to the end of December fell 27 percent to 35 million euros ($52
million) as winter fares fell almost 5 percent.

That was below an average forecast of 41.8 million euros and in line with the lowest estimate in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts. Ryanair stuck to its full-year forecast for a 17.5 percent rise in the year to the end of March. It warned, however, there was a "significant chance" profits would fall in its 2008/2009 business year.

"The European airline sector is presently facing one of these cyclical downturns, with possibility of a "perfect storm" of higher oil prices, poor consumer demand, weaker sterling and higher costs," the airline said in a statement. According to the most optimistic scenario, profit next year
could grow 6 percent to 500 million euros if average ticket prices, or yields, stay flat and oil prices drop to $75 a barrel. "But at our most conservative, if forward oil prices remain at $85, and consumer sentiment/sterling weakness leads to a 5 percent reduction in yields, then profits in the coming year
could fall by as much as 50 percent to as low as 235 million euros (excluding profits from aircraft disposals)," it said. The company also said it planned to spend up to 200 million euros buying back shares which, based on its current share price, would equate to 3 percent of Ryanair's share capital. Ryanair's stock has fallen 18 percent since the start of the year due to fears over the impact of rising energy costs and the company's limited fuel hedging for the year starting April 2008. "We remain essentially unhedged for next year," Ryanair said on Monday.

Actually we're in the downturn right now and this was expected:

On 26/06/07 we read:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...oing-soft.html

No need to fear for pilot jobs, China and India need at least 5000 new pilots each, Europe and USA around 4000 each, over the next 5 years.

Airbus and Boeing together registered over 2400 new orders in one year.
More than half of the orders were for expansion and not for replacement.
For every new airplane that is bought for expansion, you need at least 12 new pilots. 2400 x 50% x 12= 24400 new cockpit seats booked in one year!!

And we're not yet talking about the VLJ revolution and the bizjet boom....

The US is in recession and we will be there by the summer. Europe will tear itself apart economically as the Euro brushes up to 1.50 euro to the dollar. House prices have gone lower for 5 months in a row and the shareprices of the 4 biggest UK housebuilders are all down by more than 65%.

Interest rate cuts will be small and in many cases not passed on to borrowers. New credit is drying up fast and now the credit card companies are just terminating accounts with 35 days notice.

Without the credit there is no spending. Without the spending there is no economy.

The party is over. Those with £80k of debt, 200hrs and a lovely stack of CV's have my sympathy.


WWW

Moderator,

you don't have to buy everything the media tells you.

Politics are manipulating the media to lower the prices of houses, to make you live in fear etc,...

The airlines aren't buying this and what proves it best is that in January, Airbus and Boeing have booked strong orders again, more than the 2007 average monthly orders.

The problem is in the USA and nowhere else.
The airlines there are doing bad... but that's a political problem.
Since Bush came to power the US economy is in bad shape, with fuel prices rising 80%, the dollar dropping 70% over the Euro and the Japanese Yen.

MOL's "no fuel surcharge" policy was a pain in the ass for Ryanair (and MOL said it himself, "fuel costs lowered their profits") when the oil struck the 100$ barrier, while other carriers adapted by applying surcharges, which is why carriers like Swiss, Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and Brussels Airlines did very well in 2007.

There's no need to panic because Ryanair had worse results than expected, no. LCC's are typically the first ones to benefit from a passenger number increase in a recession...

I beg to differ, the problem does not solely lie with the US and the Dollar. It was not the US that told the European financial institutions to buy into hedge funds!, lets get real here, they wanted to make some quick money by doing as little as possible, had some of these institutions done their homework, they would have seen the downturn in the US housing market and increase in foreclosures almost 12 months ago and surely when Bush changed the bankruptcy regulations, did nobody ask why he did that?, hint, they were on the rise!
The root cause of most of this is nothing short of greed and some of the institutions have now got their fingers burnt.

I do my own research thanks. You will find that as we entered the last recession in 1990 both Airbus and Boeing had full order books and long waiting times. It means nothing.

There has never been a US recession without the UK following suit. Given the dire state of the public finances there is little scope for increasing government spending to take up the slack left by the consumer going on strike. If you run an economy based on credit then eventually a credit crunch is inevitable.

With average houses now at 9 times average earnings an unwinding of around 30% looks inevitable.

I hate to tell you that the airline business is hit hard and fast in any recession. In Ryanairs press release that goes with MOL's appearance in the media this morning they mention profits going lower still despite 'profits from aircraft disposals'. If RYR are contemplating shrinking their fleet then that it very big news indeed for the industry.


WWW

The economy is a world of offer and demand, between production and consumption.

Banks invested in area's where demand was increasing strongly till it reached a peak, resulting in short term gains as you say but long term losses.

Property values fall, which means buyers with less financial power will not easily get to buy a house but will more easily buy a car (car prices drop aswell), fuel, food and rent apartments for less money, which leaves more money for leisure and travel.

A downturn in the financials and real estate sector really don't harm the economy as much as the economists and media pretend.

MOL is not contemplating shrinking his fleet.
"One hears what he wants to hear".

Anyway a recession in Europe and USA is very welcome for my company ;-)

I wonder where the price of oil is going to figure in all of this. With recession in the US, will our governments be applying a pressure to get OPEC/oil companies to reduce prices to give the economy reprieve? Apparently Shell in Europe have just had their most profitable year ever. Would any reduction in fuel costs simply be irrelevant in the face of reduced disposable income?

If people do have to dispose of their overseas properties I imagine the knock on effects on the UK routes especially on the off season load factors will be quite serious.

Nichibei Aviation

On the other side it may be that people will spend less on everything irrespective of the reduced costs of consumer goods. In the UK it is very clear to me that fuel and in particular foodstuffs have increased considerably since January 2008. Whereas car prices seem to have been reduced because there are too many of them around. I think that many of us in the industry have been predicting downturn for the last few years and the longer it is in coming the worse it will be for many of us.

On another note I have seen a decline in GA / leisure flying for the last couple of years and it was particularly noticeable last summer. Is this reflected worldwide.

The problem with Shell's announcement of record profits last year (something in the region of $1.5million an hour:ooh:) is that they didn't announce the results of their oil reserve analysis at the same time. That has widely been taken as a sign that the results are not going to benefit the consumers.

In other words the results suggest Shell (and Exxon etc) are removing more oil from the ground than they are discovering elsewhere. Which means all the political lobbying in the world is going to have little impact on the price of a barrel. If their research suggests we are running low on known oil reserves, the price of oil simply cannot drop. More likely $85 a barrel will be a fond and distant memory.

So all this suggests Ryanair, one of the most profitable airlines in the world, are looking at anything up to a 50% reduction in profits. Ryanair losing 50% of it's profits?

Oh dear:uhoh:

Harsh, but looking increasingly accurate. Good luck to everyone, even those of us with airline jobs are going to need it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai.../cnjobs104.xml

More than 100,000 jobs will be slashed in the retail sector over the next two years as the economic slowdown beings to take its toll, writes James Hall.

Then you have Egg sending letters to 161,000 of its card holders informing them that they have 35 days until their card is revoked and how would they like to pay? Halifax is slashing their credit limits on loads of cards - a friend of mine saw his limit slashed from £7,000 to £500 last week.

Its goodbye easy credit which is what is going to result in lots of shops closing and from there we start the downward spiral already evidenced in house prices.

Interest rates won't make much difference if you can't get the credit in the first place. Or the Mrs loses her job in the shoe shop whilst you have a 98% LTV mortgage (on interest only) that's about to jump 30% as you leave your previously fixed rate.. :(

Holidays and short breaks you can live without - Tescos and a roof over your head you can't.


WWW

Nichiebi you are hysterical.... house price falls mean people will buy more cars... a recession is good for Ryanair.... a recession is good for my company (do you work for a debt consolidation company?). Ask however many pilots you know whether a recession was good for the industry in 01/02 or the early nineties....

You are right the press do tend to sensationalise news stories but equally sticking you head in the sand like a ostrich is the wrong approach as well. The recruitment industry will tighten very very quickly over the next 12 months and if you are just starting you training you do need to thing about where we are in the cycle.

So in summary... i take it those who are just starting out, or in my case in the process of sending my loan application off, basically needn't bother? Or am i incorrect...?

I'm assuming that a loss in profits for airlines is, in turn bad news for new, & current pilots? But then again, is this a long term forecast?

I personally have put an hold on my flight training for the next 12 months or so, this is definately not the time to start, hold on a little while see how it develops.

It all depends on who is funding your training, I am funding my own, so I dont want to spend all my money and have nothing at the end of it. Some others may be using the parents money and may not care whether they loose it all or not, others and the majority are probably taking large bank loans, these are the people that need to have a backup plan, as they will have to pay off the loan when their training is complete.

You need to time your training so you complete as the next upturn starts, hold of a while and see if you can estimate when it will be (probably 2010 - 2011), that is the time to start.

If I could predict the future I wouldn't be here typing this message. Its ALWAYS been a risk investing in flying training and there are always concerns that you've missed the boat, there is no boat or that the boat has sunk.

If you are 20 and you have no idea that there is a strong likelihood of a recession and you have no idea what a recession means for pilot recruitment THEN I would say you are underprepared. In the 1990 recession several major airline stopped trading. As a result there were hundreds of experienced jet pilots with no job, a pressing mortgage and willingness to take any flying job in any part of the world for any money.

You can imagine how this impacted the job chances of someone with 200hrs and no commercial experience..

Brutally the clock begins ticking the minute you complete training. Every month the school churn out another batch just like you. Except they are more current. You haven't flown for another month, and then another, and then another. You are getting rusty. Your IR will expire soon and renewing it will cost you thousands of pounds. The bank manager wants to know when you are going to start paying back the loan. The clock ticks louder. The school churn out more students all more current than you. You're now so rusty you stand little chance of passing a sim ride even if an airline offered you one.

Pop! Your time has passed.

Sure. The industry will recover. It may take a year it may take five. But can you wait for it? Can you service the debt and keep current? Because if not then you may just have wasted all your money.

THAT is the issue that should be gnawing away at you night and day. If it isn't then truly ignorance is bliss.

Good luck,

WWW

Nobody is saying don't do it at all.... you are a grown up and part of thats involves taking resposibility for your oown decisions. Personally I would think very carefully about securing a loan on your parents house with no back up plan.

All WWW et al are trying to do is provide a bit of balance because coming out of training into the jaws of a potential UK/US recession with £80-100k of debt to repay and no-one recruiting is certainly a possibility.... what probability you assign to it is up to you.... weigh up the information at hand and fact that into your decisions making process be it modular/integrated/continue working/go full time etc etc.

Without sounding all doom and gloom, I have to agree with WWW and the others who have been in this industry for a while now.

From past experience an economic downturn is very bad news for anyone hoping to work in aviation. Forget facts and figures, forget scare mongering, just research the effects of the last two recessions in the early nineties and post 9/11.

During these times it was practically impossible for a pilot with no experience to get a job. In fact even with experience it was difficult due to competition being fierce for every job. As WWW said "A roof over the head, or a holiday?" Sounds like a no brainer to me.

If I was starting out now and about to invest huge amounts of money, I'm not sure I would in the current climate. In saying that, the industry does go in cycles and when things are bad they have to improve at some point, so who knows what the next five years will bring.

i broadly agree with WWW, things don’t look good really, although he has more faith in the 'economic cycle' concept than i have. i hope it doesn’t turn out to be as bad as it might be, but i'm glad i was able to do the licences at relatively low cost, earn the money in advance and had a good career to go back to, which has mitigated any risk..


i wouldn't advise anyone to take on an £80K debt right now (and lets be honest - it was great when it worked, but there was a proportion of people for whom it didn’t, even in the good times). at present, the risk is far too great. also, for peolpe at school leaving age - i would say that its essential to have another string to your bow, so you don’t end up stacking shelves on the minimum wage paying your £80K off for the next 40 years, should you find you're not one of the lucky ones...

lets hope things look up before long!:ok:

We are all Doomed - not
 

Employment at record high

Interest rates no where near the 15% they were when Lamont was in charge
actually interest rates will fall again soon and are well managed

Growth still on target and in range 2 ish percent

Still a shorthage of houses in the UK, a legacy from Thatchers suspension of council house building

Share prices bounced back nicely and all those people who bought at the trough are quids in :p


British Airways has reported healthy profits for the last nine months of 2007, despite rising fuel costs and the consumer slowdown.

Pre-tax profits came in at £788m, up 34.9% from the same period of 2006.

Just wanted to comment on the 12.1m euro Net Profit on Disposal of 5 aircraft... Whilst it's difficult as I don't know what method and % depn RYR apply to their fixed assets, to make 2.42m euro profit on disposal per aircraft I would think they write off the bulk costs of their assets pretty quickly. With that in mind I wouldn't be worried about them. They do have to keep the NBV of their assets in check as overstating their balance sheet at year end can get them (and their accountants) into alot of trouble! The time to become concerned is when they start making massive losses on disposal which would point to them trying to artificailly sustain their share price for as long as possible by Overstating their assets and reducing the depn that gets put through the books so as to increase profit.

I know their are loads of other aspects to consider and we won't know the actual state of their accounts in detail until they are published in full in 2 years time. But...for the time being my point is DON'T worry about RYR, they ain't going anywhere and their finances indicate that. The disposal of assets doesn't neccisarily mean that they're in trouble and trust me, they will have enough retained profit to call up for some years to come before they run out of money!

Hope this serves to restore some confidence but only time will tell whats really going on. For me it's too late, the loan agreement is signed, levaing job in 5 weeks, security currently being organised and course booked with deposits paid. So....I'm hoping that things perk up but I'm not sticking my head in the sand over this, simply looking at what is going on now. My honest opinion is that threat on a recession coupled with RYR disposing of aircraft has frightened investors and shares have dropped as a result. If it is anything else more sinister then wish me luck for the ******* bumpy road ahead. :uhoh:

Cheers

CS

Accountant about to turn Student Pilot

Since when did a listed company have 2 years to publish audited accounts??

Bit off topic but....

They have to be submitted to Companies house ASAP after Year End. But, unless you actually apply to Companies House (for which there is a charge) or you own over 5% then you won't see the detailed accounts published anywhere for 2 years after Year End as far as I know.

Interest rates were at 15 % when Lamont was Treasurer because inflation was spiralling out of control.

The reason they are not at 15% now is because the current Government would have us believe that inflation is under control. They have done this by systematically removing everything that happens to push inflation up. House prices, ooops better remove that, Oil prices, ooops better remove that. True inflation is probably running at around 20 % due to increasing energy, oil, food and peaked house prices. Unfortunately Joe Public has proved to be rather stupid over the last few years and borrowed excessively due to the perceived boom and easy credit. Current result, shed loads of debt, increasing food, oil, energy prices and mortage interest rates much higher then a few years ago. The possible interest rate cuts over the next few months are unlikely to be passed onto Joe Public's mortgage. We haven't even mentioned all the carbon offsetting bollox and the environmentalists who are campaigning that flying is evil. I think we can expect a very heavy landing in 2008.

Bugger really as I start my CPL in July and am studying my ATPLs at the mo. Oh well, ****e happens, nothing ventured nothing gained. Doubt has been ripping me apart for months now and I have finally made my mind up. Despite the backdrop. Mad? Possibly, don't care anymore, sometimes you just have to go with the gut feeling and see where the dice land. Fortunately I have been saving for 3 years and can do it all and remain debt free. Worse case sceanario = Qualified and unemployed but debt free.

:)

It is off topic so I won't labour the point but I think you will find a listed company has to get an annual report out with 3-6 months or so, certainly not 2 years.... I know of no listed company that takes more than 3-4 months to get the annual report out.

More importantly Chris I think you missed the whole point with your post... no one was saying Ryanair was in trouble... or gives a stuff about their depreciation policy... the issue is the outlook.... an unhedged fuel position.... falling passenger yields etc etc... if costs go up and revenues come down airlines tighten their belts and put expansion plans on hold... period. As the biggest recruiter of low houred pilots I admire your optimism... it will hold you in good stead if their are tough times ahead in 12-18 months when you come out of training.

MFWF - Good post!

Unfortunately for me whilst I haven't actually started training and won't do so for another 6 weeks, I am too far down the road with the bank to actually stop anything and to be honest I don't know that I would even if I could!

My gut feeling still says go for it. There's never a right time to spend this sort of money and they'll always be something thats happening in the financial world to worry me.

Like MFWF says, are we bloody mad? Possibly but nothing ventured nothing gained so crack on is my approach.

CS :ok:

Flying is cheaper than it has ever been.
There is an increase in emmigration from eastern european countries
Everyone still needs to travel.

Everything is going to be ok folks! Relax

Exactly. If Ryanair are looking at such a sharp downturn in profit over the next 1-2 years then imagine the impact on smaller airlines who don't have RYR's low cost base and cash reserves. Ryanair will most likely survive the worst of recessions, others may well not. It all points to experienced and jet/TP rated pilots "competing" with 200hr guys for the few airlines positions that would be on offer. It's only a possibility, but it is looking more and more likely.

I take the above point regarding people not caring about RYR's depn policy. You're right they don't. But investors do and I think you'll find they're the ones that drive the economy up or down and indeed the reason we are even having this discussion so that's why I brought it up. Look forget about depn for a minute, my intention was to convey that selling 5 aircraft doesn't mean that RYR are worried about the future as has been mentioned on PPRUNE earlier and has subsequently spilled over into this thread aswell.

We all have our opinions about what's going on but I don't think it's as bad as made out to be by some. You only have to watch the news and you would think the end of the world is coming! The economy bounces back, always has and always will. ******* yanks have knackered us in the end but the rediculous ex Chancellor has screwed us for a long time to come with spirraling debt, tax and interest rates. Not the place for politics but thank you very much to the current government for the situation that we are now in. Im sure that will annoy someone and but thats my opinion and I'll be shot down in the next 30 mins or so but hey ho.

CS :ok:

Many of you seem to associate the post-9/11 aviation crisis to the 9/11 recession while they don't have alot in common.

The post 9/11 aviation crisis was based on fear for further attacks, which led people to cancel their flights for security's sake.

Just because the media and the economists are talking about a recession, thatdoesn't mean we're going to start paying a bottle of water at 5 bucks a piece.
Typical panic reactions are:

:ugh:

We are at the edge of recessions and we're at the edge of the greatest pilot shortage in history.
Isn't this what we call a buffet boundary limit? ;-)

Just because Ryanair announces a lower than expected Q3 profit figure of a mere 35 million euro, people start putting their flight training on hold :ugh:...

In this recession, prices of everything will drop including those of fuel.
Some members on this forum have good reasons to make people believe that it will be hard to find a cockpit job in the future: such reasons could be to reduce competition for their own "hirability".

Now let me tell you one thing wannabe economists: In Holland they held a competition between dolphins and the best economy analysts of the country on 2007 investment prognoses.
Guess what: the dolphins' prognose would have earned investors 30% gains while the economic analysts' prognoses resulted in 10% losses.

http://www.nieuws.nl/492464

So don't let the media or analysts tell you what's going to happen.
Do some research on your own.

Are house prices really dropping?
Or are you believing that they are dropping?
Is a bottle of milk more expensive now?
Do take indexation into account ;-)

What if the media says that tomorrow the earth will disappear? Are you going to buy that?

Howe many times has it been said on this forum......
There is only a shortage of experienced pilots!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and if things keep going the way that the general opinion of this thread says it will, there will be plenty of them around.

It's all Dutch to me Guvnor.


On a more serious note. Wannabe Economist = Possible Realist.

Eyes wide open. It's better that way, or are you a strictly lights off kind of person? :}

Yes.
There is a big shortage of experienced pilots.
Do you know why?
The industry is expanding faster than the airlines can train F/O's with enough experience to become captains. Training a captain is not like training a new F/O, it takes more time and resources.

and YES, there is a shortage of new pilots as well. The only problem is that new pilots are misinformed and mislead by their FTO's and think they can get a job the day they graduate with 200 hours. That may very well be so in desperate environments like India and China right now, but is not the case in Europe and USA.
Don't dream, with 200 hours (130 single prop + 70 sim) you have to be really lucky and the airline really desperate to give you a job.
The average time required for ab-initio is 500 hours in Europe.
That's why many don't even get replies to their job applications and start thinking it's the industry... :rolleyes:

It's not like your FTO where you are about to contract a 90 000€ loan over 12 years is going to tell you that you'll need to spend more money flying an additional 300 hours on average after your training to be elligible for a F/O position.

(Side note: What do you think an FTO with a USA flying program charging 90 000€ is earning on every student?
10%? 20%?
No, I can assure you it's more than 50%, just do the math yourself and you will realise.
You say that the quality of the training is good? I hope it is, for the price you pay... It's not by luck that they get to add a 10 million dollar simulator every year....)


As I mentionned on the other page, over the next 5 years there is a need for 5000 new pilots in each of India and China already and similar but slightly lower numbers are expected for Europe, Middle East and USA, this, without taking account of the VLJ revolution.

All what matters is to have a captain and an F/O in a cockpit.
There are plenty of 3000+ hours on type experienced F/O's in the world waiting for a captain upgrade, and almost as many new pilots looking for their first job.

Do you own a flying school?

Edit: I think you do...
http://ncb-aviation.com/

Quel surprise....

Not often that I agree with Nichibie but I do think that he has a point.

What I do see happening is airline bosses stopping recruting as a panic reaction only to find themselfs with an even bigger pilot shortage and after a short time panic recruting taking place.

No doubt Nichibie's thinking is influenced by his flying school ownership however the requirment for pilots will continue to grow and he makes this point well.

Nichibei,

Hmmmmmmmm! I really admire your optimism and wouldn't it be nice for the newbies if what you're saying is true?

But, you're effectively saying and I agree that the FTO's just want to take a newbie's money and not inform them about the reality of the situation as well as making a huge profit into the bargain.

But if the website that was flagged up here as a training establishment is indeed your company, then I for one would have to say that your words are bordering on being extremely hypocritical. There are in my opinion too many FTO's (possibly like your self) who are fuelling this pilot shortage rumour for their own gain. Pulling the unsuspecting wannabe in, taking their holy grail pot of money and chucking them out the other end into a non existent market for a 200hr FATPL.

Not a nice way to do business I'm afraid.:=

Well the company's not mine so I don't really have personal interests, and I could have signed up as "student" to hide the fact that I'm a NCB employee, but I didn't.

If you don't believe me all you need to do is google "pilot shortage" and you'll realise what's happening. Sources range from the less reliable to the most reliable.

But there's a way to prove what I'm telling you:
In December the Portuguese senate wanted to vote the 65 retirement age extension, pilots went on strike.
In January the US senate voted about the same thing.

All I'm saying is that too many students are not realistic and let themselves get caught by the "big dream". What they forget to do is to analyse before they start and complain afterwards.
I highly criticise FTO's who do not inform their students appropriately.
But I also do criticise irresponsible students who blaim it to the market instead of admitting their mistakes and blaming their FTO.
How many students have had the courage to send a letter to their FTO telling them that they can't find a job?

There's a market of around 3000 to 4000 pilots over the next 5 years in Europe, but unfortunately only 10 to 20% of that market will be open to 200 hours pilots.
If I were an airline I wouldn't put a 200 hour + TR + line training pilot on the right seat of a 50 million $ 737. It's not only about the airplane but about the entire airline's reputation.

Nichibel,

Well done for clearing that up.

All good facts and finally the point you are trying to make is getting across. For Wannabee's, the best advice I think is to not get to wrapped up in the dream and to review everything, research everything and ask as many people in the know as is humanly possibly. Then if you're still really passionate about it Go For It!

Its a great career, I love going to work and still after a few years as a jet pilot, I still have to pinch myself. The bottom line is....
Follow your dream but be realistic Good Luck:ok:

India and china and all the rest will see lots of new pilot jobs I agree. That is of no use to most wannabes here. What we see today in new data is London house prices down 6.4% quarter on quarter and sales volumes down over a third - crash territory. The USA is IN recession.

You have MOL on TV telling you in plain language that he expects recession in 08/09. By this time next year it is going to be really horrid being a wannabe.

Sorry to say.

WWW

I'm not so sure.

It's in the nature of people to be ego-centric and to have short term memories and outlooks. Hence you get anecdotal evidence of global warming.

ie. -15 years ago it snowed in winter, now it doesn't.
- It's caused by chelsea tractors and set-top boxes

Meaningful measures of climate cover geological eras, yet we persist in extraoplating from minute, human-scale time periods.

Same with economics. We tend to think in the immediate and emphasise what's important to us. So a bit of talk and data produce the same sort of screaming reaction for which journalists are traduced when they write "jet seconds from disaster". Of course it depends on what you consider a recession to be - but given the rather bleak scenarios I've read in this thread, let's assume it's fairly nasty rather than a slowdown or a slight dip - to extrapolate a big recession from any of the data in this thread is as valid as making climate observations based on 15 years of watching the weather.

Recessions are not permanent. A slowing of growth (imho) is inevitable - perhaps underway right now - but recovery and improvement is also inevitable. Do you train to be a pilot now or when you have the recovery? I buy stock when it's low and sell high, so with training the goal is to position yourself for when you qualify.

So if MOL's prediction of a downturn in 08/09 is correct then starting your training late this year is the perfect time?! :hmm: