But like all industries there is a constant turnover of staff, whether it be retirement, illness or just plain pissed off with their job, and so there will be a need to attract new, keen, un-bloodied guns to take up the mantle.

Funny. I seem to remember Sabena and Swiss going bust and Virgin and MyTravel announcing big redundancies just a few years ago and then there were NO jobs for Wannabes overnight. Indeed nobody resigned from any airline because they were pissed off with the job. They were too worried about their mortgage for such indulgence.

Just one small UK airline like xxxxxxx or xxxxxxxx going under would make enough experienced pilots redundant to replace every retiring and medically unfit pilots for years to come.

Meanwhile Joey Wannabe has a very expensive IR slowly expiring, a big loan and a job offer from Burger King.


And its ME that will have to sit here on this forum next year reading the endless wailing of despair from Wannabes bemoaning the lack of jobs, the debt misery and the endless agony of their lives post basic training!

;)


I do sincerely hope that things turn out better than I expect them to. But remember: British households are not just more indebted than their counterparts in America, but more than in any other western European or G7 economy. To make things worse all this debt is backed nearly entirely by house prices. A note by ABN AMRO, the investment bank, said — I quote for its full gore — ‘The UK looks more vulnerable to a housing correction than the US. The degree of overvaluation looks more acute, nearing 50 per cent in the UK compared with 25 per cent in the US.’


We live in a credit fueled country and are at the start of a huge credit crunch.. protect yourself and your family.


WWW

I do sincerely hope that things turn out better than I expect them to.
So do I!!

You really ought to be an economics adviser! I am a honours graduate of economics and most of what you said went over my head, but what I did understand was major depressing.

The discovery of a planet sized asteroid on a direct impact course would have a more cheering effect, me thinks.

WWW
 

I find it very sad that you have become so disillutioned with flying, to call flying being a "taxi driver" ( have you got a job with BA?) is showing how low you must have sunk.

I know that a lot of pilots sit around all day on autopilot and bitch about things but you realy take the biscuit, you have made your dream happen and now all you seem to be doing is pulling up the drawbridge after you.

I do think that we are going to have a tough time over the next year or two but that is no reason to not be at the forefront of the next upturn in the market.

I should take time to think how lucky you are with a flying job............ if you want proof then spend a seven day shift inside a Boeing 707 fuel tank with a rivet gun........ I know I have done both!

I'm not disillusioned. I love my job, my company and my base. Life could hardly be more chipper in the Welshmans household to be honest. I find my job rewarding, fun and well paid. Its better than I ever dared dream as a Wannabe.

I fail to see how I'm drawing any drawbridges up.

My concerns are somewhat more prosaic and paternalistic. Lets say a Wannabe is weighing the £80k Integrated option against the £50k Modular. Lets say he reads my words of caution and does a bit of research and decides to go Modular. Lets say there is a deep recession. The £30k he didn't borrow may well be the difference between bankruptcy and being able to manage.

Make your case against my cautionary argument of impending recession. I won't stop you. I can make my case all day long. Just leave out the aggression. I'm not causing this crisis. You may easily assert that we should mark your word that its going to be a mild downturn and there will then be a boom. What about providing a bit of meat on those bones? Do you see the de-coupling of the BRIC nations economies from the US providing an engine to the global economy during the current US and EU recessions? Are you hopeful that central bankers have better information and tools this time and will manage the downturn better than nearly 20 years ago?

Come on. I'm genuinely interested. I know you are a 28 yr old Air Traffic Controller who has booked an Integrated course at Oxfords price leading school of aviation and as such have a certain hysterical dislike of my talk of economic doom. I know you repeatedly call me a pub bore as a result. You don't like my views because they run counter to the decisions you have made. You have CRM issues already! ;)

Are we just lobbing bullets in the messengers direction?


WWW

Because I am sitting here in front of a computer screen making fortunes in the City as you speak. Today I'm long on the FTSE and Sterling and doing nicely thanks.

You?

WWW

He's quite possibly busy trying to sort out his loan for OAA.

Have to jump in here. Cannot resist.

I'm not overly impressed at WWW's rantings...but he is right to highlight the risk, based on possible experience of the industry, to persons about to risk their homes on training.

However, question for WWW: I am working in the City (right now in the FX markets - having my sandwich and checking in on pprune) I would be very interested to learn how exactly you are making such a fortune from day-trading. To stand even the remotest chace of making a living you need to have a) very expensive real time feeds, b) be live on the markets every second the markets are open PLUS offline research time, and c) have very considerable knowledege of the markets. That goes for spot, equity, derivs any form of trading.

Or have you written an algorithmic exectution system which sits there printing money whilst you cruise the blue skies? If you have, lets have a look, we'll buy it off you, and you can buy the airline you work for; recruiting all those poor wannabess your clearly care for so much?? If you fancy buying BA, you could probably get a good price right now too.

:ok:

This is not only a problem in a recession but effectively a problem in day to day life for any new pilot looking for a job.
Leaving aside the wealthy, the average student pilot is putting his financials at high risk by going integrated.

Still, recession is not the only risk out there.
If Osama decides to have 100 planes blown mid-air at the same time tomorrow, commercial aviation is history.
If a student is involved in a car accident and gets injuries that won't allow him to hold a class 1 medical, his career is history.

But fear shouldn't be the way to convince a students to go modular or integrated because you'll discourage everyone including those people who are already in such courses or have graduated and are looking for their first job.

I'm not saying that anything will or will not happen, but I remember just before Air Europe folded (many moons and buffalo ago) that you couldn't get on a flying course at any of the major schools for at least 4 years. Afterwards, of course it all vanished overnight. I think there were just 2 jobs in Flight that week, so it can happen.

However, it is true that we are now a service-based economy with not much in the way of heavy industry (or gold) to back it up and it is very fragile indeed. That's partly why there are wars, to keep the money circulating.

If you have a dream, carry on with it - what else are you going to do? The problem with this industry is that you have to think at least a year ahead, and all you have is your gut instinct.

Good luck whatever you do

Phil

WWW, I'm not even to going to pretend I'm as 'clued-up' on the markets as yourself. However, as you have whittled on about not shooting the messenger when people have responded to your 'concerns' for the market, I feel I have to say your response to Plastic787 is nothing short of immature and pathetic in my opinion. If the comment was deleted why do you feel in digging it back up and reprinting his response?

Whilst your prophecy of doom may ultimately be correct can you please step down of your high horse and consider for a second that not everyone will be unemployed and homeless in a year facing the financial nadir you predict.

XX621 - not really making a fortune. My IGIndex account shows a modest yearly positive balance from various positions. The one thing I DON'T touch is Forex - I've been burnt too many times and finally learned my lesson there plus the smartest guy I know is a Forex trader and his stories give me sleepless nights.

But being a keen amateur economist and dabbling in markets I probably have an awareness that is better than most Wannabes about trends and prospects. I don't see many other commercial pilots with an interest in economics making postings on Wannabes about their career prospects. More would be welcome but then everyone just ****'s off from this forum the minute they get a job ;) !


Plastic 787 - lets kiss and make up - I've deleted the comments that were posted and deleted then reinstated, fair enough?

WWW

WWW, I'm not even to going to pretend I'm as 'clued-up' on the markets as yourself. However, as you have whittled on about not shooting the messenger when people have responded to your 'concerns' for the market

Ummm, point me to the posts that address in more than 5 words my concerns about the global economy, the credit crunch, the house price crash and the prospect of airline business collapses such as is not occurring at Alitalia? Most comments here are playing the man - not the ball.


Whilst your prophecy of doom may ultimately be correct can you please step down of your high horse and consider for a second that not everyone will be unemployed and homeless in a year facing the financial nadir you predict.

Of course your phrases such as prophecy of doom and and being homeless are chosen to deride my view that a major recession akin to 1991 is likely. You wish to portray such views as outlandish nonsense. Very well. This is why I have posted link after link after link to such mainstream sharers of this view as the Telegraph and Times and Economist and the IMF and others.

I have never said all airlines will go bust and everyone will lose their homes. Some airlines have gone bust, are going bust or will go bust and the 27,000 people who lost their homes last year will be joined by at least 45,000 other this year. This is reality and you either talk about it rationally, stick your head in the sand or shoot the messenger.

None of which will change the fact that recession certainly is happening in the US, certainly will happen in the UK and certainly will result in the job market for Wannabes contracting.

Which is the point of this discussion, unwelcome though that fact may be.

WWW

That's absolutely fine. Being a Wannabe is highly stressful and being able to share and express that here is part of the service we aim to provide.

My advice would be not to borrow such a large sum and to go Modular and keep the day job - you're not exactly old and there's really no need to rush given the current outlook... You think you're miserable now not having a pilots license - just wait until you've got one but no job!

WWW

WWW: You are very wise to keep out of forex! Most human forex traders are beginning to realise same!

I've started the ATPL g/s but don't give a stuff whether I get a job or not, but I am very fortunate in that I have a job which can finance it without too much discomfort. All I focus on is the fact I want a CPL and an IR as it feels like the next challenge.

I personally do worry when I hear the early 20somethings go on about landing an airline job as if it's the only thing worthwhile doing in their lives / the only think they want to live for. On that basis, I do think the forum needs a Simon Cowell to keep the tearful contestents, and their families, from too much grief.

I, personally, would doubt the downturn will be THAT bad. But, what do I know? ;)

WWW, at no point have I suggested the threat of recession is 'outlandish nonsense.' The possibility of a recession is, unfortunately very real. However, I have just conducted a very brief search in google regarding the possibilty of a recession. Whilst there are the articles supporting your point of view, there are also posts concerning a much more optimistic outlook.

Whatever happens it will be interesting to see how it develops.

There is guaranteed to be a recession and a big one at that, the imaginary money that the UK has been living off for years is going to become exactly what it is- imaginary. The real question is just how low will the economy sink- and if the rest of the world will get dragged down by it. Although I haven't started any training yet, I have no intentions of doing so until I have gone through uni, and have a chance to see what the world is like after a few years- I can assure you it will be different.

Come on chaps – I don’t see any need to attack each others personal character. This is a forum which encourages lively and informative debate. I think we should be advised to remember, each post is merely an opinion, held by the individual choosing to post. If one does not agree with this view point, then it is their right to counter this opinion, whilst arguing their grounds for doing so. We should all try to refrain from attacking users merely as a result of not agreeing with an opinion.

There have been several key points addressed in this thread so far. Nevertheless, for what it is worth, in my ‘humble' opinion WWW has kindly forewarned of a threatening storm on the horizon. For this reason, it is left to each individual to rationalise what is being warned and duly decide whether or not they choose to prepare and arrange the necessary precautions in order to limit the potential impact. As I am at the early stages of ATPLs, I am only too aware of expected costs. I therefore deem it prudent to listen to various predictions and opinion, and rationalise each appropriately – Can you imagine budgeting £70.000 but as a result of a down turn, you are required to pay a further £40.000 which could have been avoided through careful planning – Just my humble opinion, ‘Don’t shoot the messenger’!!!!

I concede that my view is merely that. I invite those holding contrary views to state them. This will help Wannabes come to their own views and thus make their own, informed, decisions.

Personally I believe the house price crash alone is enough to see the failure of at least one UK airline. The credit crunch and the recession are just added extras.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/44840/...the-1990s.html

Why this housing crash could be worse than the 1990s

The credit crunch is set to get even worse.

In a week where we’ve seen some lenders pull out of the mortgage market altogether – if temporarily – and others raise interest rates substantially in the hope of putting off customers, many borrowers may be wondering how much worse it could get.

But according to the Bank of England’s latest quarterly Credit Conditions survey, over the next three months lenders expect to cut lending further, raise charges, and be more demanding on terms, such as hiking deposit levels, for example.

So it’s little wonder that the IMF reckons Britain is one of the countries most vulnerable to a property crash…

Along with France and the Netherlands, the IMF believes Britain has one of the world’s most precarious property markets. It calculates that at least 30% of the value of homes cannot be explained by fundamentals such as demand or rising incomes, reports The Times.

Of course, this has been obvious to anyone with any sense and has been for a long time. High house prices aren’t about supply and demand, or rising incomes – they’ve been all about availability of credit for years now. And that’s vanishing rapidly, even for wealthy buyers. C&G now demands a £200,000 deposit if you want to borrow £1m, double what it was at the start of this week. So much for the unassailable London market.



My view is closely mirrored in the article above.


WWW

I note on the news right this second that the UK's largest mortgage provider the Halifax has just announced (as of Monday) a hike in its interest rates.

For those borrowers who can only afford to put a deposit of between 10-24.9 per cent, HBOS will charge them 0.14 per cent more.

So basically a Higher Lending Charge for LTV's above 75%. There goes the second holiday or weekend break plans...


WWW

Not if you're travelling with Ryan or Easy!

If for argument sake we are heavily affected by the recession, and it certainly looks plausible – what is the consensus of opinion regarding time frame.

My estimations would be 3 years at worst ,and 1 year at best. Although, I am no economist. :{:{

I bet that until fuel prices drop we will get deeper in. Finance rules most of the world after oil. We have no chance of escaping just look at the tax situation as well. The gravy train is still running but people and institutions are leaping aside to try and cover their backsides. When the current round of mortgage applications is sorted we will not all be worse off but with the oil prices everything is affected whether we like it or not. With low inflation and still some growth it is technically only a slow down but that can be bad enough. 3 US airlines failed in recent weeks, plus Alitalia perhaps BA? Virgin merger what next? Take out a £60k loan to fly? NO not likely!!!

Recession ?
 

IMHO, the recession could be 18-24 months at best. At worst try 36months. Any Irish (fellow) wannabee's should be aware that the ESRI released figures this morning to 'confirm' that we are now in a full blown recession..

Celtic Tiger = Celtic Kitty :{

Who will the Russians have as their V.B.F.'s on the slopes from now on in :sad:.........................................

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0404/economy.html

Sensationalism Copy and Paste Press Alert...!!!!

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3662046.ece

Even those successful LCC's could be hit too! Our boss, seems to think it's the stag parties in Amsterdam, those weekends in Nice and Venice that will go first...and that's LCC market territory...

Doom...Gloom...No one is safe...Doom...Gloom...:ok:;):p

And now even Legacy Carriers...
 

Sort of Thread Creep but related to the UK economy and aviation industry:
A Thread starting in R&N with regards to a potential merger between Virgin and BMI...

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/02042008/323...rove-deal.html

Even these sort of carriers feel the need to consolidate...markets such as UK/European scheduled and Long Haul...

As a UK pilot community the choice of employment is reducing year by year...significant for aspiring regional pilots and Wannabes...

Timing could be quite literally everything, once the dust settles on TCX/MYT and FCA/TOM mergers in terms of fleet capacity/buisness stratergy in approx 2 to 3 years time, the next cue ball arrives...

Doom...Gloom...Where Will It End...Doom...Gloom...

I've gotta stop drinking at lunchtime!

What on earth makes you think BA will fail!? Do people really think the terminal 5 fiasco will hit them that hard? I for one very much doubt it will. Maybe for the next month or so it may creep into people's minds but after that people won't even remember. There are many more airlines closer to the wall then BA.

No I do not think it will fail in reality but what other sort of company given the monopoly it had for so long could continue given its recent history? Even if only some of the things discussed on here had a grain of truth then they would be ripe for failure, takover or some other way made to change their ways. Not that any other company may be any better - the airline business is a low margin high risk entreprise constantly being undercut. Only above average service and quality will keep it where it has come to be accustomed to reside. T5 will recover of course but if people voted with their brains and feet would they continue to pay for a substandard service that has been a foreseeable situation and not properly dealt with. Big bang changeovers are the highest risk are they not?

US recession confirmed - here comes the job losses:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...nnonfarm10.xml

US job losses put recession in focus


The number of Americans losing their jobs hit a five-year high last month in a further sign that the US economy is firmly in recession mode.

New data from the US Labor Department shows 80,000 people lost their jobs in March - the third straight monthly drop and the biggest decline in five years.

The so-called "non-farm payroll" data would have been worse - a loss of around 100,000 - had it not been for a rise in government jobs.

In addition, jobs figures for both January and February were revised downwards, recalculated to a total of 152,000 losses from a previous estimate of 85,000.


US job losses just keep on coming and keep on being revised upwards. I strongly suspect this month will be revised up as well in the future.

People miss-remember the last recession. They attribute the house price crash as being a result of people losing their jobs with high interest rates. In fact it was the crash in house prices that caused the recession and high debt repayments were as a result of broader economic policy. Just as it will be this time.

If you want to see the future then just watch the USA. Whatever happens there will happen here. But as our house prices to disposable income is more highly stretched than here and as the Financial sector is an even bigger part of the economy over here it will be worse here than the States.

And that's pretty bad.

It is doom and gloom. It is real. It does affect Wannabes. I make no apologies for talking about it and will continue to do so.

Now go and enjoy this lovely sunny Friday afternoon - I am. :)


WWW

The last housing crash, and iam old enough to remember also had a lot to with the removal of joint income tax relief, which suddenly made mortgages a lot less affordable..

Throw into the mix the fiasco with the Exchange Rate mechanism, and you have a few extra factors to contend with.. such as interest rates at 15%....

Just a thought.

That you fail to see the relationship between house prices, the economy and the airline industries recruitment requirements is a perfect illustration as to the ignorance of many Wannabes. All are strongly linked.

A recession is now happening in the USA. One is booked to arrive here in 2008. Make your training and funding plans accordingly. Thats all you can do.

Cheers

WWW

hey WWW an interesting thread on Airliners.net that illustrates how right you are: Will WN enter bankruptcy?

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/3917663/

To become or not to become a pilot, that is the question.

Sorry but I'm fed up. I expected a warmer information exchange on this website, in reality it seems that it's not worth it.
Moderators telling prospective students that the apocalypse is nearing, students disrespecting me while I try to help them.

To those who are joining us this summer: see you there :ok:

You want a warm exchange of information? Well here it is and its red hot. Did you want a back slapping sympathy club? If you are here to discuss aviation then that's lovely but a big element of aviation is money - because that and that alone make aeroplanes fly - and money comes soley from the economy and the economy here in the UK and there in portugal is in deep deep trouble (but not as deep as Spain).

Trillions of dollar losses are evidenced here. Despite the ECB literally pouring money onto their heads the Euribor rate is at high not seen since Christmas. There is only one reason for this mass banking panic - they KNOW that they are bust and that things will only get worse..

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssF......03?rpc=401&

The US banks are INCREASING their desperate borrowing from the Fed. They are deep in a dark hole and digging like crazy.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/508fcb8e-0...nclick_check=1


House prices are opinion. The debt is real.


WWW

Received this morning in my inbox, not once received anything like this. (I subscribe to Aviation Job Search to see who is and who isnt)

Storm Aviation Limited

A320 TYPE RATING COURSE STARTS 14TH APRIL 2008,ONE PLACE LEFT, REDUCED PRICE! placed on: 04/04/2008
LONDON

Details:

Storm Aviation has just one place left on our A320 Type rating course starting the 14th April in London.

This is a unique opportunity for any pilots looking to gain an A320 type rating and further their aviation career.

Due to last minute availability of this space we are pleased to offer this course at a vastly reduced price- Please enquire further for details.

You would just be delighted if you had paid full price for said course wouldnt you.

Quite telling in my eyes....:hmm:

That's a very interesting anecdotal G-SPOT. For some months now I have been anticipating 'offers' from FTO's and price adjustments as the number flowing through the doors drops in response to the withdrawal of loans and the inability to MEW (Mortgage Equity Release - eating your house).

Up to today I have seen nothing much. This could be the start of it.

Good news for Wannabes - cheaper training.

Hurrah.


WWW

The last housing crash, and iam old enough to remember also had a lot to with the removal of joint income tax relief, which suddenly made mortgages a lot less affordable..

Throw into the mix the fiasco with the Exchange Rate mechanism, and you have a few extra factors to contend with.. such as interest rates at 15%....

Just a thought.

RB11 - The removal of the married allowance on housing costs was announced 3 months before it came into effect. During those 3 months it did spurn an increase in the number of properties offered for sale to the market. The day the tax change came into effect was the day any such downward pressure on prices was removed. They went on to crash for 3 years by around 40% in real terms.

This time the Vested Interests in the property market will probably portray HIPS as being responsible for the current crash. Which will be nonsense. Its just prices are too high. Just like last time. Really quite simple.

WWW

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7330311.stm

Nuclear Fusion (Nuclear Reactors as interim solution) = Unlimted Hydrogen = Unlimted Fuel = Cheap Flying!!

:ok:

Chris

WWW,

I'm probably wrong on this and feel free to correct me if I am, but I would have thought that the increased cost of fuel would have a negative effect on the cost of training which would mean that the training providers would be unable to lower their training costs, regardless of the impact of availability of loans?

Yahweh

The larger schools have probably hedged their fuel, but even if they haven't I doubt that any subsequent increase is going to give wannabees a reality check.

If somebody is prepared to gamble 70k then another 20k for a 737 rating, then I doubt 10p per litre is going to make any difference.

I know I really ought to have got over sifting through the :mad: in marketing by now, but how on earth can Storm Aviation keep a straight face and describe their SSTR as a "unique opportunity" :confused:

Sorry to go off topic.

Housing Market
 

I know im not just the only one on this forum who is worried about the current housing market situation. I thought i'd bring this thread up and running as the housing market does affect alot of us embarking on our goal in becoming an airline pilot. Its not as though everyone has rich parents who can folk the lot out in cash and therefore, you'll find many of us invest in the property market.

I was wondering whether anyone would agree with me that its getting harder and harder building equity for securing loans for training?

Bairing that in mind, would anyone agree that in the very near future, the major top flying schools would need to lower the costs of their training courses in order to make them more financially realistic?

any opinions appreciated.

Hayder.