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-   -   Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us.... (https://www.pprune.org/professional-pilot-training-includes-ground-studies/311832-growing-evidence-downturn-upon-us.html)

MarcoFF 8th Feb 2008 20:10

Great guys, interesting thread.:D

Recession is a very good time to invest.

apachelongbow 2nd Apr 2008 11:41

What about the 100sands of Indian wannabe pilots rushing to US, Malayasia, Phillipines and where ever? Most of these folks are 18-20 yr old, not completed their basic education yet. If they now finish their course and come back say in late 2008 early 2009, get a CPL with 200 hrs, and the recession is in full swing.

For theory's sake lets assume the world comes out of this recession by say 2009 mid-early 2010. Then if aviation jobs increase, the world already has about 7000 almost fresh CPL holders, each holding 200 + hours. So where are the jobs for those who want to now 'invest' during the recession?

For the information of all. Currently (as of March 08) there are about 7000 Indian wannabe pilots studying in various schools across the world. Before the recession hits us all, may be 3000 more such folks would have started their studies. If we say 50% of these do get their CPL licences at all, we are still seeing about 5000 new pilots waiting for jobs in 2009-2010

Persephone 2nd Apr 2008 12:38

To FTO or not to FTO
 
So in essense you guys feel that the supply is far greater than the demand for F/O's right now fresh from an FTO?

:sad:

Even fresh from an FTO with min hours surely there are other options rather than trying to get into an airline? i.e. flight instructor?

Gbird 2nd Apr 2008 12:45

Erm..
 
I was under the impression from the plethora of other links on PPrune that this was perhaps one of the better times to be entering the industry for a newbie.

Expaning airlines, global pilot shortages etc. Its all i've read and heard about for the last 12 months.

Perhaps the state of the economy is a material consideration here in the UK and the States, but possibly not such an issue in countries such as Australia, Asia etc.....

Grass strip basher 2nd Apr 2008 13:00

Yeah but do you qualify from a residency basis for the jobs in Asia/Australia??

Gbird 2nd Apr 2008 13:45


Yeah but do you qualify from a residency basis for the jobs in Asia/Australia??
Personally yes... luckily I have a dual passport and am also conscious of how fortunate I am because of this.

However I was mentioning it simply to say that the state of play globally isn't all immediate doom and gloom, and if people have the opporuntity to study and work o'seas then maybe its a good option if it looks like the UK and the US have tough times ahead.

SV3NN0 3rd Apr 2008 07:10

Australasia
 
I'm training in New Zealand and the guys qualifying ahead of me as C-cat instructors are getting jobs immediately at the school as the more experienced instructors are being snapped up by airlines or going to Australia. Things are looking good really but I'm still glad my student loan is interest free!

Wee Weasley Welshman 3rd Apr 2008 14:50

Earth to Wannabes - come in Wannabes...


I don't quite know where to start with just this afternoons crop of misery. Lets try this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnitaly103.xml

Alitalia on brink of bankruptcy as Air France-KLM talks collapse

Do you have ANY idea of how many highly experienced pilots this airline could potentially release onto the open market in the coming weeks?!



Or

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7328191.stm

BAE confirms it will cut 600 jobs. Defence company BAE has confirmed it will cut almost 600 jobs at its Brough site, near Hull and its Woodford plant near Manchester.

Watch out - there's unemployment about..


Or


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3673935.ece


Bank of England warns mortgage famine to worsen

Hell's Teeth - there goes the housing market..


Or


http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/03/news...ptcy/index.htm

ATA Airlines files for bankruptcy.The airline, founded in 1973, served major business centers - including Chicago, Dallas and Oakland - and popular vacation spots throughout the United States, including Hawaii, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. The airline also operated as a leading carrier for the U.S. military.

It operated 29 aircraft, including Boeing 737-800s, Boeing 757-200s, Boeing 757-300s, DC10s and Lockheed L-1011s.

At the time of its shutdown, ATA employed approximately 2,230 people, including approximately 600 pilots



So. We have housing market meltdown, airline starting to go bust in the US and the EU and job losses starting to emerge in the UK.

THIS IS NOT A MINOR SLOWDOWN. There is a financial hurricane on the weather radar for all airlines and EU and US ones in particular. Not all are going to be flying once it has passed. It will be deeply unpleasant for Wannabes.

You have been warned.


WWW

HappyFran 3rd Apr 2008 14:57

Thanks for that WWW.

Just what I need in week before first block of ATPL theory exams :{:{:{

Are you sure you are not Scots....sure remind me of a Scots bloke that was in Dad's Army :):O:)

Wee Weasley Welshman 3rd Apr 2008 17:15

Don't get me wrong. Like a great many people I have benefited from the economic growth and house price inflation of the last ten years. I know that nobody knows for certain the near future in the world of economics. I have a bullish attitude to life and money. Though this year I am a big grisly bear.

Its 18 years on in the cycle from the last recession. One is due. There is a phoney war at present. Although the sound of gunfire in the form of two thirds of mortgage products being withdrawn since August is just audible to most.

Belts are tightening, costs are rising, taxes are increasing, credit is tightening, houses are falling and airlines WILL be hit. Hard. They always are in every recession.

If you didn't know this then please be advised that it is so. It happens quicker and harder than anyone expects at the time.

Its NOT different this time.

WWW

Dane-Ger 3rd Apr 2008 17:30

I go into this with open eyes and I must admit that this thread does worry me.

but what should wannabes do? just give up? at the age of 33 I can't really afford to sit and wait it out.

what I do know is that The pilots I know have all one thing in common (apart from luck:p) in that they were doggedly determined to get to where they are now, and when I ask them "if someone told YOU whilst training, stop now it's not worth it, would you?" they all say the same thing.

My wish is to be an instructor, If I make that I will be ecstatic. my job is teaching, my love is flying. but instructing jobs will of course will also be affected by any downturn. so maybe part time, maybe I will have to travel far across the world. whatever it takes.

WWW you're posts are very sobering, and give a realistic insight into the immense problems ahead for newly qualified pilots (and I'm sure many experienced ones). but I'm curious, if you were a wannabe just now, would you give it up?

Regards

D-G

Edit - what i forgot to say was that the current uncertainty (and this thread) has made may alter my plans, I decided after the many downturn warnings to go directly from CPL to FI rating, instead of doing an IR first. Time to try and get a foot in the door I think:ok:

Wee Weasley Welshman 3rd Apr 2008 19:44

At your age I would feel guilty about exposing my family to the risks and lifestyle of a career changing pilot. I wouldn't do it.

Life as an instructor is ****. I've done it at volunteer level, PPL level and CPL/IR level. Its **** and poorly paid. You will hate it and I'll stamp over your rose tinted glasses if you don't.

If I were a Wannabe right now then YES I'd stop training . My job prospects would be rubbish and getting worse. I'd do something else. Flying is driving taxis in the air. There is no glamour. There are no riches.

BE very very careful.

WWW

Philpaz 3rd Apr 2008 20:18

I see all the evidence, its there for all to see. Everythings going to hell and all signs point to it getting worse. All my instinct tells me to stop spending my hard earned on training for a career that i may never get a sniff at. Problem is dreams aren't born from common sense......I feel like the idiot looking for the end of the rainbow.
As always WWW offers only sound advice, but i suspect nobody will heed the warnings, I know i wont (at my age its now or never). Only myself to blame though if it all goes wrong, i'll make sure i save enough to buy the Welshman a beer for at least trying to warn us off.:uhoh:

Dane-Ger 3rd Apr 2008 20:20

Thankyou for your honest reply.

Firstly with regards to my family, we have decided to travel no matter what, we have lived abroad before and it is something we enjoy, so at worst six months in Florida will be an experience for them.

secondly, I know the money is crap as an instructor, but I have been lucky with property, we will get by, money is not the driving factor in this decision.

Maybe I will hate it, I doubt it, I teach already and enjoy it enormously, I would rather combine both and fly and teach. And you can't seriously tell me there is no thrill in seeing a student gaining his license or going on a first solo?

and lastly, there is no glamour in being an instructor anyway, I have no intentions of working for an airline, so I guess driving a taxi in the air is the height of my ambitions.

I guess the worst case scenario is we have a six month holiday that costs us 400k. I can live with that, and if all else fails I will always be able to return to teaching maths (fortunately recessions don't affect public schools).

regards (with rose tinted specs intact;))

D-G

Wee Weasley Welshman 3rd Apr 2008 20:30

I salute every man who takes the plunge right now. I'll support you.

Those that think instructing at a basic level is rewarding or enough to support a family then you are wrong. Its poorly paid dangerous and monotonous work that destroys your soul. Every other PPL instuctor who wants a flightdeck agrees with me. I don't have to ask..

WWW

roll_over 3rd Apr 2008 20:38

WWW you are doing a great job. Hopefully when I come to apply with airlines in a about 4 years from now there will be a few less people to compete against thanks to you.

If it all goes kaput I will have a good degree to fall back on, but I don't think (hope) I will need it.


I remember seeing a programme a few years back about an imminent house price crash, experts told people to sell up and rent, waiting for the prices to fall massively then cash in, they are still waiting....


Wonder what the mood is like at investment wannabe forums :E

Dane-Ger 3rd Apr 2008 20:41

I would hope the challenge of making a career from instructing, and moving on to advanced instructing / examining would make it more attractive and less monotonous.

but only one way to find out.

btw, your advice IS appreciated, you are right, the most sensible thing would probably just be to stop. unfortunately I can't.

anyway, I have theory exams in 4 days so I'd better get back to studying or the only thing I'll be flying is a computer game!

regards

D-G

ChriSat 3rd Apr 2008 20:42

On a lighter note, its not all doom and gloom

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7327762.stm

The economy is impossible to predict, but yes, i do see the dip continuing into the forthcoming months, possibly into later next year. This is no 1929, more of an early 90's downtrun -- we can't expect continuous growth forever. I'm almost certain its not as bad as the pessimistic's are leading you to belive.

Chris.

mason 3rd Apr 2008 22:08

Oh Shit
 
ohh ****ttt im on the back end of my training and this thread really scares me.
but maybe people could be wrong about this has the dynamics of the world economy not changed with the rise of China and India and this is just shaking the boat.
however im probably out of my debt but
I think it would be a good time for someone to come up with an
innovative way of flying without oil ,Nuclear doubt its possible though,
bio fuels ?solar powered plane test flight this year .



JB007 3rd Apr 2008 22:44

Within my company there is still quite alot of movement going on to pastures new, mainly due to BA's recruitment drive and holiday bookings are apparently higher than this time last year - so far, no-one seems to be giving up the annual holiday! And, like Thomas Cook, I wouldn't be suprised if a few more CTC cadets are taken on next year...

Rumours of the Emirate's payrise, 25%-30%, may generate some massive movement throughout Europe as the Middle East become worth it again!!!????

Nichibei Aviation 4th Apr 2008 05:56

In March Ryanair has carried 19% more traffic compared to March 2007 with load factor up 1 percent.

Wee Weasley Welshman 4th Apr 2008 07:14

And their shareprice indicates the City expects a 60% fall in profitability.. Oh, and you work for a flying school.


And just because the Chavs are still booking holidays on their credit cards is no reason to believe the economy is rosy.


WWW

Trevor Macken 4th Apr 2008 07:25

Incorrect WWW, the Chavs are booking holidays on other people's credit cards !!!! :}

Wee Weasley Welshman 4th Apr 2008 07:26

This is copied from the Rumours And New forum. It illustrates what has happened in the worlds largest pilot market. The US is around 14 months ahead of us in terms of a recession but we beat the in the race to have the first bank collapse...

<snip>


Don't know, but this is probably only the beginning. (related to the past few months, copied from an US forum)


United stopped hiring
Delta stopped hiring
Continental stopped hiring
Northwest stopped hiring
Expressjet stopped hiring
Skywest stopped hiring
ASA stopped hiring
FedEx stopped hiring
UPS has stopped hiring
Expressjet is offering pilots unpaid leave of absences
United is grounding 15-20 737 aircraft
Delta is grounding 10? mainline aircraft
Northwest is grounding 24 DC-9 aircraft
Regional flying has been cut substantially
Comair, Skywest, Expressjet, ASA, Mesa, and others have had their regional contracted flying hours cut
Aloha Airlines filed for bankruptcy (again)
Skybus cut back almost 50% of their routes
Froniter sold 4 aircraft
Jetblue sold 6 aircraft
Big Sky went out of business
Skyway went out of business
Aloha went out of business
Champion Air went out of business

Edit: ATA out of business

<snip>


It will be the same in Europe next year.


WWW

Trevor Macken 4th Apr 2008 07:36

Interesting stats ....
 
WWW,

What is the general state of affairs in the Europe at the moment ?
Are carriers hiring, are they going into a similar mode as the US has?

TM

Nichibei Aviation 4th Apr 2008 07:37

I already told you that share prices of airlines can drop as much as you want, it doesn't affect traffic figures and pilots/aircraft needed.

If less people are willing to invest into airlines, I can understand them, there are way more interesting and lucrative markets out there.

If less people want to invest, it doesn't mean that less people are going to fly.

I can already hear you scream to your wife:
"Oh my god darling, the share prices of BA have dropped 2% today, I'll have to cancel my next week's flight :eek:"

Now remember what I'm teaching you right now, I ain't gonna say it twice:
THE REAL INDICATOR OF PILOT JOBS ARE TRAFFIC FIGURES NOT AN AIRLINE'S SHARES' RISE & FALL.


The U.S. is hit by a bad blast, but it's their own fault.
The UK will also struggle out of compassion.

Mainland Europe is doing well just look at the traffic figures of February:

http://files.aea.be/News/PR/Pr08-012.pdf

The Association of European Airlines has released traffic and capacity data for its members in February 2008.
Overall, traffic, measured in passenger-km, increased by 6.0% and capacity (seat-km) by 8.6%

Note: If you analyse the end of the table, you see that the only figure that show a decrease are load factor figures. A capacity increase of 8.6% means that that many more pilots are needed.


Alitalia is doing bad but it has nothing to do with the US recession, just in case WWW would try to mention it.

Wee Weasley Welshman 4th Apr 2008 07:52

I fear Nichiebi that the God of Economics is going to teach you a big lesson. Harshly.

Were you involved with aviation during the early 90's recession? Do you even remember the early 90's recession?

I've just opened todays Times:


British Airways hit by fall in business-class passengers


Virgin may scrap in-flight beauty service


Acacia Avenue could catch Commercial Street chill: Where commercial property goes, so goes housing.


Since June last year the average value of commercial property has fallen by 15 per cent, according to IPD. The actual prices being paid, however, are down by nearer 20 per cent. The property derivatives market is currently pricing in a fall of 18 per cent for the whole of 2008. That would mean prices would have fallen 26 per cent between June last year and the end of December this year.


My analysis is much more pessimistic than that which you find in the mainstream press reports that I refer to here and in other posts. Nevertheless such daily tallies of woe and gloom serve to show that I am not imagining this and I am not alone in my gloomy economic outlook.

European airline failures are just months away. With them will come the redundant pilot. With that the wannabe market closes. Overnight.


WWW

Trevor Macken 4th Apr 2008 07:54

Share prices
 
Over the last 6 years I have made two serious share investments of €30k and €22k through a particular well known loco based in Europe.(HHHmmmm I wonder who that could be!!!).

All told, they were a risk at the time as loosing that type of capital would hurt most people quite badly. Thankfully I have done relatively well on one and made a Gordon Ghecko style killing on the other(greed IS good my friends). I was fortunate enough to be able to read the market over those two specific periods in time. I feel flight training is similar, you are effectively trying to predict 18-24 months ahead of the current cycle.

My point, share prices go up, share prices go down. Its how their increase/decrease is interpreted is the key to the ongoing Pilot recruitment sector.

:cool: :ok: :D :yuk: :zzz: :ouch:

Nichibei Aviation 4th Apr 2008 08:14

If Alitalia goes bust, 3000 pilots will be released on the market, with some being picked up by Italian airlines like Itali and Air One.

I think that this is a bigger challenge than any "European airline's failure because of dropping real estate prices".
And yet, it may slow down the market for a few months, that still doesn't mean that new students starting today will find themselves looking for a job for ages.

If Virgin Atlantic's beauty service isn't doing well, it doesn't mean that Virgin Atlantic itself is doing bad, though one would certainly expect that seen that a big part of their earnings is in USD.

If BA is not doing well, it's because the UK is hit by the same problems as the U.S. as I've already stated.

Let's inform people adequately.
I and my employer (which seems to be your greatest argument, while you allow camouflaged flight schools to post anything on here) don't gain much by saying that everything is doing fine in Europe.
A slowdown would mean students would look for cheaper training and more flexibility meaning modular and eventually one of our (future) programs.

I think that your argument is not the right one.

Saying that people should choose for cheaper traininig because of a simulated slowdown is not the right approach. We should confront the students to the reality of expensive schools instead, who are giving the same training for twice the price and misleading students with "quality".

Wee Weasley Welshman 4th Apr 2008 08:15

Trust the Evening Standard newspaper to tell it like I think it is:

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/a...ine/article.do



House prices 'will crash soon': Bank chiefs warn YOUR home is overvalued by 30 per cent


House prices are 30 per cent too high in the UK and could soon crash, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday.

After a decade-long housing boom, it fears Britain is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to a devastating price collapse.

In a further blow, the Bank of England warned that the mortgage meltdown is going to get even worse.



That's it. Recession guaranteed and with every recession there has ever been airlines go bust or get smaller. The pilot hiring market freezes instantly.

WWW

Nichibei Aviation 4th Apr 2008 08:24

Banks earn interests on loans
=banks want more people to borrow money
=banks want more people to buy homes
=banks want to force more people to sell their homes for less money
=banks diffuse rumours that people's homes are overpriced on the media

We've seen airlines going bust in the past few weeks because of the recession. Yet, we haven't seen any banks go bust... :rolleyes:

Wee Weasley Welshman 4th Apr 2008 08:36

Not sure of your point there given that Northern Rock and Bear Stearns have both gone bust in the last 6 months.


Its by no means a UK only problem. Ireland is in worse shape than us as is Spain:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...-mostviewedbox

Foreign banks flee Spanish property debt

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Madrid
Last Updated: 1:06am BST 04/04/2008

International banks are scrambling to sell their holdings of Spanish mortgage debt at a steep discount, fearing that the country may be sliding into the worst economic downturn in its modern history.

Wee Weasley Welshman 4th Apr 2008 08:41

Although to be fair the US is still showing us the future for Europe and the rest of the West. The IMF (THE IM conservative F!) will next week publish this:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3663457.ece

IMF to cut prospects for US growth by two-thirds
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor

The American economy faces a painful recession that will be deeper than the downturn at the start of this decade and the most severe since the early Nineties, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to predict next week.


Since WWII every US recession has resulted in a UK recession. Every UK recession has resulted in airline collapses. Every airline collapse results in no job for Wannabes.

That's enough joining the dots lessons for one morning I think. :ugh:


WWW

RB311 4th Apr 2008 08:57

Dear WWW.

Can I ask what is your purpose on this forum, if it is not to try and put off wannabees as much as possible to start a career in aviation?

I do not think I have seen such pessmistic and negative opinions anywhere else.

There will always be a need for airlines, even in times of a downturn, if for no other reason than to fly administrators and liquidators around the world.

RB311

Mercenary Pilot 4th Apr 2008 09:11

Take WWW's advice on board as he is talking a lot of sense. That's not to say you shouldn't go forward with flight training if you have done the proper research but just be aware of the very possible outcome and make sure you have a back-up plan in place.

Oh, and make sure you take off the rose tinted spectacles. :ugh:

PPPPPP :ok:

Wee Weasley Welshman 4th Apr 2008 09:18

You may well not have heard such cautionary words elsewhere. Whom do you suppose would write them? The CAA? The Flying Schools? The airlines?

This place, this forum, exists as a somewhat unique resource for Wannabe where they may learn and exchange information about their desired career. If the information is that their desires may be thwarted by imminent and unfolding economic recession then whilst this is disheartening, saddening, and woeful, it is ultimately, useful information to have at hand.

I completed my basic training in a previous decade. I stopped being a commercial flying instructor early in this millenium. I am now a Captain in a growing EU airline with a fairly secure career. I have no Vested Interest in talking down the airline jobs market.

I serve only to provide a warning sign. A note of caution. To act as augury in a bid to protect a flock of Wannabes.

You are quite right. There is always a need for airlines. But with no growth there is little requirement for new pilots.. Splurging £80k on a dream right now might put you and your family in a nightmare tomorrow.

Please try to avoid the mistake of shooting the messenger.. ;)


WWW

RVR800 4th Apr 2008 09:19

Doom and Gloom
 
All this doom and gloom sells newpapers

Next month they'll be saying house prices due to double in the next year.

I dont believe any of it...

1. High employment
2. Low interest rates
3. Shortage of housing

Although

Shortage of credit but I know someone who easily got a mortgage; that said if your unemployed in Cleveland Ohio you might not get a mortgage anymore..

Is easyjet getting good load figures?

99jolegg 4th Apr 2008 09:27

An interesting discussion. As someone has mentioned, I think it's important to draw a distinction between who this will affect. If you are half way through your training or are due to finish training in about 6 months, then the outlook may well be bad. You have a lot of debt, airlines go into hibernation mode to protect themselves from the future storm and in turn worsens the effect.

However, all that said, for the wannabe that is applying in 2 months, going on a course 2 months after that for the best part of two years, can you really apply the same negative forecast? Surely, 2 years and 6 months later, things should be picking up?

WWW, I part agree with you, although as a lot of it comes out of the media, it attracts some scepticism from me. They want to sell newspapers. What is the one thing that, without fail, will attract one's attention? Money.

Having said that, I'll be saving this page in my favourites, checking on what was said a few months down the line and suggesting WWW goes to work for Mervyn :E

RB311 4th Apr 2008 09:42

Dear WWW,

I am coming at this from the inside, as I am already working for, like you, an expanding airline, which has an active recruitment process as well.

It just seems that a lot of your posts appear to paint such a un rosy like picture that it would be small wonder if any one embarked on a new aviation career.

But like all industries there is a constant turnover of staff, whether it be retirement, illness or just plain pissed off with their job, and so there will be a need to attract new, keen, un-bloodied guns to take up the mantle.

You are right to highlight the potential downsides, I agree, but perhaps not to focus on them too much!

RB311

Wee Weasley Welshman 4th Apr 2008 09:44

"All this comes from the media" is a difficult criticism to counter. The fact that the media is reporting what my own analysis of the data suggests means that I am able to illustrate my sentiments by pointing to media articles that share it. In by so doing I hope that my sentiment gains greater weight by fact of being shared by others.

I could quite happily post about the M3 money supply, house price affordability graphs, economic cycle theory and the BaselII banking regulatory reforms resulting in a money-as-debt economy that is doomed to collapse. But it doesn't lend itself to readable debate and I'd be dismissed as an internet Nostradamus lunatic.

High Employment is false. Unemployment is hidden by the Disability claimant count. Already redundancies in the thousands are happening in the world of finance, insurance, construction and engineering. The US employment figures show steady and accelerating rates of unemployement and the backward looking UK statistics will follow.

Low Interest Rates are false. At least a third of those looking to remortgage and all those looking for a first mortgage face interest rates of 6.7% after fees are included. Thats IF you can get a mortgage with your credit rating and LTV ratio. Those that are forced on to SVR will be paying North of 7.2%. When this is on a negative equity loan equalling 5 times joint houshold income then we are already way past the early 1990's boiling point of 15% interest rates on 3.5 times main income earners lending prevalent at the time. Don't even get me started on the Buy To Regret disaster and Liar Loans..

Shortage Of Housing is also a myth. Nearly one million houses are held as second homes or holiday residences which are entirely discretionary. All major housebuilders have stopped buying land and are slowing all sites work rate as they have a glut of unsold new build properties. We build between 160,000 and 180,000 homes in the UK every year and this is more than enough to account for population growth and the rise of single living. Immigration puts pressure on housing stock it is true. However, as the economy freezes over Harry the Pole and his million mates are gone in the blink of an easyJet booking...


Its not different this time. Its worse.

Research the 1991 - 1993 recession and what it did to airlines and pilots jobs.


WWW


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