Thank you.

It is what it is, and you adjust...

These threads have been doing the rounds since the new year began and for those wanting a career as a pro pilot and cabable of reading through the doom and gloom speculation: Plan it very very carefully, the above quote say's it all, I would be cautious of throwing alot of money at an integrated course right now, consider the modular route, a "chunk" at a time. Be VERY aware of your position in the market place at all times i.e. Your job potential with <200 hours and a fATPL. Be aware of what the industry is doing, I was shocked during my CPL/IR when I met chaps who didn't know what a Turbo-Prop was or what a B737 looked like. This will help you to judge what the above quote is saying!

My company and the other large Charter operator in the UK (TCA) have both announced that any speculation of an economic downturn has not affected bookings for summer 2008; both are above forecast. Although my company has some major changes yet to come that may affect pilot numbers! Still a good time to be an experienced pilot, I would suspect CTC will continue to fill the gaps...

I trained modular throughout the aftermath of 9/11, finishing my exams in August 2001!!!! September 2001 changed everything, including having to take my shoes off before getting into my seat! I went back to work, did my CPL, went back to work, did my IR...got my first job on a turbo-prop 5 months after my IR test, never paid for a renewal because timing was everything! Now B757/B767...

I believe the Americans define a recession as two consecutive quarters of "negative growth". However, one can only really tell whether you are/were in one 6 months plus data processing time after the recession started, so as the wise, patient men say: Time will tell :)

However, it does not really help you to know what sold last year, you need to know what sells next year, if you are to be a good business man. In a downturn, airlines will still hire a number of pilots although a number smaller than in booming times and were I to start out again, I would not hesitate to sign up for CTC or another organisation with a proven track record.

In any respect, pilot training will always bear an element of risk in it and the risk is on the rise right now, but a dream is a dream and should be chased according to my life philosophy. Good luck :)

Only the Americans could come up with a contradicting definition "Negative Growth".

As said above, there will always be an inhereant amount of risk in borrowing and spending 50k upwards on flight training. I cant think of one single thing other than this that requires so much money with absolutely no gurantee's at the end.

But there will always be a reason why something can't be done and economies always bounce back so the long term will be fine. It may be rough for newbie's like myself for a while but nothing this good comes easy so as long as you plan to get yourself through the really **** times of no money, no job and lapsing ratings then you'll be fine.

I'm just about to start my training and have planned for a hard time ahead with little or no job prospects and little hope of any improvement on the situation for a few years. If I get a job in the mean time then great but I'm not banking on it. All doom and gloom? Well I probably sound bloody miserable but just being cautious with the whole thing but none of my fears come close to stopping me from cracking on with it.

Flying Squid :ok:

Hi,

Looking at econimic downturn maybe someone can give me advise.
I’m doing all my training on the continent paying for that in Euros, recent massive fall of GBP cost me a lot of money. :{

Are there any economists on the group ? Maybe somone has some sensible forecast for EUR/STG exchange ? :ugh:

Thank you !
LC

We are also affected by this as we accept GBP/EUR payments and pay our bills in USD.

The big problem is that the UK is panicked by the U.S. recession, but mainland Europe isn't. Transactions are happening as usually, real estate prices are stabilising but still increasing.

The EUR will certainly go over the 1.50 USD barrier soon when the US enters recession and start selling its currency for a more stable currency.

Bush doesn't give a sh*t about his government anymore as he's leaving office end of the year.
Obama or Hillary (we'll know soon ;-) ) will relaunch the economy by a politic of trust and by ending the war.

All I can tell you is that when the economy worsens in the US over the next few months, the UK economy will tend to worsen aswell, the GBP will probably drop even more against the EUR.

Exchange at least 10 000GBP on every occasion, that will earn you a very good rate. Don't go to exchange banks, go to your own bank.

Do not catch me wrong though, a recession in the UK does not mean it is going to widely affect air travel or travel in general.
Actually the airline that can earn the most money from a recession in the UK is FR... people will tend to go for cheap hotels and cheap airline tickets. Not a surprise Mol's talking about a "big dowturn", he just wants to give the recession a push forward.

Nichibei have you seen property prices in markets like Spain and Ireland... still increasing??.... which planet are you living on??

As for asking for FX advice on Pprune... I would suggest that would be a rather foolish thing to do... a lot of "armchair experts" on here... would be similar to going and asking the bloke down the pub what to do with you hard earned pennies!

JB - Spot On!

My UK IR 170A - September 10th 2001 :{

Went into Hedgehog Mode, got a proper job - instructed part time, learnt some very good jokes to tell in the cruise when I was PA'ing on my days off.

Things got better gardually - now P1 on a chunky bizjet

Forget integrated training, if you do not have a job within 6 months of graduating then modular/integrated does not matter.

All this 80k-100K bull needs to stop right now - go modular, speak to your boss explain that you may wish to have some unpaid leave in 2009, do it in chunks. Do the majority of the training in the US - cheeeeeeeap$ get FAA licenses as well, get as much license for your £££'s as possible.

Come back more rounded, more hours, more interesting to spend time with, more able to adapt to the Kingair Job you will probably get rather than programmed to the non existent airbus job you are longing after (and pissing off your kingair boss by telling him how much 737 FNPTII time you have). The days of living the 737 dream are slipping away, tell Oxford to shove it and paddle your own canoe and save yourself 50K.

Think less about the goal being getting the fATPL and consider the goal to be getting a job - any job, I've said it before but when the music stops make sure you have a seat!

best of luck - and to the accountant who borrowed the money and its too late to pay it back, - pay it back and go modular and keep your proper job. I know its dead easy to say that from FL410 but imagine one of your clients proposing to do what you are doing on a loan of 80k with a doubtful outcome - what would you advise?????

G-Spot,

Finally someone talking sense and getting it in a nutshell.
Get a seat, any seat and weather the storm. It's a dream job yes but way too many people living in a dream world. :ok:

All this doom and gloom from MOL yet ironically he advertised in flightglobal only yesterday desperate for FO's! Looking for 400 new starts this year according to Ryanair website. Doesnt look like a down turn to me.

Have you been on the spot for years or have you just "read it on the media"?

I can tell you for sure that this is not the case in France, Germany, Benelux and Italy.

As about FX, it is very simple, FX is unpredictable, not to economists, not to anyone, otherwise it wouldn't be going up and down all the time.
It's not like shares, those are predictable. No, there are too many factors in FX for a human being to handle and sort out on a human time scale.

If FX were predictable all Americans would have bought EUR currency 6 years ago and traded them for dollars now, a 70% investment.

Nichibei share price movements are "predictable" well you must be Warren Buffet then... I bow to your superior knowledge.... :ugh:

Yes I rely 100% on the press... I believe everything they tell me.... I am incapable of independent thought.... but despite all that I can still tell that you are no more reliable than picking up the Daily Mail so maybe I am not a complete lost cause ;)

(Oh if share prices are predictable clearly BA's share price halving in the past 12 months, Iberia share price halving, Ryanair's share price halving, Air France/KLM's share price more than halving.... outlook must be rosey for pilot recruitment because the management that run these companies won't care about that... oh but Easyjet is only down 40%... must mean the future is bright... the future is orange :E)

Boy….Talk about gloom and doom!!

What happened to the good old WWW of 2000? You know,..the instructor who posted positive contributions and helped us through what were VERY difficult times then, as he used his initiative, detemination and worked his way to EZY.

No, it’s not going to be easy for low hr pilots….It NEVER was!

£60 -£80k does not guarantee a job, never has done, never will!

As ever it’s those who show a little initiative and make it their business to at least appear employable that will win through in a recession (if it happens), or not.

With words of encouagement and avice from moderators like ‘ it is going to be really horrid being a wannabe’, And ‘The party is over. Those with £80k of debt, 200hrs and a lovely stack of CV's have my sympathy.’ Perhaps there is no hope and its time to give up, close the forum, and change it to 'Wannabe Economists’…..we seem to have enough of them!

BTW There are, and always will be jobs out there just don't expect them to land at your feet!

There are too many variables in economics and financial services to come to a simpe conclusion ... those that beat on about "doom and gloom" are pessimists, and those that ignore the indicators with rose tinted glasses are optimists.

For what it's worth, there may well be a downturn in the financial markets, but reading the impact on the aviation business is far too difficult. You know, it could even be beneficial (e.g. encouraging growth in low cost travel). The reliance on the US as the engine of global growth is somewhat alleviated with China and (to a lesser extent) India surging on. EU and UK markets are stable, interest rates are low (and likely to get lower), employment levels are high. Outrageous housing values are dropping (moderately, which they NEED to), but equity levels remain high - this points more to readjustment rather than recession to me. Perhaps we are all missing the point - it is inevitable that markets will cycle, but I would argue we are in a better position now more so than ever to manage it and ride it out. The real worry is inflation ... but even that's not out of hand ... yet!

Bear in mind, those that think it's bad - I remember the days of >10% unemployment, >10% interest rates, high inflation. But still the profession and business survived, we all did.

Too much negativity is a bad thing. It's always a gamble getting into the aviation game. But believe it or not, you can make your own good luck.

I find the world to have no shortage of people in it encouragin wannabes to spend vast sums of money on training. I have been responsible for encouraging many on just how to do so for many years. However, unlike most, I don't actually make my living out of this industry (not since 2000). This allows me the luxury of being the dissenting voice if I so choose.

I didn't imagine a house price crash in the US and recession. I'm not being tricked when I check www.propertysnake.co.uk and see real house in my street dropping in price in the UK. My eyes do not deceive me when I gaze upon abandoned building sites in Southern Spain nor read the horror stories unfolding in the Dublin housing market. My ears did not misshear Michael O Leary's unequivocal prediction of European recession.

The halving of most airlines and holiday companies share prices in the last year persuades me that the City and the Analysts believe profits are at high risk. My reading of the broader economic cycle suggests a recession 18yrs after the last one fits a pattern. My understanding of what a credit crunch means to an economy based on credit leads me to believe we have only seen the early tremours of a quake yet to hit.

For a Wannabe in the US/UK/Eurozone who aspires to an airline job in the near future all this leads to a very gloomy conclusion. I can't help that. What I can do is try just a little to make sure people making large life decisions do so at least with some balance of opinion in the process.

It only takes one of the household airlines to go under and you have hundreds of pilots out of work. That several years supply of Wannabes. So its perhaps most sensible NOT to put yourself in a position where you owe lots of money. As I have said before over many years going Integrated DOES make sense in certain conditions. The most important of which is a frantic hiring market with Chief Pilots on the phone to Integrated schools on a weekl basis as the business plan expands yet again.

I think I can say with a high degree of confidence that the frantic hiring market is gone. So a major condition in favour of high debt, high intensity, training has also gone.

Whether we are staring into the abyss of a full blown UK/US/Eurozone recession is a more contentious issue. I think we are. I'm more than happy to be proved wrong and hope I will be. So I'm all for reading posts by optimists.

Right, back to the pool, :D


WWW

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/com...cle3321789.ece

And as I pick up my copy of The Times by the pool I see Anatole is coming rapidly around to my view - and he's one of the most optimistic economic commentators around..

Britain needs a big interest rate cut today to counter the possible disasters ahead Anatole Kaletsky

The British economy is in big trouble. I say this as someone who has stuck his neck out since the mid-1990s in arguing that the British model was basically sound and..


Protect yourself - keep your debt low.


WWW

Dear moderator,

I hope that the schools that are paying the expensive advertisements on this website don't get to read you, I'm not sure about them being happy about what you're writing there.

MIKECR,

Don't be fooled; how many of these FOs do you thinks will be on permanent, full-time contracts?

sr

Nichibei

Just because he's a moderator doesn't mean he has a vested interest in this site, or the financial wellbeing of those companies who choose to advertise here. That's what makes pprune so useful, in particular the wannabes section. You get accurate and honest advice from professionals who know what they are talking about, for free. It's the only place I know that offers this.

He's giving a totally objective point of view - can you honestly say that you are being just as objective with yours?

In other news easyJet have updated their careers webpage informing applicants that there will be no more openings for Type Ratings until late 2008. In easyJet speak that most likely means this time next year. So, it's february and one of the biggest airlines and biggest recruiters of pilots' in recent years has finished hiring for the year. Make of it what you will.

...and be aware of potential reductions within the TUI Travel empire...reasearch more than ever is required before commencing training!

Refer to post #40 of this thread and the quote;I have no doubt that the experienced pilots will be fine, it's those with <200 hours, fATPL and nothing in the logbook but single pilot training that will struggle, I would hazzard a guess until 2010/11!

Speedstriction,

Im not being fooled. I was merely pointing out that Ryanair desperately require at least 450 new pilots this year to cope with their plans. The type of contract or who they are employed by is irellevant.

I agree with JB007 and WWW.

I got an email from an asian company telling me, until end 2008, they are full of 3000h pilots(for an A320 position).
Got an email from DHL telling me they got lot of applicants and they wish me good luck.
Then Rishworth telling us, they have received lot of emails for a job in Asia.

Then I 've applied in person in 3-4 different companies,gave my CV, they didn't show any interest, and still no answer.

so do yourself a favor, don't borrow money if you can not afford it!
(and forget these line trainings where you have to pay, these line trainings show us how bad the situation is).

if Alitalia go bust, you can say bye bye to your career!

How's this for a plan....
 

Hello All. I've just passed all but one of my subjects on the OAT skills assessment two-day training. I'll go back in 3 months and re-sit that one part. If I pass I'm accepted onto the OAT ATPL 18 month course

Now ready through this thread and other sources my plan, if I pass would be this: Give myself a year to a) raise/save funds, b) secure loan from HSBC and most importantly C) let the winds of the current global financial storm settle and see how my prospects look. If the main forecast is correct 2008/2009 will be full of economically hard time affecting most if not all aspects of business in a negative way. But by late 2009/ going into 2010 thing should begin to look good again, and by this time (having started my training in spring 2009) I should have timed it right and will be able to enter an industry with greater employment opportunities for a recent ATPL graduate.

Please, I no expert, but how does that sound. What are my faults with this plan, any comments welcome.

Propogandhi.

Mikecr
 

When things get tough its the contract pilots who get the chop first, then its last in first out for the ones on permanent contracts. Have a think about why some airlines employ contract pilots, then you might understand the relevance of it all.

What's your total time Dartagnan?

If you have more than 500 hours, I can give you so many airlines that are hiring: SN, AF, FR, VLM, Swiss, Vueling, Clickair, etc...

The sooner you start, the better.
Go modular, don't go to integrated!
For the same price as OAT you can get CPL IR ME and 500 hours total time.
At OAT you get 200 hours of which 50 are on simulators....
What will make you so special compared to othe candidates?

If taking a loan is necessary to finance your training, you're not on the right path and should rethink your strategy. I know plenty of guys working as cab drivers or mailmen to finance their training and the level of satisfaction when they get hired is high+they don't have a 700£ monthly loan repayment runnning over 10 years+have the freedom of taking a loan if required to pay the TR by their airline.

The market outlook is great, pilot is a job for life: http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...t-by-2026.html

Nichiebi I am starting to think you are either very stupid or a wind-up merchant.... if there are sooo many jobs out there why would it matter if you went modular or integrated?.... you would be snapped up the second you left school.... or are you now saying that maybe you won't get a job straight out of flight training??.... but that would mean that WWW and others who dare suggest that the next 2-3 years might be quite tough for pilot recruitment might be right... and you have spent the last couple of weeks arguing they are totally wrong!?!?.

You acuse people of listening too much to the press but then you quote straight from management (do they always tell the truth??) and the press to support your case??

So what is it... are you a wind up merchant.... stupid... or are you sure you were 100% honest when you said you didn't work for a flight school?? You are certainly a "unique" individual.

Read my previous posts the answer is there, ie, no airline hires a 200 hour pilot unless it is desperate.
Airlines in Europe require an average of 500 hours total time.


As to your insults, you may keep them for yourself. :cool:

There are not many flight school employees wandering around on Pprune and it is because they don't take the time to answer to people like you.
So don't take advantage of my willingness to share information (within my field of expertise) to start throwing critics just to make yourself feel smarter or whatever emotions you are experiencing now.

We're not big money takers like traditional big aviation schools, but closer to volunteers, a quick look to our rates will tell you that we're the cheapest of the world.

And I'm going to disclose you a little secret because it's going to be on the website soon anyway:

We're looking to select Indian students with skills, no matter what social class they belong to, to give them the opportunity to have a good training for only around 30 000€ with Indian CPL, which will be on a loan that they'll start paying once hired.
That is in line with our philosophy that pilots should be selected on their skills and capabilities and not on their financial capacities.

If you are frustrated about high training costs and expensive advetising, go and throw critics to your local FTO.

I'm happy to help, because I can learn something from doing so.

There are alot of hypocrits in this world, but respect those that are not.

Nichibei,

come down to earth and listen the big guys like WWW...If you don't have a strong experience on an eavy jet, there is very few chance to get a job.

these companies you mention, don't hire guys with 200 hours, not even with 500h, or not even with 6000h. they want EAVY JET experience like 2000-3000 hours of bus/boeing and preferably captains.

you make me laugh with your Cessna 152 integrated/modular flight club and you story about pilots shortage!!!.

Propaghandi.....

Heres a thought - go do a PPL see if you like flying :ugh::ugh::ugh:

No no no. Much better to focus on getting 'in' to Oxfords prestigious course.

Sometimes you do feel like you are banging your head!

WWW

trust me I do like flying that is never in doubt, but how does my plan stand up?

Well, I was doubtful about Nichibei when he tried to play an expert on Scandinavian issues shortly after he opened his profile. It is always peculiar to be lectured by home issues by someone who has probably not even sat foot here. This thread has shown his true colours, though, and is little more than an advocate of the business he is an employee in i.e. flight training and anyone seeking advice should keep that in mind when reading his biased advice.

You can ask a the car dealer about the used car you are buying, but that certainly does not disclose the faults. The short Welshman seems to be a better source of unbiased advice, although he sees a bleaker picture than I do :)

Shaun,

Your not understanding my post. Im simply saying that Ryanair require at least 400 - 500 new pilots this year, they are desperate. What contract they are on is irrevelant. Im trying to get across the point that the lo'co's are rubbing their hands at present should a recession hit. Of course it will be the contract people who go first, thats the whole bloomin reason MOL employs contract people in the first place. Easy come, easy go! The fact is that many airlines and operators will probably pull the pennies should the recession take hold, many others however will profit from the misfortune.

I love this word (desperate), it seems you don't know really what desperate means?
when an airline receive hundred, thousand of CV every month, is the airline desperate?
they are not, because WE (pilots) are desperate to enter in the Ryanair club, and this is why Ryanair charge pilots 50 quids to send your desperate little CV.

dartagnan,

Ryanair are looking to recruit 400 to 500 pilots this year. If you tick all the boxes and have everyhting current then you will undoubtdely be called for interview if you apply. I filled in the online application overnight and had 3 phonecalls next morning either asking me to go to an open day or go for interview/assesment. If you want to line their pockets and pay £500 for interview/assesment and then 25k for TR and job then be my guest. My cv isnt that 'desperate' im afraid. If you have applied to Ryanair and havent heard anything from them then i would suggest YOU will be the one who learns the meaning of the word 'desperate'. If you cant get an interview with them then your situation really is dire straits!

Propagandi

Your plan I understand is this

If you are asking me what is wrong with this plan then the answer I'm afraid its pretty much all of it.

You dont mention your age, that is probably the most critical thing to affect the process of you getting a license. To be honest you could probably get a PPL and the ATPL's done for maybe 10k pay that back over 3 years at £300 a month whilst having a proper job. In three years time pop your head above the parapet and have a look see, if things are improving you are ideally placed to jack in work borrow another 15-20k and do the CPL/IR and be ready in 6 months for all the new 737 jobs that will be miraculously appearing.

The PPL will probably take 12-18months involve either two winters or two summers, the JAR Exams probably another 9-12 months with distance learning. If you choose the right school you will be just as good as skilled as anybody else in your experience bracket

The alternative is to have HSBC chasing you for 3-4 Years and be struggling to keep current, keep the powder dry and expose yourself to Aviation in a way that minimises your exposure.

May I also suggest that you give your shoes a polish bob down to your airport and find some corporate or GA machine and ask if you can hitch a ride somewhere, you will probably get told to bugger off - you might get lucky. This shows bigger cahunas than begging 80k off HSBC and galantly putting up your parents home as security.

After 2001 the job market was truly terrible for around 5 years, listen to the people who were around then and learn from the mistakes that were made, just dont forget to be empathic about the 80k oxford "Graduates" who will be cleaning your car windscreen at the traffic lights because they are bankrupt or involved in an IVA

G-SPOT,

Well said!

To my knowledge, they don't hire guys who don't start sentences with capital letters, and spell "HEAVY" as "EAVY".
Dartagnan I guess you're French, so visit www.devenirpiloteairfrance.com
English is the worst obstacle when applying to Air France, not experience anymore.

The big irony of this is that I'm not selling JAA courses :ugh:

In the end, you believe what you think is best for you to believe.
With or without you, the airline industry will move forward and so will I.

Wait till EK starts getting their 150+ aircraft and watch European airlines loosing over 2000 crew members to them, and wait till FR starts flying longhaul. ;)

Here's an interesting graph to see: http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/2005%2...%20Only)p2.pdf

Haha! Good post MikeCR, very near the truth for me. In desperation whilst a wannabee I applied to the dreaded blue and whites for a job. I must have been rubbish because they never even acknowledged the application! I now grace the skies flying for an old school British airline!!

Yeah, its the hero worship that makes me love this job..

I'm no economist but I do read it. As I say dissenting views are always welcome. I am more convinced today than yesterday that the I'm faces recession. The figures out today for far east investment and US employment are firmly in crash territory.

This debate is a very important one for wannabes - how many times have we heard that timing is evertything..

WWW

Ryanair will always recruit new pilots, as long as you pay them the thousands they want for the honour!