Wannabes and pilots, don't panic it will work out.
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Wannabes and pilots, don't panic it will work out.
I have been thinking awhile about making comment on the subject of continuing pilot training.
I have been thinking too about what the short and long term effects of this tragedy are, and what subsequent problems face the airlines. My thoughts are mainly drawn from my own experience of running two airlines in the last 20 odd years, and what the effects of recession and war has meant in the past.
The first thing to say is that I respect the views expressed by Scroggs and WWW - and others. That doesn't mean that I have to agree with them. In most cases I don't.
In the 70's when I first started, I was 'advised' that it was the worst possible time to start and airline - but I didn't think so, but everyone says that. In 1977 when my first operation obtained it's AOC, Freddie Laker began operating his SKYTRAIN operation on the basis of making 50p per seat. About £300 maximum! Each way!! The GBP was riding high at around $2.38 and all charges to the airlines, as now, are always in USD. Then a couple of years later the £ dived, SKYTRAIN was wiped off the map, Laker went down the tubes and was quickly followed by others. McDonnell Douglas turned against Fred after receiving 'threats' from German operators that would never buy McD aircraft again if they attempted to bail him out - which they were quite prepared to do. Midland Bank pulled the plug - quite viciously, as they tended to do and Fred was gone. So were his pilots, and cabin staff plus engineers and all.
In 1978/9 British Airways had 'no use' for their many Hamble trained pilots and many came onto the 'market'. BA offered to assist any airline if they could give the Hamble guys a job and I took eight of them. I was to discover that there were NO better trained pilots then - or since. None, but sadly Hamble has long gone. Overall by 1980 I had 50 odd pilots, and 9 Hamble pilots. ALL of the Hamble pilots are in the airlines this day, one or two are now Training Captains on the B744. I was proud to have them.
Later there came the downfall of travel companies, Horizon and Court Airlines, was one such example - more pilots and cabin staff available again. Then later we had Air Europe and IntaSun, more pilots, more cabin staff and so on and so on. Later there was BCal formed from British United and Caledonian, then new airlines came in and then another shortage of pilots arose.
Then the Gulf war came and passenger traffic dropped from 13m to 10.5m - more airlines down the tubes, Paramount, TEA - all were going at an arlarming rate. But then new airlines were formed again, and again and again............the same things were happening.
You see the point? It happens time after time. History repeats itself in the airline industry and always will. But never once, with perhaps the exception of Dan Air where there were exceptional circumstances, did pilots find that they were out of work for long periods. The idea of buying airlines for a £1 had been borne by the infamous David James and Dan Air suffered. But never a shortage of pilots for any length of time. Simply because new operations sprang up like the phoenix out of the ashes.
In my humble opinion, what has happened now is that the recession, that Virgin was guarding against, by RB's own admission, "we have to batten down the hatches till the recession is over", has been deepened suddenly by this barbaric act. In other words the attack on America created it's own recession! This has driven Virgin and others to offload equipment that was hurting them most - the B747 Classic. It was, in fact, probably a welcoming that they could have well done without, but it may well help them survive.
I am not privy to the sums involved but 600 pilots and cabin staff x their salaries is (£??,???,???) and seven(?) Classics x their lease rates is (£??,???,???) and now Virgin can consider their future as being sustainable - possibly! It had to be done or die.
The economics of running an airline are simple. It's Costs over Income - what's left over is profit! Hopefully! If it is negative you worry. Then you have trim the operation down - doing whatever it takes.
I am trying to demonstrate, without giving you too much to hang your hats on, that it has ALL happened before, and during ALL of that in the past Oxford, Perth, CASS and other Training centres were still busy putting people through training. CAFU for example, was at Stansted in the 80's and part of the 90's and getting a slot was very difficult. Unless you had your own TRE/IRE it was a case of booking up well in advance for your own pilots to get their renewals completed. It didn't change.
After the Gulf war the numbers picked up quickly to 12m pax in the first year, and back to 13m and 14m thereafter. Aircraft were hard to get from the leasing companies - who began to do well again. Pilots were hard to find too. Sponsorship by the majors was rife in middle 80's.
So there you are. History will again repeat itself. It will be tougher than before perhaps, but the airlines will come out the other side. Passengers have demonstrated over the years that they have short memories. Then their confidence soon returns.
If I were a wannabe again. And I wouldn't want to these days. I would think positively about your future in the industry. It will return re-newed and raring to go and very much in need of pilots. I have never in 24 years seen it any different.
The industry suffers just like other businesses do but you can't have life without aeroplanes and you can't have aeroplanes without pilots. 6 or 7 crews to each and every one.
The bounce back might be more difficult, it might be longer than usual but it will happen. How can it not?
Think long and hard about what you want to do. Perhaps you could take it in short strides, one thing at a time. But what you should not do is give up. That has never been an option. There is be no reason in my mind to think that now.
The above is fact, well I hope I didn't get anything wrong, and I cannot say that anyone should do this or do that - except giving up. The final decision is yours and yours alone.
Good luck.
I have been thinking too about what the short and long term effects of this tragedy are, and what subsequent problems face the airlines. My thoughts are mainly drawn from my own experience of running two airlines in the last 20 odd years, and what the effects of recession and war has meant in the past.
The first thing to say is that I respect the views expressed by Scroggs and WWW - and others. That doesn't mean that I have to agree with them. In most cases I don't.
In the 70's when I first started, I was 'advised' that it was the worst possible time to start and airline - but I didn't think so, but everyone says that. In 1977 when my first operation obtained it's AOC, Freddie Laker began operating his SKYTRAIN operation on the basis of making 50p per seat. About £300 maximum! Each way!! The GBP was riding high at around $2.38 and all charges to the airlines, as now, are always in USD. Then a couple of years later the £ dived, SKYTRAIN was wiped off the map, Laker went down the tubes and was quickly followed by others. McDonnell Douglas turned against Fred after receiving 'threats' from German operators that would never buy McD aircraft again if they attempted to bail him out - which they were quite prepared to do. Midland Bank pulled the plug - quite viciously, as they tended to do and Fred was gone. So were his pilots, and cabin staff plus engineers and all.
In 1978/9 British Airways had 'no use' for their many Hamble trained pilots and many came onto the 'market'. BA offered to assist any airline if they could give the Hamble guys a job and I took eight of them. I was to discover that there were NO better trained pilots then - or since. None, but sadly Hamble has long gone. Overall by 1980 I had 50 odd pilots, and 9 Hamble pilots. ALL of the Hamble pilots are in the airlines this day, one or two are now Training Captains on the B744. I was proud to have them.
Later there came the downfall of travel companies, Horizon and Court Airlines, was one such example - more pilots and cabin staff available again. Then later we had Air Europe and IntaSun, more pilots, more cabin staff and so on and so on. Later there was BCal formed from British United and Caledonian, then new airlines came in and then another shortage of pilots arose.
Then the Gulf war came and passenger traffic dropped from 13m to 10.5m - more airlines down the tubes, Paramount, TEA - all were going at an arlarming rate. But then new airlines were formed again, and again and again............the same things were happening.
You see the point? It happens time after time. History repeats itself in the airline industry and always will. But never once, with perhaps the exception of Dan Air where there were exceptional circumstances, did pilots find that they were out of work for long periods. The idea of buying airlines for a £1 had been borne by the infamous David James and Dan Air suffered. But never a shortage of pilots for any length of time. Simply because new operations sprang up like the phoenix out of the ashes.
In my humble opinion, what has happened now is that the recession, that Virgin was guarding against, by RB's own admission, "we have to batten down the hatches till the recession is over", has been deepened suddenly by this barbaric act. In other words the attack on America created it's own recession! This has driven Virgin and others to offload equipment that was hurting them most - the B747 Classic. It was, in fact, probably a welcoming that they could have well done without, but it may well help them survive.
I am not privy to the sums involved but 600 pilots and cabin staff x their salaries is (£??,???,???) and seven(?) Classics x their lease rates is (£??,???,???) and now Virgin can consider their future as being sustainable - possibly! It had to be done or die.
The economics of running an airline are simple. It's Costs over Income - what's left over is profit! Hopefully! If it is negative you worry. Then you have trim the operation down - doing whatever it takes.
I am trying to demonstrate, without giving you too much to hang your hats on, that it has ALL happened before, and during ALL of that in the past Oxford, Perth, CASS and other Training centres were still busy putting people through training. CAFU for example, was at Stansted in the 80's and part of the 90's and getting a slot was very difficult. Unless you had your own TRE/IRE it was a case of booking up well in advance for your own pilots to get their renewals completed. It didn't change.
After the Gulf war the numbers picked up quickly to 12m pax in the first year, and back to 13m and 14m thereafter. Aircraft were hard to get from the leasing companies - who began to do well again. Pilots were hard to find too. Sponsorship by the majors was rife in middle 80's.
So there you are. History will again repeat itself. It will be tougher than before perhaps, but the airlines will come out the other side. Passengers have demonstrated over the years that they have short memories. Then their confidence soon returns.
If I were a wannabe again. And I wouldn't want to these days. I would think positively about your future in the industry. It will return re-newed and raring to go and very much in need of pilots. I have never in 24 years seen it any different.
The industry suffers just like other businesses do but you can't have life without aeroplanes and you can't have aeroplanes without pilots. 6 or 7 crews to each and every one.
The bounce back might be more difficult, it might be longer than usual but it will happen. How can it not?
Think long and hard about what you want to do. Perhaps you could take it in short strides, one thing at a time. But what you should not do is give up. That has never been an option. There is be no reason in my mind to think that now.
The above is fact, well I hope I didn't get anything wrong, and I cannot say that anyone should do this or do that - except giving up. The final decision is yours and yours alone.
Good luck.
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here here. great post infin. may take a while for consumer confidence to restore but it will. there will always be a need for pilots. lets just hope that this is a temporary downturn. cant help but think these announcements were a tad hasty...
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InFinRetirement Thank you for what I would say is an inspirational post - I am at the stage of embarking on a course within the next 4 months and have been plagued with doubts since last week, compounded by the daily headlines. What you say really steels my resolve. Cheers
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Well said IFR, the voice of temperance and experience. Sure, we all feel the chill winds of recession and the appalling New York terrorist attack keenly. But if you are starting your training now, maybe you might be coming on market just as the market starts it's up-turn. It would be no good shelving things and then risk missing the tide, empty handed bereft of the requisite licences while the jobs are being handed out.
It's cyclical nature is the only constant of this aviation industry. Yes, definitely have a plan 'B' and be prepared for a possibly long wait, but be ready, for the tide will surely turn. People will not stop flying for long, simple as that.
It's cyclical nature is the only constant of this aviation industry. Yes, definitely have a plan 'B' and be prepared for a possibly long wait, but be ready, for the tide will surely turn. People will not stop flying for long, simple as that.
I say there boy
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Thank you IFR! You've put a smile back on my face.
For me a recession is hopefully just an opportunity to instruct for a while to gain hours until the jobs return!
cheers!
foggy.
For me a recession is hopefully just an opportunity to instruct for a while to gain hours until the jobs return!
cheers!
foggy.
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Thanks IFR. It’s good to get a perspective from someone who has seen it all before, and I hope you’ve managed to calm a few nerves.
Rest assured though, with all the emotions and thoughts going round my head over the last week, giving up never even crossed my mind. So what if it takes another 3 years instead of 2, or 4 instead of 3. I simply can’t countenance a career doing anything else.
I’m just hoping I’ll be there in thirty years time, penning notes to wannabes, telling them not to worry – I’ve seen it all before.
Good luck to you all.
Rest assured though, with all the emotions and thoughts going round my head over the last week, giving up never even crossed my mind. So what if it takes another 3 years instead of 2, or 4 instead of 3. I simply can’t countenance a career doing anything else.
I’m just hoping I’ll be there in thirty years time, penning notes to wannabes, telling them not to worry – I’ve seen it all before.
Good luck to you all.
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Sadly as IFR has said, this industry runs in cycles. I thought up until last week that the industry was going in the right direction. However, there are lots of people already in the industry that will be badly affected. I hope those, who have mortgages to pay and families to provide for find another job soon.
It looks like im going to build as many hours as possible until this all blows over....foggy...howz about a race? First to 1000 hours? What do you say? Now theres something to brighten our day!
Homer....
It looks like im going to build as many hours as possible until this all blows over....foggy...howz about a race? First to 1000 hours? What do you say? Now theres something to brighten our day!
Homer....
Just for clarifcation Scroggs and I have been advising POSTPONING the start of expensive training for 3 - 6 months.
Yes the industry will bounce back. But guys with 200hrs and cheeky grin will be the very last to benefit. From what I saw of the early 90's recession the nadir of 1991/2 meant that guys with very low hours started getting hired reguarly by about 1995. 1996 was getting better and 1997/98 were the years when there really was a lag between demand and supply and those holding a CPL/IR were getting jobs with what seemed ease. By late 1998 supply had responded to demand.
All this by way of anecdotal insight watching lots of friends at the time.
The problem becomes acute when you graduate with high debt levels and low hours. The debt needs servicing and so with a lack of jobs you end up being forced to return to what you did prior to training. Or stacking shelves.
At the same time your IR is expiring and a renewal these days will cost you - what - £1,700.
You can't afford to fly so your skills - honed intensively - begin to deteriorate. Recruiters know this and are unlikley to be impressed with a CV stating 200hrs from 9 months ago. Even if they are the sim assessment is going to be a nightmare when you haven't handled for months.
You consider ducking off into instructing but suddenly there are fewer students as career orientated PPL see the market and decide to wait. Compounded by your coursemates thinking likewise and your canny flying school owner picking and choosing and paying accordingly.
Am I the only person who remembers flying instructors working just for the hours and no pay in 1994?
After a year or two of this hopelessness you are forced to give up renewing the IR and let it lapse. Servicing the debt is all you can manage and now with lapsed ratings and even an expiring Frzn ATPL your chances of riding the upturn are minimal. At the same time you are getting on in your desk job and starting to earn money that is very often impossible to abandon as you get older and get responsibilites.
You are now lost to the industry and bitter and twisted towards aviation in general.
I've seen all this happen.
I think it is only sound airmanship to advise caution at this time. Caution manifesting itself in delaying any of the big financial investments. Delaying. Not abandoning.
I hope this pans out well I really do. But, coming home tonight listening to Radio 4 news the 2nd item on the agenda was the perilous state of the airline industry. Thats one hell of an indication of the gravity of the situation in itself.
Fingers crossed. The canny will position themselves perfectly for the upturn. Just how they achieve that is a mystery to me though.
Good luck,
WWW
Yes the industry will bounce back. But guys with 200hrs and cheeky grin will be the very last to benefit. From what I saw of the early 90's recession the nadir of 1991/2 meant that guys with very low hours started getting hired reguarly by about 1995. 1996 was getting better and 1997/98 were the years when there really was a lag between demand and supply and those holding a CPL/IR were getting jobs with what seemed ease. By late 1998 supply had responded to demand.
All this by way of anecdotal insight watching lots of friends at the time.
The problem becomes acute when you graduate with high debt levels and low hours. The debt needs servicing and so with a lack of jobs you end up being forced to return to what you did prior to training. Or stacking shelves.
At the same time your IR is expiring and a renewal these days will cost you - what - £1,700.
You can't afford to fly so your skills - honed intensively - begin to deteriorate. Recruiters know this and are unlikley to be impressed with a CV stating 200hrs from 9 months ago. Even if they are the sim assessment is going to be a nightmare when you haven't handled for months.
You consider ducking off into instructing but suddenly there are fewer students as career orientated PPL see the market and decide to wait. Compounded by your coursemates thinking likewise and your canny flying school owner picking and choosing and paying accordingly.
Am I the only person who remembers flying instructors working just for the hours and no pay in 1994?
After a year or two of this hopelessness you are forced to give up renewing the IR and let it lapse. Servicing the debt is all you can manage and now with lapsed ratings and even an expiring Frzn ATPL your chances of riding the upturn are minimal. At the same time you are getting on in your desk job and starting to earn money that is very often impossible to abandon as you get older and get responsibilites.
You are now lost to the industry and bitter and twisted towards aviation in general.
I've seen all this happen.
I think it is only sound airmanship to advise caution at this time. Caution manifesting itself in delaying any of the big financial investments. Delaying. Not abandoning.
I hope this pans out well I really do. But, coming home tonight listening to Radio 4 news the 2nd item on the agenda was the perilous state of the airline industry. Thats one hell of an indication of the gravity of the situation in itself.
Fingers crossed. The canny will position themselves perfectly for the upturn. Just how they achieve that is a mystery to me though.
Good luck,
WWW
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You Know back when we americans decided to fight in the Gulf back in 91, they said it would last for years and there would be some 30000 dead. Well it lasted 6 mo total and less that 100 hours of ground fighting. Fewer that 200 dead. No body knows for sure what is going to happen in two days let alone a year or two down the road. Just buck up a little with that legendary British Stiff Upper Lip. This is not WW-II nor are these guys all that bright. These dim wits will be a whole lot easier to deal with that the Germans in WW-I and WW-II and the Soviets in the Cold war. These guys really did themselves in big time. You guys that are in training right now, finish, those of you that are thinking about it, well keep your eyes and ears open, in a couple of months things will look better if not in another week or two. We Americans will be back to normal in another week or so. This got us mad and when we get mad, we unite and do what has to be done. Its going to get fixed a lot faster that you would belive.
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Top post IFR, well timed and good to have a bit of balance on this forum. Worth also reading John Standen's post in
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimat...c&f=2&t=010942
PS
Shame he's not found work. Someone's loosing out big time there.
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimat...c&f=2&t=010942
PS
Shame he's not found work. Someone's loosing out big time there.
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Good post IFR, a viewpoint much needed at times like this.
For my tuppence worth, the industry has always been cyclical and always will be, granted it's worse at times like this.
But I truly believe it will come around again and now is a time to consolidate positions and not to panic. Have a pragmatic view of your own situations and how they fit the grand scheme of things and take measures accordingly i.e. fallback position if possible/necessary.
Truth is no-one knows what the outlook will settle down to be, which means it could be "better" (and I use that word cautiously) than many predictions at the moment, who knows !
If it means delaying a course for a while or as in my case maybe change the pace at which I progress down the modular route then so be it for a few months, let's give it a chance to see how things pan out.
Be realistic but also remain positive.
GB.
For my tuppence worth, the industry has always been cyclical and always will be, granted it's worse at times like this.
But I truly believe it will come around again and now is a time to consolidate positions and not to panic. Have a pragmatic view of your own situations and how they fit the grand scheme of things and take measures accordingly i.e. fallback position if possible/necessary.
Truth is no-one knows what the outlook will settle down to be, which means it could be "better" (and I use that word cautiously) than many predictions at the moment, who knows !
If it means delaying a course for a while or as in my case maybe change the pace at which I progress down the modular route then so be it for a few months, let's give it a chance to see how things pan out.
Be realistic but also remain positive.
GB.
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Hear Hear!
Good to see some positive words on this forum just when every post was looking very gloomy.
It is all very good comparing what happened in the past to what could happen now. Lets sit tight, ride the storm and see where we all stand in a few months before we say that the writing is on the wall.
MG
Good to see some positive words on this forum just when every post was looking very gloomy.
It is all very good comparing what happened in the past to what could happen now. Lets sit tight, ride the storm and see where we all stand in a few months before we say that the writing is on the wall.
MG
Guys. The lead item on the news this morning - BA job losses and the grounding o 20 aircraft. That about 200 spare pilots. Will BA actually lay them off. I don't see why not.
If they do then we already have over 300 jet rated pilots on the market in the UK. Which at least matches the likely requirements for the next 18 months at least. Therefore anyone entering ab initio now is virtually gauranteed to be unemployed for at least 6 months post graduation.
Are you talking to people just about to graduate? I am. To a man they are having all their interviews cancelled. All of them.
The doors are being slammed shut for Wannabes and there is no mistake about it.
Will it pick up in a years time? Hope so. Wouldn't bet £50k on it mind.
WWW
If they do then we already have over 300 jet rated pilots on the market in the UK. Which at least matches the likely requirements for the next 18 months at least. Therefore anyone entering ab initio now is virtually gauranteed to be unemployed for at least 6 months post graduation.
Are you talking to people just about to graduate? I am. To a man they are having all their interviews cancelled. All of them.
The doors are being slammed shut for Wannabes and there is no mistake about it.
Will it pick up in a years time? Hope so. Wouldn't bet £50k on it mind.
WWW
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IFR,
Forgive my ignorance, but surely this is a tad worse than the 'gulf-war', 'laker' situation ever was. I think you are being too optimistic. Look at the many thousands being laid off worldwide by this crisis, this is the single biggest blow the aviation community has ever faced. I have to agree with WWW's sentiments of wait and see, but I fear the situation will not improve for many, many years.
The talk of an upturn 'round the corner' surely is premature, what wannabes nead to hear is sound solid advice from people in the know (supposedly like you), before they shell out loads of money that they cannot afford to pay back.
Shame on you IFR, the bodies have not even been pulled out from the wreckage and already you forecast a climate of 'Oh it will pick up, I have seen it all before'
The truth is 'you have not' seen this before, the aviation community is left in tatters worldwide and in my opinion will not recover in the short term.
Forgive my ignorance, but surely this is a tad worse than the 'gulf-war', 'laker' situation ever was. I think you are being too optimistic. Look at the many thousands being laid off worldwide by this crisis, this is the single biggest blow the aviation community has ever faced. I have to agree with WWW's sentiments of wait and see, but I fear the situation will not improve for many, many years.
The talk of an upturn 'round the corner' surely is premature, what wannabes nead to hear is sound solid advice from people in the know (supposedly like you), before they shell out loads of money that they cannot afford to pay back.
Shame on you IFR, the bodies have not even been pulled out from the wreckage and already you forecast a climate of 'Oh it will pick up, I have seen it all before'
The truth is 'you have not' seen this before, the aviation community is left in tatters worldwide and in my opinion will not recover in the short term.
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IFR
Good to see a positive posting, but out of interest have you ever been sat around for years waiting for a letter or phone call?
I agree that the only way to guarantee failure is to give up, but I think that WWW is just trying to be realistic.
For all of you who are waiting for that letter or phone call, I spent years doing that in the early 90's, and worked illegally as an instructor in the States in the meantime. I just want to say to you to keep going, when it comes it will be worth it, it made me a better person for having to fight for it, and I appreciate every second they let me go flying.
Good to see a positive posting, but out of interest have you ever been sat around for years waiting for a letter or phone call?
I agree that the only way to guarantee failure is to give up, but I think that WWW is just trying to be realistic.
For all of you who are waiting for that letter or phone call, I spent years doing that in the early 90's, and worked illegally as an instructor in the States in the meantime. I just want to say to you to keep going, when it comes it will be worth it, it made me a better person for having to fight for it, and I appreciate every second they let me go flying.
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I applaud your post IFR. I totally agree with your testiment.
However, I also recognise the circumstances outlined by WWW. I myself qualified with a CPL/IR in 1990. I still recall receiving many positive letters from carriers in the late 1980's with virtual promises of jobs when I had completed my license. I also recall within months (following the Gulf crisis and subsequent recession) letters from the same companies asking me to write back when I had an ATPL and 1000 hrs on wide bodied jet to fly a Jetstream! It was grim but I remained with my old job, instructed in my spare time to gain experience and continued to apply for jobs.
In 1999 (at 36 yrs of age)I got my first two interviews and was made offers from both companies. One on a turboprop and the other a jet. I have been flying a jet for nearly 3 years and extremely pleased that I did not give up on my dream. Pilots more than any other occupation have a tendency to be pessimistic at times like these. Perhaps with just cause.
What I will say is that it boils down to how much you want to do the job. If you want to be a Pilot more than anything else then you will get that job! It may take a while but stick with it and continue to build hours, experience and contacts.
When all else fails... Perseverence prevails!
However, I also recognise the circumstances outlined by WWW. I myself qualified with a CPL/IR in 1990. I still recall receiving many positive letters from carriers in the late 1980's with virtual promises of jobs when I had completed my license. I also recall within months (following the Gulf crisis and subsequent recession) letters from the same companies asking me to write back when I had an ATPL and 1000 hrs on wide bodied jet to fly a Jetstream! It was grim but I remained with my old job, instructed in my spare time to gain experience and continued to apply for jobs.
In 1999 (at 36 yrs of age)I got my first two interviews and was made offers from both companies. One on a turboprop and the other a jet. I have been flying a jet for nearly 3 years and extremely pleased that I did not give up on my dream. Pilots more than any other occupation have a tendency to be pessimistic at times like these. Perhaps with just cause.
What I will say is that it boils down to how much you want to do the job. If you want to be a Pilot more than anything else then you will get that job! It may take a while but stick with it and continue to build hours, experience and contacts.
When all else fails... Perseverence prevails!