Wannabes and pilots, don't panic it will work out.
I have been thinking awhile about making comment on the subject of continuing pilot training.
I have been thinking too about what the short and long term effects of this tragedy are, and what subsequent problems face the airlines. My thoughts are mainly drawn from my own experience of running two airlines in the last 20 odd years, and what the effects of recession and war has meant in the past.
The first thing to say is that I respect the views expressed by Scroggs and WWW - and others. That doesn't mean that I have to agree with them. In most cases I don't.
In the 70's when I first started, I was 'advised' that it was the worst possible time to start and airline - but I didn't think so, but everyone says that. In 1977 when my first operation obtained it's AOC, Freddie Laker began operating his SKYTRAIN operation on the basis of making 50p per seat. About £300 maximum! Each way!! The GBP was riding high at around $2.38 and all charges to the airlines, as now, are always in USD. Then a couple of years later the £ dived, SKYTRAIN was wiped off the map, Laker went down the tubes and was quickly followed by others. McDonnell Douglas turned against Fred after receiving 'threats' from German operators that would never buy McD aircraft again if they attempted to bail him out - which they were quite prepared to do. Midland Bank pulled the plug - quite viciously, as they tended to do and Fred was gone. So were his pilots, and cabin staff plus engineers and all.
In 1978/9 British Airways had 'no use' for their many Hamble trained pilots and many came onto the 'market'. BA offered to assist any airline if they could give the Hamble guys a job and I took eight of them. I was to discover that there were NO better trained pilots then - or since. None, but sadly Hamble has long gone. Overall by 1980 I had 50 odd pilots, and 9 Hamble pilots. ALL of the Hamble pilots are in the airlines this day, one or two are now Training Captains on the B744. I was proud to have them.
Later there came the downfall of travel companies, Horizon and Court Airlines, was one such example - more pilots and cabin staff available again. Then later we had Air Europe and IntaSun, more pilots, more cabin staff and so on and so on. Later there was BCal formed from British United and Caledonian, then new airlines came in and then another shortage of pilots arose.
Then the Gulf war came and passenger traffic dropped from 13m to 10.5m - more airlines down the tubes, Paramount, TEA - all were going at an arlarming rate. But then new airlines were formed again, and again and again............the same things were happening.
You see the point? It happens time after time. History repeats itself in the airline industry and always will. But never once, with perhaps the exception of Dan Air where there were exceptional circumstances, did pilots find that they were out of work for long periods. The idea of buying airlines for a £1 had been borne by the infamous David James and Dan Air suffered. But never a shortage of pilots for any length of time. Simply because new operations sprang up like the phoenix out of the ashes.
In my humble opinion, what has happened now is that the recession, that Virgin was guarding against, by RB's own admission, "we have to batten down the hatches till the recession is over", has been deepened suddenly by this barbaric act. In other words the attack on America created it's own recession! This has driven Virgin and others to offload equipment that was hurting them most - the B747 Classic. It was, in fact, probably a welcoming that they could have well done without, but it may well help them survive.
I am not privy to the sums involved but 600 pilots and cabin staff x their salaries is (£??,???,???) and seven(?) Classics x their lease rates is (£??,???,???) and now Virgin can consider their future as being sustainable - possibly! It had to be done or die.
The economics of running an airline are simple. It's Costs over Income - what's left over is profit! Hopefully! If it is negative you worry. Then you have trim the operation down - doing whatever it takes.
I am trying to demonstrate, without giving you too much to hang your hats on, that it has ALL happened before, and during ALL of that in the past Oxford, Perth, CASS and other Training centres were still busy putting people through training. CAFU for example, was at Stansted in the 80's and part of the 90's and getting a slot was very difficult. Unless you had your own TRE/IRE it was a case of booking up well in advance for your own pilots to get their renewals completed. It didn't change.
After the Gulf war the numbers picked up quickly to 12m pax in the first year, and back to 13m and 14m thereafter. Aircraft were hard to get from the leasing companies - who began to do well again. Pilots were hard to find too. Sponsorship by the majors was rife in middle 80's.
So there you are. History will again repeat itself. It will be tougher than before perhaps, but the airlines will come out the other side. Passengers have demonstrated over the years that they have short memories. Then their confidence soon returns.
If I were a wannabe again. And I wouldn't want to these days. I would think positively about your future in the industry. It will return re-newed and raring to go and very much in need of pilots. I have never in 24 years seen it any different.
The industry suffers just like other businesses do but you can't have life without aeroplanes and you can't have aeroplanes without pilots. 6 or 7 crews to each and every one.
The bounce back might be more difficult, it might be longer than usual but it will happen. How can it not?
Think long and hard about what you want to do. Perhaps you could take it in short strides, one thing at a time. But what you should not do is give up. That has never been an option. There is be no reason in my mind to think that now.
The above is fact, well I hope I didn't get anything wrong, and I cannot say that anyone should do this or do that - except giving up. The final decision is yours and yours alone.
Good luck.