Right time to train (Merged 2011)
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Right time to train (Merged 2011)
We have been speaking a while back about the difficulties to get a pilot job for a new CPL (I know you like to call it "frozen ATPL"...) when entering the market.
I have been saying, after the 2008 huge recession, that some opportunities would pop up, and that even if I didn't beleive in this career choice for the next half century (fuel and other reasons), I was quite optimistic for the very short term. I use to say a year or two back that "times seem to be hard, but that's the best we will get from now on".
Somebody who started training in 2008, in the middle of the recession, would have made a smart move, as 2010 and 2011 have seen real opportunities coming up around, not for everybody, sure, but still... That's what I was thinking back then, and that's what I still think.
-First we had Susi air and their crash a few days back (one possibility to get your first job if you want to cross the world and fly real airplanes) .
-AA then got into some difficulties.
-India and China economy are slowing down.
-We are experiencing in the west a tricky debt crisis (I know some people think it is convenient to call it Euro crisis, but don't be fooled, that's really a whole werstern world debt crisis)
-Fuel doesn't want to go bellow $100 a baril.
Individualy, those are only signs, but as a whole that's a clear message which could be, for the ones who have to pay for their CPL:
TIME TO SAVE YOUR MONEY AND AVOID TRAINING.
You have been warned.
I have been saying, after the 2008 huge recession, that some opportunities would pop up, and that even if I didn't beleive in this career choice for the next half century (fuel and other reasons), I was quite optimistic for the very short term. I use to say a year or two back that "times seem to be hard, but that's the best we will get from now on".
Somebody who started training in 2008, in the middle of the recession, would have made a smart move, as 2010 and 2011 have seen real opportunities coming up around, not for everybody, sure, but still... That's what I was thinking back then, and that's what I still think.
-First we had Susi air and their crash a few days back (one possibility to get your first job if you want to cross the world and fly real airplanes) .
-AA then got into some difficulties.
-India and China economy are slowing down.
-We are experiencing in the west a tricky debt crisis (I know some people think it is convenient to call it Euro crisis, but don't be fooled, that's really a whole werstern world debt crisis)
-Fuel doesn't want to go bellow $100 a baril.
Individualy, those are only signs, but as a whole that's a clear message which could be, for the ones who have to pay for their CPL:
TIME TO SAVE YOUR MONEY AND AVOID TRAINING.
You have been warned.
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Thanks KAG i won't be adhering to your advice but others might. The problem for me is that i am too far along however if i was starting out now i definitely wouldn't start.
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KAG is right, except, avoid training in aviation, not in other fields...
the world still need mechanic, doctor, cashiers, .....get a training where you don't need to pay huge loan back.
Pilot is not a profession but a hobby, you just need to see the line of desperate pilots ready to give their money just for a few miserable hours to fill their empty logbook(well,I was like them).
the world still need mechanic, doctor, cashiers, .....get a training where you don't need to pay huge loan back.
Pilot is not a profession but a hobby, you just need to see the line of desperate pilots ready to give their money just for a few miserable hours to fill their empty logbook(well,I was like them).
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As a wannabe for already 5 years it's hard but it most probably is true. It makes me angry and sad at the same time realising I probably never fly as a daily job. I just can't deny that there is a huge problem in the (airline) world.
But hey, we still have the PPL and maybe even IFR we can go for
But hey, we still have the PPL and maybe even IFR we can go for
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I get the idea. Everyone else cancels their training. KAG gets the job. Nice try 
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is it really that hard?! i mean, i'm in australia right now sweating my *** off to get money and i'll start at the end of next year the licenses, somewhere, it doesn't matter now, but the point is that i'm so impressed that KAG warned us NOT to start the training and apart all the passionate people in this forum they still keep saying not do it!
it's a little sad but quite sure it's true, never mind. have you got a dream? just follow it
it's a little sad but quite sure it's true, never mind. have you got a dream? just follow it
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Don't give up yet
The fuel costs mentioned here are nothing like the fuel crisis of the 70s. The automotive and combustion engine industries are barely recognisable from what they were 10/15 years ago, the aviation industry will and is following suit in terms of focus on economy, efficiency and profitability.
The Chinese economy is slowing, yes, but only now that it is the second largest in the world, and is due to pass the US in the next decade, so no surprise it's slowing,
We will continue to need pilots as much as the mechanics and doctors mentioned in a previous post. Western companies are investing millions of dollars in China and India on a weekly basis. These companies spend thousands of dollars every month flying their people to/from China and India, and products will continue to pour out of these countries too.
The fat lady hasn’t even got dressed, let alone drawn breath to start her song.
The Chinese economy is slowing, yes, but only now that it is the second largest in the world, and is due to pass the US in the next decade, so no surprise it's slowing,
We will continue to need pilots as much as the mechanics and doctors mentioned in a previous post. Western companies are investing millions of dollars in China and India on a weekly basis. These companies spend thousands of dollars every month flying their people to/from China and India, and products will continue to pour out of these countries too.
The fat lady hasn’t even got dressed, let alone drawn breath to start her song.
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ShyTorque: I get the idea. Everyone else cancels their training. KAG gets the job. Nice try
I appreciate the humor
However to be clear: I am not sure a new CPL holder could be in the situation I am right now, but who knows...
You wrote: "cancel their training", well I have not said exactly that, the word "project" is missing. Project means you haven't started yet, and you are still at the decision making process step.
And this is a general statement I am doing, of course many exceptions apply.
We are supposed to be free, not to be blind.
My young padawan: tell me more about China, it would be interesting to learn some more from you...
You said:The Chinese economy is slowing, yes, but only now that it is the second largest in the world, and is due to pass the US in the next decade, so no surprise it's slowing.
Whatever the reason, it is still slowing down.
The fuel costs mentioned here are nothing like the fuel crisis of the 70s. Nothing like the 70s... Except we are in 2011. In 41 years maybe something have changed? What do you think? More or less fuel reserve than 41 years ago?
I appreciate the humor
However to be clear: I am not sure a new CPL holder could be in the situation I am right now, but who knows...
You wrote: "cancel their training", well I have not said exactly that, the word "project" is missing. Project means you haven't started yet, and you are still at the decision making process step.
And this is a general statement I am doing, of course many exceptions apply.
We are supposed to be free, not to be blind.
My young padawan: tell me more about China, it would be interesting to learn some more from you...
You said:The Chinese economy is slowing, yes, but only now that it is the second largest in the world, and is due to pass the US in the next decade, so no surprise it's slowing.
Whatever the reason, it is still slowing down.
The fuel costs mentioned here are nothing like the fuel crisis of the 70s. Nothing like the 70s... Except we are in 2011. In 41 years maybe something have changed? What do you think? More or less fuel reserve than 41 years ago?
Last edited by KAG; 1st Dec 2011 at 15:34.
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Well here is some news to cheer you up a bit.
At least one major UK training provider is sending people who only 15 months ago had little or no flying experience at all, for interviews with at least 2 major UK airlines and a one major Middle Eastern carrier.
In some cases those pilots may only have 14 days between completing their I.R's and attending for interviews for job placements on airliners starting early in the new year.
The number of placements is significant.
You see, and as I have been saying for quite a long time, it is all about what you as a customer want, and what the end goal employers want. Only by understanding these factors can you realistically come up with a game plan that stands a good chance of success.
If you have gone about this in a format that the employers are demanding, then now is in fact a very good time to be graduating from the right establishments. Whether that will be the case in 2 or 3 years time, I couldn't predict, but I would still suggest that is the where the smart money goes.
At least one major UK training provider is sending people who only 15 months ago had little or no flying experience at all, for interviews with at least 2 major UK airlines and a one major Middle Eastern carrier.
In some cases those pilots may only have 14 days between completing their I.R's and attending for interviews for job placements on airliners starting early in the new year.
The number of placements is significant.
You see, and as I have been saying for quite a long time, it is all about what you as a customer want, and what the end goal employers want. Only by understanding these factors can you realistically come up with a game plan that stands a good chance of success.
If you have gone about this in a format that the employers are demanding, then now is in fact a very good time to be graduating from the right establishments. Whether that will be the case in 2 or 3 years time, I couldn't predict, but I would still suggest that is the where the smart money goes.
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Yeah Bealzebub, it shows exactly the post-recession opportunities I was talking about in my first post just above. Please allow me to quote myself, the post #1, at the very top of this thread:
Those pilot students haven't started training after the first of december 2011 right? Because that's about those kind of person we are talking about in this thread.
Cheer up future pilot students? The training industry is already doing it, I don't beleive this is the pprune task.
Somebody who started training in 2008, in the middle of the recession, would have made a smart move, as 2010 and 2011 have seen real opportunities coming up around, not for everybody, sure, but still...
Those pilot students haven't started training after the first of december 2011 right? Because that's about those kind of person we are talking about in this thread.
Cheer up future pilot students? The training industry is already doing it, I don't beleive this is the pprune task.
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Those pilot students haven't started training after the first of december 2011 right?
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have already been pre-selected for placement in early 2013.
This job, I think, it's not worth any more.Better stay at home and let them kill eachover for their dream job.
I spent a lot of money and what I see is more guys ready to pay to work, fly for peanuts, and just willing to be screwed, and they all bend over and over just for a jet position(push button job).
I let you know that I have spent some times in Asia, paid the airline for line training, and now I am back from the begining looking for my first paid job, and need to maintain this stupid Airbus rating, and no one want me, because my license is old of 3 months, and I am sick to pay and I can not even fly something smaller, because my SEP and multi are expired. I can not renew all ratings plus medical,...
Have fun losing your money.!!if you train now, you will be sorry in 2 years.
believe me, it s much better to learn a real job like carpenter, mechanic, office work, IT, plumbing, doctor, vet, lawyer,... than trying to be a pilot and feel sorry when the entire market aviation industry will be very low cost, or pay to fly, or out of business like astreus and others.
There is simply no future, and no return on investment really.
Just look at bloomberg and TV once a day, and you will understand what I am talking about..
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because my SEP ar multi are expired
Get a job even if it's stocking shelves at your local supermarket and keep current. Something will turn up!
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it doesn't mean they will have a job, and doesn't mean they will be paid.
Far too many people fail to adapt to the realities of the market, believing that they can save a buck here and there and the market will adapt to suit them.
Buying type ratings and line training from some dodgy outfit in a country whose airlines are normally internationally blacklisted, may well be an option for some, however It is not a resource that many companies are likely to find attractive.
People are taking a very significant risk, and they need to research what they want from their own goals. They need to look where their target employers are recruiting from. They then need to consider how they might set about entering those markets.
These are "wannabe" forums. It is a very difficult marketplace. There are far too many would be aspirants for the number of realistic placements available, always are and always have been. It is an expensive pursuit, and always has been. It is a marketplace that expands and contracts with the seasons. It is an evolving marketplace no matter how unattractive some may find that evolution.
For the resourceful, adaptable, intelligent, and lucky, there are routes into airline flying. Those pilots are paid and they have careers that do enable them to repay their training investments in a relatively short time. That I can be sure of, because I work with them. however it is small section of the overall market.
Personally, I don't care if people habit these forums to fulfill a fantasy. I don't care if they train, don't train, waste money, fail or succeed. From a position of experience within the industry, I can tell you the way it is in this segment of that industry. The advice is free, so take it or leave it. I would however aver that it is correct.
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i have wanted to be a pilot now for 2 years but i was an apprentice electrician so i thought i would stick out my apprenticeship and get qualified. Now that i am qualified i am looking back into getting my CPL but many posts i have read have stated not to take it up as a career and after i went for my first introductory flight today and my flight instructor even said he no longer fly's full time as he said it was too hard to get a job. I now don't know what to do as i do not want to be an electrician for rest of my life.