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Is pilot still considered as a viable career?

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Is pilot still considered as a viable career?

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Old 5th Apr 2011, 09:48
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Is pilot still considered as a viable career?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to their highest since 2008 on Monday, with Brent surging above $121 a barrel as Nigerian election delays and a short-lived strike in Gabon joined a list of geopolitical supply concerns.
Today fuel passed the $120 mark, the one at which there no more benefit for the companies, the one from which airlines start to go to bankruptcy.

I have been following this problem for a long time, and if you take the time to look at my first post, 2007, it was to announce an up coming fuel crisis, and it was to warn the wannabes to avoid to start a career, or at least think about it... We were end of 2007... Most of the posters didn't beleive it, but less than one year later occured the worst aviation crisis, directly linked to the 2008 fuel crisis.

Among the wannabes, and experienced pilot, do you beleive it is possible for a young guy in 2011 to choose pilot as a life career?
Can you guaranty the young pilot apprentice will have a job for the next 40 years?
Is the fuel issue still taboo among the flight crews, the airlines, the wannabe at their flight schools, and the politicians?
We have officially reached a fuel plateau production, and any economic growth demanding more fuel is from now on impossible. Is this information well known by any pilot training candidate, or is that still considered a legend used by the pessimistic individuals and green peace to announce the end of the world?
What is your (wannabes) honest position on the subject? Do you think:
- "well, I will try we will see", or
-"that's all bull****, how our life could change that's just impossible we have used fuel as far as I can remember", or
-"it's a passion anyway, I will go as far as I can but I know I will have to change job at one point or an other, if I ever find one"?

Concerning the training and manufacture industry that has been forecasted pilot shortage for the last 30 years, do you still beleive in it? Are you still waiting for it to happen?

What motivates you to do your training today? When I did mine, we didn't reach the fuel plateau production yet, but now that it's the case, I don't beleive I would choose this career if I were 20 years old in 2011. I would choose an interesting job and buy a glider.

So, is the subject taboo or can we speak about it?
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 10:15
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Wannabes are like lemmings they don't think about these things and no amount of logic or reason will prevent them from trying to pursue their dream. They can worry about the debt and financial consequences later on when they have joined the hopeless and ever growing ranks of tens of thousands of unemployed low hour pilots worldwide.
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 10:25
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Is pilot still considered as a viable career? Clear answer : NO
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 15:46
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Qantas cuts jobs and flights as fuel costs bite

Matt O'Sullivan March 30, 2011.

Qantas has stepped up its efforts to combat high jet fuel prices by announcing cuts to management jobs, retirement of older aircraft and a reduction of domestic and international flights.
Yes, thanks for your answer. I guess you are experienced pilots.

But what you, wannabes think right now? What a 20 years old is expecting from our industry? Do you think you will retire as a pilot 40 years from now? What the training industry has been telling you? Did you really get informed about the fuel situation on earth? Do you really think you shouldn't take it into account? Do you expect to find a pilot job to reimbourse your loan?
What makes you decide to pay for your training in 2011, when 10 years from now (much before maybe, by 2014 many analyst are saying) we won't have enough fuel for the aviation as we know it today, the mass transportation one?
Do you really understand that from now on (since end of 2007 in fact), only a recession can calm the fuel price down, and nobody in our industry has a growth plan with a fuel at $120 like it is today?
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 16:08
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It certainly is not. The best thing would be look for an alternate career and most probably do flying as a hobby.
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 16:30
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◦Oil priced at $125 bbl would result in a reduction of nearly $5.8 billion or 1.5 percent in total U.S. business travel spending and roughly 700,000 trips forecast between 2011 and 2013.
◦Oil priced at $150 bbl would result in a reduction of nearly $6.9 billion or 1.8 percent in total U.S. business travel spending and roughly 1.8 million trips forecast between 2011 and 2013.
◦Oil priced at $200 bbl, the extreme shock scenario, would result in a reduction of almost $9 billion or about 2.5 percent in total U.S. business travel spending and roughly 2.7 million trips forecast between 2011 and 2013.


I beleive you are right, but there is not thousands of young person making loan and paying for their training as we speak?
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 16:33
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I think you can only judge this if you are a pilot. I'm not one of them so I can't really judge. Many wannabe's are too much looking on one side of the medal...
Oil prices will only go up. Which means flight training costs go up and more and more airlines are getting in trouble paying the bill. You don't have to study economy to see the link to the ATPL student.
I'm getting more and more convinced that an other career is the best way to keep flying fun and affordable (without going down in debts as a student).
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 16:41
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US Airways said its fourth-quarter system capacity would be down as much as 2 percent from previously expected levels, and Delta said it would scale back capacity both internationally and in the US in the second half, continue retiring less fuel-efficient planes, while cutting capacity to Japan by 15 percent to 20 percent through May. Southwest Airlines Co has raised ticket prices.

Air Canada will suspend unprofitable route, and continue to adjust fares and fuel surcharges in response to market conditions.

Malaysian Airline System (MAS) managing director Azmil Zahruddin best summed up the situation in a Reuters interview on March 17, “Demand is still not as strong as what it was… I think with what happened in Japan, the indirect ramifications are uncertain yet.

“And there are still question marks over short- to medium-term demand. That coupled with high fuel prices is something to be concerned about.”

Yes Poeli, I think it would be wise.
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 17:10
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From my point of view, there will likely always be a need for some pilots. The price of oil may well have a long term impact on employment, but alternatives will likely be found. I don't think any manufacturer will really look too seriously at alternatives until they abosutely have to. Technology is moving forwards and the whole world isn't just going to stop because of the price of oil.

Things obviously don't look good for newly qualified pilots but it really isn't easy to predict what it might be like in 10-20 years time.

As a 26 year old on a distance learning ATPL course, I'm under no illusion of gaining emplyment the second I finish commercial training. In fact if I never work as a pilot it isn't the end of the world, and my motivation is not just the thought of sitting in the right hand seat of a shiny jet. I enjoy flying, and would like to have a go at flying as many different types as possible. I would love to fly for a living but depending on what happens in the next 5-10 years that may never happen.

I'm sure that even if an economical alternative to oil was found that the future airline pilots may well be treated more like bus drivers, with modest salaries and mediocre terms and conditions. It may even get to the point where none other than the most hardcore will be willing to accept those terms and conditions as the current volume of wannabe's remains so high. They have to be discouraged somehow!

Aviation as a hobby is certainly expensive but I still think it's worth it. Ask me again in 5 years!

Last edited by The500man; 5th Apr 2011 at 17:20.
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 17:15
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Qantas has other issues than fuel prices. That's a convenient smoke screen for them.
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 17:27
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Virgin Blue warned last week that its losses will blow out to as much as $150 million in the second half due to the impact of the natural disasters and high fuel prices.



You are optimistic in saying the world won't stop because of the fuel prices.
Do you know how was the world before the fuel economic world?
And saying we will find something to replace it, this is misunderstanding 2 things: the human genius in finding good ideas, and our economy based on free fuel available for us.
No idea, no genius can find an alternative to what is free an available.
You speak about technology moving forward, this technology, the modern one, is based on the fuel economy. What about our technology in a real recession scenario?


As we noted in the print edition in March, "the price of oil has had an unnerving ability to blow up the world economy." The economic implications of a major oil price shock—and the corresponding increases in the prices of everything that has to be made with oil or transported to market using oil—shouldn't be underestimated. The political ramifications of $200 bbl oil could be even more serious. So I'm going to keep hoping that we don't see any sort of nightmare spike in oil prices. If we do, the economic health of the airlines could end up being the least of our worries.
Oil and the economy: The 2011 oil shock | The Economist
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 19:51
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You are optimistic in saying the world won't stop because of the fuel prices.
There are plenty of doom mongers with limited imagination but the fact is we won't all die because of a single finite resource such as oil becomming expensive.

And saying we will find something to replace it, this is misunderstanding 2 things: the human genius in finding good ideas, and our economy based on free fuel available for us.
No idea, no genius can find an alternative to what is free an available.
Free and available fuel? There was an aircraft designed not too long ago which flew for 24 hours utilising only solar power, which arguably is free. The point is that any new technology could be completely new. The fact no one has yet come up with an easy alternative to oil does not mean there isn't one, but may well be an indication that people were happy to be dependent on oil, or profit from it.

The transition may be painful and what comes next may not resemble what came before but there will be something. There are already organisations working on alternatives, and tomorrow someone could come up with something which makes the difference.

As oil effects all industry you can bet there will be great incentive for innovative thinkers to come together to come up with an alternative.

Whether young people who want to be pilots are willing to take a chance on an uncertain future is quite probably purely situational. If you need to take out a loan, and pay to fly, your career may not last very long, but I think the people to whom this applies know that already. For everyone else they already have a back-up plan.
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 20:38
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Is a pilot still considered as a viable career?

There is more to it than just the oil prices.

Right now, the market in Europe is saturated. There are a large amount of Low Cost carriers and long established 'legacy carriers' all competing in a well served and condensed market that has seen profitability slashed down to the bone. Coupled with that, is a regulatory base that is ever increasing, which not only further increases operational costs, it makes the market very hostile to new carriers as well as the establishment of new long term routes / city pairs.

Within this, flight crews are caught and as such the base for increased T&C's becomes harder and harder and available jobs become fewer and far between.

I could in fact go into a dissertaion here, but wont.

Wannabes are like lemmings
Indeed they are. They are going into a career base that is getting tougher, with influences that are way past the interest levels of the FTO's selling a freshly minted blue book and are doing this with no concept of the industry, no research and no understanding of the wider picture apart from the marketing that the FTO's pump out to secure the revenue from the wannabes who are being sold an illusion.

Last edited by stuckgear; 7th Apr 2011 at 02:41. Reason: grammar
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Old 5th Apr 2011, 21:49
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I am a current wannabe, I've always dreamt of flying as a career, and I’m currently starting down the modular route of training. I decided to go down this route as I can limit my debt, pretty much to zero, at least until CPL/IR. At that point I’d hope to fund pretty much all of that cost too.

The topic of fuel pricing has been a concern from the offset of training for me. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that it’s probably the major contributing factor to rising training costs. My view is that I will never bank on a career in this industry, but I will try my level best to get there providing the circumstances are right, and on the way I will try to stack the odds in my favour. By this I mean financially managing my training as to limit debt, and to try and keep a logical and level head on my shoulders regarding how far I am willing to go in order to get the career I dream of. I’m not willing to bankrupt myself and risk my sanity in the process of endlessly throwing money away trying to make flying a career.

I think to answer your original question, I would fall under the, “well, I will try we will see" bracket. I am under no illusions about this industry, but the future is completely unpredictable. I will crack on with my training, alongside my current career and see what happens. If I end up getting some lucky break flying scenic tours in Africa, or somehow land a job on a flight deck then so be it. If fuel becomes a problem and training becomes way too costly and the job market becomes much more turbulent than it already is, then flying will remain a very expensive but enjoyable hobby.
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Old 6th Apr 2011, 12:23
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The 500man, I agree, we won't all die because of the fuel price. Meanwhile it was not my point. I know "viable" is kind of a biological term, but I don't speak about a feotus, a human being, or even a plant. I speak about the pilot career and the relevance to choose it as its own for a young person in April 2011.


Stuckgear, you are right, fuel is no the only issue for a future pilot career, but I beleive this is both the most important and the most underestimated one.


Gaz45, it seems you know where you go.


BA raises fuel surcharge by a further £10 on long-haul flights
By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 12:31 PM on 6th April 2011

Travellers received another financial blow this morning as British Airways announced an increase to its fuel surcharge on long-haul flights.

The price hike will come into force on Friday.
Economy class passengers will be charged an extra £10, while those flying in business or first class will see an extra £20 added to the cost of their ticket.
Does it sound familar? Deja vue?




By Scott Cendrowski, writer-reporter April 4, 2011: 3:23 PM ET, CNN
Most of the major airlines have also decided to cut back growth plans -- what the industry calls capacity expansion -- for 2011. United Continental, American Airlines, and US Airways have all said they've trimmed planned expansions.

Which brings us back to the déjà vu moment: airlines aren't likely strong enough today to post profits with crude topping $100 a barrel for any extended period.
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Old 7th Apr 2011, 06:28
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some guys told me recently that if they don't find a job after their training , they will look to fly smaller planes like kingAir, Citation, LearJet. duh!!!

Guys, you make me laugh. there is no job in aviation, size doesn't matter.

when I mean job, I don't mean pay to fly, fly for a packet of biscuits, fly for 300 bucks a month living in a tent or in van,... I mean a real pilot job with a a REAL salary.

Last edited by captainsuperstorm; 7th Apr 2011 at 07:11.
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Old 8th Apr 2011, 12:35
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G-Rich,

Like most you miss the oil industries dirty little secret - refining capacity.

1970's refineries worked at 75/76% capacity. Quarter of the plant was always available for short term spikes/maintenance/knocking to the ground and rebuilding or modernising.

Now, between bean counters, just in time processes, environmental laws, rulings, zoning and nimbyism no new capacity has been created in years and excess plant capacity worldwide has been small, single figure percentages.

There isn't anywhere left to process new or old fuels in industrial quantities irrespective of demand, irrespective of price. So one part of the oil industry is desperate for demand to drop just to give them a breather to take some fractioning units off line for maintenance and modernisation. There's a generation's worth of new design just been sitting on hold.

It's also worth thinking through the strategic implications of a natural disaster or terrorism hitting a major refining area. One way or another loads of oil but it's a heavily constricted and inherently weak supply chain.
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Old 8th Apr 2011, 13:28
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As one who in the past owned five flight schools and a charter OC may I make some observations?
Firstly a statement which judging by the threads on this post many will have trouble beliving. All our grads who wanted to fly for a living have done so! How did this happy state of affaires come about? Firstley, my wife and I had a policy of hiring our own grads whenever we could, some did not make the cut, not based on their piloting abilities but more on their demonstrated attitudes and deportment, ie no smokers or cronic complainers {there seem to be no shortage of these on PPrune!}
Secondly we directed them to the slots in aviation that we thought would suit them, such as Survey, Floats, Corporate,Airlines, Medivac, fire bombing and any of the other slots that in Canada we are fortunate to have, unlike the EU and UK who seem to be bent on destroying anything which isnt airline. We also tried to turn out grads who could look after the aircraft when away from base, Im totally amazed that some schools turn out grads who cant even tie down an aircraft or do basic maintainance in the field. On this subject when potential employers phoned rarely would they ask about the pilots ability to fly, rather they would want to know if the pilot could be left to manage the aircraft. The other point is that we tried to place them in jobs which have a future, by this I mean the following, in what areas does the aircraft have a firm future? lets see now, will Canada ever have roads going way North? NO! Will the small Northern comunities ever have enough doctors, medical facilities, will survey ever be done totally by satalites or prospectors on foot? NO, Will tourists walk miles through the bush to go hunting/fishing?NO! Is domestic short haul flying under presure from other forms of travel? Not in Canada, {Our rail sytem has been totally trashed} but Im one of the many who when in the EU take the train rather than the airlines if its under 500 miles.
So where does this lead us to? How about looking around the world and moving somewhere in an area where the aircraft is not in danger of being replaced by high speed rail or other forms of travel, which in the case of most of the wanabees in the EU means packing ones bags and moving out, there will still be long haul, I doubt there will ever be a tunnel under the Atlantic.
The irony these days is that in Canada various provincial governments are getting into flight training, {and making a total cock up of it by the way} and are directing all there training efforts towards an airline path, in the mean time jobs in the other 75% of aviation go unfilled or finish up hiring the wrong pilots.So, to sum up, if one wants to stay home in the UK or EU ones chances of a full time flying job are pretty slim, so look around and go where the aircraft will be around for a while, will it be easy? NO, do we in Canada and other parts of the world have too many wanabees? Yes we do, but at least the prospects are there and so far we have avoided the P2F mess.
Just as an end note, back in the fifties I was about to start pilot training in the British military, then a White paper came out which destroyed much of the industy in the UK, I took my option and went elswhere,{Got some very good advice on this from a brother in law Bomber Command vet} lived in three Comonwealth countries and others, never looked back, good luck to all of you trying it!Its a bit like real estate, Location, Location, Location!

Last edited by clunckdriver; 8th Apr 2011 at 15:53.
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Old 8th Apr 2011, 14:49
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Milton1995, the sanctimony is humorous; There is a line between optimism and rank stupidity and from an observational point of view, many wannabes drift, and have drifted considerably away from the line of optimism.

'caught the flying bug' ? You really want to base your future on sentimentality? The line of 'caught the flying bug' is what is inherently dangerous in pursuing a career in aviation. It is a business. You, as a pilot, are a commodity.

As cluckdriver pointed out, you *will* need to up and relocate on a moments notice to get yourself a job, not just once but many times in your aviation working life. BA wont be knocking your down down begging you to be a Captain on a 744.


There are many, many on this forum that have many, many years and experience and those that impart their wisdom of experience and years in the industry are doing *you* wannabe's a favour by giving you the advice *YOU* need to make the *right* decisions not for any payment but the reward of helping those who are now in the place they were before. Thanks, but the experienced don't need yours or the 'optimists' 'respect', the ones who are thinking that they amid all the many thousands are one of the gifted ones.

You have it back to front.

Experienced industry professionals earning your respect ? *You* need to have respect for those that have been through it and are giving you the information you need to make effective decisions. If you cannot absorb situational information, your career as a pilot will never happen, no matter how optimistic you are or how 'bad you caught the bug'.
If WWW and others give you advice, listen to it. Have the respect for those that have been there seen it done it, gone through it, going through it, made the mistakes before, as a group, they don't need to 'gain' wannabes respect.

You've just illustrated clunkdrivers point here:

some did not make the cut, not based on their piloting abilities but more on their demonstrated attitudes and deportment

Last edited by stuckgear; 8th Apr 2011 at 18:12. Reason: spelling as usual!
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Old 8th Apr 2011, 15:14
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Milton, that's an excellent post by Stuckgear. And I would be very cautious about putting "life and soul into aviation".

There is some excellent advice here, it may come across as negative, but that is maybe just because there isn't a great deal of positivity generally! Consider it industry situational awareness that should be food for thought before any life and soul commitment.

And beware the "flying bug" - it will become a job quicker than you think! It's more "lifestyle" these days, especially with the present generation of bonus driven management.

All the best
JB
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