From my point of view, there will likely always be a need for some pilots. The price of oil may well have a long term impact on employment, but alternatives will likely be found. I don't think any manufacturer will really look too seriously at alternatives until they abosutely have to. Technology is moving forwards and the whole world isn't just going to stop because of the price of oil.
Things obviously don't look good for newly qualified pilots but it really isn't easy to predict what it might be like in 10-20 years time.
As a 26 year old on a distance learning ATPL course, I'm under no illusion of gaining emplyment the second I finish commercial training. In fact if I never work as a pilot it isn't the end of the world, and my motivation is not just the thought of sitting in the right hand seat of a shiny jet. I enjoy flying, and would like to have a go at flying as many different types as possible. I would love to fly for a living but depending on what happens in the next 5-10 years that may never happen.
I'm sure that even if an economical alternative to oil was found that the future airline pilots may well be treated more like bus drivers, with modest salaries and mediocre terms and conditions. It may even get to the point where none other than the most hardcore will be willing to accept those terms and conditions as the current volume of wannabe's remains so high. They have to be discouraged somehow!
Aviation as a hobby is certainly expensive but I still think it's worth it. Ask me again in 5 years!
