Was it the same? When you were having your flight training
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Aventhusiast
The second thread you have quoted is a bit of a hysteria fest. Can I say that as someone who actually is working here at FR that no one has been laid off. Not one. Ryanair would like people to go on unpaid leave over the winter as they are cutting some seasonal capacity. I was in the simulator centre very recently and they are still conducting interviews. That's the short factual version
Unfortunately as soon as the name of our company is mentioned in any topic on PPRuNe mass hysteria breaks out, usually having no basis in things as frivolous as facts !
Also don't forget that the US airlines were laying off a kitrillion people after 9/11 too, but FR and EZY continued expansion, rapidly in the case of FR. Although we live in an international (I F%@%in' hate that Global world) job market, and the effects of Globalization (Damn, can't escape it) are clear to see with the subprime crisis/credit crunch, don't always make the mistakes of comparing what's happening to the US airline industry to what is happening in Europe. The US industry seems to have been a basket case for a long time, some of them weren't even making money when oil was $10 a barrel! You have to ask yourself if it was really the oil price that has triggered these cuts or a more tangled web of reasons.....
Now.
Will the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse ride into town if the Oil price continues to rise. Possibly, Probably! Will you get run over by a bus crossing the street tomorrow?, possibly. No one knows the answers if they were being honest. There ARE some very dark clouds on the horizon right now in this industry, the world may change forever. Or it may not. It may be a cycle, and a very serious one, just like the 2-3 years after 9/11 were.
I do know as someone who started their training not so long after 9/11, when I was being told the industry was irreparably damaged, and I could never possibly hope to get a job ever again, that by the time I was finished I found myself in a market as awash with employment as one could ever hope to find given the supply and demand economics of the fATPL job market.
To quote Harry: The question is, do you feel lucky? Well do ya!?, Punk!
On a final note: This is an especialy dangerous time to burden yourself with debt, and never, ever, pay up front for training. It's spectacularly unpretty when it goes wrong
The second thread you have quoted is a bit of a hysteria fest. Can I say that as someone who actually is working here at FR that no one has been laid off. Not one. Ryanair would like people to go on unpaid leave over the winter as they are cutting some seasonal capacity. I was in the simulator centre very recently and they are still conducting interviews. That's the short factual version
Unfortunately as soon as the name of our company is mentioned in any topic on PPRuNe mass hysteria breaks out, usually having no basis in things as frivolous as facts !
Also don't forget that the US airlines were laying off a kitrillion people after 9/11 too, but FR and EZY continued expansion, rapidly in the case of FR. Although we live in an international (I F%@%in' hate that Global world) job market, and the effects of Globalization (Damn, can't escape it) are clear to see with the subprime crisis/credit crunch, don't always make the mistakes of comparing what's happening to the US airline industry to what is happening in Europe. The US industry seems to have been a basket case for a long time, some of them weren't even making money when oil was $10 a barrel! You have to ask yourself if it was really the oil price that has triggered these cuts or a more tangled web of reasons.....
Now.
Will the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse ride into town if the Oil price continues to rise. Possibly, Probably! Will you get run over by a bus crossing the street tomorrow?, possibly. No one knows the answers if they were being honest. There ARE some very dark clouds on the horizon right now in this industry, the world may change forever. Or it may not. It may be a cycle, and a very serious one, just like the 2-3 years after 9/11 were.
I do know as someone who started their training not so long after 9/11, when I was being told the industry was irreparably damaged, and I could never possibly hope to get a job ever again, that by the time I was finished I found myself in a market as awash with employment as one could ever hope to find given the supply and demand economics of the fATPL job market.
To quote Harry: The question is, do you feel lucky? Well do ya!?, Punk!
On a final note: This is an especialy dangerous time to burden yourself with debt, and never, ever, pay up front for training. It's spectacularly unpretty when it goes wrong
Last edited by Telstar; 13th Jul 2008 at 12:30.
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This is what I did - it worked!
Hi guys,
I started my full time ATPL writtens at an amazing school at Baginton International (ATA) in October 2000 in a very positive pilot job market place. I was on unpaid leave from a good job within the airline industry. I had all 14 subjects complete by August 2001. By the 10th September 2001 I was completely screwed!
I went back to work, watched the industry improve, secured my exams by completing my CPL, went back to work, watched some more, took 12 months leave entitlement all together and completed my IR...by March 2004 I had a blue book in my sticky mit with an Instrument Rating!
By November 2004 I had employment secured with the best turbo-prop job in the UK...wonderful memories...now I get paid to sit on a beach or like last week, go to Universal Studios
by flying a 185 tonne jet!
It's all very possible, just not right now! Go modular, DO NOT GIVE any large school a large sum of cash. A 'chunk' of the ATPL mountain at a time, go back to work, re-assess and re-plan as you go if necessary. It's bloody hard work, made harder by these circumstances of living around ATPL training, I sweated blood, lived on digestive biscuits and on occasions thought it surly isn't worth all this sh*t! But, and i'll add the word 'personally' due to what other folk on here write, I think it's awesome.
Put yourself in a position to gain when the good times return, and they will.
Focus on the positve - search for post's by G-SXTY, he's a positve type chap that (I think!) will agree with what i've written.
Anyone still awake?! Sorry...long post I know...
Cheers,
JB
I started my full time ATPL writtens at an amazing school at Baginton International (ATA) in October 2000 in a very positive pilot job market place. I was on unpaid leave from a good job within the airline industry. I had all 14 subjects complete by August 2001. By the 10th September 2001 I was completely screwed!
I went back to work, watched the industry improve, secured my exams by completing my CPL, went back to work, watched some more, took 12 months leave entitlement all together and completed my IR...by March 2004 I had a blue book in my sticky mit with an Instrument Rating!
By November 2004 I had employment secured with the best turbo-prop job in the UK...wonderful memories...now I get paid to sit on a beach or like last week, go to Universal Studios
by flying a 185 tonne jet!It's all very possible, just not right now! Go modular, DO NOT GIVE any large school a large sum of cash. A 'chunk' of the ATPL mountain at a time, go back to work, re-assess and re-plan as you go if necessary. It's bloody hard work, made harder by these circumstances of living around ATPL training, I sweated blood, lived on digestive biscuits and on occasions thought it surly isn't worth all this sh*t! But, and i'll add the word 'personally' due to what other folk on here write, I think it's awesome.
Put yourself in a position to gain when the good times return, and they will.
Focus on the positve - search for post's by G-SXTY, he's a positve type chap that (I think!) will agree with what i've written.
Anyone still awake?! Sorry...long post I know...
Cheers,
JB
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Potkettleblack - Entirely correct in my opinion and you would do very well to follow those tips closely. HALT the atpl course if i were you and follow those steps he has written, roughly and it will set you up verywell whilst fullfiling your passion for flying which we all share.
Private flying will be just as challenging and rewarding for you and you are in control of the flying, rather than being held to ransom by flight schools, regulators and living expenses.
Keep flying fun as that is what it should always be. In my view there will be alternative technologies in light aircraft very soon, Boeing has already flown fuel cell planes. Flying should be a low energy and economical process eventually i think and hydrogen/electricity will be the future i think but maybe on a more VLJ principle.
Good luck to you and well done for listening to everyones advice!
Private flying will be just as challenging and rewarding for you and you are in control of the flying, rather than being held to ransom by flight schools, regulators and living expenses.
Keep flying fun as that is what it should always be. In my view there will be alternative technologies in light aircraft very soon, Boeing has already flown fuel cell planes. Flying should be a low energy and economical process eventually i think and hydrogen/electricity will be the future i think but maybe on a more VLJ principle.
Good luck to you and well done for listening to everyones advice!
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Keep flying
One hint: Make sure that after you are qualified you keep on flying. I can not stress enough the importance of it. Join the local flying club, do some flightseeing tours, give instruction etc. I see a lot of people in my surroundings just sitting on their ass, complaining that and i quote: "nobody gives me a chance"; "i did not get 1 single invitation", "i send a bunch of application letters (just 50 of them) without any result"; "my age is against me".etc
So keep on fighting and flying after getting your license.
Good luck!
So keep on fighting and flying after getting your license.
Good luck!
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Real Pilot shortage still comming!
People already have posted their comments on the same thread. But My point is, why IATA being such a reputable organization should & would print such things if have no real base? in cas really briefed by IATA.
People already have posted their comments on the same thread. But My point is, why IATA being such a reputable organization should & would print such things if have no real base? in cas really briefed by IATA.
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AvEnthusiast.
You have received some excellent advice on this thread, particularly from potkettleblack, Farrell, Telstar and JB007. I would agree with everything they have said.
Medium to long term, job prospects are good. The demand for air travel is there, and will continue to grow. So is it worth chasing your dream? Yes. Should you do it now, in 2008? In a word, no. In the short term, i.e. the next 2-3 years, I believe the prospects are pretty grim. In Europe and the US, the industry is entering one of its periodic downturns. Experienced pilots will lose their jobs, never mind wannabes. Yes, China is still expanding strongly, and possibly the job market around the Pacific rim will be a bit healthier. However, just imagine the number of experienced FAA and JAA licence holders who will be looking eastwards as the jobs in Europe and the US dry up. Make no mistake, there won't be many chances for newly qualified low-hours guys for the next couple of years.
You mentioned a few posts ago that you're not lucky. That's a strange thing for an aspiring airline pilot to say, and maybe gained something in the translation? As Telstar pointed out, in this game you have to make your own luck. You'll see from my previous posts that I've been very fortunate, but I dare anyone to say that it's just fallen into my lap - I worked bloody hard for many years to be that lucky.
Several of us now have said the same thing - this is not the time to be spending huge sums on commercial flying training. We have all been down the road you're just starting off on, we've all been there, done that and got the T-shirt. And it's because we've seen the pitfalls that you're getting this advice - please listen to it. If you commit now to commercial training, there is a very good chance you'll qualify in the middle of a recession, with no realistic prospect of work for a couple of years. Even if you've financed it from savings rather than borrowing, you'll still have to maintain IR currency to have any chance of making it through airline selection - have you checked the hourly cost of renting an IFR twin? For how long will your budget cover that?
I well understand your impatience, but at 24 you are still young - you have all the time in the world. I was 29 before I had a flying lesson! I can only echo what everyone else has said. Take things slowly, do a private licence, build hours, research the industry, do the written exams, do anything but spend loads of money on commercial training! I take your point that your location makes it cheaper (in theory) to go off and do everything in one go, but what's the point if there are no jobs when you qualify? Remember, making your own luck includes having a realistic game-plan.
Top tip - there are two secrets to success in this game; contacts and timing. Right now your timing couldn't be much worse. Sorry if that's not what you want to hear, but that's how I - and a lot of others - see it.
You have received some excellent advice on this thread, particularly from potkettleblack, Farrell, Telstar and JB007. I would agree with everything they have said.
Medium to long term, job prospects are good. The demand for air travel is there, and will continue to grow. So is it worth chasing your dream? Yes. Should you do it now, in 2008? In a word, no. In the short term, i.e. the next 2-3 years, I believe the prospects are pretty grim. In Europe and the US, the industry is entering one of its periodic downturns. Experienced pilots will lose their jobs, never mind wannabes. Yes, China is still expanding strongly, and possibly the job market around the Pacific rim will be a bit healthier. However, just imagine the number of experienced FAA and JAA licence holders who will be looking eastwards as the jobs in Europe and the US dry up. Make no mistake, there won't be many chances for newly qualified low-hours guys for the next couple of years.
You mentioned a few posts ago that you're not lucky. That's a strange thing for an aspiring airline pilot to say, and maybe gained something in the translation? As Telstar pointed out, in this game you have to make your own luck. You'll see from my previous posts that I've been very fortunate, but I dare anyone to say that it's just fallen into my lap - I worked bloody hard for many years to be that lucky.
Several of us now have said the same thing - this is not the time to be spending huge sums on commercial flying training. We have all been down the road you're just starting off on, we've all been there, done that and got the T-shirt. And it's because we've seen the pitfalls that you're getting this advice - please listen to it. If you commit now to commercial training, there is a very good chance you'll qualify in the middle of a recession, with no realistic prospect of work for a couple of years. Even if you've financed it from savings rather than borrowing, you'll still have to maintain IR currency to have any chance of making it through airline selection - have you checked the hourly cost of renting an IFR twin? For how long will your budget cover that?
I well understand your impatience, but at 24 you are still young - you have all the time in the world. I was 29 before I had a flying lesson! I can only echo what everyone else has said. Take things slowly, do a private licence, build hours, research the industry, do the written exams, do anything but spend loads of money on commercial training! I take your point that your location makes it cheaper (in theory) to go off and do everything in one go, but what's the point if there are no jobs when you qualify? Remember, making your own luck includes having a realistic game-plan.
Top tip - there are two secrets to success in this game; contacts and timing. Right now your timing couldn't be much worse. Sorry if that's not what you want to hear, but that's how I - and a lot of others - see it.
Last edited by G SXTY; 23rd Jul 2008 at 12:50.
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We have all been down the road you're just starting off on, we've all been there, done that and got the T-shirt. And it's because we've seen the pitfalls that you're getting this advice - please listen to it.
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What will happen?
Same thing that always happens.
At least once every decade, the industry goes into a pretty poor state of affairs, with crews being laid off and some carriers going bust. However, the industry is also pretty resilient in the long term, and full of opportunists and entrepreneurs, so it is never long before things take an upward swing.
Whatever cycles the overall world economy swings through, the airline industry generally follows the same kind of pattern, but in a more exaggerated fashion. In other words, good times are great and bad times are pretty awful.
I was unlucky enough to be in training during 9/11, yet myself and every single one of my mates shrugged it off and just got on with it. When we graduated, things were grim and we just didn't see that it would ever get any better. But it did, and quickly too. It surprised many, many people, not least of all, us. Every single trainee pilot I know from that time who successfully gained their IR, is in airline emploment, although it took some a few years to finally get there.
If it is what you want, just ignore the present market conditions, and concentrate on a successful graduation. Worry about finding a job when you are finally in a position to do so. If there isn't one when you graduate, find a way to keep current, and just kep bashing away at it. Even in the good times, the first break is always the hardest one to get, and sheer persistence and luck are always a requirement.
If you can only look at this as a potential investment opportunity, then give it up now. There is no guarantee you will ever make a decent financial return on your investment (how much risk are you comfortable with?), and nobody with any sort of passion for the job wants to sit next to a cold fish like you all day. There's so much more to life than money, and some things just cannot be bought.
Same thing that always happens.
At least once every decade, the industry goes into a pretty poor state of affairs, with crews being laid off and some carriers going bust. However, the industry is also pretty resilient in the long term, and full of opportunists and entrepreneurs, so it is never long before things take an upward swing.
Whatever cycles the overall world economy swings through, the airline industry generally follows the same kind of pattern, but in a more exaggerated fashion. In other words, good times are great and bad times are pretty awful.
I was unlucky enough to be in training during 9/11, yet myself and every single one of my mates shrugged it off and just got on with it. When we graduated, things were grim and we just didn't see that it would ever get any better. But it did, and quickly too. It surprised many, many people, not least of all, us. Every single trainee pilot I know from that time who successfully gained their IR, is in airline emploment, although it took some a few years to finally get there.
If it is what you want, just ignore the present market conditions, and concentrate on a successful graduation. Worry about finding a job when you are finally in a position to do so. If there isn't one when you graduate, find a way to keep current, and just kep bashing away at it. Even in the good times, the first break is always the hardest one to get, and sheer persistence and luck are always a requirement.
If you can only look at this as a potential investment opportunity, then give it up now. There is no guarantee you will ever make a decent financial return on your investment (how much risk are you comfortable with?), and nobody with any sort of passion for the job wants to sit next to a cold fish like you all day. There's so much more to life than money, and some things just cannot be bought.
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Excellent post from Maude Charlee. Yes, the market conditions are pretty ugly right now, but by the time you're fully trained, things may well have changed - remember, it's a cycle! Also, if flying is the only thing you want to do, then no amount of scaremongering will change your mind. I started training in late spring 2001, finished Jan 2003; not too many jobs around then either! It took me a long time, but through sheer determination, networking and hard work (and yes, a bit of luck too) I got there; even during the "lean" years, I managed to get a few interviews/selections. Looking back, there isn't really much I would change if I had to do it all over again - not that I would want to!
All my friends from flight training days now have paid flying jobs, flying jets or turboprops, passenger or cargo or bizjets or instructing. Serves to show that those who get there are those who never give up! Remember, flight training means lots of time, effort and money, but when compared to finding your first flying job, it's the easy bit! It might sound like something out of "the Right Stuff", but if the current situation makes you wobble, then you probably don't have what it takes.
Now I'll qualify my answer: in these uncertain times, train at your own pace, i.e. go modular (you will also save money); choose an FTO according to your needs and criteria; and don't pay up front. Ever.
Cheers
All my friends from flight training days now have paid flying jobs, flying jets or turboprops, passenger or cargo or bizjets or instructing. Serves to show that those who get there are those who never give up! Remember, flight training means lots of time, effort and money, but when compared to finding your first flying job, it's the easy bit! It might sound like something out of "the Right Stuff", but if the current situation makes you wobble, then you probably don't have what it takes.
Now I'll qualify my answer: in these uncertain times, train at your own pace, i.e. go modular (you will also save money); choose an FTO according to your needs and criteria; and don't pay up front. Ever.
Cheers
