Real Pilot shortage still comming!
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Real Pilot shortage still comming!
From AIN June 2008
Pilot shortage ahead, IATA plans to bolster numbers
By Curt Epstein
June 1, 2008
Training, General Aviation
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is taking steps to address the looming pilot and mechanic shortage facing airlines globally. IATA’s training and qualification initiative looked at manufacturers’ market outlook studies, which predict that 17,650 new passenger aircraft will be delivered by 2018, requiring more than 200,000 new pilots, or nearly 19,000 pilots a year.
Current global training programs can produce a maximum of 15,200 per year, leaving a shortfall of more than 3,000 pilots annually. While the study looks a decade into the future, airlines are already feeling the effects of the pilot shortage. According to Juergen Haacker, IATA’s director of operations, at least six airlines have begun delaying deliveries of new aircraft because they do not have enough pilots to crew them. “The issue is significantly different between the continents,” said Haacker. “The major problem is that [the economies of] what we consider the emerging markets–Asia, the Middle East, India–[are] growing faster than the average of the rest of the world, but traditionally they have little capacity for training.”
For most airlines in developing regions, foreign flight crews are a fact of doing business, but with the industry growth in these areas, air carriers are resorting to different means to attract enough pilots. “One Middle East airline has an advertisement out [targeting] North American regional airline pilots or general aviation pilots, offering a career path [that leads to] piloting an A380 in the Middle East,” said Haacker. “There is already competition for this resource.”
Another worrisome trend has emerged in some airlines’ practice of drastically reducing the amount of experience required to achieve captain status, Haacker said. Some airlines are trying to cut down the level of experience required for command by roughly 50 percent, he noted, “and we think that’s going too far. You cannot count on having an experienced crew with such a fresh captain.”
According to IATA, North America is not yet experiencing pilot shortages since the industry, in the midst of a consolidation, is not experiencing the same growth as other regions. Due to the recent shuttering of several regional airlines, there is a pool of experienced pilots available, but the concern in North America is with the mechanics, according to Haacker. “A study showed that more than 60 percent of the maintenance [workforce] in North America is older than 45, and I think a significant number of them are ready for retirement. If we do not find replacements as fast as possible, we will run into a serious shortage of mechanics in North America.”
International Training Standards Needed
IATA’s initiative aims to increase and improve the available aviation talent pools. One key element involves working with governments around the world to formulate laws standardizing training provider certification requirements to create more aviation training schools, especially in emerging markets. “We want to ensure that training philosophies globally are harmonized so we do not run into a problem where one state tries to cut down the number of required training hours or [experience] to increase the throughput [of candidates].”
While the association has produced a standard practices manual on recommended training procedures, IATA admits that global implementation has fallen short of the association’s expectations. Haacker hopes that organizations such as ICAO will adopt new simulator and training device specifications. The association’s goal is to have its best-practice suggestions integrated into national laws by 2010.
“You can have a problem when you recruit pilots from one training provider, trained on a certain technology of simulators, and their knowledge base is totally different from that of pilots coming from another training provider who used different simulator equipment,” he said. “That’s something that can cause trouble in your daily operations.”
In the meantime, the association is developing a survey on how to stabilize the number of candidates for pilot and mechanic positions without having to compromise on the quality or security needed. IATA plans to submit the survey to its constituents. “If the trend is for less experienced pilots and less trained mechanics to work on and operate airplanes that fly globally, there is inherent risk for everyone, not just the airline that is operating with these types of people,” he concluded.
Pilot shortage ahead, IATA plans to bolster numbers
By Curt Epstein
June 1, 2008
Training, General Aviation
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is taking steps to address the looming pilot and mechanic shortage facing airlines globally. IATA’s training and qualification initiative looked at manufacturers’ market outlook studies, which predict that 17,650 new passenger aircraft will be delivered by 2018, requiring more than 200,000 new pilots, or nearly 19,000 pilots a year.
Current global training programs can produce a maximum of 15,200 per year, leaving a shortfall of more than 3,000 pilots annually. While the study looks a decade into the future, airlines are already feeling the effects of the pilot shortage. According to Juergen Haacker, IATA’s director of operations, at least six airlines have begun delaying deliveries of new aircraft because they do not have enough pilots to crew them. “The issue is significantly different between the continents,” said Haacker. “The major problem is that [the economies of] what we consider the emerging markets–Asia, the Middle East, India–[are] growing faster than the average of the rest of the world, but traditionally they have little capacity for training.”
For most airlines in developing regions, foreign flight crews are a fact of doing business, but with the industry growth in these areas, air carriers are resorting to different means to attract enough pilots. “One Middle East airline has an advertisement out [targeting] North American regional airline pilots or general aviation pilots, offering a career path [that leads to] piloting an A380 in the Middle East,” said Haacker. “There is already competition for this resource.”
Another worrisome trend has emerged in some airlines’ practice of drastically reducing the amount of experience required to achieve captain status, Haacker said. Some airlines are trying to cut down the level of experience required for command by roughly 50 percent, he noted, “and we think that’s going too far. You cannot count on having an experienced crew with such a fresh captain.”
According to IATA, North America is not yet experiencing pilot shortages since the industry, in the midst of a consolidation, is not experiencing the same growth as other regions. Due to the recent shuttering of several regional airlines, there is a pool of experienced pilots available, but the concern in North America is with the mechanics, according to Haacker. “A study showed that more than 60 percent of the maintenance [workforce] in North America is older than 45, and I think a significant number of them are ready for retirement. If we do not find replacements as fast as possible, we will run into a serious shortage of mechanics in North America.”
International Training Standards Needed
IATA’s initiative aims to increase and improve the available aviation talent pools. One key element involves working with governments around the world to formulate laws standardizing training provider certification requirements to create more aviation training schools, especially in emerging markets. “We want to ensure that training philosophies globally are harmonized so we do not run into a problem where one state tries to cut down the number of required training hours or [experience] to increase the throughput [of candidates].”
While the association has produced a standard practices manual on recommended training procedures, IATA admits that global implementation has fallen short of the association’s expectations. Haacker hopes that organizations such as ICAO will adopt new simulator and training device specifications. The association’s goal is to have its best-practice suggestions integrated into national laws by 2010.
“You can have a problem when you recruit pilots from one training provider, trained on a certain technology of simulators, and their knowledge base is totally different from that of pilots coming from another training provider who used different simulator equipment,” he said. “That’s something that can cause trouble in your daily operations.”
In the meantime, the association is developing a survey on how to stabilize the number of candidates for pilot and mechanic positions without having to compromise on the quality or security needed. IATA plans to submit the survey to its constituents. “If the trend is for less experienced pilots and less trained mechanics to work on and operate airplanes that fly globally, there is inherent risk for everyone, not just the airline that is operating with these types of people,” he concluded.
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Not so sure about that. With the price of oil at the moment, a lot of majors in the States are laying guys off. Even Emirates have slowed their recruiting process down - no more road shows etc. I think the guys back in SA that thought EK was always a possible escape route might have to re-evaluate.
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There is now pilot shortage now nor will there be in the future I'm afraid I've been hearing about a pilot shortage for the last 30 years but never really seen a bad one! Sure there is the odd time when you can't find a pilot with the right experience for your particular type of aircraft but a true shortage ahs never existed. There will always and has always been a large pool of desperate wanabee's waitng for that first job and that has not changed since I took my first lesson in 1978! I really don't see it changing anytime soon!
I think IATA is worried about cheap pilots!! That's a whole differant argument!!!
I think IATA is worried about cheap pilots!! That's a whole differant argument!!!
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''unablenavperformance''
YIP !!! I tend to agree with you,I have only been flying for 22 years(still wet behind the ears) and have also heard the pilot shortage bull$hit allot before,until someone phone me and offer me a job , I don't see the shortage that everyone is talking about. Some carriers just find it more difficult to atract pilots to there outfits. I will not mention names here, but we all know where you can find a job if you desperate !! Just my ''whatever cents worth'' !!!
YIP !!! I tend to agree with you,I have only been flying for 22 years(still wet behind the ears) and have also heard the pilot shortage bull$hit allot before,until someone phone me and offer me a job , I don't see the shortage that everyone is talking about. Some carriers just find it more difficult to atract pilots to there outfits. I will not mention names here, but we all know where you can find a job if you desperate !! Just my ''whatever cents worth'' !!!
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Pilot Shortage
You guys look very experienced!!! Am still a Private Pilot currently undergoing my training in a reputable school in Port Elizabeth, S.A!! I have got all my CPL subjects and I will be testing for my CPL in the next month, thereafter get my frozen ATP. Where would you advise me to find a turbine job preferably twin? Thx a lot..
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I think IATA is worried about cheap pilots!! That's a whole differant argument!!!
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Am still a Private Pilot currently undergoing my training in a reputable school in Port Elizabeth, S.A!! I have got all my CPL subjects and I will be testing for my CPL in the next month, thereafter get my frozen ATP. Where would you advise me to find a turbine job preferably twin?
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Same way everyone else does it. Start at the bottom and work your way up. There's no shame flying piston singles.
Yip there's allot of truth in that statement,eg become and instructor and learn to fly.
Yip there's allot of truth in that statement,eg become and instructor and learn to fly.
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I agree fully with SRT. I have been coming across of a whole lot of guys who are doing their CPLs who want to go directly on to turbines and want to take the short cuts. Especially the 19 year old ones, where daddy is funding the turbine rating. Some of them have and will probably get lucky.
It is all and well for skychick to motivate them going into instruction, however I do not support the idea, that a guy who does not have practical experience or talent to instruct - I think they should make an hour requirement of at least 500 hrs. An instructor must be payed well and must bring a true interest for instructing his students PROFESSIONALLY. There must be a standard and quality to the teaching and this should be monitored very closley by the authorities. There are a lot of low quality instructors in SA. I have also come across those with loads of experience - but sometimes their teaching style leaves much to be desired. Training is expensive enough and lays the foundation for the persons further carreer. An instructor must understand didactics and be able to adapt teaching skills to suit an individual. There are not many people who can actually do this.
There are traps in aviation, whichever way any person chooses I suppose. Taking myself as an example, I have flown about 1300 hours on SEP and MEP and am now busy transitioning to turbine. I may say, that I was a good student up to my CPL/IR -I was fortunate to have great instructors. In my first pilot job I was an ace flying those legs from A to B. However I failed to notice a slow decline in proficiancy in abnormal and emergency procedures and the cognitive flow pattern of them in a fast changing distress scenario. There was no system in place, to challange me to notice my "slow brain" earlier and in all honesty - the "experienced" instructors I came across and paid to shape me up, did not have the tools to even help me with this condition (they actually made it worse by hammering me and telling me that I suck instead of taking it a step back and speeding things back up from there) i.e. it is MY problem and it is haunting me at this time, where I actually want to take the next hurdle in my carreer. On the positive side: Facing the challange actually brings life back into my flying and all in all it will hopefully increase my awareness and make me do my job better.
I appologize for bouncing in and out of topic - I guess Mr. "Jet Cockpit" (only noticed his location now-very funny dude-now grow up) diverged the thread. So what I am saying all in all is: don't fool yourself and others. Get all the experience you can and put value to your name. If you take shortcuts or become slack, it will catch you (that is why I told my story here). There is and always will be a demand for real professionals in this industry and it takes a lot of time and experience to get there. I almost want to start another thread with the question: "When last did you take yourself to court". Would also be cool to hear some stories how some of you got around personal and general challanges in aviation.
It is all and well for skychick to motivate them going into instruction, however I do not support the idea, that a guy who does not have practical experience or talent to instruct - I think they should make an hour requirement of at least 500 hrs. An instructor must be payed well and must bring a true interest for instructing his students PROFESSIONALLY. There must be a standard and quality to the teaching and this should be monitored very closley by the authorities. There are a lot of low quality instructors in SA. I have also come across those with loads of experience - but sometimes their teaching style leaves much to be desired. Training is expensive enough and lays the foundation for the persons further carreer. An instructor must understand didactics and be able to adapt teaching skills to suit an individual. There are not many people who can actually do this.
There are traps in aviation, whichever way any person chooses I suppose. Taking myself as an example, I have flown about 1300 hours on SEP and MEP and am now busy transitioning to turbine. I may say, that I was a good student up to my CPL/IR -I was fortunate to have great instructors. In my first pilot job I was an ace flying those legs from A to B. However I failed to notice a slow decline in proficiancy in abnormal and emergency procedures and the cognitive flow pattern of them in a fast changing distress scenario. There was no system in place, to challange me to notice my "slow brain" earlier and in all honesty - the "experienced" instructors I came across and paid to shape me up, did not have the tools to even help me with this condition (they actually made it worse by hammering me and telling me that I suck instead of taking it a step back and speeding things back up from there) i.e. it is MY problem and it is haunting me at this time, where I actually want to take the next hurdle in my carreer. On the positive side: Facing the challange actually brings life back into my flying and all in all it will hopefully increase my awareness and make me do my job better.
I appologize for bouncing in and out of topic - I guess Mr. "Jet Cockpit" (only noticed his location now-very funny dude-now grow up) diverged the thread. So what I am saying all in all is: don't fool yourself and others. Get all the experience you can and put value to your name. If you take shortcuts or become slack, it will catch you (that is why I told my story here). There is and always will be a demand for real professionals in this industry and it takes a lot of time and experience to get there. I almost want to start another thread with the question: "When last did you take yourself to court". Would also be cool to hear some stories how some of you got around personal and general challanges in aviation.
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Shortage, ha! As has been said, when companies are beating my door down with competing salary offers, then there's a shortage - I've heard this so often before, it's a joke.
Quite frankly, there are no 'shortcuts' in aviation - if somebody gets a lucky job break, well good for them. If it grates people that daddy payed for the rating, well, rest assured that it grates others that you even had the money to do a CPL! It's not about haves and have nots. There's only a certain amount of experience in the starter jobs that is applicable to the later jobs. How much is zooming around the swamps in a -206 applicable to airline ops in a 737? (which is in my experience always a difficult transition if you've never flown jets before, and even then it's plenty of work). Not much I reckon, so to me it's all about enjoying your career, more than simply chasing a bigger machine.
The time is already upon us when junior pilots advance a lot faster to turbines and machines in the 1900 category (perhaps one symptom of this so called 'shortage') than they used to when I started. Back then (not that long ago!), a 1900 was a giant machine poled by gods, whereas nowdays I've seen guys getting into the right seat with a fresh CPL. If airline flying is what you want to do, then go for the multi crew type turbines/jets, but bear in mind you'll be missing out on a lot of fun! I'm really glad I had my stint in deepest darkest, poling ancient Twotters, it was fun.
Instruction was a great teacher too, despite what others may think - when I was an experienced instructor, my response to emergencies etc were so ingrained that when I did my first charter it was really odd to go from A to B without dealing with some kind of simulated (or real in several cases) emergency!
Quite frankly, there are no 'shortcuts' in aviation - if somebody gets a lucky job break, well good for them. If it grates people that daddy payed for the rating, well, rest assured that it grates others that you even had the money to do a CPL! It's not about haves and have nots. There's only a certain amount of experience in the starter jobs that is applicable to the later jobs. How much is zooming around the swamps in a -206 applicable to airline ops in a 737? (which is in my experience always a difficult transition if you've never flown jets before, and even then it's plenty of work). Not much I reckon, so to me it's all about enjoying your career, more than simply chasing a bigger machine.
The time is already upon us when junior pilots advance a lot faster to turbines and machines in the 1900 category (perhaps one symptom of this so called 'shortage') than they used to when I started. Back then (not that long ago!), a 1900 was a giant machine poled by gods, whereas nowdays I've seen guys getting into the right seat with a fresh CPL. If airline flying is what you want to do, then go for the multi crew type turbines/jets, but bear in mind you'll be missing out on a lot of fun! I'm really glad I had my stint in deepest darkest, poling ancient Twotters, it was fun.
Instruction was a great teacher too, despite what others may think - when I was an experienced instructor, my response to emergencies etc were so ingrained that when I did my first charter it was really odd to go from A to B without dealing with some kind of simulated (or real in several cases) emergency!
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Dont rush and stop chasing that "ideal" airline job. Yes, airline flying is great but some of the best, most fun and interesting flying I've done has been on general aviation airplanes. (i.e 210's 182's light twins Vans and so on)
When instructing, doing charters and flying on contracts you meet a whole lot of interesting people (that is in both sense of the word..), fly to new and interesting places and sometimes experience things that only the rich and famous can afford! Most of the time its great, sometimes its kak. But its mostly great!
If you rush into the right seat of a Boeing you bound to look back and regret not experiencing and enjoying everything aviation has to offer.
Just my 2cents
When instructing, doing charters and flying on contracts you meet a whole lot of interesting people (that is in both sense of the word..), fly to new and interesting places and sometimes experience things that only the rich and famous can afford! Most of the time its great, sometimes its kak. But its mostly great!
If you rush into the right seat of a Boeing you bound to look back and regret not experiencing and enjoying everything aviation has to offer.
Just my 2cents
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Jet Cockpit
Jet Cockpit - why would you even contemplate doing a CPL. It might mean that you will land a flying job removing you from your current (very pleasant) location. 
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How much is zooming around the swamps in a -206 applicable to airline ops in a 737?
Been flying with a guy that has 2000 hrs as an MK co-pilot. Sadly you can tell that out of his 2000hrs on DC-8's and B742's that its all been cruise with AP engaged. Maybe 100 approaches and landings as PF. Of which a big chunk had been pattered by the captain. He is a good pilot, but 'inexperience' shows, specially at upgrade time.
I agree with the general thread. Instruct to 800hrs, then move to turbines and then a regional. When you have 3000hrs you have done a million approaches and the 'heavy iron' is easy.
But the really question in this thread is MONEY. There is a shortage of experience, 'cause unless you put it in at the bottom you wont get experienced pilots out at the top.
I dont see why we as pilots should take a dip in pay/conditions/status so some 'fish and chip' brits can go get drunk in Spain cheap.
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It's an arguable point, but nonetheless, I stand by my belief that only so much 'decision making' whilst flying a 206 round the swamps is applicable to an airline job. It's down to the individual concerned - don't get me wrong, it all helps (I've personally instructed, chartered, contracted, and finally after 4K+ hrs, airlined 
), but only up to a point, if airline flying is your goal. At the end of the day, do what you enjoy. If you're really not liking your job anymore, it's time to move. And if you're a dumbass, more time on single pilot types is not going to change the fact that you're a dumbass. Conversely, if you're a switched chap/ess, maybe you'll still impress despite lower hours - like I said, it's all down to the individual concerned.
Edit: Aaaah, wandering off topic is awesome. Soz.
), but only up to a point, if airline flying is your goal. At the end of the day, do what you enjoy. If you're really not liking your job anymore, it's time to move. And if you're a dumbass, more time on single pilot types is not going to change the fact that you're a dumbass. Conversely, if you're a switched chap/ess, maybe you'll still impress despite lower hours - like I said, it's all down to the individual concerned.Edit: Aaaah, wandering off topic is awesome. Soz.
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American cutting off pilot jobs!
American Airlines and its sister carrier American Eagle, are cutting off 200 pilot jobs and asking some of its senior pilots to take early retired package.
Some Airlines like Southwest Airlines are lucky to have locked in fuel prices at $60 a barrel. Now if only every other airline had the same smart idea then. Too late now...
We can only blame it to the current surge in oil prices. Hope for better days...
Some Airlines like Southwest Airlines are lucky to have locked in fuel prices at $60 a barrel. Now if only every other airline had the same smart idea then. Too late now...
We can only blame it to the current surge in oil prices. Hope for better days...
My airline, A320 low cost operator has "absolutely no problem" finding applicants for f/o jobs. However most of the new ones we have employed have 200-300 hours total. A self sponsored type rating scheme is in effect and they will stick around for two or three years before they are ready to move on.
A lot of experienced f/os have left, leaving very few upgradable ones. Direct entry captains will be needed to replace those going to the sand pit. We are having a problem finding suitable replacements for them.
Shortages are of suitable, type rated and experienced (on type) people.
A lot of experienced f/os have left, leaving very few upgradable ones. Direct entry captains will be needed to replace those going to the sand pit. We are having a problem finding suitable replacements for them.
Shortages are of suitable, type rated and experienced (on type) people.
