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Flyer Show Heathrow 2008

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Old 20th Apr 2008, 19:46
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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I think I'd spend at least a year researching the job, the industry and the training options before I'd even think about contacting schools about course dates.


But like many hundreds of others every year you could just blunder in and spend a lot of money on a wing and a prayer. You might get lucky - you never know.

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Old 20th Apr 2008, 20:14
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I would also like to point out that you should take most of what is said at that show by most of the schools with a large, large bucket of salt. The world is not all roses and champagne like they make out.

I don't mean to discourage anyone from undertaking this career, there is really nothing like it and I'm sure you wont regret the decision. Just make sure you know what you are really getting yourself into.
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Old 20th Apr 2008, 23:24
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Air Slidder

BA dont recriut anyone from modular for their 1st job. The thing is, I dont think they're looking for any low hours guys at the mo anyway, so the integrated course isn't much of a benefit.

It's so hard to tell what the market is like when you finish your training. I'm in the same boat, as I have no idea what it will be like when i finish my training next year.

Ryanair made big statements about their fleet being 300 aircraft by 2012, and therefore recruiting 500 pilots every year. I wonder if that's really going to happen.
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 07:37
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Save some of that bucket of salt for PPRuNe. BA is recruiting low hour pilots this year. Just read further up this very thread for the number they need. However, you won't be done this year and even if you were, there's no guarantee you'd be in the very small percentage they take. Most wannabes don't get a choice where their first job is. Read PPRuNe for a few weeks and you'll quickly see that there are hundreds of CPL/IR holders that would take just about anything offered right now.

WWW's advice to research for a year is good, no salt needed for that one. Though I would say to him there's no need to check the Notams 18 months in advance, so the analogy breaks down a bit. Go ahead and apply to CTC and FTE now, but use the year long queue to do more research. Also bear in mind what the GBP to Euro exchange rate is doing to the cost for UK residents to train at FTE.
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 08:05
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As I type Oil is trading at $117 a barrel. A record.

Consumer confidence is collapsing.

I would train as cheaply and slowly as possible and I would keep your current job/career on the back burner rather than burn any bridges.

Airlines will start going bust as soon as the clocks go back would by my guess.


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Old 21st Apr 2008, 08:29
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Hi Folks, I was there on Saturday, and these are my thoughts;

Being solely interested in the ab-initio route there were only really 4 schools relevant to me and I preferred them in this order;

1. CTC Wings
2. OAA
3. Cabair
4. FTE

I think I was less impressed by FTE as they didn’t bring any people on the course for me to speak to!

As far as the seminars went I went to both the BA and Ryanair ones, but unfortunately neither were of much use, mostly consisted of stuff I already knew. However I did find Ryanair (at least the Irish guy) had a lot more charisma than BA.

Probably the most useful thing was being told by a number of cadets to go to a GAPAN aptitude test, which hopefully I will be doing this summer.
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 08:31
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Though I would say to him there's no need to check the Notams 18 months in advance, so the analogy breaks down a bit.
For a flight of 8 hrs you check the notams for 8 hrs and for a career of 30 years you try to check the notams for the next 30 years.

Am I paranoid, or am I completely missing something? I think the petroleum prices are at a stage that further increases mean a slow but certain capacity reduction in air travel, and we are starting to see some solid evidence that this is happening.

Adios, just out of interest, how high do you think (roughly) the global oil production can be raised? And what are your expectations of application of alternatives for aviation?


(sorry slightly off topic)
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 08:37
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I don't know the exact price for oxford, but for the sake of this post I will say £70k.

IMO, there is no point spending all that money, where you can go to a school for £35k, then when you come out spend the rest on an SSTR scheme. You would be a huge step ahead of the rest.

Seems logical to me. But of course, it seems the OAT and FTE marketing is better than logic .
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 09:23
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What is this 35k school you speak of?

I assume it's modular. But the point of going integrated is High job prospects. Of course, most airlines also pay for your type rating.

It should be noted that OAA you also get a foundation degree- included in the ab-initio course.
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 09:56
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But the point of going integrated is High job prospects.


IMO I don't think Integrated gives you as much of a headstart as the school make out. Of course that is IMO and from what I've heard from friends, so could be wrong. But I know there are many, many jobless integrated graduates from OAT. I don't really want to go into the whole Modular vs Integrated debate here.

The £35k school is Egnatia Aviation. I did their in-house modular, finished recently and am now looking to embark on a SSTR. It's the route I have chosen and I'd recommend it to anyone.
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 17:00
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I think the main issue of future economic stability in the aviation sector is important... but extremely hard to predict. I had an email this morning from Meryl Lynch and they are predicting an up turn in 2 months time... and all the economic models I have seen don't seem to be leading to financial tragedy.

The US are in recession but the average recession lasts for 18 months b4 there's growth. This one maybe longer!!! who knows. But as far as i know there is not going to be a deep depression in the future financial forecasts. As for the UK we have a lack of consumer confidence (mainly through what we are told in the media). But the problem here is with the banks and their underwriters, they don't want to lend to each other through fear of losing their future capitol spread... there is money there... and we are still in a state of growth overall. I suppose if the UK and US doesn't pick up well hell you can go and work in the mid-east, india or china if thats your thing.

As for fossil fuels, they are decreasing and there is huge demands on industry to find alternatives. But lets face it people still will need/want to fly... it comes down to human nature.

Sorry about the economic lesson stuff!!!
And that stuff about spending as little as possible is a very sensible thing, as long as your goals are achieved effectively.
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 18:00
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Many, including me, do not believe that this will be an average recession. Never in the history of the West have we had such a burden of debt. Never before have house price affordability values been stretched so taughtly.

All this is to dance on the head of a pin though. The 1990 - 93 recession was ordinary enough. Several large UK airlines went bust. Hundreds of pilots were out of work. Wannabes were screwed.

That's what an average recession will do.

The 2001 post Sept11th Slowdown was painful enough. I think even the most ardent optimist would concede that a slowdown is already baked in the cake.

With this in mind be in no doubt that all those at the Flyer show had a Vested Interest in YOU undertaking flying training. Nobody there was impartial.


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Old 21st Apr 2008, 21:55
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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Nobody there was impartial.
Apart from GAPAN... almost.

WWW, I spent a good 45 minutes talking to one of your orange friends on the GAPAN stand. He made more sense than any of the others and it was worth my while travelling down to LHR just for that conversation alone.

It was a good day. I enjoyed asking various people how the price of oil, economic downturn and credit crunch would affect them. The common was to ask me how many jobs are in the back of Flight this week. Another fine example of reading the METAR as a TAF; these guys are either oblivious or in denial.

IMHO, fatter oil prices open up potential for further exploration, pushing peak oil further into the future. I doubt we will ever see < $100 oil again, but profitability for future extraction has been increased. There is no shortage of oil at the moment; OPEC said today that they believe there is a daily surplus. Trading uncertainties are the cause of high fuel prices.

The global downturn and life without cheap borrowing is the real worry here. It WILL be nasty. Do not assume that people "need" holidays and will continue to fly. Ten years ago, BMI charged circa. £500 for a round trip EMA-EDI. People used to pay that kind of money, but NOT MANY. Yes, bums on seats can go down as well as up. Your home may be repossessed if you cannot meet the repayments...
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 23:08
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Guys I hear what you are saying... and those concerns of yours are definitely concerns of mine! I would not advice anyone to buy a house at the mo'... I wouldn't advise anyone to invest in the capital markets just yet. And I have to take it from you guys that 911 thing was bad, real bad coz i was not looking at the aviation industry at the time. Definitely the industry has had a good time up to now even frivolous! Now they are gonna be a hell of allot more cautious about the coming couple of years.

But on a personal level, and hope you guys can respect this, I'm not in my teens or early 20s. I'm 29, 30 in 2 months! I feel that if i was to wait a few of years to see how things were and then start the process all over again, being in my mid 30s, by the time of completion I would be 'passed it'! You see, correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't got the time to wait... I have to make that decision now... do I fly... or give up my dreams!

I know... Cringingly personal... where the guys with the white coats
I think I'll have to do some research on my age issues!!!

Last edited by Air Slidder; 21st Apr 2008 at 23:48.
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 23:44
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I've read some other threads as to the age of pilots and i know WWW you say that as long as you are under 55 it don't matter... what does everyone else feel, coz at Flyer people did mention concerns of age...
... I'm not trying to make it sound like I'm over the hill... but as the GAPAN guy said the older you get the harder it is for someone to adapt themselves to needs of a pilot...
...maybe there isn't an issue with recruitment age, but your own ability to perform and learn as ya get older may diminish. pls set me right if you think diferent, as this was the view of the GAPAN and other guys at the show.
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Old 21st Apr 2008, 23:58
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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SSTR ?

Please excuse my ignorance (I'm not a native speaker) : what does SSTR stand for ?
Thanks !
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Old 22nd Apr 2008, 08:01
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SSTR = Self Sponsored Type Rating (a type rating you pay for yourself).
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Old 22nd Apr 2008, 09:41
  #38 (permalink)  
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WWW,

My statement that those that want to fly will do it anyway may sound rash, but as said I don't think you can plan training to coincide with the good or bad times. To be a good pilot you need to be a considered rational type, but the decision to train as a pilot can only be based on a passion for flying. When you consider the implications of pilot training, the cost and the sacrifice required no rational logical individual would ever consider it.

If you have a passion for flying you are going to do this anyway.

However I do not advocate that anyone should take on excessive debt to do this; but you should progress when you are in a financial position to do so.

It is also quite concerning how taken in some of these posters are by the marketing of the integrated schools. The integrated schools do have a recommendation systems but only for those that meet a certain standard; which I believe is first time passes in all ground exams, CPL flight test and at least series one pass in the IR. Also integrated courses will grade each flight and you will need to achieve a certain average grade across training to get a recommendation. After thet you will still need to pass the airlines own selection criteria.

If you don't get a recommendation then you are faced with having to instruct or fund a type rating the same as a modular student.
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Old 22nd Apr 2008, 10:12
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I'm not in my teens or early 20s. I'm 29, 30 in 2 months!
Then you're not that different to me! I am 28, soon to turn 29. To fly for a living is my dream but I certainly won’t risk anything that supports my wife and child. I refuse to let my dreams slip aside though; that would be equally detrimental to family life (dissatisfaction, resent, etc.). I don’t want to be aged 70, sitting complaining I didn’t have a go when I had the chance because WWW put a few negative comments on PPRuNe. You only get a single shot at life. But unfortunately, I do have to agree with most of what he says, like it or not.

So how do I resolve this problem? In simple terms:
* I’ll continue modular and keep a hand on the pace throttle myself. From sitting the first block of exams I have 18mths + 3yrs to complete all the training. I won’t spend a penny on flight training until I have some confidence in the market. There’s fun in learning and I’ll learn the ATPL theory until I can repeat the manuals word for word.
* I’ll borrow nothing and be prepared to spend £30k and not use the resulting licenses to earn money. I hope to spend less that this as training organizations become desperate to sell courses.
* I’ll maintain currency in my present career as a design-engineer.

I know that I am in a fortunate position to be able to say and do this. But if I never earn a penny flying, then the only "wasted" money is the CPL and MCC, since I'd be able to use the IR for private flying (and I would). But I’d still have learnt from those courses and made myself a better pilot.

Don’t give up on dreams; just manage the risk associated with achieving them.
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Old 22nd Apr 2008, 10:22
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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jezbowman - I commend your well planned, measured approach. It is exactly what I advocate. I cannot think of a better plan or a better way of illustrating the reality of my advice. Thanks.

Portsharbour. I know what you are saying. Speaking broadly there is too much passion and too little rationalisation in Wannabeism. For every well researched, prepared and informed Wannabe there are half a dozen wide-eyed idiots desperate to be seperated from their money. An entire industry of money seperation stands opposed by... well Me, most of the time. As you have surmised - the large FTO's promise of jobs for the boys comes with so many strings and caveats that it really isn't worth the cold hard cash outside of the boom years.

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