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Old 21st Apr 2008, 21:55
  #33 (permalink)  
jezbowman
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Leicestershire
Age: 44
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Nobody there was impartial.
Apart from GAPAN... almost.

WWW, I spent a good 45 minutes talking to one of your orange friends on the GAPAN stand. He made more sense than any of the others and it was worth my while travelling down to LHR just for that conversation alone.

It was a good day. I enjoyed asking various people how the price of oil, economic downturn and credit crunch would affect them. The common was to ask me how many jobs are in the back of Flight this week. Another fine example of reading the METAR as a TAF; these guys are either oblivious or in denial.

IMHO, fatter oil prices open up potential for further exploration, pushing peak oil further into the future. I doubt we will ever see < $100 oil again, but profitability for future extraction has been increased. There is no shortage of oil at the moment; OPEC said today that they believe there is a daily surplus. Trading uncertainties are the cause of high fuel prices.

The global downturn and life without cheap borrowing is the real worry here. It WILL be nasty. Do not assume that people "need" holidays and will continue to fly. Ten years ago, BMI charged circa. £500 for a round trip EMA-EDI. People used to pay that kind of money, but NOT MANY. Yes, bums on seats can go down as well as up. Your home may be repossessed if you cannot meet the repayments...
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