Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
This is the worst airline crisis since 1991. That is all you really need to know. Plan accordingly.
WWW
ps <whisper> Don't do the ATPL exams or the IRT.
WWW
ps <whisper> Don't do the ATPL exams or the IRT.
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ps <whisper> Don't do the ATPL exams or the IRT.
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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I would agree with WWW, now approaching the back-end of 2008, I would be tempted to put off any financial commitment towards training until next year...this winter is going to be interesting to watch...
But to quote Mt Stephen Green, HSBC Chairman:
Right, early morning Benidorm for me!
But to quote Mt Stephen Green, HSBC Chairman:
Ultimately the real economy will recover from the crisis, although it may get worse before it gets better
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Oil price coming off but still biting.... horrible numbers from Air France-KLM and Iberia... Iberia and Air France-KLM profits hit by soaring oil price - Times Online
The oil price is the smoke and mirrors show that distracts investors from the real problem - the recession and the collapse in bookings stemming from that.
A couple of tenners or a couple of hundred quid fuel surcharge are peanuts in the overall travel/leisure spend. Its the fact that the recession and house price crash will result in people not going on trips AT ALL at ANY PRICE that is the intractable issue the airlines don't really like to talk about.
Oil could go right back to £10 but the resulting £15 quid off a low cost flight to Spain or £200 of fuel surcharge being removed from a long haul flight ain't going to entice someone to travel whose overtime has been cancelled, job is under threat, house is in negative equity or company has gone bust. And there will be millions of those.
The biggest credit bubble the world has ever seen by several factors is contracting. It has gone about one third of the way.
If that.
WWW
A couple of tenners or a couple of hundred quid fuel surcharge are peanuts in the overall travel/leisure spend. Its the fact that the recession and house price crash will result in people not going on trips AT ALL at ANY PRICE that is the intractable issue the airlines don't really like to talk about.
Oil could go right back to £10 but the resulting £15 quid off a low cost flight to Spain or £200 of fuel surcharge being removed from a long haul flight ain't going to entice someone to travel whose overtime has been cancelled, job is under threat, house is in negative equity or company has gone bust. And there will be millions of those.
The biggest credit bubble the world has ever seen by several factors is contracting. It has gone about one third of the way.
If that.
WWW
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Optomistic thread. Thanks a bunch.
Well thats it then! I give up!! Gonna take up smoking and heavy drinking. Also I feel a little sciatica coming on so im off down to the DSS.
By the way, has anyone seen Thomas Harrison? he'd know what to do.
By the way, has anyone seen Thomas Harrison? he'd know what to do.
I'd love to know if the state of the economy has effected places like Oxford Aviation Academy and Cabair's intake. A friend of mine has pulled his place at OAA for September. A good idea IMO.
S88
S88
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has anyone seen Thomas Harrison? he'd know what to do.
Hear Hear!
We need the sage and balanced viewpoint of this, proon's most valued commentator, to guide us through these times of woe...
We need the sage and balanced viewpoint of this, proon's most valued commentator, to guide us through these times of woe...
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Intersting article confirming what we knew of the now present surplus from another Ppruner.
Pilot shortage moves to pilot surplus
Pilot shortage moves to pilot surplus
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Certainly is a worrying time, things do not look good and to make matters worse my dad has just been made redundant after ten years service...no prizes for guessing which industry, although it will probably take two guesses! 
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I apologise if this has already been said, but unless you are going the integrated route, training is not all or nothing. You could do the PPL and start hour building, do your three hundred mile cross country and even your multi rating while waiting for the economy to bottom out. The clock only starts ticking once you've passed the last of the ATPL writtens.
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haven't posted in a while because i finally started at oxford and let me say it's the best thing i've ever done (i hope i'll be saying that when i graduate 
)
UK mortgage lending 'levels off'
cheer up it's not all bad
)UK mortgage lending 'levels off'
cheer up it's not all bad
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61 pages and WWW is still banging out the doom and gloom.............. High time this thread was put to bed along with WWW's predictions on oil at $200 a barrel by Christmas.
As yet I have not seen the end of the world as we know it, Negative equity is just a state of mind unless you intend to sell right now, the economic slowdown is happening but it is mostly due to panic and the real danger is to the low service (sorry low cost) sector that is going to loose the three or four week end trips that people do each year, not the charter operators who service the "main" family holiday market. the truth is that most of the chavs would sell granny before giving up the families two weeks in the sun!
As yet I have not seen the end of the world as we know it, Negative equity is just a state of mind unless you intend to sell right now, the economic slowdown is happening but it is mostly due to panic and the real danger is to the low service (sorry low cost) sector that is going to loose the three or four week end trips that people do each year, not the charter operators who service the "main" family holiday market. the truth is that most of the chavs would sell granny before giving up the families two weeks in the sun!
Last edited by A and C; 26th Aug 2008 at 22:13.
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"Put to bed" I think that's for the sake of those of you who are still fearful that WWW and his clan might just say something that you don't wish to hear. It's important to take it on the chin and actually ponder over the facts and indeed an informed opinion or two such as our dear moderator's 
Sure the prediction of oil of $200 a barrel isn't an exacting target even speculators can't be that accurate, it's all a best guess theory game if you see what I mean. Nevertheless closer inspection of the oil price will show it's willingness to leap upwards faster than it recedes back into the shadows just above the $100 mark. It is still armed for an explosion especially as the Iran issue is far from resolved and with an election coming about in just a few months over in the US they may well kick off the party earlier rather than later. It will send oil up like a space shuttle lauch and fuel inflation to dizzy heights. Aviation is like a kid with all manner of allergies and always in the process of suffering from something or another and any economic variable that begins heading south has an effect. Unlike other industries that can manoeuvre into other revenue streams aviation can't it simply flies people and cargo and there's not much else it can do. It cannot shift premises like high street stores or merge cinemas, restaurants, bars, bowling allies into a single complex or concentrate on non-food items to boost fortunes. Thus it's quite a slow moving target that is all too easily engulfed in any economic storm.
The issue of putting it to bed is one that I can symphathise with but we need to keep it open whilst the global economic events unfold by the day, week and month so that wannabes and even experienced drivers know the score out there in the wilderness. However it's not your role to convert WWW you need to accept that he has his standpoint and views and that will actually help to define/justify yours relative to his. It's just a simple discussion we are having here peeps so please don't get upset it's for the benefit and knowledge of all. Just be cool.
Come on boogie down
Sure the prediction of oil of $200 a barrel isn't an exacting target even speculators can't be that accurate, it's all a best guess theory game if you see what I mean. Nevertheless closer inspection of the oil price will show it's willingness to leap upwards faster than it recedes back into the shadows just above the $100 mark. It is still armed for an explosion especially as the Iran issue is far from resolved and with an election coming about in just a few months over in the US they may well kick off the party earlier rather than later. It will send oil up like a space shuttle lauch and fuel inflation to dizzy heights. Aviation is like a kid with all manner of allergies and always in the process of suffering from something or another and any economic variable that begins heading south has an effect. Unlike other industries that can manoeuvre into other revenue streams aviation can't it simply flies people and cargo and there's not much else it can do. It cannot shift premises like high street stores or merge cinemas, restaurants, bars, bowling allies into a single complex or concentrate on non-food items to boost fortunes. Thus it's quite a slow moving target that is all too easily engulfed in any economic storm.
The issue of putting it to bed is one that I can symphathise with but we need to keep it open whilst the global economic events unfold by the day, week and month so that wannabes and even experienced drivers know the score out there in the wilderness. However it's not your role to convert WWW you need to accept that he has his standpoint and views and that will actually help to define/justify yours relative to his. It's just a simple discussion we are having here peeps so please don't get upset it's for the benefit and knowledge of all. Just be cool.
Come on boogie down
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b-n's summed it up nicely imo. Don't shoot the messenger because he's the bearer of bad tidings, take on board the words of experience and plan accordingly. I've done all this crap once before and in the future I am planning on doing it all again 
, don't ask me why I, I wont tell you. What I will tell you is that i've seen this all before as i'm sure www has and his advice backs up what I am hearing from a few of friends of mine who are flight crew. At least one large UK airline (I wont say which in case it contrvines PPRUNE t's & c's) is offering either early retirement/voluntary redundancy (I don't recall which) as well as unpaid leave, i'm sure if you ask around though you'll find out easily enough.
One glimmer of good news is that Ryan Air has aircraft still to be delivered from the factory and will still be growing but not at the rate it was originally intending or at a slower rate (source BBC radio). The bad news there is I heard that Ryan Air are looking to other airlines (AA?) who are laying off to fill their vacancies (source PPRUNE, probably Rumours and News).
My advice would be to heed WW's advice and hold fire on the exams, i've seen lots of students finish with a frozen ATPL during a down turn and have no where to go, i've lost touch with most over the years but afaik some did get jobs after several years (during the last up turn) but others are still trying or have given up. Maximise your chances by trying to finish up when the next up turn is upon us (dragging out your training if necessary).
It doesn't help anyone to accuse those who tell it like it is of being doom and gloom mongers just because you don't like what you are hearing. The advice may not be entirely altruistic in that they may be seeking employment themselves (I don't know) and they don't need loads more wet behind the ears wannabees flooding the market but the advice is genuine and realistic.
, don't ask me why I, I wont tell you. What I will tell you is that i've seen this all before as i'm sure www has and his advice backs up what I am hearing from a few of friends of mine who are flight crew. At least one large UK airline (I wont say which in case it contrvines PPRUNE t's & c's) is offering either early retirement/voluntary redundancy (I don't recall which) as well as unpaid leave, i'm sure if you ask around though you'll find out easily enough. One glimmer of good news is that Ryan Air has aircraft still to be delivered from the factory and will still be growing but not at the rate it was originally intending or at a slower rate (source BBC radio). The bad news there is I heard that Ryan Air are looking to other airlines (AA?) who are laying off to fill their vacancies (source PPRUNE, probably Rumours and News).
My advice would be to heed WW's advice and hold fire on the exams, i've seen lots of students finish with a frozen ATPL during a down turn and have no where to go, i've lost touch with most over the years but afaik some did get jobs after several years (during the last up turn) but others are still trying or have given up. Maximise your chances by trying to finish up when the next up turn is upon us (dragging out your training if necessary).
It doesn't help anyone to accuse those who tell it like it is of being doom and gloom mongers just because you don't like what you are hearing. The advice may not be entirely altruistic in that they may be seeking employment themselves (I don't know) and they don't need loads more wet behind the ears wannabees flooding the market but the advice is genuine and realistic.
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 27th Aug 2008 at 10:57.