Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Join Date: Mar 2008
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What about the 100sands of Indian wannabe pilots rushing to US, Malayasia, Phillipines and where ever? Most of these folks are 18-20 yr old, not completed their basic education yet. If they now finish their course and come back say in late 2008 early 2009, get a CPL with 200 hrs, and the recession is in full swing.
For theory's sake lets assume the world comes out of this recession by say 2009 mid-early 2010. Then if aviation jobs increase, the world already has about 7000 almost fresh CPL holders, each holding 200 + hours. So where are the jobs for those who want to now 'invest' during the recession?
For the information of all. Currently (as of March 08) there are about 7000 Indian wannabe pilots studying in various schools across the world. Before the recession hits us all, may be 3000 more such folks would have started their studies. If we say 50% of these do get their CPL licences at all, we are still seeing about 5000 new pilots waiting for jobs in 2009-2010
For theory's sake lets assume the world comes out of this recession by say 2009 mid-early 2010. Then if aviation jobs increase, the world already has about 7000 almost fresh CPL holders, each holding 200 + hours. So where are the jobs for those who want to now 'invest' during the recession?
For the information of all. Currently (as of March 08) there are about 7000 Indian wannabe pilots studying in various schools across the world. Before the recession hits us all, may be 3000 more such folks would have started their studies. If we say 50% of these do get their CPL licences at all, we are still seeing about 5000 new pilots waiting for jobs in 2009-2010
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To FTO or not to FTO
So in essense you guys feel that the supply is far greater than the demand for F/O's right now fresh from an FTO?
Even fresh from an FTO with min hours surely there are other options rather than trying to get into an airline? i.e. flight instructor?
Even fresh from an FTO with min hours surely there are other options rather than trying to get into an airline? i.e. flight instructor?
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Erm..
I was under the impression from the plethora of other links on PPrune that this was perhaps one of the better times to be entering the industry for a newbie.
Expaning airlines, global pilot shortages etc. Its all i've read and heard about for the last 12 months.
Perhaps the state of the economy is a material consideration here in the UK and the States, but possibly not such an issue in countries such as Australia, Asia etc.....
Expaning airlines, global pilot shortages etc. Its all i've read and heard about for the last 12 months.
Perhaps the state of the economy is a material consideration here in the UK and the States, but possibly not such an issue in countries such as Australia, Asia etc.....
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Yeah but do you qualify from a residency basis for the jobs in Asia/Australia??
However I was mentioning it simply to say that the state of play globally isn't all immediate doom and gloom, and if people have the opporuntity to study and work o'seas then maybe its a good option if it looks like the UK and the US have tough times ahead.
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Australasia
I'm training in New Zealand and the guys qualifying ahead of me as C-cat instructors are getting jobs immediately at the school as the more experienced instructors are being snapped up by airlines or going to Australia. Things are looking good really but I'm still glad my student loan is interest free!
Earth to Wannabes - come in Wannabes...
I don't quite know where to start with just this afternoons crop of misery. Lets try this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnitaly103.xml
Alitalia on brink of bankruptcy as Air France-KLM talks collapse
Do you have ANY idea of how many highly experienced pilots this airline could potentially release onto the open market in the coming weeks?!
Or
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7328191.stm
BAE confirms it will cut 600 jobs. Defence company BAE has confirmed it will cut almost 600 jobs at its Brough site, near Hull and its Woodford plant near Manchester.
Watch out - there's unemployment about..
Or
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3673935.ece
Bank of England warns mortgage famine to worsen
Hell's Teeth - there goes the housing market..
Or
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/03/news...ptcy/index.htm
ATA Airlines files for bankruptcy.The airline, founded in 1973, served major business centers - including Chicago, Dallas and Oakland - and popular vacation spots throughout the United States, including Hawaii, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. The airline also operated as a leading carrier for the U.S. military.
It operated 29 aircraft, including Boeing 737-800s, Boeing 757-200s, Boeing 757-300s, DC10s and Lockheed L-1011s.
At the time of its shutdown, ATA employed approximately 2,230 people, including approximately 600 pilots
So. We have housing market meltdown, airline starting to go bust in the US and the EU and job losses starting to emerge in the UK.
THIS IS NOT A MINOR SLOWDOWN. There is a financial hurricane on the weather radar for all airlines and EU and US ones in particular. Not all are going to be flying once it has passed. It will be deeply unpleasant for Wannabes.
You have been warned.
WWW
I don't quite know where to start with just this afternoons crop of misery. Lets try this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnitaly103.xml
Alitalia on brink of bankruptcy as Air France-KLM talks collapse
Do you have ANY idea of how many highly experienced pilots this airline could potentially release onto the open market in the coming weeks?!
Or
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7328191.stm
BAE confirms it will cut 600 jobs. Defence company BAE has confirmed it will cut almost 600 jobs at its Brough site, near Hull and its Woodford plant near Manchester.
Watch out - there's unemployment about..
Or
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3673935.ece
Bank of England warns mortgage famine to worsen
Hell's Teeth - there goes the housing market..
Or
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/03/news...ptcy/index.htm
ATA Airlines files for bankruptcy.The airline, founded in 1973, served major business centers - including Chicago, Dallas and Oakland - and popular vacation spots throughout the United States, including Hawaii, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. The airline also operated as a leading carrier for the U.S. military.
It operated 29 aircraft, including Boeing 737-800s, Boeing 757-200s, Boeing 757-300s, DC10s and Lockheed L-1011s.
At the time of its shutdown, ATA employed approximately 2,230 people, including approximately 600 pilots
So. We have housing market meltdown, airline starting to go bust in the US and the EU and job losses starting to emerge in the UK.
THIS IS NOT A MINOR SLOWDOWN. There is a financial hurricane on the weather radar for all airlines and EU and US ones in particular. Not all are going to be flying once it has passed. It will be deeply unpleasant for Wannabes.
You have been warned.
WWW
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Thanks for that WWW.
Just what I need in week before first block of ATPL theory exams
Are you sure you are not Scots....sure remind me of a Scots bloke that was in Dad's Army
Just what I need in week before first block of ATPL theory exams
Are you sure you are not Scots....sure remind me of a Scots bloke that was in Dad's Army
Don't get me wrong. Like a great many people I have benefited from the economic growth and house price inflation of the last ten years. I know that nobody knows for certain the near future in the world of economics. I have a bullish attitude to life and money. Though this year I am a big grisly bear.
Its 18 years on in the cycle from the last recession. One is due. There is a phoney war at present. Although the sound of gunfire in the form of two thirds of mortgage products being withdrawn since August is just audible to most.
Belts are tightening, costs are rising, taxes are increasing, credit is tightening, houses are falling and airlines WILL be hit. Hard. They always are in every recession.
If you didn't know this then please be advised that it is so. It happens quicker and harder than anyone expects at the time.
Its NOT different this time.
WWW
Its 18 years on in the cycle from the last recession. One is due. There is a phoney war at present. Although the sound of gunfire in the form of two thirds of mortgage products being withdrawn since August is just audible to most.
Belts are tightening, costs are rising, taxes are increasing, credit is tightening, houses are falling and airlines WILL be hit. Hard. They always are in every recession.
If you didn't know this then please be advised that it is so. It happens quicker and harder than anyone expects at the time.
Its NOT different this time.
WWW
Join Date: Jan 2008
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I go into this with open eyes and I must admit that this thread does worry me.
but what should wannabes do? just give up? at the age of 33 I can't really afford to sit and wait it out.
what I do know is that The pilots I know have all one thing in common (apart from luck
) in that they were doggedly determined to get to where they are now, and when I ask them "if someone told YOU whilst training, stop now it's not worth it, would you?" they all say the same thing.
My wish is to be an instructor, If I make that I will be ecstatic. my job is teaching, my love is flying. but instructing jobs will of course will also be affected by any downturn. so maybe part time, maybe I will have to travel far across the world. whatever it takes.
WWW you're posts are very sobering, and give a realistic insight into the immense problems ahead for newly qualified pilots (and I'm sure many experienced ones). but I'm curious, if you were a wannabe just now, would you give it up?
Regards
D-G
Edit - what i forgot to say was that the current uncertainty (and this thread) has made may alter my plans, I decided after the many downturn warnings to go directly from CPL to FI rating, instead of doing an IR first. Time to try and get a foot in the door I think
but what should wannabes do? just give up? at the age of 33 I can't really afford to sit and wait it out.
what I do know is that The pilots I know have all one thing in common (apart from luck
) in that they were doggedly determined to get to where they are now, and when I ask them "if someone told YOU whilst training, stop now it's not worth it, would you?" they all say the same thing.My wish is to be an instructor, If I make that I will be ecstatic. my job is teaching, my love is flying. but instructing jobs will of course will also be affected by any downturn. so maybe part time, maybe I will have to travel far across the world. whatever it takes.
WWW you're posts are very sobering, and give a realistic insight into the immense problems ahead for newly qualified pilots (and I'm sure many experienced ones). but I'm curious, if you were a wannabe just now, would you give it up?
Regards
D-G
Edit - what i forgot to say was that the current uncertainty (and this thread) has made may alter my plans, I decided after the many downturn warnings to go directly from CPL to FI rating, instead of doing an IR first. Time to try and get a foot in the door I think
Last edited by Dane-Ger; 3rd Apr 2008 at 17:45.
At your age I would feel guilty about exposing my family to the risks and lifestyle of a career changing pilot. I wouldn't do it.
Life as an instructor is ****. I've done it at volunteer level, PPL level and CPL/IR level. Its **** and poorly paid. You will hate it and I'll stamp over your rose tinted glasses if you don't.
If I were a Wannabe right now then YES I'd stop training . My job prospects would be rubbish and getting worse. I'd do something else. Flying is driving taxis in the air. There is no glamour. There are no riches.
BE very very careful.
WWW
Life as an instructor is ****. I've done it at volunteer level, PPL level and CPL/IR level. Its **** and poorly paid. You will hate it and I'll stamp over your rose tinted glasses if you don't.
If I were a Wannabe right now then YES I'd stop training . My job prospects would be rubbish and getting worse. I'd do something else. Flying is driving taxis in the air. There is no glamour. There are no riches.
BE very very careful.
WWW
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I see all the evidence, its there for all to see. Everythings going to hell and all signs point to it getting worse. All my instinct tells me to stop spending my hard earned on training for a career that i may never get a sniff at. Problem is dreams aren't born from common sense......I feel like the idiot looking for the end of the rainbow.
As always WWW offers only sound advice, but i suspect nobody will heed the warnings, I know i wont (at my age its now or never). Only myself to blame though if it all goes wrong, i'll make sure i save enough to buy the Welshman a beer for at least trying to warn us off.
As always WWW offers only sound advice, but i suspect nobody will heed the warnings, I know i wont (at my age its now or never). Only myself to blame though if it all goes wrong, i'll make sure i save enough to buy the Welshman a beer for at least trying to warn us off.
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Thankyou for your honest reply.
Firstly with regards to my family, we have decided to travel no matter what, we have lived abroad before and it is something we enjoy, so at worst six months in Florida will be an experience for them.
secondly, I know the money is crap as an instructor, but I have been lucky with property, we will get by, money is not the driving factor in this decision.
Maybe I will hate it, I doubt it, I teach already and enjoy it enormously, I would rather combine both and fly and teach. And you can't seriously tell me there is no thrill in seeing a student gaining his license or going on a first solo?
and lastly, there is no glamour in being an instructor anyway, I have no intentions of working for an airline, so I guess driving a taxi in the air is the height of my ambitions.
I guess the worst case scenario is we have a six month holiday that costs us 400k. I can live with that, and if all else fails I will always be able to return to teaching maths (fortunately recessions don't affect public schools).
regards (with rose tinted specs intact
)
D-G
Firstly with regards to my family, we have decided to travel no matter what, we have lived abroad before and it is something we enjoy, so at worst six months in Florida will be an experience for them.
secondly, I know the money is crap as an instructor, but I have been lucky with property, we will get by, money is not the driving factor in this decision.
Maybe I will hate it, I doubt it, I teach already and enjoy it enormously, I would rather combine both and fly and teach. And you can't seriously tell me there is no thrill in seeing a student gaining his license or going on a first solo?
and lastly, there is no glamour in being an instructor anyway, I have no intentions of working for an airline, so I guess driving a taxi in the air is the height of my ambitions.
I guess the worst case scenario is we have a six month holiday that costs us 400k. I can live with that, and if all else fails I will always be able to return to teaching maths (fortunately recessions don't affect public schools).
regards (with rose tinted specs intact
)D-G
I salute every man who takes the plunge right now. I'll support you.
Those that think instructing at a basic level is rewarding or enough to support a family then you are wrong. Its poorly paid dangerous and monotonous work that destroys your soul. Every other PPL instuctor who wants a flightdeck agrees with me. I don't have to ask..
WWW
Those that think instructing at a basic level is rewarding or enough to support a family then you are wrong. Its poorly paid dangerous and monotonous work that destroys your soul. Every other PPL instuctor who wants a flightdeck agrees with me. I don't have to ask..
WWW
Join Date: Sep 2006
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WWW you are doing a great job. Hopefully when I come to apply with airlines in a about 4 years from now there will be a few less people to compete against thanks to you.
If it all goes kaput I will have a good degree to fall back on, but I don't think (hope) I will need it.
I remember seeing a programme a few years back about an imminent house price crash, experts told people to sell up and rent, waiting for the prices to fall massively then cash in, they are still waiting....
Wonder what the mood is like at investment wannabe forums
If it all goes kaput I will have a good degree to fall back on, but I don't think (hope) I will need it.
I remember seeing a programme a few years back about an imminent house price crash, experts told people to sell up and rent, waiting for the prices to fall massively then cash in, they are still waiting....
Wonder what the mood is like at investment wannabe forums
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I would hope the challenge of making a career from instructing, and moving on to advanced instructing / examining would make it more attractive and less monotonous.
but only one way to find out.
btw, your advice IS appreciated, you are right, the most sensible thing would probably just be to stop. unfortunately I can't.
anyway, I have theory exams in 4 days so I'd better get back to studying or the only thing I'll be flying is a computer game!
regards
D-G
but only one way to find out.
btw, your advice IS appreciated, you are right, the most sensible thing would probably just be to stop. unfortunately I can't.
anyway, I have theory exams in 4 days so I'd better get back to studying or the only thing I'll be flying is a computer game!
regards
D-G
Join Date: Mar 2008
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On a lighter note, its not all doom and gloom
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7327762.stm
The economy is impossible to predict, but yes, i do see the dip continuing into the forthcoming months, possibly into later next year. This is no 1929, more of an early 90's downtrun -- we can't expect continuous growth forever. I'm almost certain its not as bad as the pessimistic's are leading you to belive.
Chris.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7327762.stm
The economy is impossible to predict, but yes, i do see the dip continuing into the forthcoming months, possibly into later next year. This is no 1929, more of an early 90's downtrun -- we can't expect continuous growth forever. I'm almost certain its not as bad as the pessimistic's are leading you to belive.
Chris.
Join Date: Nov 2006
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Oh ****
ohh ****ttt im on the back end of my training and this thread really scares me.
but maybe people could be wrong about this has the dynamics of the world economy not changed with the rise of China and India and this is just shaking the boat.
however im probably out of my debt but
I think it would be a good time for someone to come up with an
innovative way of flying without oil ,Nuclear doubt its possible though,
bio fuels ?solar powered plane test flight this year .
but maybe people could be wrong about this has the dynamics of the world economy not changed with the rise of China and India and this is just shaking the boat.
however im probably out of my debt but
I think it would be a good time for someone to come up with an
innovative way of flying without oil ,Nuclear doubt its possible though,
bio fuels ?solar powered plane test flight this year .
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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Within my company there is still quite alot of movement going on to pastures new, mainly due to BA's recruitment drive and holiday bookings are apparently higher than this time last year - so far, no-one seems to be giving up the annual holiday! And, like Thomas Cook, I wouldn't be suprised if a few more CTC cadets are taken on next year...
Rumours of the Emirate's payrise, 25%-30%, may generate some massive movement throughout Europe as the Middle East become worth it again!!!????
Rumours of the Emirate's payrise, 25%-30%, may generate some massive movement throughout Europe as the Middle East become worth it again!!!????