What about the 100sands of Indian wannabe pilots rushing to US, Malayasia, Phillipines and where ever? Most of these folks are 18-20 yr old, not completed their basic education yet. If they now finish their course and come back say in late 2008 early 2009, get a CPL with 200 hrs, and the recession is in full swing.
For theory's sake lets assume the world comes out of this recession by say 2009 mid-early 2010. Then if aviation jobs increase, the world already has about 7000 almost fresh CPL holders, each holding 200 + hours. So where are the jobs for those who want to now 'invest' during the recession?
For the information of all. Currently (as of March 08) there are about 7000 Indian wannabe pilots studying in various schools across the world. Before the recession hits us all, may be 3000 more such folks would have started their studies. If we say 50% of these do get their CPL licences at all, we are still seeing about 5000 new pilots waiting for jobs in 2009-2010