Met Office Weather Forecast? Hmmmmmmm....
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I use Metcheck, Xc weather and the met office, compare the usually different interpretations of the information available to them, then have a look at the surface pressure charts and the rainfall radar. Then I'm in a position to try and understand what's happening! The mk 1 eyeball is then brought into use and a decision taken accordingly....
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....that the UK MO does not actually make its 3D model - tephigrams - available other than to heavily paying commercial users anyway....
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/ . Although the Met Office won't let you and me have raw data without cash, they have agreements with other world service providers such as NOAA to share each other's data. And most other providers around the world do it for free, because they are supported by local taxpayers. They happily upload all the data they have whatever it's source. Wetterzentrale collates a lot of this stuff and you'll find it under "TopKarten". You'll find Met Office synoptics under Topkarten > Fax > Bracknell, and more of their material under Topkarten > UKMO.
B
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Met Forecasts
I just got back from a fantastic weekend in Sweden.
4.6 hrs EGBJ to ESSL on Friday IFR @ FL110.
The Vatternrundan - 300km on a bike in 10 hrs on Saturday.
5.4 hrs ESSL to EGBJ today IFR @ FL120.
For my forecast I used:
European Aviation Weather Centre - USAF prog charts for a general view
European Significant wx charts - for cloud masses, tops and CB location
Flitestar Wx subscription - plans best route wrt winds aloft
Met Office 414/415 - for a second opinion on the above
All forecasts were pretty accurate but the Met Office was the most pessimistic in both directions from the point of view of having fully fledged fronts/troughs when other sites didn't even show a front. Although there was plenty of convection around it was easy to route around it.
Weather on the ride was good too!
SB
4.6 hrs EGBJ to ESSL on Friday IFR @ FL110.
The Vatternrundan - 300km on a bike in 10 hrs on Saturday.
5.4 hrs ESSL to EGBJ today IFR @ FL120.
For my forecast I used:
European Aviation Weather Centre - USAF prog charts for a general view
European Significant wx charts - for cloud masses, tops and CB location
Flitestar Wx subscription - plans best route wrt winds aloft
Met Office 414/415 - for a second opinion on the above
All forecasts were pretty accurate but the Met Office was the most pessimistic in both directions from the point of view of having fully fledged fronts/troughs when other sites didn't even show a front. Although there was plenty of convection around it was easy to route around it.
Weather on the ride was good too!
SB
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All forecasts were pretty accurate but the Met Office was the most pessimistic in both directions from the point of view of having fully fledged fronts/troughs when other sites didn't even show a front.
Looking back over my records of the past winter, a less confident pilot than myself would have lost out on a signifiacnet number of days flying if they had based their decisions on the Met Office forecast
My main concern is that the timings of ' weather events' is woeful and can be up to 12 hours out. In May I was at the airfield waiting for the forecast event (plagues of locusts, cats and dogs etc etc) to go through, but it never arrived and contrary to the forecast - died away before getting anywhere near to our site.
I had a great day, because of my cynicism, but the club had 9 cancellations based on the morning TAF, Airmet, 215 etc etc
Yes, as we gain experience we can start to look at the weather with a semi-professional eye, but early solo or newly-qualified pilots are more susceptible to being put off by pessimistic forecasts. These are where clubs make money, but are being hampered by poor forecasting
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I cannot see where on that site one can find tephigrams or any other UKMO 3D data.
I'm not sure of the point of obtaining raw met data. The big organisations use the largest computers in the world with a room full of PhDs writing incredibly complex program to run on them and they still can't get it right some of the time. What chance does a PPL have from looking at pressure and temperature data at a few places in the UK?
What you can do is what the forecasters do - look at the output of the various models, which can be found at my earlier offering of Wetterzentrale, and try and make an educated guess at what is actually going to happen. Of course the average PPL has a few hours of education and the pros have a lifetime - but what the hell, it's a prediction.....
B
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Bern,
Thank you for that link. In the Univ of Cologne you have discovered a second (the first was the University of Wyoming) source for actual baloon ascents. This goes straight into my collection of really useful weather sites
A Tephigram, also known (in a similar form) as a skew-t, is simply a diagram showing how the temperature and dew point vary with altitude.
The most obvious use is to establish cloud bottoms and, for IFR pilots, cloud tops. I will email/PM you some info on this.
The above URLs give actual data but it tends to happen only at 0000Z and 1200Z which while often very useful is often too old. One is after forecast tephigrams.
This is not "raw data" as such - it is data generated from the computer models. Forecasters use tephigrams to work out all kinds of stuff which the plebs get in the form of TAFs, SigWx, and the BBC TV weather forecast...
However I cannot find forecast UKMO tephigrams data on your site. The only forecast tephigrams I know of are found on various sites which serve the U.S. GFS weather model e.g. NOAA.
Thank you for that link. In the Univ of Cologne you have discovered a second (the first was the University of Wyoming) source for actual baloon ascents. This goes straight into my collection of really useful weather sites
A Tephigram, also known (in a similar form) as a skew-t, is simply a diagram showing how the temperature and dew point vary with altitude.
The most obvious use is to establish cloud bottoms and, for IFR pilots, cloud tops. I will email/PM you some info on this.
The above URLs give actual data but it tends to happen only at 0000Z and 1200Z which while often very useful is often too old. One is after forecast tephigrams.
This is not "raw data" as such - it is data generated from the computer models. Forecasters use tephigrams to work out all kinds of stuff which the plebs get in the form of TAFs, SigWx, and the BBC TV weather forecast...
However I cannot find forecast UKMO tephigrams data on your site. The only forecast tephigrams I know of are found on various sites which serve the U.S. GFS weather model e.g. NOAA.
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Not sure of the data's source (i.e. whether it's based on UKMO or not) but you'll find forecast ascents (tephis) at http://weather.scorer.homelinux.org/RASPviewer.html as well as a host of other stuff that some of us use.
For those pilots who demand more accurate forecasts can I suggest that you move to somewhere which has predictable weather that isn't influenced by, among other things:
The fact that were an island with much localised weather
We're off the coast of a large land mass
We're on the edge of a sizeable mass of ocean
There's the potential for airmasses to come from the polar, tropical and maritime regions
That the UK is several hundred miles long and you expect a forecast to be accurate for a 20Nm area when weather fronts extend several thousand miles
So, if you want accurate forecasts, move to Nevada (it'll be hot and dry).
If you'd like reliable, consistently accurate weather forecasts in the UK then you're out of luck. The only accurate forecast is an aftercast and, even then, some of the forecasters will disagree about why the weather did what it did!
Forecasters are great at pulling together all the pieces of data they have about what's happening now and what's happened in the past and providing an assessment of what 'could' happen. Sometimes they can be 100% confident of their prediction (Winter in the UK tends to be cold for example and if there's a satpic show a solid layer of CuNims rolling in on a front then it's pretty much like that it's going to be wet). Most of the time though it's a best guess. If you think that you ca do it better then go ahead. If you develop a model that works better than the existing ones then you'll be very rich. It'll probably be good for choosing stock market movements too!
Final point - treat forecasts as a general guide (e.g. wet, low cloud and a NW'ly wind) and be mindful that, like any other FORECAST, it may OR MAY NOT be right. Use your own judgement!
For those pilots who demand more accurate forecasts can I suggest that you move to somewhere which has predictable weather that isn't influenced by, among other things:
The fact that were an island with much localised weather
We're off the coast of a large land mass
We're on the edge of a sizeable mass of ocean
There's the potential for airmasses to come from the polar, tropical and maritime regions
That the UK is several hundred miles long and you expect a forecast to be accurate for a 20Nm area when weather fronts extend several thousand miles
So, if you want accurate forecasts, move to Nevada (it'll be hot and dry).
If you'd like reliable, consistently accurate weather forecasts in the UK then you're out of luck. The only accurate forecast is an aftercast and, even then, some of the forecasters will disagree about why the weather did what it did!
Forecasters are great at pulling together all the pieces of data they have about what's happening now and what's happened in the past and providing an assessment of what 'could' happen. Sometimes they can be 100% confident of their prediction (Winter in the UK tends to be cold for example and if there's a satpic show a solid layer of CuNims rolling in on a front then it's pretty much like that it's going to be wet). Most of the time though it's a best guess. If you think that you ca do it better then go ahead. If you develop a model that works better than the existing ones then you'll be very rich. It'll probably be good for choosing stock market movements too!
Final point - treat forecasts as a general guide (e.g. wet, low cloud and a NW'ly wind) and be mindful that, like any other FORECAST, it may OR MAY NOT be right. Use your own judgement!
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As usual I have arrived late on this thread and my comments may not be relevant or perhaps they belong elsewhere.
I have just been reading the "Changes to Civilian TAF issue/validity times" on the Met Office web site. The title might more aptly have read "Downgrading of Service". I operate in the Central Scotland area and from the 5th November 9 hour TAFS will no longer be available for Edinburgh, Glasgow or Prestwick but if I was flying at Carlisle,Dundee or Wick I could still get a 9 hour TAF. Maybe someone can explain the logic of that because it escapes me.
At present I can get forecasts updated every 3 hours; in a few months it will be every 6 hours and these will no doubt be liberally sprinkled with PROB 30's and PROB 40's. Given that the major cause of light aircraft accidents is weather this does not seem to be a step in the right direction.
I understand the official reason for this is to comply with ICAO rules but there are many occasions when a difference is filed and maybe this should be one of them. Remember the golden rule "If it aint broke don't fix it".
Making the right decision is hard enough this will not make it any easier.
I have just been reading the "Changes to Civilian TAF issue/validity times" on the Met Office web site. The title might more aptly have read "Downgrading of Service". I operate in the Central Scotland area and from the 5th November 9 hour TAFS will no longer be available for Edinburgh, Glasgow or Prestwick but if I was flying at Carlisle,Dundee or Wick I could still get a 9 hour TAF. Maybe someone can explain the logic of that because it escapes me.
At present I can get forecasts updated every 3 hours; in a few months it will be every 6 hours and these will no doubt be liberally sprinkled with PROB 30's and PROB 40's. Given that the major cause of light aircraft accidents is weather this does not seem to be a step in the right direction.
I understand the official reason for this is to comply with ICAO rules but there are many occasions when a difference is filed and maybe this should be one of them. Remember the golden rule "If it aint broke don't fix it".
Making the right decision is hard enough this will not make it any easier.
As a glider pilot (as well as a PPL) I'm interested in getting forecasts not only accurate enough to decide if it is safe to fly, but also good enough to enable me to plan cross country flights of up to 200 nm without ending up in a field.
A good starting point is WeatherJack's site
http://s214580749.websitehome.co.uk/
It has links to pretty well all the weather sites that you could ever want. If you select Weather Page, from the home page, then RASP/blipmaps and scroll down you will find all the soundings (Tephigrams) that you are ever likely to need. WeatherJack also provides a tutorial so that you can understand them without needing a PHD in met.
I also subscribe to a German forecaster at
http://www.topmeteo.eu/go/home
This gives me today plus the next three days with a resolution of hourly, every two hours or every three hours depending on budget. They provide different data for aircraft, gliding, paragliding and ballooning. You can chose the geographic area(s) that interest you. If you don't subscribe then you can buy individual charts.
The "Charts GFS (American)" link from WeatherJack is interesting - it gives forecasts much further ahead than most others.
A good starting point is WeatherJack's site
http://s214580749.websitehome.co.uk/
It has links to pretty well all the weather sites that you could ever want. If you select Weather Page, from the home page, then RASP/blipmaps and scroll down you will find all the soundings (Tephigrams) that you are ever likely to need. WeatherJack also provides a tutorial so that you can understand them without needing a PHD in met.
I also subscribe to a German forecaster at
http://www.topmeteo.eu/go/home
This gives me today plus the next three days with a resolution of hourly, every two hours or every three hours depending on budget. They provide different data for aircraft, gliding, paragliding and ballooning. You can chose the geographic area(s) that interest you. If you don't subscribe then you can buy individual charts.
The "Charts GFS (American)" link from WeatherJack is interesting - it gives forecasts much further ahead than most others.
Last edited by Jim59; 16th Jun 2008 at 19:34. Reason: speling
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However I cannot find forecast UKMO tephigrams data on your site. The only forecast tephigrams I know of are found on various sites which serve the U.S. GFS weather model e.g. NOAA.
based on GFS and link provided courtesy of my forecaster friend. Given that I've listened to numerous professional discussions about whether the GFS or UKMO model is correct on a day when they disagree, I would have thought that GFS was as good as anything. And of course my friend says it is in any case better to rely on the professionals - though he would say that. Still, "roomfuls of PhDs and the fastest computers in the world" as I said before.
B
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www.xcweather.co.uk is an excellent website I use all the time.
Also try www.wunderground.com for free, up-to-date METARs and TAFs for around the world.
Smithy
Also try www.wunderground.com for free, up-to-date METARs and TAFs for around the world.
Smithy
At the start of this week, the BBC (ie the Met Office, and indeed the Met Office's website) was forecasting a very pleasant weekend ahead.
Two days later, the forecast is now for rain, rain, and a bit more rain. Then it's going to rain.
How is it possible to get a diametrically different forecast within two days? No, don't answer that - it's a rhetorical question. Looks like I won't be flying this weekend after all.
My point is that why does anyone bother forecasting more than 24 hours ahead, when predictions move to such extremes in such a short space of time?
Despite billions of bits of empirical data, and massive super computers, a bit of seaweed and grannie's arthritis appear to be about as accurate beyond a day.
Two days later, the forecast is now for rain, rain, and a bit more rain. Then it's going to rain.
How is it possible to get a diametrically different forecast within two days? No, don't answer that - it's a rhetorical question. Looks like I won't be flying this weekend after all.
My point is that why does anyone bother forecasting more than 24 hours ahead, when predictions move to such extremes in such a short space of time?
Despite billions of bits of empirical data, and massive super computers, a bit of seaweed and grannie's arthritis appear to be about as accurate beyond a day.
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Here is the Edinburgh TAF (not changed much since early this morning):
TAF EGPH 181150Z 181322 21010KT 9999 FEW020 SCT045 PROB30 TEMPO 1318 8000 SHRA SCT015CB=
And the current METAR (also not changed much):
METAR EGPH 181350Z 26008KT 9999 FEW040 16/09 Q1000
Utter mince. No rain all day, no CBs all day, wind out by quite a bit. Crap. This happens on a regular basis. I sometimes wonder if the MO chucks in PROBs and CBs in TAFs off-the-cuff as an arse-coverer.
TAF EGPH 181150Z 181322 21010KT 9999 FEW020 SCT045 PROB30 TEMPO 1318 8000 SHRA SCT015CB=
And the current METAR (also not changed much):
METAR EGPH 181350Z 26008KT 9999 FEW040 16/09 Q1000
Utter mince. No rain all day, no CBs all day, wind out by quite a bit. Crap. This happens on a regular basis. I sometimes wonder if the MO chucks in PROBs and CBs in TAFs off-the-cuff as an arse-coverer.
Last edited by Captain Smithy; 18th Jun 2008 at 14:28. Reason: Mistake Edited.
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OK Bern, forecast tephigrams from GFS are two a penny.
My original Q was forecast tephigrams from UKMO data.
Whether this matters I don't know. Some say the UKMO model is better for the UK than GFS.
My original Q was forecast tephigrams from UKMO data.
Whether this matters I don't know. Some say the UKMO model is better for the UK than GFS.
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The BBC and met office quite often get the forecast totally wrong. Today for example they said we (where i live) would have rain all day, but none around except down south.
Did no one tell them that warm fronts move at a snails pace.
Did no one tell them that warm fronts move at a snails pace.
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Some say the UKMO model is better for the UK than GFS.
The trouble with predicting weather, apart from it being chaotic, is that it's very big, and a hundred miles north or south really isn't a big deal - unless it's you that gets the unexpected. Nevertheless, there are times when it's possible to be really accurate, and times when it isn't. In the UK, as someone pointed out earlier, we live in a particularly difficult place to forecast, and no amount of whinging can change that.
B
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That is a good example that needs to be reported to the Met Office and the CAA
As I understand it, the CAA gets a report from the Met Office on the performance against performance targets - on cloud and visibility - and has consistently exceeded the targets.
When I queried the usefulness of this, I was told that the CAA only paid a small amount to support weather forecasting, and the Met Office tailored their services to match the funding.
In words of one syllable - if you want more, then you have to pay more.
However, if we, as aviators, wish to raise issues with a forecast, we should let them know directly (and probably copy the CAA in as well). That way we might finally get some better response
As I understand it, the CAA gets a report from the Met Office on the performance against performance targets - on cloud and visibility - and has consistently exceeded the targets.
When I queried the usefulness of this, I was told that the CAA only paid a small amount to support weather forecasting, and the Met Office tailored their services to match the funding.
In words of one syllable - if you want more, then you have to pay more.
However, if we, as aviators, wish to raise issues with a forecast, we should let them know directly (and probably copy the CAA in as well). That way we might finally get some better response
Bern,
While accepting that whinging about rubbish forecasts isn't going to change anything, is it not somewhat surprising that despite the the massively improved tools available to the Met Office, and accepting the UK's particular climatological vagaries, forecasts for a few days hence appear not to be a great deal more accurate than they were twenty years ago?
Anything more than next 24 hours should have a large disclaimer stating "This forecast might be be a load of bollox - or it might not be . . . . "
While accepting that whinging about rubbish forecasts isn't going to change anything, is it not somewhat surprising that despite the the massively improved tools available to the Met Office, and accepting the UK's particular climatological vagaries, forecasts for a few days hence appear not to be a great deal more accurate than they were twenty years ago?
Anything more than next 24 hours should have a large disclaimer stating "This forecast might be be a load of bollox - or it might not be . . . . "
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The minimum ICAO standards for forecasts are in the AIP under GEN 3-5-14 (10 Jul 03). If you want to be bothered gathering the info and comparing it be my guest. It seems that we read the forecasts at work and then .... go. Yeah I know, that's what they pay me for but some days you wonder what planet the forecasters are on. On occasions I've seen just about every variation in a forecast and have been wondering what the code for a plague of locusts was as that was all that seemed to be missing.
Still if the weather out of the window is looking good, go grab an aircraft and enjoy your flying.
Still if the weather out of the window is looking good, go grab an aircraft and enjoy your flying.