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AOPA claim 70% drop out rate

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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 08:33
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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Very true.

A couple of things:

A large % of PPLs are set to give up no matter what. Nearly all the teenagers who got £6k for xmas to do a PPL will give up. Everybody who can't afford it will by definition give up - even if they somehow scrape together the training costs. On top of that you have "change of circumstances" people. I reckon 50% of new PPLs are certain to give up. The attrition rate is also very high in the USA, where there is much more utility. A lot of people just treat the PPL as a personal challenge, like climbing a mountain, running a marathon, getting laid, joining the mile high club

The challenge, if anybody cares, is what to do about the other 40% or so who don't necessarily have to give up. If you could reduce the dropout rate from 90% to 80%, which can't be that hard, the # of people flying would double. Think what that would do for GA business as a whole!

The preflight process can be made much more streamlined. When I fly from the UK to say Greece, do you think I spread out the charts all over the floor and draw lines on them, and working out the wind corrected headings and leg times? I used to do the "charts on the floor bit" when I used to fly VFR only, but even that can be done electronically (Jepp Flitestar with raster charts) without ever buying paper charts. The modern pilot will hit the internet for weather, notams, flight plan filing, GAR form faxing, and use a lightweight laptop for route planning, and will print out enroute sections. I even do this for VFR flights - the paper CAA chart is never looked at. This stuff should be taught in the PPL as an essential operational skill.
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 10:00
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Anecdotal I know, but there you have one possible reason. On a weekend, after a hard week, you can step outside for a walk, leap in the car and go for a spin, head out to the shops with no plan, get in your sailing dinghy and mess about, get on your horse and head for the hills. But you can't ever go flying without lots of preparation. Which means all of us - even IO540 - are to some extent....anoraks.
I do that all the time in the Chippy! Most of the times I go flying I've only a vague idea of where I'm going - and that often changes as the flight progresses. The only 'descision' is where to exit the Liverpool zone. I might set off with the vague idea of a few gentle aeros over Shropshire then drop into Sleap for lunch, but go to a strip instead. There I might meet up with another bimbler who'll suggest a strip I've not been to before. Some days, I leave out the aeros (but never fly S&L for long!) and just go sightseeing at relatively low level, over the Peak or up the Lancashire coast to the Lakes. Just enjoying 'being in the air in a wonderful aeroplane'.

The only times I 'plan' are if I'm going to a fly-in (like maybe G-VFWE) when I draw the lines on the charts and put the waypoints into the Pilot 3.

Most of the time, I just 'bimble'. Some might say that's unadventurous, but I'd stronly disagree. There is a great deal of affordable enjoyment to be had from VFR bimbling - if you have the right aeroplane.

SSD
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 11:41
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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As has been asked before in this thread, what are the comparable stats for dropouts from other hobbies? Skydiving & scuba diving both have pretty high turnover rates.
Most hobbies are started with loads of enthusiasm and wow factor (remember when you discovered sex?) and tend to become less exiting with time/familiarity unless variations can be found (I'd better be careful about the analogies with sex at this point!)
The compensating factor for the familiarity tends to be if a social life goes with the hobby (I can't see why anyone would play golf otherwise!). In this respect turning up at an airfield, grinding around the sky for an hour or so (often by yourself), landing and going off home without barely speaking to anyone is going to get pretty boring after a while - with high costs & bureaucratic hassle as further adverse factors.
So try to do something different with your flying - gliding, tailwheel, aeros, microlights - and join a club which has a social life as well as a cash register!
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 11:59
  #104 (permalink)  

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SSD,

You're quite right. Good point about bimbling. Yes. If you're going on a long trip by foot, horse, boat or car you need to plan too.

IO540,

A lot of people just treat the PPL as a personal challenge, like climbing a mountain, running a marathon, getting laid, joining the mile high club
Except...I never yet heard of anyone who got laid and then decided to give it up!

Excuse the digression...back to aviation.
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 12:05
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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I never yet heard of anyone who got laid and then decided to give it up!
I've heard of some women who gave up but presumably it wasn't very good; maybe they were looking for some kind of emotional involvement thrown in for good measure. Never heard of a bloke having a problem like that though
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 12:18
  #106 (permalink)  
 
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Quote:
I never yet heard of anyone who got laid and then decided to give it up!
I've heard of some women who gave up but presumably it wasn't very good; maybe they were looking for some kind of emotional involvement thrown in for good measure. Never heard of a bloke having a problem like that th
ough

Spat my coffee at that one.... I did not realise you knew my ex wife.......
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 12:22
  #107 (permalink)  
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Although

Given we're all still active in GA and haven't given up we're probably the least qualified to discuss why people give up GA. Those that are qualified are doubtlessly, not reading this forum anymore.
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 12:49
  #108 (permalink)  
 
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Very true. I have however spoken to a few who gave up more or less immediately and they tended to say they did not have the confidence to fly for real.

I am certain that for epople who give up very early this is a major factor. The PPL training process is pretty poor in this respect.

For those who give up after say a few years, it can be anything.
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 13:47
  #109 (permalink)  
 
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I was first footing a friend yesterday. He was a keen micro lighter who gave up about 5 years ago.

We chatted about flying and things - he was impressed by the number and capability of the newer 450kg machines, almost got enthusiastic. But then he asked whether the rules had got any easier, whether the club politics had calmed down, whether hangarage was any easier, who much more expensive it might be than it was. Of course I answered negative to all but the last

That all pretty much validated his decision he thought.

The majority of PPLs fly simple machines (even if they are spamcan - they are still simple compared with anything else they own!). And yet we are bound up in a mess of legislation and complexity. The comparison with sailing or shooting or motor sport is always going to show flying as being hopelessly out of touch with any realistic assessment of the relative risks. The rules lack any real logic in some many cases - and then clubs pile in with their own.

An aeroplane shall not fly etc... sets the scene pretty well.

I still love it, I'm still committed to it (must be after 20 odd years) but even I wonder sometimes - make be lord of all for a couple of days - I could sweep the vast majority of it away.........
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 14:50
  #110 (permalink)  
 
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Personally, I'm having an enforced break from flying for a few months - divorce is pending. The upside is once it goes through I won't have anyone questioning my finances, but I have been seriously thinking what I will do next.

Plan is to not rent anymore (apart from essential training), and am going to get a PFA type, prefererably with both (limited) aerobatic and touring capability, and fly from smaller strips.
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 15:03
  #111 (permalink)  
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Whirly :

like climbing a mountain, running a marathon, getting laid, joining the mile high club
Ah, a steady 5280' (with A/P, possibly oscillating +/- 50' non A/P ), marvellous ... allegedly, of course !

Wonder how long it'll be before the EASA/Part-M/SubPart257/CAMO/LAMP/AllwaysWearACondom/NPA/Schedule422.12 Working subgroup gets around to legislating for that one ? I can see it now :-

"No aircraft shall be flown at a steady altitude of 5280 feet unless the pilot shall hold at least a EASA CPL (Commercially Proven Lover) licence with added IR (Instrument Rooting) and have successfully completed the MCC (Mates Condom Corporation) cockpit management course " ...

FF
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 15:15
  #112 (permalink)  
 
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Underneath all this, the PPL training sausage machine grinds away happily, churning out some 3000 new PPLs every year, most of which never get anywhere.
Well I have been teaching guitar to about 120 people per week in the past 5 years and NONE have become professional musicians, but they still did it to enjoy it and (hopefully) still do.

Just because we don't all go on to become airline captains, aerobatic skygods or owners of a high performance state of the art flying machine, one should not be denied the sheer pleasure of learning to fly.

I still think the struggle and the progress through difficulties is the most exciting part of the PPL and perhaps the reason why a lot of people do it.
Going from zero to PPL in my opinion is a bigger cultural shock and steeper learning curve than going, say, from PPL to CPL or instructing.

The difficulties and adventures along the journey are not just part of the journey, but they are THE journey itself.

Ivor
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 15:31
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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Love it, FF

I still think the struggle and the progress through difficulties is the most exciting part of the PPL and perhaps the reason why a lot of people do it.
Going from zero to PPL in my opinion is a bigger cultural shock and steeper learning curve than going, say, from PPL to CPL or instructing.
Hmmm, not entirely sure. I love flying and (for as long as I can rub two pennies together) will never give it up, but I found the PPL training the most frustrating and unpleasant thing I have ever done in my life. The crap planes, a fair % of really lousy instructors, banging circuit after circuit, patronising anti-modern-anything attitudes, and the great majority of booked lessons being cancelled, usually due to weather but often due to dis-organisation.

After one has a few hundred hours and been an owner for a bit, one can spot the good and bad "deals" from a mile away. I walked out of one CPL training outfit in double quick time, and from several IR deals.

The US IR was organised, in Arizona, with military precision in comparison and was completed as planned to plus or minus one day.

I know exactly how one could make the PPL really enjoyable for most people but it would cost a lot more money.

Incidentally, my divorce is what made flying possible. My then wife would have never let me do it, well not without spending a similar amount of money on herself and anyway she would have resented me having all that "free time". I just consider myself among the fortunate few men who managed to pull off a divorce and still have any money left afterwards.
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 16:51
  #114 (permalink)  
 
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I've just stayed up till 4am reading this thread. It's been great seeing some thoughtful, well-written posts and so many kindred spirits.

I feel lucky that I've learnt on new, well-maintained tailwheel aircraft, like this:


that are simply fun to fly. Also, I'm in Australia, so weather's rarely a problem, there's heaps of uncontrolled airspace and the prices are cheaper.

Like others on this forum, I'm in the throes of a divorce, which at least means I have 100% control over what's left of my finances. In a year or two I'll probably have made the switch from buying a house and renting aircraft, to buying an aircraft and renting a house. There's a whole continent out there, and it looks great from the air. I'm no Francis Ford Coppola but here's a taste:

Landing a Citabria at Camden: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPvOJY6GgfQ

Flying a 182 down the Sydney coastline to Wollongong for lunch (yes, that's a Constellation - there's a Catalina there too): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQ8-iFKeEGk

The same 182 to Cootamundra for a $400 pie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XjmZ-nWtbc

I'm having a whale of a time, and I still only have my GFPT. Getting my PPL is my New Year's resolution. Aerobatics next . I've been diving for the last 28 years (just taken it up after a 4-year gap as two of my sons have just qualified) and I hope to be flying (and diving) for the next 28.

Lastly, it was an excellent point that you rarely regret the things you do as much as the things you don't do.

So, keep flying, but if you must give up, make sure it's for something else you can be just as enthusiastic about!


Last edited by i.dingbat; 2nd Jan 2008 at 17:02.
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 11:24
  #115 (permalink)  
 
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This has been a very interesting read, but IO540 and I have very different perceptions of the cure. If we look at what the market is telling us.

The part of GA which is in trouble is IFR touring. Demand for IFR touring aircraft has dropped in the UK and Europe and prices have fallen dramatically.

The part of GA which is thriving is the light end. 12,000 brand new paramotors sold in 06 at around £3000 each.

What does this tell us? Price and hassle put people off. Far more people can afford and want to buy a £3000 toy with a few hours of training than £80k for a second hand IFR machine plus a full PPL plus an IR. Expand up a little and the more “formal” you get the more cost and hassle are involved. I do not think that mission capability mater to the fun flyer, but it is critical if you fly on Business.

Fortunately, EASA are assisting with a solution. The new recreational PPL will be more of a fun, back to basics approach and it will be possible to train on unlicensed strips. Strip flying, both “group A” and micros has boomed in the last ten years. This has been partly due to most micro training being done on strips, but also to the Group A pilots finding it is much less pain than being based on a more formal site. Ironically, most of the navigation used by the “strip flyers” is good old DR with GPS as a backup on the more sophisticated modern machines.

The strip I am based on has 20 aircraft. Two are C of A (a PA28R and a DR400) and the rest are permit, split between very old and modern. Most of the owners are flying 80 – 160 hours a year and the number of aircraft has grown steadily over the last ten years. In the same area several other sites have started up and there is a steady flow of kit from the licensed airfields to the low cost, low hassle strips. Operating out of a strip can be very quick and painless.

As training starts to be re focused on seat of the pants fun with lower costs and less hours of training we will get an increase in pilots and we will retain more as there will be far more camaraderie. The IFR side will however suffer, as there will be fewer and fewer VFR pilots based on airfields with full approach assistance to share the cost. This will probably push the cost of IFR flight even more. With regards to infringing CAS, remember there is a lot of the UK north of London which has quite simple airspace and it does not require a full panel and stress overload to avoid it.

Rod1
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 11:51
  #116 (permalink)  
 
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EASA assist? Don't joke. Given the effort they've put into f***ing up a simple, cheap and functional system i.e. UK gliding - don't hold your breath waiting for simple cheap EASA power flying.
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 12:54
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Rod1 you make some interesting observations about the success of the smaller end of the market.

It is a completely different game at that end. The simplest comparison I can make is the boating industry. There are thousands of "Water Sports" enthusiasts that rent/own small water craft from jet skis to small power boards. Mostly this can be transported easily and dont require marina facilities. They keep a whole load of people employed and it is a significant industry. However it is essentially completely separate from the Marina based craft that do most of the touring and the "Water Sports" craft do not contribute significantly to its a marina's upkeep. The larger boats fund this infrastructure. This is the analogy of GA. The "farm strip" Very Light Aircraft flying can survive without the key infrastructure of aerodromes and I wish it every success in this.

However unless we keep the equivalent business that marina's get for the aerodromes then slowly and surely the ability to fly and utilise larger aircraft will disappear. This is not just IFR flying but VFR with passengers. and more importantly could reduce the hangarage available for all aircraft especially the non-metal classic aircraft ( no I dont mean composites..) .

I think this would be a disaster for our country and for any of us who like to fly further afield.

Ironically I think we are about to enter a new age of flying with the advent of aircraft like the skycatcher with Glass panels and comfortable seats. I know lots of people who tried but did not continue because the the antiquated aircraft this industry has for training. I know our local flying school has placed orders already... I just hope it does not collapse before we can get more people into "proper" flying
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 14:05
  #118 (permalink)  
 
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In a nutshell, the "PFA crowd" (I use that term very loosely here) think they can keep on flying while the rest of GA dies out, based as many of them are at tight and cosy farm strip communities.

They are probably right - in the short term.

Unfortunately, we are not likely ever again see a return to the old days (many years ago) when one could get a flying license at a farm strip, so if the mainstream side of GA dies, the farm strip scene will also die out as the participants disappear due to death, health, and all the other factors which make up the general attrition rate.

I never said that IFR touring is some sort of magic cure for GA. The PFA crowd on here likes to pretend that I am saying that but I never actually did. Going places just happens to be why *I* learnt to fly and that is fair enough, that's my business.

GA needs all the different departments to function. It needs the cheap end (represented here by Rod1), the very cheap end (lawn mowers strapped to one's back etc), and also the higher up stuff from piston tourers to private jets. It also needs a training scene.

It just happens that at the moment the sports side is seening rapid growth, fed by a large # of manufacturers in Europe churning out Rotax powered planes. In due time, this will reach saturation, just like established IFR GA reached saturation many years ago.

Europe has never been strong on private IFR - nothing like the USA. The utility is limited by a shortage of airfields with instrument approaches, and by the increasingly time consuming IR. I wouldn't say there is a decline in private IFR - if anything it is improving but thanks to aggressive newcomers like Cirrus the prices of IFR tourers have plummeted in recent years which (as with houses) is great news unless you are trying to exit the business altogether.

The training scene is a tricky one. The current UK one hangs together because the ATPL hour builders can build hours while getting paid peanuts, but this is possible only because the hours they log count towards their fATPL. If the logged time didn't count; if say most PPL training was towards some sub-ICAO license, then these cheap instructors would disappear and schools would have to employ proper instructors, which would increase the cost of training.
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 15:09
  #119 (permalink)  
 
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“we are not likely ever again see a return to the old days (many years ago) when one could get a flying license at a farm strip”

The BMAA are doing the NPPL license at farm strips right now, and the EASA agreement to extend this to the new recreational license, up to 2000kg is 90% done.

“then these cheap instructors would disappear and schools would have to employ proper instructors, which would increase the cost of training.”

The situation for the schools will be much worse than this. The new proposals look like allowing PPL “enthusiast” instructors very similar to the system currently in use by the BGA. This will make training for recreational flying much less commercial and allow the professionals to concentrate on training ATPL’s.

None of the above is new; it is just being expanded to cover power flying in the 450kg-2000kg weight bracket. This is one of the positives to come out of EASA’s stated aim to use a lighter regulatory touch for recreational licensing. It is possible that the LAA – Light Aircraft Association (the PFA no longer exists) may be one of the national bodies looking after the system.

“However unless we keep the equivalent business that marina's get for the aerodromes then slowly and surely the ability to fly and utilise larger aircraft will disappear. This is not just IFR flying but VFR with passengers.”

That is an interesting analogy, but it has one flaw. It is entirely possible to fly aircraft like the PA28R out of strips. There is one based on the strip with me. In time the smaller licensed airfields will probably abandon paying huge money to the CAA and become unlicensed. This will have zero impact on the VFR side of flying, apart from reducing the costs, but it will, unfortunately, be a problem for IFR.

Rod1
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 15:29
  #120 (permalink)  
 
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So does this prove that we don't need an IMCR then? It never ceases me the circular arguments that appear on here with one contradicting the other.

If we are all moving towards the VFR day ships from private strips there is clearly no need for IFR and so the loss of the IMCR is not going to be felt?

Personally I think that the view that aviation will end up on private strips is very blinkered and a little self serving.
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