Crying Wolf with Weather
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Crying Wolf with Weather
Is it my imagination or are these all too frequent "Severe Weather Warnings" crying wolf too much?
We keep having some very stern and definite warnings issued on the met-office web site and the last five times they have been issued they having come to nothing. In fact on two of those days I had a beautiful days flying with slight winds and near perfect vis.
The warning today is suggesting a 40% chance of severe disruption in my area. I shall be interested to see what develops. When I was a young child the sight of someones umbrella blowing inside out was put down to a breezy day and nothing else.
No doubt some of you will join me by saying that the world has become unbeliavably and unecessarily PC over the last ten years. Is it that someone has sued the Met-Office for tripping over in a gust that wasn't forecast??
I just feel that the over zealousness of the site to give out warnings might just backfire one day when we get some REAL weather. If they suddenly realised that there were to be genuine 80 mph winds across the country how would they word their ninth Severe Warning of that month?
We keep having some very stern and definite warnings issued on the met-office web site and the last five times they have been issued they having come to nothing. In fact on two of those days I had a beautiful days flying with slight winds and near perfect vis.
The warning today is suggesting a 40% chance of severe disruption in my area. I shall be interested to see what develops. When I was a young child the sight of someones umbrella blowing inside out was put down to a breezy day and nothing else.
No doubt some of you will join me by saying that the world has become unbeliavably and unecessarily PC over the last ten years. Is it that someone has sued the Met-Office for tripping over in a gust that wasn't forecast??
I just feel that the over zealousness of the site to give out warnings might just backfire one day when we get some REAL weather. If they suddenly realised that there were to be genuine 80 mph winds across the country how would they word their ninth Severe Warning of that month?
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Yes Mono, I think that you are right and IMHO, it dates back to the 1987 'hurricane'. The Met Office were caught out badly over that one and from then on, have erred on the cautious side.
However, its only their TV & radio forecast which tend to be OTT and as the presenter only has 2 monutes to give a countrywide forecast, they have to have a fairly broad-brush approach.
However, its only their TV & radio forecast which tend to be OTT and as the presenter only has 2 monutes to give a countrywide forecast, they have to have a fairly broad-brush approach.
How right you are, Monocock!
Similarly, the movement of Atlantic weather systems always seem to be later than the weather-guessers forecast. This latest depression is already late....
I'm pretty sure that there is an element of litigation-fear in their forecasts these days.
Similarly, the movement of Atlantic weather systems always seem to be later than the weather-guessers forecast. This latest depression is already late....
I'm pretty sure that there is an element of litigation-fear in their forecasts these days.
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Seems to be a general trend that the timings are well out. The synoptics produced by the met office show quite different patterns over the preceding days and days that looked OK 3 days ahead turned out to be bad.
Perhaps some of the met men around might be able to tell us why that is. Would it be something to do with reliance on the supercomputers
Perhaps some of the met men around might be able to tell us why that is. Would it be something to do with reliance on the supercomputers
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Well I am trying to decide if to fly up to Prestwick from the Midlands today. Forecast is :
EGPK 270553Z 270716 14009KT 9999 FEW025 SCT045 TEMPO 0716 BKN045 BECMG 1215 09018G30KT
And, if I return later is it going to be worse back at base?
EGNX 270606Z 270716 11008KT 4000 BR FEW030 PROB30 TEMPO 0708 0500 FG BKN002 BECMG 0811 9999 BECMG 1013 11018G28KT TEMPO 1416 8000 -RA
That would appear to be within my personal limits but I, like others expected the forecast to be worse.
I will have to wait for the 1019 TAF's and then decide.
EGPK 270553Z 270716 14009KT 9999 FEW025 SCT045 TEMPO 0716 BKN045 BECMG 1215 09018G30KT
And, if I return later is it going to be worse back at base?
EGNX 270606Z 270716 11008KT 4000 BR FEW030 PROB30 TEMPO 0708 0500 FG BKN002 BECMG 0811 9999 BECMG 1013 11018G28KT TEMPO 1416 8000 -RA
That would appear to be within my personal limits but I, like others expected the forecast to be worse.
I will have to wait for the 1019 TAF's and then decide.
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The warning today is suggesting a 40% chance of severe disruption in my area
I have yet to see such a warning provided by the met office in the aviation forecast.
We must not confuse the forecasting provided for the general public including warnings with the forecasts provided to aviation or indeed maritime operators.
To go down that road would lead to a rash of pilots complaining that there was a "sun" symbol on the weather forecast but they hit a hill while in cloud!!!!..........................ops, sorry but some UK pilot did that and hense the "warning cloud on hills" that we get on every UK briefing!
You can always tell the "experienced" pilots who haven't got a clue about the weather (forecast or actual) - they hang round the club and wait for someone else to go flying.......and then get airbourne on the basis of someone else's ability to deal with the weather and not their own!!
Regards,
DFC
I have yet to see such a warning provided by the met office in the aviation forecast.
We must not confuse the forecasting provided for the general public including warnings with the forecasts provided to aviation or indeed maritime operators.
To go down that road would lead to a rash of pilots complaining that there was a "sun" symbol on the weather forecast but they hit a hill while in cloud!!!!..........................ops, sorry but some UK pilot did that and hense the "warning cloud on hills" that we get on every UK briefing!
You can always tell the "experienced" pilots who haven't got a clue about the weather (forecast or actual) - they hang round the club and wait for someone else to go flying.......and then get airbourne on the basis of someone else's ability to deal with the weather and not their own!!
Regards,
DFC
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This mornings 0900 TAF's from Ireland :
CORK AIRPORT EICK 270900Z 271019 09030G45KT 3000 RADZ SCT002 OVC005 TEMPO 1019 09035G55KT 1500 +RADZ SCT001 OVC002
SHANNON AIRPORT EINN 270900Z 271019 08020G32KT 8000 -RA SCT010 BKN020 BECMG 1113 08027G45KT 5000 -RADZ SCT007 BKN010 TEMPO 1219 3000 RADZ BKN005 PROB40 TEMPO 1319 08035G55KT
Storm on the way
CORK AIRPORT EICK 270900Z 271019 09030G45KT 3000 RADZ SCT002 OVC005 TEMPO 1019 09035G55KT 1500 +RADZ SCT001 OVC002
SHANNON AIRPORT EINN 270900Z 271019 08020G32KT 8000 -RA SCT010 BKN020 BECMG 1113 08027G45KT 5000 -RADZ SCT007 BKN010 TEMPO 1219 3000 RADZ BKN005 PROB40 TEMPO 1319 08035G55KT
Storm on the way
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Ive suffered at the hands of the met forcasters all to often. The 3 day forcasts arent worth the paper there written on, with even the next days forcasting efforts being all to offten very wide of being even 90% accurate. Learnt never to scrub a flight the day before as all to often ended up looking at perfectly good flying weather after the forcast was for doom and gloom.
Its about time the met were taken to task re the accuracy of the forcasts as many event organisers and holiday locations depend on the public turning up and if the forcast is for bad\poor weather then people will stay at home.
Just for this year I recon that the 3 day forcast is only 25% correct, the next day only 75%, youd think with all the £m's poured into the met they could manage a better hit rate - good job this lot arent forcasting the D-Day weather, we'ed still be waiting on the south coast.
Its about time the met were taken to task re the accuracy of the forcasts as many event organisers and holiday locations depend on the public turning up and if the forcast is for bad\poor weather then people will stay at home.
Just for this year I recon that the 3 day forcast is only 25% correct, the next day only 75%, youd think with all the £m's poured into the met they could manage a better hit rate - good job this lot arent forcasting the D-Day weather, we'ed still be waiting on the south coast.
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I have yet to see such a warning provided by the met office in the aviation forecast.
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I'm not sure it's all one way. It seems to me that this 'summer' there's often been a lovely high out there on the 5-day chart that seems time and time again to vanish as the days draw on. Thinking about this, I just checked at random and found this today! Will it happen? Hmm.
That'd be nice - a great big blocking high!
Well, if it was summer that is. No doubt at this time of year it'll just mean days and days of radiation fog.....
Well, if it was summer that is. No doubt at this time of year it'll just mean days and days of radiation fog.....
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High Wing Drifter;
I have seen- Prob 40 of strong winds, Prob 40 of low cloud and Prob 40 of poor visibility as well as the Prob 40 of sunshine, drizzle, rain, hail, snow (at times on the same day in the UK!).
But I have never seen an aviation forecast give a direct probability of disruption.
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Monocock,
As I said, your link provides information put in simple terms for the average member of the public.
There is no mention of the "disruption" in any of the aviation forecasts.............They do however give us the data that we can use to decide for ourselves if our plans are going to be disrupted.
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holyflyer,
For the surface wind at Cork read the 1000ft wind!!! - it's nearly that far up!!!
Interesting crosswind though - especially if the landing happens during a tempo!
Regards,
DFC
I have seen- Prob 40 of strong winds, Prob 40 of low cloud and Prob 40 of poor visibility as well as the Prob 40 of sunshine, drizzle, rain, hail, snow (at times on the same day in the UK!).
But I have never seen an aviation forecast give a direct probability of disruption.
----
Monocock,
As I said, your link provides information put in simple terms for the average member of the public.
There is no mention of the "disruption" in any of the aviation forecasts.............They do however give us the data that we can use to decide for ourselves if our plans are going to be disrupted.
-----
holyflyer,
For the surface wind at Cork read the 1000ft wind!!! - it's nearly that far up!!!
Interesting crosswind though - especially if the landing happens during a tempo!
Regards,
DFC
DV
Of course it'll happen; I'm working this weekend.
The metman gave a forecast for us last night of mifg coming in at 0100Z and, to give him his due, it came in at 0107Z. Now, if only it was always that simple.
I find the best way to forecast the weather is to check what days I am working - they'll be the fine days.
I just checked at random and found this today! Will it happen? Hmm.
The metman gave a forecast for us last night of mifg coming in at 0100Z and, to give him his due, it came in at 0107Z. Now, if only it was always that simple.
I find the best way to forecast the weather is to check what days I am working - they'll be the fine days.