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Cirrus down Gundaroo, 06/10/23

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Old 7th Oct 2023, 08:11
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The Daily Telegraph is reporting that CAPS 'failed' to deploy. Are they just stating that it didn't deploy or that something went wrong with the system? Either way, how horrible. RIP <3
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 08:29
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Angus Mitchell seems to be keeping a low profile on this one.

ABC news said the investigation could take up to a few weeks. I'm assuming they meant the on-site part of the investigation.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 08:32
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Originally Posted by VHOED191006
The Daily Telegraph is reporting that CAPS 'failed' to deploy. Are they just stating that it didn't deploy or that something went wrong with the system? Either way, how horrible. RIP <3
Yeah, I just read that too.
Still think it was sudden pilot incapacitation. What else really could it be. No Mayday at all??My thoughts are with all affected obviously........but especially the parents who lost 3 out of their 5 children, and the daughter, who also lost her own father in the crash
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 08:43
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How does sudden pilot incapacitation result in an aircraft plummeting to the ground?
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 08:44
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I

Originally Posted by I spy
Yeah, I just read that too.
Still think it was sudden pilot incapacitation. What else really could it be. No Mayday at all??
Well we need to know if it was VMC or IMC.

I am reading many mixed messages. Some say the turbulence was significant in the area. Others are saying they noted lenticular clouds in the area during the morning. Others are saying the wind was quite volatile around that time and shifted dramatically. One media outlet noted it was perfect conditions.

Can anyone comment on turbulence they have experienced from the ranges to the West of Lake George?



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Old 7th Oct 2023, 09:01
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Originally Posted by PoppaJo
Well we need to know if it was VMC or IMC.

I am reading many mixed messages. Some say the turbulence was significant in the area. Others are saying they noted lenticular clouds in the area during the morning. Others are saying the wind was quite volatile around that time and shifted dramatically. One media outlet noted it was perfect conditions.

Can anyone comment on turbulence they have experienced from the ranges to the West of Lake George?
He's planned the flight at 10,000 (Why not 9, for an easterly flight though?), suggestive of under the IFR. To me at least, that says it was immaterial whether he was IMC or VMC, he'd have been flying by reference to his instruments and by all reports, was quite adept at doing so. The only way IMC/VMC would play a part is, in the event of pilot incapacitation, would the passenger would know [how] to take control. I know my regular Coey (Mini-Me MkII at 11YO) can fly to a "safe enough" landing in VMC, but that's as far as I can connect the dots in that scenario.

Going by the below photo taken the afternoon of the accident, there's blue sky above the cloud base, but I cant pick the bases or tops from behind a keyboard...

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Old 7th Oct 2023, 09:50
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If I remember correctly, Canberra's METAR was showing broken at 8000ft.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 09:58
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Originally Posted by Jenna Talia
Icing?
More likely pilot incapacitation
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 10:11
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Originally Posted by triathlon
I have learnt over the years that the media is not into facts , one report said the kids were his, so I could be correct about being a student pilot
No you're not. You are dead wrong.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 10:18
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
Perhaps severe icing, stall and spin, tangling the chute and damaging comms antennas.

Please everyone: Don’t feed the beast with speculation about sudden incapacitation and ‘evil thought’, especially when it’s a nonsensical explanation just on the cockpit ergonomics of a Cirrus and what actually happens if you point most any ‘light’ aircraft straight at the ground. It’s an awful enough outcome without the AvMeds of the world milking it before the smoke’s dissipated. The pilot’s medical history and domestic circumstances will be revealed, eventually.
Incapacitation is not a nonsensical explanation. You post was.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 10:21
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
How does sudden pilot incapacitation result in an aircraft plummeting to the ground?
Are you familiar with the function of a pilot?
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 10:31
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Originally Posted by Capt Fathom
Not much wreckage left for the ATSB to investigate. Some accidents can remain a mystery.
Nor likely for the coroner, as far as pilot incapacitation goes.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 10:35
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Yes I am a pilot, cncpc. And, nearly four decades in, I'm getting very tired of the mixture of amateurs, accident ghouls, media trolls and - worst of all - self-interested aircraft manufacturers and maintainers who are so keen to blame the pilot for accidents. And pilot incapacitation feeds straight into Avmed's justification.

You, of course, are just a disinterested observer, with no direct or indirect financial interest in Cirrus or BRS, or in Avmed issues, who's just appeared for purely altruistic reasons to nudge pilot incapacitation as the cause. Aren't you.

Last edited by Lead Balloon; 7th Oct 2023 at 10:47.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 10:39
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Wonder if the kids had packed any lithium-ion battery powered toys? A few hard bumps, inflight cargo fire, fast incapacitation and structural failure.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 11:00
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Originally Posted by cncpc
More likely pilot incapacitation
Icing probability is easy to work out as the freezing level is in the forecast!
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 11:04
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For anyone related to those who've died in this terrible tragedy: Beware. There are many, many people out there whose interests lie in attributing blame for this accident to the pilot alone. Sudden incapacitation or some other event solely attributable to the pilot is a neat way of turning something very, very complex into something very simple, so as to absolve everyone else from any liability.

I've seen this many times before: PPruNers with very few posts over years who magically turn up to run interference on any suggestion that the pilot may not have been the only, or even a, cause of an accident.

Naturally you, cncpc, will be happy to explain where you come from in Canada and what you fly. As it turns out, I have some cousins who live over there and a sister who happens to be visiting there for a few weeks. What's your location, so that I can organise a chat?
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 11:04
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He's planned the flight at 10,000
It was mentioned to me third hand that 10k was his preferred operating level. The ADSB feed suggests that he was heading there as quickly as he could.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 11:14
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And which fact, if true, tells us what?
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 11:17
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon
And which fact, if true, tells us what?
Probably nothing…. It was in reference to the comments above.
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Old 7th Oct 2023, 11:38
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How does sudden pilot incapacitation result in an aircraft plummeting to the ground?
Not as impossible as you might think:

​​​​​​​On the morning of 24 September 2005, a Raytheon Aircraft Company Beechcraft A-36 Bonanza, registered VH-BKM, was being flown by the
owner pilot on a private flight from Murwillumbah, NSW, to Coonabarabran, NSW, with one passenger. The pilot had not submitted
a flight plan or nominated a SARTIME and there was no requirement to do so.

The aircraft was reported to be missing on 28 September 2005 and a search was then commenced. The wreckage of the aircraft was
located on 29 September 2005. The aircraft had impacted a heavily timbered hill on a private property 'Millera', located
approximately 35 km east of Tenterfield. The aircraft had been destroyed by impact forces and a post-impact fire and both
occupants were fatally injured. Witnesses reported clear weather in the vicinity of the accident site.

The recorded radar data indicated that the aircraft was maintaining a stable heading and altitude which was consistent with
the autopilot having been engaged. The aircraft then descended from a cruising altitude of 6,500 ft above mean sea level (AMSL) to a
final recorded altitude of 3,800 ft AMSL, at a rate of approximately 5000 ft/min.

The pilot was 71 years old and held both commercial and private pilot licenses for aeroplanes with a valid Class 2 medical. The
maintenance records indicated that the aircraft had a valid maintenance release which was issued on 27 January 2005.

Weight and balance calculations showed that the aircraft was within centre of gravity limits for the final flight.
Discolouration of tree foliage at the accident site and the extent of the post-impact fire indicated that fuel was present when the
accident occurred.

The accident is consistent with the pilot becoming incapacitated, the aircraft departing controlled flight and
subsequently impacting terrain. The possible reasons for any incapacitation could not be determined.
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