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Bell ditching off Newcastle

Old 11th Sep 2019, 12:29
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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To take a step back to reflect on current conditions, it was not long after last light (10 mins or so) in blowing dust and gusting 48kts on the TAF that the aircraft crashed. It was flying the coastal route south. The conditions were horrendous and would be close to IMC conditions. The aircraft apparently refueled at Coffs so would mean it would be very close to being into reserves (if no aux tank fitted near the hell hole) by Williamtown to add to the weather.

If one was “planning” to do a NVFR flight you would be at least at lowest safe if not 4500’ from the Taree (Ugpot) to Willy leg if following the airway. I think there is more to the story which no doubt ATSB will uncover.

lets hope they can find and recover the hull

RIP


Last edited by belly tank; 11th Sep 2019 at 12:47.
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Old 11th Sep 2019, 20:05
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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......So basically light aircraft are required to fly over water to satisfy the RAAF?
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Old 11th Sep 2019, 21:34
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish View Post
......So basically light aircraft are required to fly over water to satisfy the RAAF?
In the same way light aircraft are required to fly over water down Victor 1 to satisfy ASA, yes. The big difference though, is ASA makes things easy. Wear a life jacket, fly this route, not above 500' and you don't need to talk to anyone as you fly within a few miles of one of the 'busiest' airports in the country...

Good luck with that at Williamtown...
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Old 11th Sep 2019, 21:38
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Realistically, what are the chances that UVC will be found?
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 00:05
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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Was the helicopter registered in the "Limited" C of A category.? Are Limited aircraft approved for NGT VFR ?
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 00:20
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KRviator View Post

Good luck with that at Williamtown...
It’s nearly 5nm from the thresholds of 34LR to V1 on rwy track for an aircraft departing 16.

Less than 3nm from the (new) threshold of 30 to the drink for an aircraft departing 12.

So yeah, good luck with that!
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 00:32
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There’s also a heap of low level fast jet traffic that arrive via the coast.

It isn’t the same as the V1 so it’s not really a fair comparison.
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 01:06
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Originally Posted by The sod View Post
Was the helicopter registered in the "Limited" C of A category.? Are Limited aircraft approved for NGT VFR ?
From photos online it is in the Limited category so no more than 6 pax. As far as NVFR instrument requirements under 20.18 im not sure. Depending on its Limited category index number it may or may not have been approved to fly over populous areas as well? No doubt all will come out in the report.

Limited Category
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 04:20
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Originally Posted by Maggie Island View Post


It’s nearly 5nm from the thresholds of 34LR to V1 on rwy track for an aircraft departing 16.

Less than 3nm from the (new) threshold of 30 to the drink for an aircraft departing 12.

So yeah, good luck with that!
Please put a probability number at the end of this sentence:

The probabilities of an aircraft inbound to or outbound from Williamtown colliding with an aircraft that is identified by and in contact with ATC and tracking at 500’ over water adjacent to Stockton Beach off the extended centreline of runway 12 are [please insert a probability number].

Your use of the word “luck” is appropriate. That’s the basis on which so many decisions seem to be made in this Galapagos. You have to be lucky enough to get into the head of someone who understands objective risk rather than perception and intuition.

BTW: How confident are you that Romeo 578B - i.e. outside the 12nm arc from Willytown - was active at the time UVC arrived in the vicinity of Anna Bay?
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 08:32
  #90 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon View Post

Please put a probability number at the end of this sentence:

The probabilities of an aircraft inbound to or outbound from Williamtown colliding with an aircraft that is identified by and in contact with ATC and tracking at 500’ over water adjacent to Stockton Beach off the extended centreline of runway 12 are [enough to make airlines baulk at the idea of a V1 style arrangement apparently?].

BTW: How confident are you that Romeo 578B - i.e. outside the 12nm arc from Willytown - was active at the time UVC arrived in the vicinity of Anna Bay?
You know you could just check the NOTAMs to see its active everyday right? - 100%
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 08:57
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Originally Posted by belly tank View Post
From photos online it is in the Limited category so no more than 6 pax. As far as NVFR instrument requirements under 20.18 im not sure. Depending on its Limited category index number it may or may not have been approved to fly over populous areas as well? No doubt all will come out in the report.

Limited Category
belly tank,
Contrary to popular lore (as opposed to law) Limiter Cat aircraft are NOT limited to 6 persons or pax.
Read the AC a little more carefully.
Tootle pip!!
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 09:00
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Maggie Island View Post


You know you could just check the NOTAMs to see its active everyday right? - 100%
You mean the NOTAMS that say:
TIMES MAY VARY AT SHORT NOTICE. PILOTS RESPONSIBILITY TO CK AND MNT STS. ACCESS TO A PRD AREA MAY AVLBL IF THE ACTIVITY FOR WHICH THE ACTIVITY HAS CEASED (EARLY DEACTIVATION)
Those NOTAMS?

Your “100%” confidence that R578B was still active late on Ronnie’s POETS day is noted.
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 09:23
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon View Post

You mean the NOTAMS that say:

Those NOTAMS?

Your “100%” confidence that R578B was still active late on Ronnie’s POETS day is noted.
Call em up if you want (the number is there in juniors AIC link funnily enough), the 578 series is active every day til 10pm - the only time manual deactivation happens is if the airspace happened to be active past 10, in which case the airspace won’t deactivate any earlier than 10 anyway or if there was some sort of apocalyptic style event that scared all the controllers away - in which case there would be 0 mil airspace (including CTR).
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 09:32
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It follows, therefore, that UVC was under air traffic control before it arrived in the vicinity of Anna Bay, as UVC was in an active Romeo. Correct?
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 09:38
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Yeah UVC wouldve had a clearance
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 09:43
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Am I the only one thinking UVC may have violated the Willy CTR without clearance and that might go some ways to explaining his fairly rapid turn out to sea?

ADS-B Exchange has the last ADS-B plot at -32.804943, 152.043326, which appears to be the second-last one FR24 recorded, based on altitude, but it's closer to Williamtown. When you plug those coordinates, and those of the WLM TACAN into a few different Lat/Long distance calculators, you come up with 11nm, according to the US NOAA, or 19.66km / 10.6nm according to a couple of others. The CTR extends 12nm from the TACAN, so is it possible he feared a pineapple for busting their airspace?
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 09:49
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Originally Posted by KRviator View Post
Am I the only one thinking UVC may have violated the Willy CTR without clearance and that might go some ways to explaining his fairly rapid turn out to sea?

ADS-B Exchange has the last ADS-B plot at -32.804943, 152.043326, which appears to be the second-last one FR24 recorded, based on altitude, but it's closer to Williamtown. When you plug those coordinates, and those of the WLM TACAN into a few different Lat/Long distance calculators, you come up with 11nm, according to the US NOAA, or 19.66km / 10.6nm according to a couple of others. The CTR extends 12nm from the TACAN, so is it possible he feared a pineapple for busting their airspace?
UVC wouldve been inside controlled airspace from Broughton Island which is ~ 12nm up the coast from Anna Bay. Some of the news reports say that he was in communication with ATC (though it doesnt specify WLM...) but I think its pretty likely that UVC had requested and was subsequently granted a clearance to WLM at about 3000’.
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 10:07
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You keep saying “would have been”. Do you have first hand knowledge of whether UVC was under air traffic control before arrival in the vicinity of Anna Bay?

Not “would have”, but was in fact.
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 10:19
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Originally Posted by Lead Balloon View Post
You keep saying “would have been”. Do you have first hand knowledge of whether UVC was under air traffic control before arrival in the vicinity of Anna Bay?

Not “would have”, but was in fact.
No idea - but any other aircraft in that position at that altitude would generally have one.
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Old 12th Sep 2019, 10:29
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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Righto. Good to get an acknowledgement that you’re merely speculating. Like the rest of us.
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