Originally Posted by
Maggie Island
It’s nearly 5nm from the thresholds of 34LR to V1 on rwy track for an aircraft departing 16.
Less than 3nm from the (new) threshold of 30 to the drink for an aircraft departing 12.
So yeah, good luck with that!
Please put a probability number at the end of this sentence:
The probabilities of an aircraft inbound to or outbound from Williamtown colliding with an aircraft that is identified by and in contact with ATC and tracking at 500’ over water adjacent to Stockton Beach off the extended centreline of runway 12 are [please insert a probability number].
Your use of the word “luck” is appropriate. That’s the basis on which so many decisions seem to be made in this Galapagos. You have to be lucky enough to get into the head of someone who understands objective risk rather than perception and intuition.
BTW: How confident are you that Romeo 578B - i.e. outside the 12nm arc from Willytown - was active at the time UVC arrived in the vicinity of Anna Bay?