Virgin Blue hiring
Assuming that it keeps operating, and these days that is a big assumption, VA has turned into a career airline.
I reckon someone joining now can expect a couple of years on the 777 as a S/O, probably 10-12 on the narrow body fleet as a F/O and then a command on the narrow body fleet, with another 8-10 years before a widebody command.
Going to the airbus as a FO probably doesn't achieve that much in terms of internal career progression (you still need to go back to the narrow body for a command) but if your sights are set on an offshore move then the A330 might be a good move - not tried to get a job as a FO offshore with widebody experience so don't know how useful it would be as compared to say 737 time.
From what I hear the lifestyle is probably better on the Airbus than compared to the narrow bodies - depending on what you consider better - one or two sector days max, some day trips but not that many, but as I say it depends on what you consider better - it is probably a better fleet to commute on than the narrow bodies. There are some that value longer trips and others that value day trips so better is a relative term I guess.
The EBA is a good one overall, there will always be improvements that can be made and there will always be trade off's at eba time - the executive management will always believe that there are too many days off and not enough productivity for too much money and the pilots will always believe they work too hard and don't get paid enough so the agreement will undoubtedly change over time, better for some and worse for others I suspect.
Progression is now possible and there is scope to move amongst fleets and even across the "dutch" to UNZUD, so there is the potential for variety in fleet, base and country over the course of a career.
Flying types are also quite varied, turboprop with the ATR (which will undoubtedly become closer to the mainline in terms of movement over time (though not necessarily terms and conditions), 'regional' type flying with the ejet, which the passengers and crews both seem to love, more mainline type flying with the 737 - shark patrol mixed with Bali, Phuket etc and then the transcontinental flying with maybe some Asian flying in the future with the Airbus. If long haul is your thing the 777 is the place to be.
It will be interesting to see what the widebody strategy is later this decade, a common wide body fleet could see some really good flying but with that some lifestyle changes for the crews involved. The 777 crews currently don't do day trips and nothing shorter (or longer) than 4-5 days as far as I can tell, the addition of a common widebody will change that to add in shorter domestic trips, which will impact in how the rosters look - whether that is a good thing is again an individual thing and it probably changes depending on how old your kids are, whether you are married or divorced, whether you work to live or live to work.
The variety brings complexity and added cost, so there might be some form of rationalisation in the future. It is an expensive and diverse fleet. If that happens there will undoubtedly be pain and anguish for some, a promotion for others and change for everyone, though less of all of those things than if it goes arse up.
It needs to make a profit at some point, so the next year or two are going to be important. Having owners with deep pockets helps, but at some point someone has to decide if there is value in keeping it going as is, changing it or burying it and starting again. It is an accountants world these days, so things like operational excellence, careers, the lives of our loved ones etc won't rate a thought at decision time, it will be a risk vs reward analysis, with a decision made on the dollars and cents of keeping it going vs letting it go. A few years ago the sum of its parts was worth close to a billion more than the price of the whole (the market cap was less than the asset value), whether the same can be said these days I don't know, but whenever that situation exists there will be predators sniffing around ready to break up the business and sell the bits off to maximise the return on their investment. Having airline owners on the share register as major investors is probably a good thing from that perspective as they are less likely to cannibalise it when compared to investment firms (in my opinion).
As the old Chinese curse says "may you live in interesting times" I think things will be interesting for the next few years
I reckon someone joining now can expect a couple of years on the 777 as a S/O, probably 10-12 on the narrow body fleet as a F/O and then a command on the narrow body fleet, with another 8-10 years before a widebody command.
Going to the airbus as a FO probably doesn't achieve that much in terms of internal career progression (you still need to go back to the narrow body for a command) but if your sights are set on an offshore move then the A330 might be a good move - not tried to get a job as a FO offshore with widebody experience so don't know how useful it would be as compared to say 737 time.
From what I hear the lifestyle is probably better on the Airbus than compared to the narrow bodies - depending on what you consider better - one or two sector days max, some day trips but not that many, but as I say it depends on what you consider better - it is probably a better fleet to commute on than the narrow bodies. There are some that value longer trips and others that value day trips so better is a relative term I guess.
The EBA is a good one overall, there will always be improvements that can be made and there will always be trade off's at eba time - the executive management will always believe that there are too many days off and not enough productivity for too much money and the pilots will always believe they work too hard and don't get paid enough so the agreement will undoubtedly change over time, better for some and worse for others I suspect.
Progression is now possible and there is scope to move amongst fleets and even across the "dutch" to UNZUD, so there is the potential for variety in fleet, base and country over the course of a career.
Flying types are also quite varied, turboprop with the ATR (which will undoubtedly become closer to the mainline in terms of movement over time (though not necessarily terms and conditions), 'regional' type flying with the ejet, which the passengers and crews both seem to love, more mainline type flying with the 737 - shark patrol mixed with Bali, Phuket etc and then the transcontinental flying with maybe some Asian flying in the future with the Airbus. If long haul is your thing the 777 is the place to be.
It will be interesting to see what the widebody strategy is later this decade, a common wide body fleet could see some really good flying but with that some lifestyle changes for the crews involved. The 777 crews currently don't do day trips and nothing shorter (or longer) than 4-5 days as far as I can tell, the addition of a common widebody will change that to add in shorter domestic trips, which will impact in how the rosters look - whether that is a good thing is again an individual thing and it probably changes depending on how old your kids are, whether you are married or divorced, whether you work to live or live to work.
The variety brings complexity and added cost, so there might be some form of rationalisation in the future. It is an expensive and diverse fleet. If that happens there will undoubtedly be pain and anguish for some, a promotion for others and change for everyone, though less of all of those things than if it goes arse up.
It needs to make a profit at some point, so the next year or two are going to be important. Having owners with deep pockets helps, but at some point someone has to decide if there is value in keeping it going as is, changing it or burying it and starting again. It is an accountants world these days, so things like operational excellence, careers, the lives of our loved ones etc won't rate a thought at decision time, it will be a risk vs reward analysis, with a decision made on the dollars and cents of keeping it going vs letting it go. A few years ago the sum of its parts was worth close to a billion more than the price of the whole (the market cap was less than the asset value), whether the same can be said these days I don't know, but whenever that situation exists there will be predators sniffing around ready to break up the business and sell the bits off to maximise the return on their investment. Having airline owners on the share register as major investors is probably a good thing from that perspective as they are less likely to cannibalise it when compared to investment firms (in my opinion).
As the old Chinese curse says "may you live in interesting times" I think things will be interesting for the next few years
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I reckon someone joining now can expect a couple of years on the 777 as a S/O, probably 10-12 on the narrow body fleet as a F/O and then a command on the narrow body fleet, with another 8-10 years before a widebody command.
Nice one! Guess everyone's entitled to an opinion. Back to Flight Sim...
Care to post a contrary opinion?
I don't believe they are recruiting onto the domestic 737 any more, the entry pathways are VANZ, 777 or ATR as far as I can see, so perhaps amend my prediction to a couple of years as a 777 SO, an ATR FO or VANZ FO, if that makes you feel better.
I fly with 7-8 year FO's now so not sure I am all that far off on the timeline for the second move.There is no significant increase in fleet size in the next few years with only a few retirements, so the command pathway is pretty much blocked. Initial commands won't be on the wide bodies, so there will be no right to left seat switches for airbus or 777 FO's - initial commands will be 737 or Ejet Or maybe ATR depending on how things play out there.
All the airbus and 777 commands are likely to go to pilots with 13-14 years of service, and no more wide bodies coming that we know of, so opportunities only likely to come from retirements and maybe some tweaking of the schedule so again not sure I am all that far off on the time line.
It is different to what it was in the early days, the days of 6-12 months to a command are long gone.
But as it happens you are correct - I do have a sim in the next month or two!
I don't believe they are recruiting onto the domestic 737 any more, the entry pathways are VANZ, 777 or ATR as far as I can see, so perhaps amend my prediction to a couple of years as a 777 SO, an ATR FO or VANZ FO, if that makes you feel better.
I fly with 7-8 year FO's now so not sure I am all that far off on the timeline for the second move.There is no significant increase in fleet size in the next few years with only a few retirements, so the command pathway is pretty much blocked. Initial commands won't be on the wide bodies, so there will be no right to left seat switches for airbus or 777 FO's - initial commands will be 737 or Ejet Or maybe ATR depending on how things play out there.
All the airbus and 777 commands are likely to go to pilots with 13-14 years of service, and no more wide bodies coming that we know of, so opportunities only likely to come from retirements and maybe some tweaking of the schedule so again not sure I am all that far off on the time line.
It is different to what it was in the early days, the days of 6-12 months to a command are long gone.
But as it happens you are correct - I do have a sim in the next month or two!
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I was thinking what you wrote was entirely plausible, Snakecharma. I'd imagine once the dust settles when (if) the VARA EBA is decided AND an integration agreement is ratified between the pilot groups, that VARA would possibly be the primary entry point for new hires. Followed by SO 777 (new buzzword 
) and the rest will be history, as you alluded to.
If it all pans out, pilots will indeed have a complete career path from the regionals through to long-haul (unlike the competitor).
I better get back to flight sim
No, I'm off the hook for 6 months 
) and the rest will be history, as you alluded to.If it all pans out, pilots will indeed have a complete career path from the regionals through to long-haul (unlike the competitor).
I better get back to flight sim
No, I'm off the hook for 6 months
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I fly with 7-8 year FO's now so not sure I am all that far off on the timeline for the second move.
Falling Leaf just wondering if you fly for Virgin?
Innocent question as I have for the last 13 years and I have a very similar opinion to Snakecharma as far as promotional opportunities and potential Command opportunities.
If candidates are put off with whatever downside there is as far as the timeline for promotion then I would ask what other airlines they are considering instead of Virgin.
Brand new aircraft, a pretty good team to work with, from my point of view a very good EBA that will be slowly be improved upon, good bases, a great range of aircraft types and a variation of flight operations from regional turboprop, short haul narrow body International, and long haul wide body International operations. Some consolidation will occur in the future but whether it's a 787 or Airbus WB I don't think anybody really cares.
If I were younger and smarter I would be pretty chuffed if my career started on the bottom of such an airline.
If someone can only see the faults instead of looking at the all the positives of Virgin then perhaps both parties would be FAR better if our prospective candidate wandered off to look at all those 'other' opportunities.
Innocent question as I have for the last 13 years and I have a very similar opinion to Snakecharma as far as promotional opportunities and potential Command opportunities.
If candidates are put off with whatever downside there is as far as the timeline for promotion then I would ask what other airlines they are considering instead of Virgin.
Brand new aircraft, a pretty good team to work with, from my point of view a very good EBA that will be slowly be improved upon, good bases, a great range of aircraft types and a variation of flight operations from regional turboprop, short haul narrow body International, and long haul wide body International operations. Some consolidation will occur in the future but whether it's a 787 or Airbus WB I don't think anybody really cares.
If I were younger and smarter I would be pretty chuffed if my career started on the bottom of such an airline.
If someone can only see the faults instead of looking at the all the positives of Virgin then perhaps both parties would be FAR better if our prospective candidate wandered off to look at all those 'other' opportunities.
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I reckon someone joining now can expect a couple of years on the 777 as a S/O, probably 10-12 on the narrow body fleet as a F/O and then a command on the narrow body fleet, with another 8-10 years before a widebody command.
For example, in the above quote, where do all the wide body FO's fit in? Don't they want narrow body commands? According to the quote they miss out to narrow body FO's. Pedantic maybe, but that adds a lot more time...
Playing the numbers game is both difficult and dangerous.
Forecasting the future is difficult enough but in the aviation industry it is nigh on impossible.
We have a significant number of First Officers that choose lifestyle and base over moving for a Command.
We have a significant number of First Officers who choose Short Haul or Long Haul over moving to another fleet to gain a Command.
We have quite a number of First Officers who accept that they either do not want a Command or a Command will not be offered prior to retirement.
We have a significant number of retirements coming up over the next ten years, Captains and First Officers.
We still lose pilots to other operators chasing skirt or shinny jets.
I don't believe that the expansion has stopped but it won't be of the likes of the last few years.
I will admit that a preference for a specific base will stifle your prospects somewhat, particularly if you only want a Brisbane 737 Command but that same issue will afford some great opportunities for more junior pilots who are willing to move/change type for an earlier Command.
We are seeing that right now.
We have at least one Captain who is more than happy with a 737 Command in Brisbane, who has NO intention of moving away from Brisbane or complicating his life with another set of numbers for a bigger and shinier new jet!.....Me.
Whether it be 2 years 5 years 10 years or 15 years it is academic as no one knows.
Just enjoy the journey and see what transpires.
If Virgin is second prize then I would be pretty happy.
Forecasting the future is difficult enough but in the aviation industry it is nigh on impossible.
We have a significant number of First Officers that choose lifestyle and base over moving for a Command.
We have a significant number of First Officers who choose Short Haul or Long Haul over moving to another fleet to gain a Command.
We have quite a number of First Officers who accept that they either do not want a Command or a Command will not be offered prior to retirement.
We have a significant number of retirements coming up over the next ten years, Captains and First Officers.
We still lose pilots to other operators chasing skirt or shinny jets.
I don't believe that the expansion has stopped but it won't be of the likes of the last few years.
I will admit that a preference for a specific base will stifle your prospects somewhat, particularly if you only want a Brisbane 737 Command but that same issue will afford some great opportunities for more junior pilots who are willing to move/change type for an earlier Command.
We are seeing that right now.
We have at least one Captain who is more than happy with a 737 Command in Brisbane, who has NO intention of moving away from Brisbane or complicating his life with another set of numbers for a bigger and shinier new jet!.....Me.
Whether it be 2 years 5 years 10 years or 15 years it is academic as no one knows.
Just enjoy the journey and see what transpires.
If Virgin is second prize then I would be pretty happy.
Falling leaf, you are taking one para out of context - I wasn't forgetting wide body FO's, I just lumped all FO's into the narrow body category in my original post - wasn't intentional just a slip of the tongue as it were.
There are, relatively speaking, not all that many wide body FO's, even if you combine 777 and 330, when compared to the number of FO's in the narrow body fleet.
You are probably right about being too optimistic, but who knows. My original post had say 2 years as a SO, then 10-12 years as a FO (wide body/narrow body doesn't matter), so all up 12-14 years to a command.
As I say you are probably right about being too optimistic, but airlines seem to go in 7 year cycles, so there is a fair chance that we will see one or two of those in the timeline described. It can go from feast to famine (and back again) relatively quickly.
Either way, the point I was trying to make was the days of the quick command are gone and have been replaced by the potential for variety (fleet, country, style of flying).
There are, relatively speaking, not all that many wide body FO's, even if you combine 777 and 330, when compared to the number of FO's in the narrow body fleet.
You are probably right about being too optimistic, but who knows. My original post had say 2 years as a SO, then 10-12 years as a FO (wide body/narrow body doesn't matter), so all up 12-14 years to a command.
As I say you are probably right about being too optimistic, but airlines seem to go in 7 year cycles, so there is a fair chance that we will see one or two of those in the timeline described. It can go from feast to famine (and back again) relatively quickly.
Either way, the point I was trying to make was the days of the quick command are gone and have been replaced by the potential for variety (fleet, country, style of flying).
So, did you guys get a "confirmed" start date for VANZ 737 or is it just another possibility where they cancel the ground school last minute and you're on hold for another 3 years?
I've already done over double your estimate for S/O, and I think for new joiners 4-5 yrs is a good estimate.
If I stick around long enough, I think it could easily be over 15 yrs before a 737 command became an option. By then I'd have been in the company 20 years.
For someone at the bottom of the list like myself its just the way it is, the company is young and there's plenty of very young Captains kicking around.
Even if your 25 and just got a start at VARA, you'll easily be in your early 30s before a domestic jet F.O slot becomes available. Nothing wrong with that but I don't know if I'd like to be doing my Command training just before turning 50 either.
If I stick around long enough, I think it could easily be over 15 yrs before a 737 command became an option. By then I'd have been in the company 20 years.
For someone at the bottom of the list like myself its just the way it is, the company is young and there's plenty of very young Captains kicking around.
Even if your 25 and just got a start at VARA, you'll easily be in your early 30s before a domestic jet F.O slot becomes available. Nothing wrong with that but I don't know if I'd like to be doing my Command training just before turning 50 either.
I reckon the only thing I really know is that I don't know!
I have seen so many changes over the course of my career and I never imagined that Ansett would fall over, that the industry would fracture the way it has into the various players we see today.
About the only thing that hasn't changed significantly is the aeroplanes! The 737 is essentially a 50 year old design with some tweaking, the 320 and 330 are, at their core, 20-25 years old, the Jumbo is on its way out (in oz anyway) and the 767 has basically gone (apart from the freighter). The dash 8 I did my endorsement on 25 years ago is still flogging around as are many (most) of the GA aeroplanes I flew. Even the 787 is a few years old now as a design.
I must be getting old, nostalgia is creeping up on me.
I have seen so many changes over the course of my career and I never imagined that Ansett would fall over, that the industry would fracture the way it has into the various players we see today.
About the only thing that hasn't changed significantly is the aeroplanes! The 737 is essentially a 50 year old design with some tweaking, the 320 and 330 are, at their core, 20-25 years old, the Jumbo is on its way out (in oz anyway) and the 767 has basically gone (apart from the freighter). The dash 8 I did my endorsement on 25 years ago is still flogging around as are many (most) of the GA aeroplanes I flew. Even the 787 is a few years old now as a design.
I must be getting old, nostalgia is creeping up on me.
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We still lose pilots to other operators chasing skirt or shinny jets.
None of us can see the future, but those of us at the bottom of the heap have to be realistic. For me as a 45 yo that means the possibility of never having a jet command (ATR could be a possibility).
It would be interesting to know what % of FO's are neither interested or eligible for a Command...
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AviatoR21,
Nothing concrete yet. Phone call was to ascertain interest with official offer to be made by end of this week. Not getting my hopes up until a contract is signed!
Either way, Virgin HR was very open and honest about the hold file being wiped in the near future so if things don't pan out then everyone is in the same boat.
Nothing concrete yet. Phone call was to ascertain interest with official offer to be made by end of this week. Not getting my hopes up until a contract is signed!
Either way, Virgin HR was very open and honest about the hold file being wiped in the near future so if things don't pan out then everyone is in the same boat.
Hey FL, from what I can gather, 3 years to a EK Command is not really the case - closer to double I believe. Quicker at EY or QR. And you get to live in the sand pit! Still an option though.
The other interesting X factor in the equation is how much more flying will be gifted to TG to balance their books. This could give VA as much growth as QF!
The other interesting X factor in the equation is how much more flying will be gifted to TG to balance their books. This could give VA as much growth as QF!
All the airbus and 777 commands are likely to go to pilots with 13-14 years of service, and no more wide bodies coming that we know of, so opportunities only likely to come from retirements and maybe some tweaking of the schedule so again not sure I am all that far off on the time line.
Expect half of hires to be due attrition, half expansion. The expansion pause finishes soon, although only conservative growth coming.
To put just a little perspective (good or bad) on things
Lowest A330 command Group Date of Joing list #228 joined 2002
Lowest A330 First Officer Group Date of Joing list # 950 joined 2010
Lowest Ejet Command Group Date of Joing list #817 joined 2008
Total on list 1305 including VAA, VAI, VANZ
Lowest A330 command Group Date of Joing list #228 joined 2002
Lowest A330 First Officer Group Date of Joing list # 950 joined 2010
Lowest Ejet Command Group Date of Joing list #817 joined 2008
Total on list 1305 including VAA, VAI, VANZ
Ad-Astra you're not using logic, facts or mathematics for your argument are you? Better off using heresay, war stories and emotion. My favourite starts with ".. Funny game this aviation..." then ends with the story about how it all came to a hault in 05' and roared back to life with commands and high fives all round. Hillarious. The boom's coming back ANY minute!
One addition I'd like to make to your post is with regard to the FO330 position. That number will now be very different as several 73 and Ejet commuting skippers supposedly have their hat in the ring for that now.
One addition I'd like to make to your post is with regard to the FO330 position. That number will now be very different as several 73 and Ejet commuting skippers supposedly have their hat in the ring for that now.