Is ASIC killing off GA PPL?
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Is ASIC killing off GA PPL?
CASA Annual Report
Some disturbing figures in this report. Participation rates are dropping across the board.
Table 25 shows sharp drops after 05/06 for PPL and GFPT. New issues are realtively steady at about 1300 a year for both GFPT and PPL with around another 800 uprating to CPL. It is disturbing to see the numbers of PPL holders dropping by about 4000 people within the last year and about a 1000 from the year before.
Table 30 shows even more disturbing figures showing those giving up holding their class of medicals. 3000 less class1 and about 5000 less class 2 which backs up table 25.
The only thing different over the last two years is ASIC. Has it really impacted on the industry this much?
Anyone know how many new RAA licences were issued in the same time period?
Some disturbing figures in this report. Participation rates are dropping across the board.
Table 25 shows sharp drops after 05/06 for PPL and GFPT. New issues are realtively steady at about 1300 a year for both GFPT and PPL with around another 800 uprating to CPL. It is disturbing to see the numbers of PPL holders dropping by about 4000 people within the last year and about a 1000 from the year before.
Table 30 shows even more disturbing figures showing those giving up holding their class of medicals. 3000 less class1 and about 5000 less class 2 which backs up table 25.
The only thing different over the last two years is ASIC. Has it really impacted on the industry this much?
Anyone know how many new RAA licences were issued in the same time period?
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Honestly, I suspect RAAus is having a much bigger impact than the ASIC card. Gliding has seen the same sort of numbers drop as GA, but for a few more years now. I suspect that's because RAAus operators started appearing as far away from the CBD as the gliding operators, but in the past two years a lot of flying schools have started adding LSA's to their fleet as well.
It sucked up a lot of potential glider pilots - why would you want to spend all day on an airfield for half hour of flying when you can pay for your time slot in an Ultralight that really isn't that much more expensive. Now we're starting to see it in GA as well - why would you spend twice as much flying a 1970 C172 when for half the price you can hire a near new Sportstar, Jabiru, Texan, Sport Cub or Lightwing - especially now the aircraft is 30mins from home at the local GAAP as opposed to 1.5hrs away at the local gliding club?
There'll be a decline in the number of PPL holders, but these people were never really after a PPL anyway - they just wanted the freedom to go flying and occasionally take a friend up. The number of CPL holders won't change too dramatically - there's a lot of people starting in the RAAus with the intention of getting a CPL eventually.
That said the ASIC is the biggest WOFTAM I know of.
It sucked up a lot of potential glider pilots - why would you want to spend all day on an airfield for half hour of flying when you can pay for your time slot in an Ultralight that really isn't that much more expensive. Now we're starting to see it in GA as well - why would you spend twice as much flying a 1970 C172 when for half the price you can hire a near new Sportstar, Jabiru, Texan, Sport Cub or Lightwing - especially now the aircraft is 30mins from home at the local GAAP as opposed to 1.5hrs away at the local gliding club?
There'll be a decline in the number of PPL holders, but these people were never really after a PPL anyway - they just wanted the freedom to go flying and occasionally take a friend up. The number of CPL holders won't change too dramatically - there's a lot of people starting in the RAAus with the intention of getting a CPL eventually.
That said the ASIC is the biggest WOFTAM I know of.
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Another thing to consider is the number of flying schools who have shifted their focus to international CPL training. These schools neither take care of their local part time PPL students or are interested in that market anymore. Many dont even take care of their local CPL students. 
As an instructor who has worked at both flying schools and a flying club, I would recommend that anyone who wants to do a PPL go to a club or one of the smaller schools that dont necessarily have the flashy marketing materials which often make false promises. A large percentage of my own students (PPL and CPL) have come to me from other schools, often dissatisfied with the level of customer service, quality of training, availability of aircraft or instructors (some booking up to 6 weeks in advance only to have the lesson cancelled) resulting in lack of continuity and many considering giving up because they havent enjoyed their training experience. And no wonder - doesn't sound like much fun to me!
So whats the answer? I dont know, but with this pilot shortage and the need for more CPL holders I doubt many people will notice the declining number of PPL students.
True - and I can see how RAAus is becoming a much more popular option for recreational pilots. 
Mo
As an instructor who has worked at both flying schools and a flying club, I would recommend that anyone who wants to do a PPL go to a club or one of the smaller schools that dont necessarily have the flashy marketing materials which often make false promises. A large percentage of my own students (PPL and CPL) have come to me from other schools, often dissatisfied with the level of customer service, quality of training, availability of aircraft or instructors (some booking up to 6 weeks in advance only to have the lesson cancelled) resulting in lack of continuity and many considering giving up because they havent enjoyed their training experience. And no wonder - doesn't sound like much fun to me!
So whats the answer? I dont know, but with this pilot shortage and the need for more CPL holders I doubt many people will notice the declining number of PPL students.
There'll be a decline in the number of PPL holders, but these people were never really after a PPL anyway - they just wanted the freedom to go flying and occasionally take a friend up
Mo
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1,162 CPLs issued in 06/07-Healthy numbers, gone up by almost 500 since 2005
I wonder how many of these are Internationl students going back and how many are here to work.Would be good to know but my guess is approx 40% international.
I wonder how many of these are Internationl students going back and how many are here to work.Would be good to know but my guess is approx 40% international.
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Most (but not all) of the international market seem to consist of:
Cathay Pacific, China Southern, Singapore Airlines Cadets, JAL and Malaysian Airlines cadets or Indian, Malaysian and other Asian students who are funding themselves to gain a CPL and return to their home country to obtain a job.
At Bankstown alone (from my observations), I would say that less than 10% are local students and about 2% are international students other than those mentioned above. A few are keen to stay on, but most have opportunities back home. With the current instructor shortage, a few of the schools are offering instructor scholarships to some of the international students, asking for at least two years of full time employment with that company. I would guess that up until recently over 95% go back home, though with these instructor scholarships thay may change.
Cathay Pacific, China Southern, Singapore Airlines Cadets, JAL and Malaysian Airlines cadets or Indian, Malaysian and other Asian students who are funding themselves to gain a CPL and return to their home country to obtain a job.
At Bankstown alone (from my observations), I would say that less than 10% are local students and about 2% are international students other than those mentioned above. A few are keen to stay on, but most have opportunities back home. With the current instructor shortage, a few of the schools are offering instructor scholarships to some of the international students, asking for at least two years of full time employment with that company. I would guess that up until recently over 95% go back home, though with these instructor scholarships thay may change.
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The ASIC is not killing-off GA PPL, but it is restricting where a PPL will go. I don't have an ASIC, yet since the card was introduced, I have flown into Canberra, Gold Coast, Kingscote, Broken Hill, Birdsville, and Narrandera. In each location, I was in company with another pilot who had an ASIC. But what if I want to fly alone, or can't get an ASIC holder to come along? I either don't go or use another airport. There aren't too many alternatives for BHI.
RAAus is a good cost-effective option, but it still limited in application. On 24 Feb I am flying four mates into the Point Cook airshow. Let's see you do that in a Jabiru! The problems still facing RAAus include lack of aeroplanes for private hire and the inability carry more than two people, therefore restricting the utility value for flying schools. A C172, Warrior or Archer can be an instructional aeroplane, joyflight aeroplane or hire aeroplane. No RAAus aircraft can fill all those roles.
Walrus
RAAus is a good cost-effective option, but it still limited in application. On 24 Feb I am flying four mates into the Point Cook airshow. Let's see you do that in a Jabiru! The problems still facing RAAus include lack of aeroplanes for private hire and the inability carry more than two people, therefore restricting the utility value for flying schools. A C172, Warrior or Archer can be an instructional aeroplane, joyflight aeroplane or hire aeroplane. No RAAus aircraft can fill all those roles.
Walrus
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Hey Walrus
You must bend some rules mate......how do you get you and 4 mates into a C172 or warrior?
Not all Jabs are 2 seat carry not much machines.
Point to point mine will do everything your C172 will do, and do it faster and for less.
Won't take 4-6 adults or IFR......but a Bo will......
Will not be long before Chuck or the Dr appear here I reckon
Cheers
You must bend some rules mate......how do you get you and 4 mates into a C172 or warrior?
Not all Jabs are 2 seat carry not much machines.
Point to point mine will do everything your C172 will do, and do it faster and for less.
Won't take 4-6 adults or IFR......but a Bo will......
Will not be long before Chuck or the Dr appear here I reckon
Cheers
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Mislead???
For decades many students learned to fly hoping to get a well paid job flying a fancy aeroplane, and the flying schools encouraged this. The facts were very different, and lots of newly qualified CPL holders found they could not get a decent job,and there was fierce competition for the few jobs available. And poor wages and conditions because of this.
Many quit.
Now It is getting back somewhere nearer to what it should be, but not there yet.
And there is much better communication technology, so people can get some idea of what the facts are.
Is it any wonder they are not coming?
Many quit.
Now It is getting back somewhere nearer to what it should be, but not there yet.
And there is much better communication technology, so people can get some idea of what the facts are.
Is it any wonder they are not coming?
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Jaba
RAAus is limited to 2 pax, below 5,000' (unpleasant in summer) and OCTA unless you have a PPL (or an exemption from CASA).
That may change in the future (Mick tells me it will) but until it does your RAAus pilots will have to be limited in what they can do or upgrade to GA.
In my observation there are 2 types of PPL holders: switched-on guys who will go in and get it and then use it... and then there are the dreamers and escapists who will never apply themselves enough to pass a PPL exam.
The RAAus has allowed the dreamers and escapists to fly. The Go-getters will still get a PPL because that's the kind of guys (and girls) they are.
That may change in the future (Mick tells me it will) but until it does your RAAus pilots will have to be limited in what they can do or upgrade to GA.
In my observation there are 2 types of PPL holders: switched-on guys who will go in and get it and then use it... and then there are the dreamers and escapists who will never apply themselves enough to pass a PPL exam.
The RAAus has allowed the dreamers and escapists to fly. The Go-getters will still get a PPL because that's the kind of guys (and girls) they are.
Kinda hard to imagine that the ASIC is killing GA. It was already comatose before the ASIC came along.
The ASIC is just one more nuisance to have to stuff about with - at a cost of what (?) - the equivalent of about 0.5 hrs flying.
Why are there isolated pockets where GA seems to be thriving (YTWB) and other places where it has been virtually non-existant for years (YBTL)?
RAA is mostly inhabited by more over-enthusiastic dreamers rather than serious pilots. The rules have been relaxed so far that if it keeps going you won't even have to be able to fly an aeroplane in order to fly an aeroplane (???) - maybe we are there already if the kill rate is any indication!
Walrus - why don't you just go get an ASIC?
Dr
Where's Wally?
Is there weather that the mad Dr won't fly in SE, SP IFR? Yep! Just look at a couple of hundred miles around YBTL today. I'm stuck in YLRE waiting for it to improve so that I have a fighting chance at least. Embedded CBs scare me! Townsville is flooded - YET AGAIN!
The ASIC is just one more nuisance to have to stuff about with - at a cost of what (?) - the equivalent of about 0.5 hrs flying.
Why are there isolated pockets where GA seems to be thriving (YTWB) and other places where it has been virtually non-existant for years (YBTL)?
RAA is mostly inhabited by more over-enthusiastic dreamers rather than serious pilots. The rules have been relaxed so far that if it keeps going you won't even have to be able to fly an aeroplane in order to fly an aeroplane (???) - maybe we are there already if the kill rate is any indication!
Walrus - why don't you just go get an ASIC?
Dr
Where's Wally?
Is there weather that the mad Dr won't fly in SE, SP IFR? Yep! Just look at a couple of hundred miles around YBTL today. I'm stuck in YLRE waiting for it to improve so that I have a fighting chance at least. Embedded CBs scare me! Townsville is flooded - YET AGAIN!
ASICs...
Does anybody know anybody, seen anybody, or even heard of anybody, anywhere, anytime, anyhow, being asked to show their card at one of these terrorist target regional airports, or even a major regional airport?
I get around a bit, various states, never even of a whiff of " 'ello 'ello... whatchu doin' 'ere then?"
WOFTAM? Yes indeed. No question.
Does anybody know anybody, seen anybody, or even heard of anybody, anywhere, anytime, anyhow, being asked to show their card at one of these terrorist target regional airports, or even a major regional airport?
I get around a bit, various states, never even of a whiff of " 'ello 'ello... whatchu doin' 'ere then?"
WOFTAM? Yes indeed. No question.
anybody, or even heard of anybody, anywhere, anytime, anyhow, being asked to show their card
Looking at a pilot's log book recently before inserting a 737 type rating sticky label, noticed his inordinate time to first solo at a flying school in Queensland. Seems after applying for a students pilots licence he had to wait six weeks or more before it was issued by CASA. Meanwhile his instructor took advantage of this and racked up over 36 hours of dual (mostly circuits) before the SPL finally arrived in the post. Only then was he sent on his first solo. Was that a rip-off or what?
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I had to show my ASIC at Albury before the policeman (council aerodrome man) would let me airside. He also told me off for parking where I did after the tower told me to park there. Oh well.
Was at Moruya on the weekend. Walked into the secure terminal, out to the gate, reached around and opened the secure one-way lock and walked airside. Bit of a joke that. Admittedly there is a camera there though.
RAA will never replace GA despite what "Mick" says. They are not equipped to deal with it. They have a severe shortage of rules (they make them up as they go along), little process and no ability to enforce the rules by way of fine or penalties other than taking your "certificate" off you.
The only way for the future of bottom-end GA is a small off-chute of CASA to look after the lighter aircraft up to say 6 seaters.
Was at Moruya on the weekend. Walked into the secure terminal, out to the gate, reached around and opened the secure one-way lock and walked airside. Bit of a joke that. Admittedly there is a camera there though.
RAA will never replace GA despite what "Mick" says. They are not equipped to deal with it. They have a severe shortage of rules (they make them up as they go along), little process and no ability to enforce the rules by way of fine or penalties other than taking your "certificate" off you.
The only way for the future of bottom-end GA is a small off-chute of CASA to look after the lighter aircraft up to say 6 seaters.
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Kinda have to agree with XXX and Forkie about RAA, mind you it might surprise you all to know just how many of their ranks are ATPL holders and CPL's.......let alone a lot of GA guys.
Yes some of them, and I know quite a few, whose needs have changed over the years, have gone to RAA only by letting their medicals lapse, with the knowlege that 'IF' they want or need to they can go back any time they wish.
There are many good operators with thousands (10K+) of commercial ops that only have that need.
Might reflect in the numbers wouldn't you say?
Also......anyone notice the last table......
J
Yes some of them, and I know quite a few, whose needs have changed over the years, have gone to RAA only by letting their medicals lapse, with the knowlege that 'IF' they want or need to they can go back any time they wish.
There are many good operators with thousands (10K+) of commercial ops that only have that need.
Might reflect in the numbers wouldn't you say?
Also......anyone notice the last table......
J
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Jabawocky,
Who said anything about a C172? I'm taking a Bo to Point Cook. Yes, there are Jabs that will lift more than two, but they all have VH- on the side, which negates the whole idea of an RAAus plane. Friends of mine recently bought a J430 and declined to have the rear seats fitted so it can be RAAus-registered.
FTDK,
Yeah, I know. One day I will have to cross over to the dark side and get an ASIC. For the moment I'm the leader of the resistance. I have this theory that to conform is to condone ... and I sure as hell can't condone the ASIC and the bureacratic BS it represents. Right now I'm finding ways around it.
Walrus
Who said anything about a C172? I'm taking a Bo to Point Cook. Yes, there are Jabs that will lift more than two, but they all have VH- on the side, which negates the whole idea of an RAAus plane. Friends of mine recently bought a J430 and declined to have the rear seats fitted so it can be RAAus-registered.
FTDK,
Yeah, I know. One day I will have to cross over to the dark side and get an ASIC. For the moment I'm the leader of the resistance. I have this theory that to conform is to condone ... and I sure as hell can't condone the ASIC and the bureacratic BS it represents. Right now I'm finding ways around it.
Walrus
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You can put the rear seats in a J400/J430 and it's still registerable as RA-Aus if the rear seatbelts are removed prior to DE-Registration and transfer to RA-Aus. Unless you're the original builder there's no going back.
Jabawocky loves his J430. It has more usable load than a Cirrus SR 20 and with the upgrade to 750mtow, will lift craploads more.
Jabawocky loves his J430. It has more usable load than a Cirrus SR 20 and with the upgrade to 750mtow, will lift craploads more.
The posters to this thread that are getting 'caught' and having to show their ASIC, are mearly demonstraiting that they are honest people.
Whats the saying... A locked gate only keeps the honest people out.
The ASIC ties in with that expensive waste of money - security fenceing. Imagine if that money had been put towards upgrading, rather then selling off airports. These sold off airports are daily getting more expensive for pilots to utilize - thus causeing pilots to leave flying.
Whats the saying... A locked gate only keeps the honest people out.
The ASIC ties in with that expensive waste of money - security fenceing. Imagine if that money had been put towards upgrading, rather then selling off airports. These sold off airports are daily getting more expensive for pilots to utilize - thus causeing pilots to leave flying.
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My experiance comes from both sides of the fence, i worked at a large aerodrome where ASIC's are mandotory - no ASIC no access, no access - no pay, i'm currantly working my way through my PPL Nav-Ex's. Currant emploment (non flying) demands i have an Aust ASIC and they pay for it 
However, i really believe that the new Federal Government seriously change the currant dogs breakfast that is ASIC. When the system was first mooted GA were to recieve grey backgrounds on their cards, this identified you as someone with a legal requirement to acess the GA apron only.
The red background was for the boys and girls who needed to be on the RPT apron. Simple really, do you really need an 'all access' card just to visit the GA apron to have a wizz and a cup of coffee? ( i do however inderstand at some smaller regional aerodromes that the RPT and GA aprons are one and the same)
I think the initial grey card would have satisfied any security concerns and may have been less exspensive for the GA community as (perhaps) the security checks would have been less expsansive. So the red card would distinguish the 'professionals' (with approiate costs) and the grey card the GA types, with again, an approiate cost.
Which ever group of no-hopers made the D to role both cards into one deserves a bullet!
Oh and the Grey card should be valid for 5 years and quite possiably be plastered on the back of your licence.
However, i really believe that the new Federal Government seriously change the currant dogs breakfast that is ASIC. When the system was first mooted GA were to recieve grey backgrounds on their cards, this identified you as someone with a legal requirement to acess the GA apron only.
The red background was for the boys and girls who needed to be on the RPT apron. Simple really, do you really need an 'all access' card just to visit the GA apron to have a wizz and a cup of coffee? ( i do however inderstand at some smaller regional aerodromes that the RPT and GA aprons are one and the same)
I think the initial grey card would have satisfied any security concerns and may have been less exspensive for the GA community as (perhaps) the security checks would have been less expsansive. So the red card would distinguish the 'professionals' (with approiate costs) and the grey card the GA types, with again, an approiate cost.
Which ever group of no-hopers made the D to role both cards into one deserves a bullet!
Oh and the Grey card should be valid for 5 years and quite possiably be plastered on the back of your licence.