The Aussies are coming
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As cockpit crew ? If so, would you have any details about how ?
I would suggest that today as a flying instructor or pilot you can get a temporary long stay visa (Australian version of the E3), work in the industry, and then gain residency.
Why you would leave the US and go to Australia to fly is beyond me, unless it is to get yourself home.
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I can't imagine any qualified foreign pilots coming to a US regional for 20 bucks an hour. For all but the PTF types, it is a pay cut. I do see lots of foreign pilots wanting to work at a major US carrier, starting at 50-60 dollars an hour, and getting on a seniority list of a major airline.
I think the solution that is coming, is the US majors will bring a lot of the RJ flying in-house. Then, and only then, will they be able to attract qualified pilots from around the world.
I think this is coming. All of the majors are hiring far more than they need for the replacement of retirements. I can't think of any reason they are doing this, other than bringing more regional flying in house.
Converting to an FAA license is usually much easier than converting FROM an FAA license, at least for Europeans. Aussies, I don't know.
I think the solution that is coming, is the US majors will bring a lot of the RJ flying in-house. Then, and only then, will they be able to attract qualified pilots from around the world.
I think this is coming. All of the majors are hiring far more than they need for the replacement of retirements. I can't think of any reason they are doing this, other than bringing more regional flying in house.
Converting to an FAA license is usually much easier than converting FROM an FAA license, at least for Europeans. Aussies, I don't know.
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This is another thing that shocked me when I gained some exposure. We Americans consider the Aussies, Brits, and canucks our brethren, friends and allies. The fact is they hate us just the same as the rest of the world does. The running joke around at my airline is......" whats the difference between an Aussie and an American?......The American know that we hate them...." Unfortunately, that's just the way it is.....don't know why.
For the ones that think they will just bang in some time and leave for Asia. Well, once you figure out why the Asians are paying $300k/yr and still can't get enough punters, you will realize there is no better place for aviation than the US. Trust me, once you get a taste of it, you will park it. How can I be so sure. For the past 10 years I've flown for 2 Asian airlines, 1 European, and 1 Middle Eastern.
Don't take offense ya'll, Im just tellin it like it is.
For the ones that think they will just bang in some time and leave for Asia. Well, once you figure out why the Asians are paying $300k/yr and still can't get enough punters, you will realize there is no better place for aviation than the US. Trust me, once you get a taste of it, you will park it. How can I be so sure. For the past 10 years I've flown for 2 Asian airlines, 1 European, and 1 Middle Eastern.
Don't take offense ya'll, Im just tellin it like it is.
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EMB-145LR
Congratulations on finding your path.
I'm guessing you did a couple of thousand hours on the RJ ( not competitive for the U.S. majors), making you a good candidate for your national carrier. Now making the "big dough"
However, I'm pretty sure that putrid environment got you to where you are now. Right or wrong?
I do agree that it is not a savory business back in the U.S. in the lower tier. That is one of the points of this thread. The market is trying to adjust and guys like you coming in to build time induces an artificial stimulus to the imbalance.
I'm guessing you did a couple of thousand hours on the RJ ( not competitive for the U.S. majors), making you a good candidate for your national carrier. Now making the "big dough"
However, I'm pretty sure that putrid environment got you to where you are now. Right or wrong?
I do agree that it is not a savory business back in the U.S. in the lower tier. That is one of the points of this thread. The market is trying to adjust and guys like you coming in to build time induces an artificial stimulus to the imbalance.
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Congratulations on finding your path.
I'm guessing you did a couple of thousand hours on the RJ ( not competitive for the U.S. majors), making you a good candidate for your national carrier. Now making the "big dough"
However, I'm pretty sure that putrid environment got you to where you are now. Right or wrong?
I'm guessing you did a couple of thousand hours on the RJ ( not competitive for the U.S. majors), making you a good candidate for your national carrier. Now making the "big dough"
However, I'm pretty sure that putrid environment got you to where you are now. Right or wrong?
However, something has to be done about the crippling terms and conditions on offer at the regionals. Hopefully the increasing shortage of qualified and willing candidates will put pay to the worst carriers. It was good to see the Republic pilots turn down the new contract, even though it effectively doubled first year pay.
However, while things are good for pilots lucky enough to be at a Major at the moment, both you and I know that history repeats itself. The US majors hire until they furlough. Although this industry is cyclical the world over, it is even more so in the US. During the boom years things are great, but look at the rates the L-UAL pilots were working under until just a couple of years ago. Senior Captains were making a little over $120 an hour on the A320.
The likes of Smisek (thank God he's gone) have made the industry awful in the US. Not just for pilots, but also for passengers. I was embarrassed to offer the product we had at my United Express carrier, and it wasn't any better at mainline. The industry seems to be one of the few in the US that has deserted one of the best aspects of America; great customer service. The whole industry needs massive revamp, and ALPA protectionism isn't going to do much to save it.
It is no accident that out of the most hated brands in America, United was in the top five, with American not too far behind. At least Delta is making some forward progress, but the Middle East Big Three are breathing down their necks.
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I agree. However, the current demographics may negate historical precedence, theoretically. Only time will tell.
I believe, the pressure from the ME3 is a good thing for the U.S. Legacies. Competition breeds innovation and dynamism. They will step up to the plate once they consolidate and solidify their structure after the recent mergers. Delta got a head start hence the notable progress. AA still doesn't have single list. UA, well, you said it best...
I believe, the pressure from the ME3 is a good thing for the U.S. Legacies. Competition breeds innovation and dynamism. They will step up to the plate once they consolidate and solidify their structure after the recent mergers. Delta got a head start hence the notable progress. AA still doesn't have single list. UA, well, you said it best...
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Aussies moving abroad to get jobs ???
Mmmm... Where are gone the days where the Aussie pilot community was outraged at 457 sponsored pilots who were coming to take over the local pilot jobs...?
But an available E3 non immigrant visa is now just SO right?
I seem to remember the rage ...A very short memory from down under.
No jobs available anymore at home : "mate" ? Times are getting harder at home "mate" ?
Still not happy to take a $20job/hour ? Not good enough for an Aussie ?
Just wait, you might be begging/crying for it soon.
Mmmm... Where are gone the days where the Aussie pilot community was outraged at 457 sponsored pilots who were coming to take over the local pilot jobs...?
But an available E3 non immigrant visa is now just SO right?
I seem to remember the rage ...A very short memory from down under.
No jobs available anymore at home : "mate" ? Times are getting harder at home "mate" ?
Still not happy to take a $20job/hour ? Not good enough for an Aussie ?
Just wait, you might be begging/crying for it soon.
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discus2,
There are lots of Americans working in Australia on 457 visas, how many of the 3000 Boeing employees in Australia do you think are on those visas ? Northrop Grumman, Lockheed, GE, PW, IBM ? The aerospace/defense industry is full of them, on wages way above the Australian average.
Across all industries, 457 visa holders earn 34% more than local staff on average. With an average annual base salary of $94,000, the average 457 visa holder sits comfortably above the 75th percentile of Australian full time salaries.
Please stick to the facts.
There are lots of Americans working in Australia on 457 visas, how many of the 3000 Boeing employees in Australia do you think are on those visas ? Northrop Grumman, Lockheed, GE, PW, IBM ? The aerospace/defense industry is full of them, on wages way above the Australian average.
Across all industries, 457 visa holders earn 34% more than local staff on average. With an average annual base salary of $94,000, the average 457 visa holder sits comfortably above the 75th percentile of Australian full time salaries.
Please stick to the facts.
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not competitive for the U.S. majors
West Coast,
"... I work for SkyWest, we are losing many, many RJ pilots a month to the majors. Friends at other RJ operators are reporting the same."
Exactly !! With the demand only increasing at the legacy level. The peak of the mandatory-retirement bell curve doesn't come until 2028...and remains strong for years after 2028 but with decreasing annual numbers.
Which is why it wouldn't have surprised me to find a regional sponsoring expats. I'm a bit surprised to find they apparently aren't doing that after all.
Oh well...
"... I work for SkyWest, we are losing many, many RJ pilots a month to the majors. Friends at other RJ operators are reporting the same."
Exactly !! With the demand only increasing at the legacy level. The peak of the mandatory-retirement bell curve doesn't come until 2028...and remains strong for years after 2028 but with decreasing annual numbers.
Which is why it wouldn't have surprised me to find a regional sponsoring expats. I'm a bit surprised to find they apparently aren't doing that after all.
Oh well...
flyboyike,
I have no idea what it'd take for a regional to set up this process. Perhaps just some time with an immigration attorney to set up the company process for advertising for candidates and processing their visas ? Maybe then a knowledgeable secretary could run it from there using intermittent contact with the attorney thereafter for snags ?
zondaracer seems to have seen this from the inside and reports no such activity.
oicur12.again, the person who kicked this off in the Aussie forum with some pretty definitive statements, and pilotchute, who just heard from Skywest directly, tell rather different stories. I'M NOT INCLINED TO DOUBT EITHER ONE OF THEM.
After all, they were both talking to a regional HR department, so...
The proof is in the pudding; if Skywest aren't availing themselves of a process likely to turn out a number of applicants, perhaps they're not all that hard up (yet ?).
[I get the impression Expressjet is hard up and yet clearly states they want nothing to do with sponsorship. They're not losing pilots...they're bleeding pilots.]
And, "...(discrimination claims ?)..." ? Surely you aren't suggesting that our beloved Imperial Federal Government would devise and implement a plan that could later be deemed discriminatory by its very structure ?
Fun to watch...still wouldn't surprise me if some regional started using this process to circumvent the damage done by the vote trollops in DC. We'll see...
I have no idea what it'd take for a regional to set up this process. Perhaps just some time with an immigration attorney to set up the company process for advertising for candidates and processing their visas ? Maybe then a knowledgeable secretary could run it from there using intermittent contact with the attorney thereafter for snags ?
zondaracer seems to have seen this from the inside and reports no such activity.
oicur12.again, the person who kicked this off in the Aussie forum with some pretty definitive statements, and pilotchute, who just heard from Skywest directly, tell rather different stories. I'M NOT INCLINED TO DOUBT EITHER ONE OF THEM.
After all, they were both talking to a regional HR department, so...
The proof is in the pudding; if Skywest aren't availing themselves of a process likely to turn out a number of applicants, perhaps they're not all that hard up (yet ?).
[I get the impression Expressjet is hard up and yet clearly states they want nothing to do with sponsorship. They're not losing pilots...they're bleeding pilots.]
And, "...(discrimination claims ?)..." ? Surely you aren't suggesting that our beloved Imperial Federal Government would devise and implement a plan that could later be deemed discriminatory by its very structure ?
Fun to watch...still wouldn't surprise me if some regional started using this process to circumvent the damage done by the vote trollops in DC. We'll see...
Last edited by bafanguy; 13th Sep 2015 at 21:09.
I've tried not to contribute to thread drift since I think this thread (and it's companion in the Aussie forum) is pretty interesting. But, I remembered I've got a link to an academic study of the US pilot shortage issue that may (or may not) be relevant to the conditions that prompted this thread.
It's written as a PhD thesis, I believe, and is therefore strictly a data-based treatment of the subject by an apparently impartial author.
Being a hardcore cynic, I view any study of the US pilot supply done by a person or party with even a remote chance of financial and/or political gain from seeing the data show one conclusion or another as suspect at least. This makes studies done by government, labor groups and industry representatives have potential bias.
Here's the link:
Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation | RAND
Click the button in the upper right to download the PDF. The study is a bit long with lots of charts and data but worth your time if you've a bit of a geek like me.
The author pointed out to me in private correspondence that his data runs out for about 15 years +/-.
It's written as a PhD thesis, I believe, and is therefore strictly a data-based treatment of the subject by an apparently impartial author.
Being a hardcore cynic, I view any study of the US pilot supply done by a person or party with even a remote chance of financial and/or political gain from seeing the data show one conclusion or another as suspect at least. This makes studies done by government, labor groups and industry representatives have potential bias.
Here's the link:
Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation | RAND
Click the button in the upper right to download the PDF. The study is a bit long with lots of charts and data but worth your time if you've a bit of a geek like me.
The author pointed out to me in private correspondence that his data runs out for about 15 years +/-.
Last edited by bafanguy; 17th Sep 2015 at 15:58.
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Interesting study, bafanguy. wading thru some of it now. One minor detail which jumped out at me, in section 2 the author reviews other previous related studies. In the discussion of a MITRE report he notes that the MITRE report cites 8000 pilots who were issued an ATP in the US and are now working abroad as a potential source of pilots for US airlines. The RAND paper dismisses this explaining that they are foreign pilots who came to the US for flight training and thus not potential pilots for US airlines.
I think that they are mistaken here. I don't know what the criteria was in the MITRE report, but I do know the there are a lot of US citizens flying for airlines in Asia and the Mideast. Not sure hoe any, but I don't think that their numbers are inconsequential. I would imagine that many of them could be persuaded back to the US with decent pay and conditions.
I think that they are mistaken here. I don't know what the criteria was in the MITRE report, but I do know the there are a lot of US citizens flying for airlines in Asia and the Mideast. Not sure hoe any, but I don't think that their numbers are inconsequential. I would imagine that many of them could be persuaded back to the US with decent pay and conditions.
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From a General Accounting Office report referenced in the RAND Report.
Cliff's notes: Airlines are paying less and less. Astonishingly, pilots are less willing to work for decreasing wages.
Historical labor market data from 2000 through 2012 provide mixed evidence as to whether an airline pilot shortage exists. The unemployment rate for the pilot occupation—a key indicator for a shortage—has been much lower than for the economy as a whole, which is consistent with a shortage. On the other hand, wage earnings and employment were not consistent with the existence of a shortage, as data for both indicators showed decreases over the period. In looking forward, to meet the expectation of growth in the industry and to replace expected mandatory age-related pilot retirements, projections indicate the industry will need to hire a few thousand pilots on average each year over the next 10 years. Data indicate that a large pool of qualified pilots exists relative to the projected demand, but whether such pilots are willing or available to work at wages being offered is unknown (GAO 2014).
A Squared,
Yes, I think I remember that number also. I don't see how one gets a clear breakdown of how many Americans are working in the expat world since there's no central collection point for that data...or their age demographic since that'd be a critical factor in their employment chances with US legacies in the broad scheme of it.
Who can say whether that 8,000, if employable here, would want to leave an expat captain slot, come back here and be a junior MD80 FO, in a crash pad and on reserve in NYC covering 3 airports...at a fraction of what they were making ? A handful of anecdotal opinions here won't answer that question, I'm afraid.
I sure don't know how anyone can begin to answer that particular question.
I've heard a very knowledgeable American guy say he put the number of US citizens working in the expat market at 1,000+/-. He wasn't making a definitive pronouncement but rather an educated estimate.
Many of that 8,000 probably are foreign nationals who aren't candidates for US carriers due to citizenship issues...probably...
In any event, even 8,000 won't solve the problem (if it is a problem) of replacing legacy retirement attrition. Delta alone is aging out 8,000 pilots between Jan/2014 and Dec/2028. The annual numbers peak at the end of 2028 but continue at a pretty good, but annually-declining clip after 2028.
UAL and AA have similar circumstances (UPS and FedEx are also losing people but not such large percentages).
Hiring a bunch of 50+ y/o people from the expat market would help but to a limited extent as they'd age out about the time the attrition peaks. What then ?
I've been watching this stuff since the late 60s..and still don't feel I have a grip on it.
Mike McGee's study is a really good one.
My opinion, on the other hand, is worth exactly what you paid for it !!
Yes, I think I remember that number also. I don't see how one gets a clear breakdown of how many Americans are working in the expat world since there's no central collection point for that data...or their age demographic since that'd be a critical factor in their employment chances with US legacies in the broad scheme of it.
Who can say whether that 8,000, if employable here, would want to leave an expat captain slot, come back here and be a junior MD80 FO, in a crash pad and on reserve in NYC covering 3 airports...at a fraction of what they were making ? A handful of anecdotal opinions here won't answer that question, I'm afraid.
I sure don't know how anyone can begin to answer that particular question.
I've heard a very knowledgeable American guy say he put the number of US citizens working in the expat market at 1,000+/-. He wasn't making a definitive pronouncement but rather an educated estimate.
Many of that 8,000 probably are foreign nationals who aren't candidates for US carriers due to citizenship issues...probably...
In any event, even 8,000 won't solve the problem (if it is a problem) of replacing legacy retirement attrition. Delta alone is aging out 8,000 pilots between Jan/2014 and Dec/2028. The annual numbers peak at the end of 2028 but continue at a pretty good, but annually-declining clip after 2028.
UAL and AA have similar circumstances (UPS and FedEx are also losing people but not such large percentages).
Hiring a bunch of 50+ y/o people from the expat market would help but to a limited extent as they'd age out about the time the attrition peaks. What then ?
I've been watching this stuff since the late 60s..and still don't feel I have a grip on it.
Mike McGee's study is a really good one.
My opinion, on the other hand, is worth exactly what you paid for it !!