A Squared,
Yes, I think I remember that number also. I don't see how one gets a clear breakdown of how many Americans are working in the expat world since there's no central collection point for that data...or their age demographic since that'd be a critical factor in their employment chances with US legacies in the broad scheme of it.
Who can say whether that 8,000, if employable here, would want to leave an expat captain slot, come back here and be a junior MD80 FO, in a crash pad and on reserve in NYC covering 3 airports...at a fraction of what they were making ? A handful of anecdotal opinions here won't answer that question, I'm afraid.
I sure don't know how anyone can begin to answer that particular question.
I've heard a very knowledgeable American guy say he put the number of US citizens working in the expat market at 1,000+/-. He wasn't making a definitive pronouncement but rather an educated estimate.
Many of that 8,000 probably are foreign nationals who aren't candidates for US carriers due to citizenship issues...probably...
In any event, even 8,000 won't solve the problem (if it is a problem) of replacing legacy retirement attrition. Delta alone is aging out 8,000 pilots between Jan/2014 and Dec/2028. The annual numbers peak at the end of 2028 but continue at a pretty good, but annually-declining clip after 2028.
UAL and AA have similar circumstances (UPS and FedEx are also losing people but not such large percentages).
Hiring a bunch of 50+ y/o people from the expat market would help but to a limited extent as they'd age out about the time the attrition peaks. What then ?
I've been watching this stuff since the late 60s..and still don't feel I have a grip on it.
Mike McGee's study is a really good one.
My opinion, on the other hand, is worth exactly what you paid for it !!