I've tried not to contribute to thread drift since I think this thread (and it's companion in the Aussie forum) is pretty interesting. But, I remembered I've got a link to an academic study of the US pilot shortage issue that may (or may not) be relevant to the conditions that prompted this thread.
It's written as a PhD thesis, I believe, and is therefore strictly a data-based treatment of the subject by an apparently impartial author.
Being a hardcore cynic, I view any study of the US pilot supply done by a person or party with even a remote chance of financial and/or political gain from seeing the data show one conclusion or another as suspect at least. This makes studies done by government, labor groups and industry representatives have potential bias.
Here's the link:
Air Transport Pilot Supply and Demand: Current State and Effects of Recent Legislation | RAND
Click the button in the upper right to download the PDF. The study is a bit long with lots of charts and data but worth your time if you've a bit of a geek like me.
The author pointed out to me in private correspondence that his data runs out for about 15 years +/-.