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Iran V2.0
FWIW, saw a news item this morning that the US has 'detected 10 Iranian mines' in the SoH.
Not a lot of detail, I'll check the CENTCOM web page later and see if there is more to that story. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12089156)
FWIW, saw a news item this morning that the US has 'detected 10 Iranian mines' in the SoH.
Not a lot of detail, I'll check the CENTCOM web page later and see if there is more to that story. US forces identified at least 10 mines planted by Iran in the , CBS News reported on Wednesday, citing US officials with knowledge of the matter. The mines were discovered following a recent US intelligence assessment. A previous CBS report from March said there were at least a dozen underwater mines in the Strait, according to US intelligence reports. Officials had said the mines were Maham 3 and Maham 7 Limpet mines, both manufactured in Iran, CBS reported. |
Salute!
Somehow, I have not been able to find the "international" maritime law/agreement/treaty specifying Iran as the nation responsible for ensuring safe passge thru the "international" sealanes of Hormuz. Further, if we find that piece of paper, does it allow iran to distribute mines willy-nilly if they are involved in military action with states NOT signing said agreement/treaty/ whatever. Gums asks..... |
Originally Posted by gums
(Post 12089286)
Salute!
Somehow, I have not been able to find the "international" maritime law/agreement/treaty specifying Iran as the nation responsible for ensuring safe passge thru the "international" sealanes of Hormuz. Further, if we find that piece of paper, does it allow iran to distribute mines willy-nilly if they are involved in military action with states NOT signing said agreement/treaty/ whatever. Gums asks..... |
Originally Posted by BonnieLass
(Post 12089197)
Would this be what you saw, Lonewolf_50 ?
More detail here : At least ten mines discovered in Strait of Hormuz, US intelligence says - CBS (Jerusalem Post - May 20, 2026) https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazard...-7-limpet-mine https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazard...aham-3-seamine I'm not sure I'd call them "limpet" mines, sounds to me like there is some confusion out there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limpet_mine A swimmer-applied limpet mine may have been the cause of that underwater machinery space damage a few weeks ago to HMM NAMU. The Ghadir class mini submarines appear to have the capability to deploy swimmers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghadir-class_submarine It is a lot easier for swimmers to be effective if their target vessels have been neatly rounded up into small stationary groups. |
Todays updates from the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Bab-el-Mandab Strait.......plus the new pipeline to beat the Strait is ahead of schedule, checkpoints and cash in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi oil shipments hit a 20 year low and another shadow fleet boarded and redirected by the USN
The new pipeline that will run alongside an existing one to Fujairah from the Persian Gulf is already 50% completed after the project was accelerated due to the hostilities. The existing pipeline carries an average of 1.8 million barrels per day, the new one once finished, slated to be early 2027, will double that capacity.The Abu Dhabi Media Office revealed the existence of the new West-East Pipeline project last week, saying Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed directed state-owned oil giant ADNOC to fast-track its construction in order to double export capacity via the port of Fujairah by 2027. "Today, it's already almost 50 per cent complete, and we are accelerating its delivery towards 2027," Sultan Al Jaber said during a live-streamed Atlantic Council event, among his most extensive public remarks since the war began. "Right now, too much of the world's energy still moves through too few choke points. That is exactly why the UAE made the decision more than a decade ago to invest in infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz." The various ways and means that are being used by the Iranians to monitor and charge ships that wish to transit the Strait of Hormuz has been subject to close scrutiny, especially in regard to dodging the US sanctions and USN. Outside of government agreements, the process to secure Iranian permission to transit involves a detailed vetting procedure conducted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s elite fighting force, according to three Iranian sources and a European shipping source. “The affiliation check is to identify if the vessel has any connection to the US or Israel,” said the European shipping source. It takes about a week for the Guards to review documentation, and during the process they may want to physically inspect the ship, the source said. The IRGC requires ship owners to disclose details including the value of the ship’s cargo, the flag, its origin and destination, the registered owner and manager, and nationalities of the crew, according to documents reviewed by Reuters that were sent to shipping industry sources by Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority. The authority was set up in recent weeks to approve and tax vessel transits. The vetting is carried out by Iranian state institutions including the Ports and Maritime Organisation, the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, the national shipping organisation, and the security overseer of the Supreme National Security Council, according to the three senior Iranian officials. The IRGC, which has broad oversight over Iranian security, is also involved in evaluating the ships, the officials said. Bilateral arrangements for passage include an additional step: Countries contact Iran’s foreign minister to request permission. The minister forwards these to the Supreme National Security Council, which includes the IRGC and representatives of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, one of the officials said. As posted last week in relation to Iraqi oil movements having dropped due to the ongoing hostilities, so too has Saudi Arabia's. This has not been helped by the attacks on their main pipeline from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Oil prices are still fluctuating upwards despite the US administration holding off further attacks, attacks from within Iraq over the weekend unsettled the markets significantly Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports dropped to a record low of 4.974 million barrels per day in March, based on data since January 2002, Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) data showed on Wednesday. Saudi production in March was about 6.967 million bpd, the JODI data showed, also the lowest on record, down from 10.882 million bpd in February. Monthly export figures are provided by Riyadh and other members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to JODI, a data transparency initiative coordinated by energy organisations including OPEC and the IEA. The Iran war has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, driving oil prices sharply higher. "At the beginning of the conflict, flows via the Strait of Hormuz were completely disrupted, impacting exports from within the Persian Gulf. The ramp up of exports from the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea and using inventories stored abroad should have helped the Kingdom to recover exports later in the month," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. ............. Brent crude futures were trading at around $108 a barrel on Wednesday, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were near $101.46. Saudi Arabia's refinery crude throughput in March fell by 0.746 million bpd to 2.266 million bpd from February's 3.012 million bpd, the JODI data showed, while direct crude burning increased by 82,000 bpd to 330,000 bpd. Oil products tanker, Celestial Sea, was boarded by USN on May 20, 2026 off Muscat, Oman. There were suspicions that she was heading towards Iran despite having Khor Fakkan on her AIS as destination. The ship was released after a full inspection and told to change her course. U.S. Marines boarded the tanker from helicopters while it was in the Gulf of Oman. According to CENTCOM, the vessel was searched redicted before it was released. The Celestial Sea is well-known as one of Iran’s shadow fleet vessels. The United States sanctioned the tanker in April 2025 while it was operating under the name Harmony. The NGO UANI (United Against Nuclear Iran) reports it blacklisted the vessel in 2023. Her current position : https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a4db6f8b9f.png So onto the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandab Strait The line of small cargo ships seems to have reformed tween Khasab and Ramchah / Larak Island. As a result the route south of Larak has gone quiet...or perhaps dark. Traffic is down again and at time of writing there have been no reports of incidents https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....756cbd7544.png The Bab-el-Mandab Strait is very busy this morning, free flowing and as above, no reported incidents as yet this morning https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c95031cbec.png The Persian Gulf anchorages and ports are all operating well, anchorages are congested but much of the larger ship traffic has gone dark. There is a queue forming to go to Umm Qasr in Iraq, Doha anchorage is almost empty again. The large fishing fleets of the Persian Gulf (small orangey red dots and arrows are off Saudi Arabia and have been largely static, likely due to the extreme oil contamination along the Iranian shoreline and islands https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....764db4a290.png The anchorages off Ras-al-Khaimah, Mina Saqr, Umm Quwain and Dubai, there has been some very heavy clustering going on, all of the ships from Das Island anchorage have been pushed / herded together by the Iranians which is not a good sign https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e98bf28258.png On the Gulf of Oman, once again Dibba, Furjairah and Khor Fakkan ports and anchorages appear to have been cleared, ships from those areas now anchored, against very heavy clustering with Iranian babysitters close by, off Al Widyyat and Sohar anchorages. Again this is somewhat indicative of possible attack or other issues forthcoming. Muscat, just about viewable to the bottom right of the screenshot is, once again busy. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1e0ddb136e.png Still no active AIS for CMA CGM San Antonio nor further updates on her crew. It does seem that she has, infact, been lost. Hoping to get updates on her injured crew when they become available. That's it for now....more updates tomorrow. |
'... some confusion' indeed.
Just hoping the announcement of mines is not a false flag in order to kick something off again. I would want to see proof of what they found, and dated credibly in order to distinguish the 'latest' finds from the 'twelve' detected earlier, back in March. |
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 12089451)
'... some confusion' indeed.
Just hoping the announcement of mines is not a false flag in order to kick something off again. I would want to see proof of what they found, and dated credibly in order to distinguish the 'latest' finds from the 'twelve' detected earlier, back in March. Surely not........... |
10 mines discovered.
US forces identified at least 10 mines planted by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, CBS News reported on Wednesday, citing US officials with knowledge of the matter. No photo's. No video's, no screen shots of the 'detection' monitor screens...! "Citing US officials with knowledge of the matter..". - probably their friend who has a friend who is close to the source who wants to remain anonymous... Anyway: Aljazeera running with that Iran is offering to 'Downblend' it's nuclear material. Iran war live: Tehran reviews US peace proposal as fear of war rises | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera |
Todays updates on the Strait of Homuz and Bab-el-Mandab and all anchorages in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman........plus Mother Nature is causing problems for stranded ships and empty skies, spoofing and diversions
Mother Nature, it seems is getting her own back on the hundreds of stranded ships in the Persian Gulf. Heavy contamination from barnacles, jellyfish and algae is building on the hulls, propellers and inside the sea chests. This build up, over time, will slow the ships down when they do eventually move, contamination inside the sea chests that take water into the enginerooms and onboard desalination equipment will cause issues that will eventually damage those systems, sometimes rendering them inoperable. There is also the potential cross-contamination of algae and creatures moving from one area into another that might not have that specific variety. Ecologically speaking significant damage can be done when a ship passes from one area to another if that ship has excessive invasive species on the hull or within the stern / bow thrusters and sea chests. According to the Financial Times, at least 800 merchant ships remain stranded in Gulf waters after fighting broke out on February 28, leaving around 20,000 seafarers on board carrying out basic maintenance as they wait. But long periods at anchor in the Gulf’s warm, shallow waters are now creating a fresh operational challenge. “When you don’t move… you have a lot of fouling growing,” said Lasse Kristoffersen, chief executive of Wallenius Wilhelmsen, which has one ship currently stuck in the Gulf. Marine growth such as barnacles, algae and jellyfish can clog protective gratings and interfere with pipe systems. It can also attach to ship hulls and propellers, creating drag that slows vessels down and increases fuel use. The longer ships remain stranded, the greater the pressure on crews. Seafarers told industry groups they are struggling to get replacement parts for broken systems because ship owners are finding it difficult to arrange transport to vessels waiting offshore. Manoj Yadav, general secretary of the Forward Seamen’s Union of India, said one ship had been waiting 15 days for a replacement GPS part that would normally have arrived within one or two days. “In this situation the owners are not feeling comfortable to find a charter boat to take the material up to anchorage,” he said. Yadav said the psychological strain on crews is also growing after some have spent more than 70 days on stationary ships. “Their mind is upset because there is no job on board… It’s a kind of jail for them,” he said. With Gulf summer heat intensifying and no clear resolution in sight, shipping companies are now dealing with an unusual reality: ships that are not moving are slowly becoming harder to move. Commercial flights over Iran have dropped significantly with aircraft diverting to avoid Iranian airspace, especially where threats of further attack exist Commercial air traffic over Iran has thinned dramatically, reviving fears of a possible new military escalation in the Middle East even as regional powers intensify diplomatic efforts to salvage fragile negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The unusually empty skies above Iran — coupled with widespread electronic navigation disruptions reported in the Arabian Gulf — have triggered speculation among military observers and analysts that preparations for possible strikes may already be underway. ............ Marine and aviation monitoring platforms, including MarineTraffic and Flightradar24, have shown what analysts described as large-scale AIS and transponder spoofing activity northwest of Dubai. Hundreds of ships and aircraft appeared to transmit false or overlapping location data simultaneously, creating confusion across tracking systems. Electronic warfare specialists say such spoofing can occur during periods of heightened military tension, though experts cautioned that similar disruptions may also result from defensive countermeasures, cyber activity or regional military exercises. No government has publicly linked the spoofing activity to an imminent strike. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to prevent another conflict have intensified. According to Axios, regional mediators including Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt have been working to bridge gaps between US and Iranian negotiators. Onto the Strait, ports and anchorages..... There is a fair amount of ship movements for the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandab Strait is running freely https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3dec13afef.png https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cf033fffba.png Therer has been one report of suspicious activity off Socotra https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d289bf469b.png The ports and anchorages of Doha, Damamm, Al Faw and Kuwait are still very congested and busy https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d298e47c4d.png Clusters of ships still present off the UAE ports and they still have their herders milling around them https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4500784dab.png Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Dibba ports and anchorages have thinned down again today with most shipos now off Al Widiyyat, Liwa and Sohar https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4fab4172eb.png Still no updates on the remaining crew of CMA CGM San Antonio That's all for today...back tomorrow |
Thanks, BonnieLass , but I'm wondering whether Marine Traffic is a reliable source for Hormuz at the moment, if so many vessels are co-ordinating their spoofing?
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Originally Posted by AirScotia
(Post 12090093)
Thanks, BonnieLass , but I'm wondering whether Marine Traffic is a reliable source for Hormuz at the moment, if so many vessels are co-ordinating their spoofing?
Edited to add a couple of photos from one of my trips in the region...one of the armed guards and the cage welded onto the lower deck areas to prevent climbing / access by "uninvited guests" https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9c44a8deff.png https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6444755543.png |
A set of slides by John Kemp re LNG situation.
https://jkempenergy.wordpress.com/wp...2026-05-20.pdf |
Salute!
Excuse me, but this comment almost made me spit my coffee on the keyboard... "My post was just a comment, just about on topic, not intended for forensic dissection." Beam me up! Many folks on this forum consider U.S. news media comments as official policy and/or rartionale for military or economic action by the U.S. administration. Likewise, it's hard determining whether many comments here are actually re-phrased official policies or plain old opinions by the poster. From now on, consider 57.45% of what I post is opinion based upon real world experience, then about 30.64% as re-phrased official policy that has been expressed publically and remaining about 10% as pure BS! Gums sends... Gums sends... |
gums, I will take as given that the other 1.1% will be Jeremiah Weed. ;)
(A crazed USAF Major who was flying Tweets in Laughlin AFB (Del Rio) introduced me to that fine tipple...) Latest news from Iran / Pakistan / Washington on the topic of peace talks...
Originally Posted by CBS news
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Todays updates for the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandab Strait, all Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman ports and anchorages........plus Iran has rewritten its map of the Strait of Hormuz again, another Socotra warning and France drafting up a UN resolution
So once again Iran has been rewriting the Strait of Hormuz charts and maps and causing yet more anguish for the crews aboard the stranded ships who are rapidly running out of basic supplies. Iran's publication of a new map asserting its control over the Strait of Hormuz risks extending an already punishing ordeal for thousands of mariners trapped on ships in the Persian Gulf. More than 20,000 sailors are stuck on around 2,000 vessels in the gulf, many of them unable to leave ship, lacking adequate supplies of food and fresh water, and fearful of an uncertain future at sea in a war zone. Sailors interviewed by Reuters in recent weeks have described the hardships and anxieties of their experience, and a federation representing them warns of dire conditions. "The only thing we do here is plan how to spend the night and pray to God that we do not get hit during an attack," Indian sailor Salman Siddiqui said by phone from his stranded ship last month. .......... From the Saudi port of Dammam, about seven large ships were visible moored out at sea - an unusually large number in normal times. As the resupply ship bobbed alongside the tanker in a stiff wind, the sailors aboard called out across the water while they winched aboard large sacks of medical goods. Mohit Kohli, the captain of a large cargo vessel caught in the gulf when the war began after sailing from Singapore, said that when he first heard the Strait could be closed he, "could not even fathom that this was remotely possible". His German-owned ship managed to secure a safe anchor off Dammam, but just over a week into the war the crew started to see and hear the missiles and drones Iran was directing at gulf states. "The crew who was usually loud and happy were now silent. Meals got shorter. Conversations were more guarded," he said, describing the atmosphere on board in a Reuters interview this month after his return to India. Another incident off Socotra has been reported. The ship's armed guards force the interloper to sail away from the ship. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....92f59be987.png France has pushed forward with a UN resolution to deal with the Strait of Hormuz situation, this one will join another resolution brought about by Bahrain and the US which has been in discussion for two weeks but delayed due to potential veto by China and Russia France has drafted a UN Security Council resolution on setting up an international mission to restore movement in the Strait of Hormuz and could submit it if conditions are right, the foreign ministry said on Friday, as Washington struggles to bring to a vote a text Russia and China may say is biased against Tehran. Control of the narrow waterway, a vital artery for global energy trade whose virtual closure has led to spiralling oil prices, is a major obstacle in talks to end the three-month-old US-Iran war. A US-Bahraini resolution on the strait has been under discussion for more than two weeks, with a vote repeatedly delayed as China and Russia signal they could veto it. To the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandab Strait The Strait of Hormuz appears busy but most of the green and blue arrows milling around are Iranian vessels, there are no significant foreign ships making transit so far today. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ca7b924364.png Down at the other choke point, Bab-el-Mandab Strait, it is fairly busy, everything currently flowing well https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a62b7e0070.png Ports and anchorages from Doha to Umm Qasr are mainly static with many ships just milling about rather than anchored https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....25fddb1d8b.png Ports and anchorages from Mina Saqr have thinned out a little and there are fewer Iranian herders. However it has to be remembered that many ships will be AIS dark for a variety of reasons https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ac247fa29a.png On the other side, all ports are up and running normally and there is some heavy congestion at the anchorages at Dibba, Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Al Widyyat and Liwa. Iranian herders are more in evidence in the area https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dae1527d3b.png As has been the case for the last week or so, no new news about CMA CGM San Antonio at this time. That's all for now....back tomorrow. |
Truth at last.
Finally…someone has confirmed my theory that many problems in this War / excursion / military operation are caused by “Spineless Jellyfish” and other mindless bottom feeders! [ “According to the Financial Times, at least 800 merchant ships remain stranded in Gulf waters after fighting broke out on February 28, leaving around 20,000 seafarers on board carrying out basic maintenance as they wait. But long periods at anchor in the Gulf’s warm, shallow waters are now creating a fresh operational challenge. “When you don’t move… you have a lot of fouling growing,” said Lasse Kristoffersen, chief executive of Wallenius Wilhelmsen, which has one ship currently stuck in the Gulf. Marine growth such as barnacles, algae and jellyfish can clog protective gratings and interfere with pipe systems. It can also attach to ship hulls and propellers, creating drag that slows vessels down and increases fuel use.”] |
A spot of wartime irony, if you will......
Bearing in mind that upwards of 40 ships are now deemed beyond economical repair and others may still follow due to age and damage received by fouling or attacks within the Persian Gulf...a couple of days ago a contract was finally signed after months of negotiation. The Indian ship recycling firm Prya Blue and Bahrain's ASRY are starting a joint venture to recycle ships using the latest ecological and environmental standards. Arabian Gulf’s maritime repair and fabrication facilityASRY and India’s Priya Blue Group have joined forces to create a ship recycling venture in Bahrain. The deal brings together the Arab Shipbuilding & Repair Yard Company (ASRY) with India’s ship recycling yard Priya Blue, establishing what the companies describe as the Middle East’s largest ship recycling facility. “Together, we will deliver dry dock, slipway and alongside recycling for vessels up to ULCC size, alongside FPSOs, FSOs, rigs and complex offshore assets,” Priya Blue Group said in a statement Tuesday. Anchored in Bahrain, the partnership gives Priya Blue a global footprint beyond South Asia. “This is not an experiment,” the company claims and describes the move as “a deliberate expansion of a proven operation.” The two partners have formally launched their joint venture following the arrival of the first vessel for recycling in Bahrain. Timing is everything......especially in war. |
Today's updates on the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandab Strait, Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman ports and anchorages........plus a troubling question for shipowners and checks & balances in the oil and gas markets
With the return to normal transit levels of the Strait of Hormuz taking so long, shipowners are now having to consider placing ships that are stuck in the Persian Gulf into lay-up and repatriating crews and leaving smaller, crews aboard the ships to keep the systems running. With the chances of a safe transit diminishing and the potential of hostilities increasing, the shipowners are in a difficult situation and their crews are in an even worse situation by virtue of being stuck in a warzone and running out of basic commodities and their ships being fouled up. How long will these 20,000 innocent seafarers who did not sign up to be on ships in conflict zone have to endure being stranded thousands of miles from home from their families who wait helplessly? At the same time the very ships they are sitting on remain possible targets even if they are not trying to exit the Strait, especially if the uneasy ceasefire between the US and Iran fails and bombing starts again in earnest. This leaves essentially two options - take the risk of exiting the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz or evacuate seafarers on ships currently stranded and put those vessels into a more permanent form of lay-up. On the first option the publication this week of Industry Guidance on the Safe Management of Vessel Transit through the Strait of Hormuz produced and supported by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), IMCA, Intercargo, Bimco, Intertanko, and OCIMF, hardly made for comforting reading for those planning a transit. And as attempts at transits have shown while some may end safely, others have ended in missile strikes with severely injured crew or vessels being seized by Iran. In the second option by moving to warm or cold lay-up the majority or all of the crew onboard vessels stranded in the Gulf could be brought ashore and repatriated. Something that needs to be explained about the fouling of the hull and other below waterline areas of a ship. If a ship that has been stuck in the Gulf for months, not moved apart from an occasional swing on the anchors, the build up will be significant. The problem is that every area of the world has its own species of friendly and not friendly / invasive fouling. For example if the Strait opened for normal business tomorrow the ships would not only move much slower and use more fuel due to the fouling but if they were destined to go somewhere that has protected waters...such as the Maldives or the GBR area of Australia, they would need to be drydocked and have all of the fouling removed before they could sail.....essentially they cannot enter another area with what is seen as contamination of their hulls, seachests, rudders and propellers. So leaving a ship static whether laid up or simply unable to move away is not an easy task to deal with once that opportunity to leave arises, you have serious ecological and environmental issues to consider too. The oil and gas markets have understandably been twitchy during the hostilities and now when you have the potential for an agreement or more hostilities looming. Countries around the world have made various arrangements to try and be mindful of oil and gas use, and the industry heads have tried to keep things controlled as best that they can... Whether the conflict is settled within the next few days or not, the shipping community needs to be ready. The loss of 14 million barrels per day of oil, which used to come through the Strait of Hormuz, has been calculated by Reuters and Kpler to be worth more than US$50 billion since the beginning of the war, sufficient to keep global shipping fueled for 4 months, and a hole that is going to take some filling. Should the war end this week, there will be a rush to restock to avoid imminent shortages, with oil afloat in the Gulf the first to get on the move. Conversely, a resumption of warfare will generate further safety concerns for ships in the danger area, but also put increased focus on oil stocks held afloat, particularly in Southeast Asia. ..............U.S. production of both oil and gas has soared to maximum available capacity, placing a strain on the infrastructure, particularly so when maintenance is delayed to exploit the high prices, which are likely to fall back when the crisis abates. Higher prices in the West have curtailed demand to an extent, with alternative energy sources being used where these are available. Sanctions against imports from Russia have been relaxed in some narrowly-defined shortage areas as a contingency. The same is very much true of China, where reserves estimated at 1.1 billion barrels remain healthy, and consumption has been reduced in the light of higher prices. Politically, China is not so badly affected by shortages that it felt any need to help President Trump out with the issue on his recent visit to Beijing. For the moment, President Xi Jinping is comfortable enough to sit on the sidelines and let the United States sort the mess out on its own. The most significant pinch-points are firstly in Japan and Korea, where even though strategic reserves are substantial, there is a high dependency on imports – up to 85 percent in the case of Japan, in part a failure to replace indigenous energy generation following the closure of nuclear plants in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Onto the Strait of Hormuz.....there has been an increase in traffic, albeit very slight in the last 24 hours. Mostly Chinese ships with stated Chinese crews on their AIS using the Strait in both directions. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....46bd7e1a63.png The Bab-el-Mandab Strait is running well and at time of writing no further incidents reported https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....972514e70d.png Very little movement from or to ports within the Persian Gulf from Umm Qasr in Iraq down to Doha, Qatar. The vast number of pleasure craft in Bahrain seems to have switched off their AIS and perhaps given up leaving the region for now, especially as temperatures start to soar, probably easier to wait things out in the hotels and villas....something that, of course, is not available to the seafarers. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c487900094.png On the Mina Qasr to Dubai ports and anchorages, the Iranian herders are back and keeping the majority of the ships in a very tight huddle offshore...one of the herders shown below https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6a84312753.png https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7a572d14e8.png On the Gulf of Oman side, all ports are still running to capacity, the anchorages of Dibba, Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Liwa and Al Widyyat are extremely congested once again but with very few herders present https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dac85f26de.png No news regarding the CMA CGM San Antonio crew, the ship has not been on AIS for almost 3 weeks now. No further repatriation of her injured crew as yet. That's it for today....back tomorrow. |
Isw:
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/2...090173701?s=20 iran update special report, may 24, 2026: Conflicting us, iranian, and regional reporting indicates that the contours of a possible us-iran memorandum of understanding (mou) remain unresolved and may not yet represent a final agreement. More key takeaways: Iranian officials, islamic revolutionary guards corps (irgc)-affiliated outlets, and iranian sources speaking to western and regional media are presenting the possible mou as conditional on us concessions and continued iranian leverage. Irgc-affiliated reporting has identified frozen assets, sanctions relief, the naval blockade, lebanon, and the strait of hormuz as the main unresolved issues. This is every issue in the first stage of the agreement, before talks on the nuclear program. Mediators appear to be trying to preserve momentum toward a us-iran mou by sequencing unresolved issues and developing technical arrangements for the strait of hormuz, but iranian reporting suggests that iran has rejected efforts to defer its core demands. Iran appears to believe that it is negotiating from a stronger position than the united states and is accordingly attempting to remake the regional order in a way that benefits iran. Iran has not publicly accepted meaningful nuclear concessions in the possible mou, and iran believes that the draft defers nuclear talks until after iran secures relief from military and economic pressure. Iranian officials have stated that the us-iran mou must end the war “on all fronts,” including in lebanon. The united states supports continued israeli operations against hezbollah, however, to prevent threats to israel. Israeli officials have reportedly called on the united states to allow the israel defense forces (idf) to continue its operations in lebanon, in accordance with the current temporary ceasefire in lebanon, and president trump agreed with this position. Hezbollah officials have continuously reiterated that the group will continue to engage the idf in southern lebanon and launch attacks against northern israel until the idf completely halts its activity in lebanon and withdraws from southern lebanese territory. Read the full report, may 24, 2026: https://understandingwar.org/researc...t-may-24-2026/ |
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